BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[titanic2187]

Assuming BW can hit 90m, although I am still hoping 100m. This weekend can generate as high as 130m-135m from all films. The first 100m weekend since mid-Feb (Sonic's opening).  In fact, even if we put this weekend in 2019 & 2018 summer, the number actually look pretty normal like a pre-pandemic summer weekend, although at the lower-end. Finally we need no excuses to justify blah blah blah market underperforming....and can have some balls.   

Edited July 9, 2021 by titanic2187

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

40m Friday per DL

 

It meant including previews.

[lorddemaxus]

If it's exactly 40 mil prev+Friday, I'm going with 85.9 mil OW.

Edited July 9, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

If it's exactly 40 mil prev+Friday, I'm going with 85.9 mil OW.

Posted this in the tracking thread but I think they are being conservative. For F9 they said 29.5 million. For this they are giving the vague "40+" million. Maybe wishful thinking on my part, we'll see. 

[Legion Again]

40 is about what I was expecting anyway, should take us to 88+  

 

41 would be a lot nicer than 39 though 😛 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I was expecting 40 at the beginning of today but based on MTC numbers I think it's likely to go higher, like 42-43. But we are in early afternoon and the evening will tell the tale. 

 

Edit: Was trying to be cautious but I guess I can't resist being optimistic. I think 42-43 is likely based on some quick comparisons to F9. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Menor

[fabiopazzo2]

Give me 43M !!!

 

👺

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

I was expecting 40 at the beginning of today but based on MTC numbers I think it's likely to go higher, like 42-43. But we are in early afternoon and the evening will tell the tale. 

 

Edit: Was trying to be cautious but I guess I can't resist being optimistic. I think 42-43 is likely based on some quick comparisons to F9. 

I think 40m will happen. My expectation was 28m friday which translates to 41.3m friday. Could go higher for sure. Let us see how things go in the evening east coast. But 450K+ in MTC is happening. If 500K happens 30m friday will happen. 

[babz06]

5 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

See I would have been very happy with 100m OW but we have to be practical. 

We are still in pandemic, it's not over yet plus this movie is already too late for its own good. 

This could easily be big overperformance, we don't know how other movies this year will play out. 

Honestly, Venom 2 is the only one that has outside chance of doing 100m before NWH. 

you dont think The Eternals has a better chance? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think 40m will happen. My expectation was 28m friday which translates to 41.3m friday. Could go higher for sure. Let us see how things go in the evening east coast. But 450K+ in MTC is happening. If 500K happens 30m friday will happen. 

I think 470k at MTC1 and 380k at MTC2 is quite possible. F9 had 355k and 300k so that translates into about 29.5 million. 

[TwoMisfits]

So,

Thurs $13.2M

Fri $26.8M+

 

According to midday Deadline...

[TwoMisfits]

36 minutes ago, Menor said:

I was expecting 40 at the beginning of today but based on MTC numbers I think it's likely to go higher, like 42-43. But we are in early afternoon and the evening will tell the tale. 

 

Edit: Was trying to be cautious but I guess I can't resist being optimistic. I think 42-43 is likely based on some quick comparisons to F9. 

 

Doesn't F9 sell the 10pms better?  Doesn't MCU skew older than F9, or have both bases grown up?

Edited July 9, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Doesn't F9 sell the 10pms better?  Doesn't MCU skew older than F9, or have both bases grown up?

Not sure about the age skew, but I was factoring in something of a pace ratio drop as we go into the night just based on the fact that BW has sold a lot more already. Obviously if it just really stalls out then it will go below what I said. But it didn't really do that yesterday so I don't think that will happen today. 

 

However, I think even if it falls below my expectations, it will still do pretty well. I don't see it dropping below 40 (26.8 True Friday) whatsoever and that will still be pretty good. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Menor

[titanic2187]

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-opening-weekend-box-office-1234789473/

 

Quote

There’s also Tropical Storm Elsa which is dumping water and flooding streets in New York and Connecticut.

Sound like a good plot for Frozen 3, only this round the rains didn't get frozen .

[RRA]

1 hour ago, Cap said:

Basically this. But now you have all of that + Pratt’s politics. I don’t think they are as shinny as they used to be. 
 

That hypocritically said, I would die for Rocket. 

Not a fan of his politics, but I doubt most people outside of our movie culture care.* Let's remember when Pratt's father-in-law was the biggest star on the planet, his politics back then weren't exactly a secret. 

 

*=I mean Tomorrow War (despite the lackluster reviews) had a big premiere on Amazon and sequel talks allegedly are happening. 

[Krissykins]

Just now, RRA said:

Not a fan of his politics, but I doubt most people outside of our movie culture care.* Let's remember when Pratt's father-in-law was the biggest star on the planet, his politics back then weren't exactly a secret. 

 

*=I mean Tomorrow War (despite the lackluster reviews) had a big premiere on Amazon and sequel talks allegedly are happening. 

I thought The Tomorrow War was quite entertaining for a daft Sunday night film. You just need to try and ignore Chris Pratt. I actually wish his character stayed at home and let Betty Gilpin’s go instead 😂

[RRA]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I thought The Tomorrow War was quite entertaining for a daft Sunday night film. You just need to try and ignore Chris Pratt. I actually wish his character stayed at home and let Betty Gilpin’s go instead 😂

Didn't work for me*, but I can see how others could enjoy that movie more. 

 

*=When you make ole ID4 look like a brainchild by comparison...

[Eric Duncan]

Yeah unless it's like a Mel Gibson or Roseanne kind of deal, most people, even those who regularly watch movies, don't give a rat's ass about actors and their political leanings. Even then, a wretched creep like M*rk W*hlberg is still getting major leading roles.

 

Whether or not that's a good thing is up to you of course.

[lorddemaxus]

Most people in Hollywood have bad politics. If people cared a lot about the politics of Hollywood actors, the popularity movies would've died ages ago.

Edited July 9, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[wildphantom]

I half enjoyed Tomorrow War, but felt like the sequel happened in the same movie! 
Pratt really doesn’t need to say yes to another, but maybe he’s contractually obliged. 

Widow’s apparent $40 million plus Friday is encouraging. Who would have thought pre-pandemic that it would be even possible for a film to open that big when people could pay to watch it at home on opening day. 

Cinema is over they told us! 
 

All we need now are some delightful leaked numbers on how mediocre the Disney+ figures are. Where’s Samba at?