BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[druv10]

Fantastic preview numbers. 100M OW isn't quite dead yet like some folks are saying.

 

13.2M

30M

32M

25M

100.2M

[filmlover]

Spider-Man: Homecoming also pulled a $15M Thursday less than 48 hours after 4th of July ended en route to a $117M overall weekend. Of course, that (and the opening weekend for every other MCU movie) was also a theater-exclusive release so we're in uncharted territory here.

[WrathOfHan]

100M isn't dead, but I'm expecting something closer to 87-90M now.

 

I also don't think we're getting a 100M OW until Spider-Man unless Eternals or NTTD over perform. Tbh, I'm fairly surprised how unenthused my audience was by the Shang-Chi trailer last night; I'm starting to think that might be more of an Ant-Man level grosser

Edited July 9, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[fabiopazzo2]

20 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Yeah, we're not in triple digit territory quite yet. Those projections always seemed overly optimistic to me. It's a simultaneous streaming release, certain Asian territories are not fully reopening just yet, and it's only been a couple of weeks since F9.

 

The first triple digit launch of the new era will likely be No Way Home, no doubt the most highly anticipated Marvel film right now.

For This year for sure, no doubt. 2021 is more a normal year for The Mcu.

 

next year we will have many sequel, all of them should open over 100M easily 

[fabiopazzo2]

6 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Fantastic preview numbers. 100M OW isn't quite dead yet like some folks are saying.

 

13.2M

30M

32M

25M

100.2M

[druv10]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

Yep, for Friday 30M is the O/U for hope. 

[Joyous Legion]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Even better then. I thought it did $85m. 
 

You’re hyperbolic and setting a high bar so that you can act disappointed. 
 

Black Widow beating that film, with all the benefits AM&tW had, compared to everything BW has going against it, is amazing. 
 

As you were. 

AM&tW opened very low for an MCU film, just like AM1. I set realistic bars so I’m disappointed about half the time. I still think this is going around 90, which would be quite solid considering everything, but if it goes below 85 that’s a little disappointing and there’s no way to get around that by trying to have artificially low expectations imo.

[MrPink]

In the Deadline article is Thursday Numbers

 

F9 - 2.2m

Boss Baby - 1.94

Forever Purge - 1.43

 

Seems F9 will probably stay above double digits this weekend? Assuming F9 already took a large brunt of Black Widow taking its screens/demand over yesterday.

[grey ghost]

How did Cruella do on Friday/Saturday/Sunday in relation to its previews?

 

That was a hybrid release.

 

So was GvK.

[filmlover]

Just now, MrPink said:

In the Deadline article is Thursday Numbers

 

F9 - 2.2m

Boss Baby - 1.94

Forever Purge - 1.43

 

Seems F9 will probably stay above double digits this weekend? Assuming F9 already took a large brunt of Black Widow taking its screens/demand over yesterday.

4th of July weekend probably hurt all movies more than it would have otherwise last weekend considering celebrations came back when there were none last year. The return of all holidays this year will likely cause noticeable drops on days like Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve as well (although Black Friday and Christmas Day have always been much more popular days for moviegoing in general so the impact should be minimal).

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

4th of July weekend probably hurt all movies more than it would have otherwise last weekend considering celebrations came back when there were none last year. The return of all holidays this year will likely cause noticeable drops on days like Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve as well (although Black Friday and Christmas Day have always been much more popular days for moviegoing in general so the impact should be minimal).

 

Yeah I'm thinking the movies' holds this week are going to look pretty decent all things considered because 4th of July just really depressed turnout throughout the weekend.

[Cmasterclay]

I'm curious - what were people predicting for Black Widow pre-pandemic? I had it at $115m, but I've seen some people say as high as $140m.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm curious - what were people predicting for Black Widow pre-pandemic? I had it at $115m, but I've seen some people say as high as $140m.

Between the Endgame goodwill and Scarlett having a good moment in the industry (she was coming off of that movie plus double Oscar noms) I think it could've pulled a debut in the $120M range had it made its original May 1 release date last year.

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm curious - what were people predicting for Black Widow pre-pandemic? I had it at $115m, but I've seen some people say as high as $140m.

Checking back on my old Controversial Predix thread with Han, I put in like 130M for the opening weekend. Probably in like March or April 2020 in normal times I probably would have predicted like 125M, on its way to a Ragnarok/Homecoming-style gross

[Joyous Legion]

Around 130 iirc. 

[Mr Terrific]

I can’t remember if I posted something different, but $100-$120m seems right. 
The whole presumed lack of interest for a prequel/dead character thought undercut the positives some for me. 

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

I can’t remember if I posted something different, but $100-$120m seems right. 
The whole presumed lack of interest for a prequel/dead character thought undercut the positives some for me. 

That was always my thing with it. MCU brand probably would carry anything past 100 right after Endgame, but idk how this would have interest on par with a Spider-Man movie!

[Cap]

39 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How did Cruella do on Friday/Saturday/Sunday in relation to its previews?

 

That was a hybrid release.

 

So was GvK.

I think those are different animals.
 

The MCU previews are really Events. I would liken them more to a local comic book/fandom meet up. I will always remember a couple years ago my friend put it really succinctly: he said, “it’s no different than picking up the comic books on Wednesday. Every six months, we get a new Marvel released to go watch.” It’s less about the title, and more about seeing it together with the fans. 

What the 13.2M says to me is the core MCU fandom is still in tack. This is particularly great for Phase 4 when we don’t have the what is going happen next/omg I need to know the ending before Twitter spoils it mania that was driving opening weekends in Phase 3.

 

The REAL test will be this weekend to see how many casuals roll up to the box office for tickets. 

 

32 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm curious - what were people predicting for Black Widow pre-pandemic? I had it at $115m, but I've seen some people say as high as $140m.

I had 55M before the pandemic. And I had 55M during the pandemic. (Lol my expectations for this film were always 🤷‍♀️).

[Cmasterclay]

I think Spider-Man if the rumors are true will be fairly huge (400m if we don't get another virus surge) and Thor 4 will be huge because that's a true A-Lister within the MCU, and BP2 will be huge because of sheer curiosity. The other MCU movies, even including Captain Marvel, Dr. Strange, and GOTG, are bound to see a drop as the franchise gets further from Endgame and true urgency. 

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Spider-Man if the rumors are true will be fairly huge (400m if we don't get another virus surge) and Thor 4 will be huge because that's a true A-Lister within the MCU, and BP2 will be huge because of sheer curiosity. The other MCU movies, even including Captain Marvel, Dr. Strange, and GOTG, are bound to see a drop as the franchise gets further from Endgame and true urgency. 

I think Strange will increase after WandaVision. Maybe not to 300M, but I think 250M+ is doable.