The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[PlatnumRoyce]

5 hours ago, Arlborn said:

while they saw GOG3 as its own thing, kinda? That's the vibe I'm getting anyway.

Yeah, I think you're correctly describing the opinions of the subsection of this board who are making OW estimates of ~$80M Domestic. However, I just think there's a clear contradiction here. Captain Marvel peaked at roughly the 25th highest grossing film of all time. By default it should conceptually have a way to stand "as it's own thing" instead of akin to worst performing MCU sub-franchise. I just don't see people's lowering the bar comments really grappling with that crazy amazing box office run. It's nearly a 50% decrease in OW! That's much bigger than a franchise vibes effect. 

 

 

Not to be hyperbolic but unless this is a pure bet against The Marvel's quality (which you flag as a reasonable possibility I wasn't thinking about), I really this sort of $80M OW prediction commits the speaker to either commit to the idea Captain Marvel was never that big of an "IP" or to just say this looks like an absolutely massive failure. That's just well below what you could reasonable credit to just "generic status of the MCU penalty."  

 

Captain Marvel was clearly positioned as a major anchor of the MCUs lineup, providing the reason to watch 2 high budget D+ shows (Ms. Marvel & Secret Invasion), and having a significant easter egg in a third one (Wandavision). It's also apparently directly connecting to the "core Avengers 4 storyline" involving the multiverse. If it opens that low alongside secret invasion and Ms Marvel's streaming weaknesses, it's really hard to see how this doesn't look like a failure. Since people aren't arguing that, the only other reasonable interpretation I see is to argue for CM always having a significantly lower baseline level of interest. 

 

Again, this really is all conditional on something with a far from certain chance of being true. I just don't think people are acknowledging just how bad their "reasonable but low" numbers are. ~100M is just vastly different from ~80M given prior MCU films without even taking into effect inflation and/or covid effects. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce
clarified D+ shows

[SpiderByte]

20 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Captain Marvel was clearly positioned as a major anchor of the MCUs lineup, providing the reason to watch 2 high budget D+ shows

I'm sorry, but it's a hell of a reach to claim Monica was positioned as the major reason to watch WandaVision.

[PlatnumRoyce]

20 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm sorry, but it's a hell of a reach to claim Monica was positioned as the major reason to watch WandaVision.

I agree! I'm referencing Ms. Marvel & Secret Invasion.  She's the "a significant easter egg in a third" which probably undersells her role as a decent sized supporting character. Fury's a significant part of Captain Marvel franchise: both in the first one and, as clear by the trailers, also in The Marvels. Secret Invasion ties directly into CM1 and presumably has or at one point had a direct lead-in for The Marvels (I never watched the show but have a brief plot summary level grasp of it).

 

Based on literally nothing other than reportedly how the show starts/ends, I suspect that the initial plan could have been to have The Marvels lead into Secret Invasion ("was in space, now going to earth to see how its changed/how he's out of the loop" seems like the elevator pitch).

Edited October 10, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Human]

This might be the least toxic "toxic thread" I have ever seen.

 

I think it opens to just under 90M.  

[Bob Train]

I wonder if this thread can get to 200 page count before the movie releases. Would be the first for any movie since The Flash. I wonder why all these CBMs attract more attention, both positive and negative, than all the other blockbusters Hollywood puts out.

[HummingLemon496]

Don't worry The Marvels will open to $120m just trust the process

[Derpity]

4 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Something something MCU fatigue, delusional fanboys, fight for true cinema.

 

 

https://x.com/deadline/status/1711476620824121588?s=61&t=IxAPf6aOIGwNVv2fD812oQ

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/loki-season-2-premiere-viewership-disney-1235568080/

 

Seems like a big difference to me. Loki is a beloved character and season 1 was really good. Whereas The Marvels looks pretty bad.

[emoviefan]

27 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I wonder if this thread can get to 200 page count before the movie releases. Would be the first for any movie since The Flash. I wonder why all these CBMs attract more attention, both positive and negative, than all the other blockbusters Hollywood puts out.

You mean how people around here seem to talk the most about a genre of movies , they claim they  are sick of and want to see far less of, , more than anything else. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Honestly? @TheFlatLannister's armchair $40M projection doesn't sound all that crazy to me. Granted, the final number will most likely be around Eternals's opening unless reviews are Dark Knight-level, but with the beating the Marvel brand has received these past couple of years as well as the general disinterest for this one I'm seeing so far... nothing's off the table anymore. This year especially has been brutal for long-in-the-tooth franchises, and I'd argue Marvel is slowly getting there as well. Again, it's still highly unlikely to open that low. But it's not completely impossible, I guess.

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Honestly? @TheFlatLannister's armchair $40M projection doesn't sound all that crazy to me. Granted, the final number will most likely be around Eternals's opening unless reviews are Dark Knight-level, but with the beating the Marvel brand has received these past couple of years as well as the general disinterest for this one I'm seeing so far... nothing's off the table anymore. This year especially has been brutal for long-in-the-tooth franchises, and I'd argue Marvel is slowly getting there as well. Again, it's still highly unlikely to open that low. But it's not completely impossible, I guess.

I trust @Relevation's armchair $120m OW prediction even more

[Dominic Draper]

I'll just be happy when I never have to see the trailer again.

 

It's replaced gran turismo trailer. It's in front of every single movie I see, doesn't matter the genre. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

*Tickets aren't even on sale yet*

"We're on an even lower level than Eternals, I say, with no reasoning whatsoever!"

I think I have earned it to say at this point.

Ofc I can be wrong but The Marvels is the lowest I have felt for a MCU film in like ever. 

[toutvabien]

How many hours left till tickets go on sale?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Waiting for tickets to go on sale is like in Majora’s Mask when it’s the final day and the clock is onscreen ticking. 

[Willowra]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think I have earned it to say at this point.

Ofc I can be wrong but The Marvels is the lowest I have felt for a MCU film in like ever. 

If this does less than Eternals WW or even less than $500m then RIP box office of Kang Dynasty in advance.

 

 

[Arlborn]

41 minutes ago, Willowra said:

If this does less than Eternals WW or even less than $500m then RIP box office of Kang Dynasty in advance.

 

 

If it does Eternals numbers (I doubt it but let’s speculate), they’ll just have to completely change their plans for this character, no way around it, just like they quietly put Eternals in the fridge.

 

Heck, if that happens they might as well be blunt about it and put Deadpool and Loki as leaders, now that would be a fun desperate move!

 

(again, I am only having a bit of a laugh, this ain’t happening)

[Willowra]

9 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

If it does Eternals numbers (I doubt it but let’s speculate), they’ll just have to completely change their plans for this character, no way around it, just like they quietly put Eternals in the fridge.

 

Heck, if that happens they might as well be blunt about it and put Deadpool and Loki as leaders, now that would be a fun desperate move!

 

(again, I am only having a bit of a laugh, this ain’t happening)

They won't change the plan; they are stubborn. They don't give shit about internet perceptions and narratives. They didn't recast T'Challa, even when their fans wanted it. Their best option was to project Captain Marvel as a big character; that would have assured a $550m minimum at box office; now let's see how much this makes at box office.

[WorkingonaName]

https://imgflip.com/i/822806

[SpiderByte]

The next 4 weeks:

 

"10 minute in at 6am and no sellouts! BOMB CONFIRMED, Avengers 5 under 400 WW locked for some reason"

 

And then it'll have good walk-ups and open at like 80 ish

 

Anyways new featurette

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

"10 minute in at 6am and no sellouts! BOMB CONFIRMED, Avengers 5 under 400 WW locked"

 

And then it'll have good walk-ups and open at like 80 ish

80 would be a disaster. It would probably barely cross $400m globally, if it legs out like WF.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Bob Train