2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

10 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

If it can't reach those numbers it would be a disappointment given the fact that it was pretty well received. Then again, I've already been disappointed at the box office several times this year so why should Shazam treat me any differently 

I could also see maybe Black Adam misfiring which wouldn't exactly help Shazam or DC's case

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

My predictions for the rest of 2022:

1. Avatar 2 - $675M
2. Thor Love and Thunder - $450M

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $375M

4. Black Adam - $200M

5. Shazam! Fury of the Gods - $190M
6. Puss in Boots 2 - $185M

7 .DC League of Super-Pets - $130M
8. Bullet Train - $115M

9. Nope - $110M

10. Creed 3 - $100M

Bonus:

11. "Halloween Ends" - $95-110M

12. Don't Worry Darling - $85-100M (maybe I'm overestimating this one, but the demand looks more than decent)

13. The Fabelmans - $75-100M

14. I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $70-100M

 

Do you guys think any other film stands a chance of grossing more than $100M? Maybe Babylon in wide release?
 

Creed 3 is a 2023 release now.

 

Might as well put Strange World in its slot since its the big Thanksgiving weekend release by default.

[Juby]

14 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

10. Creed 3 - $100M

 

Not in 2022 anymore.

 

11 hours ago, cmbbox2390 said:

I really don’t get your Black Panther: Wakanda Forever prediction. We have never seen a MCU film drop that low from its predecessor. In fact, the only MCU film to drop from its prequel film was Avengers: Age of Ultron

 

Iron Man 2 also droped from the first one. This is also the first time sequel doesn't have the main star of the first film. I also think this prediction is deffinetly too low, but yeah, BP2 will drop much, maybe more than AoU.

 

 

[Juan Caballo]

10 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Fall predictions

 

SEPT:

Salem's Lot- 75m

Don't Worry Darling- 90m (could go even higher?)

Bros- 100m

Smile- 35m

 

OCT:

Lyle- BOMB

Halloween Ends- 105m

Black Adam- 160m

Ticket To Paradise- 65m (higher?)

 

NOV:

Amsterdam- 40m

Black Panther- 525m

Fabelmans- 70m

Strange World- TBD. Let's go like 150? Idk...

 

DEC:

Avatar 2- 600m

Shazam- 150m

Puss in Boots- 115m

I Wanna Dance With Somebody- 60m

Man Called Otto- 30m

 

Others:

Babylon- 85m

Banshees of Iniershin- 10m

Bones and All- 15m

The Menu- 25m

See How They Run- 10m

Spoiler Alert- 12m

TAR- 10m

Till- 8m

Women Talking- 20m

I think you're really overestimating Bros. 

 

I think Smile could be a breakout. I think the trailer caught people by surprise and it kinda blew up. 

 

Based on your list, my SEPT:

 

Salem's Lot - 80M

Don't Worry Darling - 104M

Bros - 55M

Smile - 42M

 

 

[cmbbox2390]

2 hours ago, Juby said:

 

Not in 2022 anymore.

 

 

Iron Man 2 also droped from the first one. This is also the first time sequel doesn't have the main star of the first film. I also think this prediction is deffinetly too low, but yeah, BP2 will drop much, maybe more than AoU.

 

 

Oh yeah I forgot about the Iron Man 2 2% drop, basically flat.

 

Again, I think it’s best to wait to see the trailer before we make judgments. I remember BP2 placing #1 on Fandango’s most anticipated movies list of 2022. That was AFTER Chadwick Boseman’s death and before any footage was shown. Not saying that it’s evidence that BP2 will be #1 domestically at the box office, but it does show that there are still tons of people looking forward to this.

Edited July 2, 2022 by cmbbox2390

[jedijake]

BP2 placed at #1 on Fandango earlier this year. This is precedent because not only did we lose the main title character actor, but there won't be the main title character at all. Has this ever been done before? We've never had a James Bond movie without James Bond or an Indiana Jones movie without Indiana Jones.

 

There may still be people out there who still expect someone else to be playing T'Challa. I can definitely see a 70+% drop from the first one. I have a feeling it's going to be crushed by critics.

[Geveeso]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

I can definitely see a 70+% drop from the first one.

... you think Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is going to do $210 million DOM and $400 million WW?

 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

7 hours ago, Juby said:

 

Not in 2022 anymore.

 

 

Iron Man 2 also droped from the first one. This is also the first time sequel doesn't have the main star of the first film. I also think this prediction is deffinetly too low, but yeah, BP2 will drop much, maybe more than AoU.

 

 

 

Plus there is literally zero hype, among the MCU fans and people in LA overall. It's 4 months away but we know that many films with no footage/posters got so much hype almost a year in advance. No big stars, too many MCU releases this year, and the effect first one had for the cultural reasons has come and gone...

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

7 hours ago, Juan Caballo said:

I think you're really overestimating Bros. 

 

I think Smile could be a breakout. I think the trailer caught people by surprise and it kinda blew up. 

 

Based on your list, my SEPT:

 

Salem's Lot - 80M

Don't Worry Darling - 104M

Bros - 55M

Smile - 42M

 

 

I don't think I'm overestimating Bros. Apatow brand is still consistent theatrically. It's a comedy that appeals to and targets a marginalized group ala Crazy Rich Asians. It will likely have TIFF buzz from a premiere and Oct isn't too competitive for it. In 2019, Good Boys did 83 around August so raunchy comedy can thrive

Edited July 2, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, Geveeso said:

... you think Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is going to do $210 million DOM and $400 million WW?

 

CRAP!!!!! I did it again and f@#$%ed up my post. (I have not been feeling well-excuses excuses). I meant that I can see it MAKING 70% of the first one. Maybe even slightly less. It depends on reactions and how receptive people are to not having the actual title character.

 

@ViktorLosAngelesI'm not worried about the lack of hype. Sure, No Way Home had TONS of hype before 4 months. But Thor4 had NO hype before 2-3 months. After Thor gets time to stretch its legs, it's going to be ALL about Black Panther 2. The reception will be the key, not the pre-teaser hype.

 

 

[cmbbox2390]

8 hours ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

 

Plus there is literally zero hype, among the MCU fans and people in LA overall. It's 4 months away but we know that many films with no footage/posters got so much hype almost a year in advance. No big stars, too many MCU releases this year, and the effect first one had for the cultural reasons has come and gone...

That’s what a lot of people on here said about the first one too…

[MattW]

June ended really strong, 968.8 is 84.7% of the 2016-2019 average june grosses. First half of the year 63.4%. 

July to me looks like it'll come in just a bit under June's gross, 925 or so, which would be 73% of the previous average.

[M37]

On 7/1/2022 at 7:53 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You're correct and this is a great point but I will always take the under on DC lol. I know Shazam was generally well-received but still not sure it developed enough of a universal fanbase for Avatar and holiday spillover? It's still a sequel, unlike Aquaman, in 2018. 

Shazam is similar to Sonic IMO, both generally well received by GA, and total  DOM increased by 36% for the sequel. That would be $190M for Shazam 2, but with holiday period boost, over $200M is easily achievable, maybe $250 if it can match the first opening weekend of $50M

[stripe]

11 hours ago, MattW said:

June ended really strong, 968.8 is 84.7% of the 2016-2019 average june grosses. First half of the year 63.4%. 

July to me looks like it'll come in just a bit under June's gross, 925 or so, which would be 73% of the previous average.

 

I expect bigger numbers for July. Around 1,100M. First month to reach the billion mark.

 

In fact just the sum of Thor and Minions July grosses can very well be over 700M

 

Add 100M from TG2, 60M from Elvis, 40-50M from JWD, 30M from BP. And July is already over your 925M prediction. 

 

Then there are some possible breakouts (Nope, Crawdads, which combined should add 100M+ inJuly), and there are two animated films that can add 50M.

 

 

 

[ViktorLosAngeles]

Do you guys think that "Avatar 2" will be released in more than 5,000 theaters, therefore becoming the film with the widest release of all time.

[lilmac]

I guess this counts as a prediction but I can see this year us getting an announcement that there will be an Elden Ring movie. 

Edited July 7, 2022 by lilmac

[IronJimbo]

8 hours ago, lilmac said:

I guess this counts as a prediction but I can see this year us getting an announcement that there will be an Elden Ring movie. 

 

if the main character says a single line of dialogue they should not go forwards with this

[MCKillswitch123]

Yearly rankings:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water - $800 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick - $700 million
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $600 million
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $410 million
5. Jurassic World: Dominion - $380 million
6. The Batman - $370 million
7. Minions: The Rise of Gru - $350 million
8. Thor: Love and Thunder - $330 million
9. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $190 million
10. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - $170 million
11. DC League of Super Pets - $150 million
12. Uncharted - $148 million
13. Babylon - $145 million
14. Black Adam - $140 million
15. Elvis - $130 million
16. Ticket to Paradise - $130 million
17. Shazam! Fury of the Gods - $125 million
18. Lightyear - $120 million
19. I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $120 million
20. Bullet Train - $110 million
21. The Lost City - $105 million
22. Nope - $102 million
23. Don't Worry Darling - $100 million

Edited July 9, 2022 by MCKillswitch123

[ViktorLosAngeles]

While "Top Gun" is pulling amazing numbers, $650 million will probably be the amount it will end its run with. $700 million is really a stretch. As for "Avatar 2", I think we're all going a little crazy here. $800 million? Is there really such a strong fan base + the new interest? To me it looks more likely to hit $600-700 million.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yearly rankings:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water - $800 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick - $700 million
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $600 million
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $410 million
5. Jurassic World: Dominion - $380 million
6. The Batman - $370 million
7. Minions: The Rise of Gru - $350 million
8. Thor: Love and Thunder - $330 million
9. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $190 million
10. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - $170 million
11. DC League of Super Pets - $150 million
12. Uncharted - $148 million
13. Babylon - $145 million
14. Black Adam - $140 million
15. Elvis - $130 million
16. Ticket to Paradise - $130 million
17. Shazam! Fury of the Gods - $125 million
18. Lightyear - $120 million
19. I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $120 million
20. Bullet Train - $110 million
21. The Lost City - $105 million
22. Nope - $102 million
23. Don't Worry Darling - $100 million

130 for Ticket To Paradise seems a but much

 

145 for Babylon is also crazy. That's more than Wolf of Wall Street