BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[filmlover]

$100M is probably out of reach but $85-90M is looking likely, which is excellent given its availability to watch at home (even if it's being hidden behind a paywall).

[Eric Duncan]

Following Ant-Man and the Wasp gives it 87M. I guess with a bit more frontloading that puts it at around 85M. Bummer that 90M looks unlikely, but I'll take what I can get.

[Borobudur]

I am still having faith in 100m opening, we just need 7.6x for that threshold. 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Borobudur said:

I am still having faith in 100m opening, we just need 7.6x for that threshold. 

 

How many phase 2-3 MCU movies get that kinda multiplier - anyone know?

[fabiopazzo2]

Im still on The train of 100M 🥲

[Legion Again]

Oh well. Should end up pretty respectable from there. If true Fri also disappoints we’re gonna dip below the line though 👀

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Eric Belov said:

Following Ant-Man and the Wasp gives it 87M. I guess with a bit more frontloading that puts it at around 85M. Bummer that 90M looks unlikely, but I'll take what I can get.

ant man and the wasp, released on july 4 so that affected things plus that multi was rare for a marvel film , even captain marvel had a 7,6 multi

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

How many phase 2-3 MCU movies get that kinda multiplier - anyone know?

Not likely, that's the same multi as Homecoming which was in 2017 and didn't have PA. With summer and 5 PM previews that seems really really tough. 

 

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

ant man and the wasp, released on july 4 so that affected things plus that multi was rare for a marvel film , even captain marvel had a 7,6 multi

 

No, July 5, that said it was likely affected by proximity to the holiday. But Widow was a more hyped movie than Ant-Man and has PA so it may be a wash in the end. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Menor

[Krissykins]

Purge looking at a solid weekend hold then after a $1.43m Thursday. 

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

ant man and the wasp, released on july 4 so that affected things plus that multi was rare for a marvel film , even captain marvel had a 7,6 multi

No it didn't. It opened on July 6. Maybe I'm just missing something here, but I don't see why a movie opening two days after the Fourth would make things more frontloaded.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Yeah, we're not in triple digit territory quite yet. Those projections always seemed overly optimistic to me. It's a simultaneous streaming release, certain Asian territories are not fully reopening just yet, and it's only been a couple of weeks since F9.

 

The first triple digit launch of the new era will likely be No Way Home, no doubt the most highly anticipated Marvel film right now.

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Oh well. Should end up pretty respectable from there. If true Fri also disappoints we’re gonna dip below the line though 👀

 

Why would Black Widow opening just under Ant Man and the Wasp be “below” whatever line you’re talking about? 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp had a holiday weekend, the first film after Endgame, no pandemic and no at-home option. 
 

Let’s have some common sense please. 

[Eric Duncan]

 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Why would Black Widow opening just under Ant Man and the Wasp be “below” whatever line you’re talking about? 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp had a holiday weekend, the first film after Endgame, no pandemic and no at-home option. 
 

Let’s have some common sense please. 

You seem confused. AM&tW was mid 70s, this isn’t even close to missing that. And if it did somehow, it would be atrocious.  
 

Let’s have some common sense please

[john2000]

by the way just saw a quite place 2 pretty great, but i prefer the first one 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

That first Saturday for ant-man 2  (and thus, any sort of Friday jump) was lower than usual. Take a look at all of the holdover Saturdays and they were lower than the weekend prior as well as the weekend after. People were inclined to take the 5th and 6th off work due to the holiday ending up on a Wednesday 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

13.2 and an 85-95 million weekend is excellent! The world is still recovering from the pandemic.  I hope people don’t lose sight of that by being so into 100M. I was in on 100M too and it still has a chance, but at this point, the movie is another huge win for Marvel. Can’t wait to see this tonight! Excited to see the Black Widow torch being passed to Yelena Belova. 

[Madhuvan]

See I would have been very happy with 100m OW but we have to be practical. 

We are still in pandemic, it's not over yet plus this movie is already too late for its own good. 

This could easily be big overperformance, we don't know how other movies this year will play out. 

Honestly, Venom 2 is the only one that has outside chance of doing 100m before NWH. 

[keysersoze123]

True impact of hybrid will be seen tomorrow. Families are the one who help with saturday increase. I am expecting a slight drop looking at Day 2 PS. That said the OD sales have started strong and so let us see how the day goes. 

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

You seem confused. AM&tW was mid 70s, this isn’t even close to missing that. And if it did somehow, it would be atrocious.  
 

Let’s have some common sense please

Even better then. I thought it did $85m. 
 

You’re hyperbolic and setting a high bar so that you can act disappointed. 
 

Black Widow beating that film, with all the benefits AM&tW had, compared to everything BW has going against it, is amazing. 
 

As you were.