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Eric S'ennui

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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Gotham Awards share some overlap with critic voters and New York votes this week. 

 

Feeling

 

Film: Licorice Pizza (Power of the Dog)

Director: Jane Campion, Power of the Dog (PTA, Licorice Pizza)

Actor: Denzel Washington, Macbeth (Nic Cage, Pig)

Actress: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter)

Supporting Actor: No clue. Anyone from Richard Ayoade to Jeffrey Wright to Vincent Lindon to Troy Kotsur

Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Passing (Kathryn Hunter, Macbeth)

Screenplay: The Souvenir Part 2 (Licorice Pizza)

Animated Film: Mitchells vs the Machines (Belle)

Cinematography: Power of the Dog (Green Knight/Macbeth)

Nonfiction: Flee (The Velvet Underground)

Foreign: The Worst Person in the World (Drive My Car)

First Film: The Lost Daughter (Pig)

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12 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

The Lost Daughter dominated the Gothams winning Feature, Actress (Colman), Screenplay and Debut Feature

 

Troy Kotsur from CODA won Supporting Performance, I think he's a sleeper Oscar nominee


The Lost Daughter is definitely a big winner here and has better chances for getting into Adapted and Actress! For everything else, the wins certainly can’t hurt.

 

Troy Kotsur’s win and Emilia Jones’s breakthrough performance win are both going to help CODA, especially since Apple now realizes that the film is worth campaigning for throughout the season. They have the money to push CODA forward, and they’re gonna spend it! Supporting Actor is so weak and unpredictable that critics and indie awards will definitely help Kotsur at least get close; Paul Raci getting in last time is a sign that voters are willing to give lesser known actors a chance in the category, and could especially happen in a weak field.

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FWIW West Side Story just skyrocketed on GoldDerby and tied for fifth in odds with Licorice Pizza, and Ariana DeBose is sixth for Supporting Actress just behind Marlee Matlin for Coda. Spielberg is now fifth.

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https://deadline.com/2021/12/national-board-of-review-names-paul-thomas-anderson-his-licorice-pizza-as-best-director-film-1234883672/

 

Quote

Below is a full list of the 2021 award recipients, announced by the National Board of Review:

Best Film: LICORICE PIZZA
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA
Best Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD
Best Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY
Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST
Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD
Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA
Best Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG
Best Animated Feature: ENCANTO
Best Foreign Language Film: A HERO
Best Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
Best Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL
Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE

 

Top Films (in alphabetical order)

Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
Red Rocket
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

 

Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)

Benedetta
Lamb
Lingui, The Sacred Bonds
Titane
The Worst Person in the World

 

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)

Ascension
Attica
Flee
The Rescue
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)

The Card Counter
C’mon C’mon
CODA
The Green Knight
Holler
Jockey
Old Henry
Pig
Shiva Baby
The Souvenir Part II

 

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Usually, around 3-4 NBR's top10, end without a BP Oscar nom. Last year they even snubbed The Father, Trial of Chicago 7, Ma Rainey's, and Mank. And in 2019 they didn't put Joker and Little Women in their top10.

 

This year I would say that Red Rocket, Last Duel, and Nightmare Alley are in the weakest position from NBR's top10. Power of the dog and Being the Ricardos are still in a solid position.

 

Let's see what happens!

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I didn't predict it but Gaga is a very NY choice like Maria Bakalova, Lupita and Tiffany Haddish. Don't think she'll get into Oscars, though.

 

Full NYFCC winners:

Film- Drive My Car

Director- Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Actor- Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Supporting Actor- Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Actress- Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Supporting Actress- Kathryn Hunter, Macbeth

Screenplay- Licorice Pizza

Cinematography- West Side Story

Non-fiction- Flee

Foreign- The Worst Person in the World

Animated: Mitchells vs the Machines

First Film: The Lost Daughter

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DC Critics Winners:

 

Best Film:
Belfast

Best Director:
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Best Actor:
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick...BOOM!)

Best Actress:
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Best Supporting Actor:
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Best Supporting Actress:
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Best Acting Ensemble:
Mass

Best Youth Performance:
Woody Norman (C'mon C'mon)

Best Voice Performance:
Awkwafina (Raya and the Last Dragon)

Best Original Screenplay:
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Best Animated Feature:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Best Documentary:
Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best International/Foreign Language Film:
Drive My Car

Best Production Design:
Patrice Vermette, Production Designer; Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Set Decorators (Dune)

Best Cinematography:
Greig Fraser, ASC, ACS (Dune)

Best Editing:
Myron Kerstein, ACE; Andrew Weisblum, ACE (tick, tick...BOOM!)

Best Original Score:
Hans Zimmer (Dune)

 

http://www.wafca.com/awards/

 

 

 

Detroit Critic Winners:

 

BEST PICTURE

  • Winner: Cyrano

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Winner: Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick…BOOM!

BEST ACTOR

  • Winner: Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

BEST ACTRESS

  • Winner: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Winner: Jon Bernthal, King Richard

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

BEST ENSEMBLE

  • Winner: The French Dispatch

BEST BREAKTHROUGH

  • Winners: Woody Norman, Actor (C’mon C’mon) / Emma Seligman, Writer/Director (Shiva Baby)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Winner: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • Winners: Flee / Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Winner: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

BEST USE OF MUSIC/SOUND

  • Winner: Last Night in Soho

 

https://detroitfilmcritics.com/detroit-film-critics-society-announce-2021-awards/#more-3726

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I saw this coming the moment the movie was announced. The reactions seemed pretty generic so didn't put much weight into them.

 

 

So no major contender for amazon this year I guess, with this failing and their garbage release strat for A Hero (which could've been this years foreign film contender had amazon pushed it more)

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PICTURE:

Belfast

Don't Look Up (unless it is panned worse than Vice)

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Power of the Dog

Tick Tick Boom (sleeper hit of the year)

West Side Story

 

2 spots between:

Cmon Cmon- great audience scores and A24 but might be too underseen/niche

Coda- Sundance crowdpleaser. Supporting Actor contender. Screenplay nom

House of Gucci- mixed reviews to say the least but 2 possible acting nominees and commercially successful

Macbeth- A24 and Coen with Denzel and Frances sounds good on paper but campaign seems to be lacking

Nightmare Alley- disappointing reviews and likely disappointing box office but it's prestige and Searchlight

 

Long shots:

Drive My Car- NYFCC win is good exposure but it's still a 3 hour international drama from weak distributor 

French Dispatch- widely seen but Wes Anderson's Hateful 8

Last Duel- the box office probably took it out of running

Lost Daughter- Netflix has more to handle and might be too artsy/alienating for BP

No Time To Die- reviews weren't amazing but one of the biggest hits of the year; technical noms

Spencer- underperformed at box office and mixed audience scores due to artsiness of tone

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