The Suicide Squad Weekend Thread: 26.6M Opening Weekend, 35M OS | Jungle Cruise 15.7 (-55%), Old 4.1 (-40%), Widow 4 (-38%), Stillwater 2.9 (-45%)

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think these numbers are extrapolated on basis of 3M tracked. @Porthos may know more.

 

Yes, much like Nielsen, they are trying to come up with a national number based on their user base/panel.  I originally thought those numbers reported were just numbers that had Samba TV's tracking hooked up, as I that's what I had read on this forum before in prior discussions surrounding Samba TV, and I just went with it.  But after doing some research a week or so ago*, as well as seeing a 11m figure reported for the Opening Ceremonies, I quickly discovered that they to are trying to do something similar to Nielsen.

* Ironically enuf it was the discussion surrounding Samba TV's numbers surrounding Jungle Cruise that made me actually dig into Samba TV's methodology and thus discover that while it is using Samba TV's user base as a panel, they are attempting to make a national number out of it.

 

How accurate they are as well as how good their methodologies are, I leave to others as I ain't plugged in enough to comment.

 

I will echo what Eric said though.  Samba TV and Nielsen are measuring two separate things.  Samba TV is trying to figure out how many households actually watched something, without factoring in minutes watched nor repeat viewings, while Nielsen is trying to figure out how many minutes total is watched right down to the person.  So if a group of four watches The Suicide Squad all the way thought twice, that's still just one household viewing, but it'll be much higher minutes watched on Nielsen.

 

Since they are measuring two separate things and the methodologies are almost certainly different between the two systems, probably for the best to measure like-for-like and don't worry as much about cross comparing between Nielsen and Samba.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Porthos

[Barnack]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

I quickly discovered that they to are trying to do something similar to Nielsen.

I think there is major difference between the 2, Nielsen has a very small but attempt to be somewhat random and representative Nielsen home (like some thousand) and extrapolate for the country.

 

SambaTV are on like 20 brand of smartv and is tracking 20-40 millions TV and extrapoling that to the country by doing a small multiplier. The hooked up part is build in the sony, roku os, LG, etc... from what I understand

Edited August 10, 2021 by Barnack

[BK007]

10 hours ago, Napoleon said:

Samba TV numbers for the HBO Max same day releases:

 

Wonder Woman 1984 - 2.2 million

The Little Things - 1.4 million

Judas and the Black Messiah - 653k

Tom & Jerry - 1.2 million

Godzilla vs Kong - 2.6 million (3 days) / 3.6 million (5 days)

Mortal Kombat - 3.8 million

Those Who Wish Me Dead - 1.2 million

The Conjuring 3 - 1.6 million

In the Heights - 693k

Space Jam 2 - 2.1 million

The Suicide Squad - 2.8 million

 

Something to note is that a panel/userbase/etc. can be overindexing certain demos. Something like Mortal Kombat getting 3.8m seems like that. Normally you can't really tell until it happens whether the index is skewed. 

 

If anyone knows about App Annie, their metrics are all over the place. They have a panel as well, but wildly overestimates. 

 

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Yes, much like Nielsen, they are trying to come up with a national number based on their user base/panel.  I originally thought those numbers reported were just numbers that had Samba TV's tracking hooked up, as I that's what I had read on this forum before in prior discussions surrounding Samba TV, and I just went with it.  But after doing some research a week or so ago*, as well as seeing a 11m figure reported for the Opening Ceremonies, I quickly discovered that they to are trying to do something similar to Nielsen.

* Ironically enuf it was the discussion surrounding Samba TV's numbers surrounding Jungle Cruise that made me actually dig into Samba TV's methodology and thus discover that while it is using Samba TV's user base as a panel, they are attempting to make a national number out of it.

 

How accurate they are as well as how good their methodologies are, I leave to others as I ain't plugged in enough to comment.

 

I will echo what Eric said though.  Samba TV and Nielsen are measuring two separate things.  Samba TV is trying to figure out how many households actually watched something, without factoring in minutes watched nor repeat viewings, while Nielsen is trying to figure out how many minutes total is watched right down to the person.  So if a group of four watches The Suicide Squad all the way thought twice, that's still just one household viewing, but it'll be much higher minutes watched on Nielsen.

 

Since they are measuring two separate things and the methodologies are almost certainly different between the two systems, probably for the best to measure like-for-like and don't worry as much about cross comparing between Nielsen and Samba.

 

How does Nielsen know which demograhic is watching to properly attribute? 

 

and also given that these are from a sample - how is it no one who is part of it has ever found their way to one of these forums to give us the lowdown? Unless there's some kind of NDA or something.

[BK007]

Also btw 

 

Home video sales were up to $21b alone in the height of its popularity in 2003/2004.

 

Today's marketing including subscription streaming is only at $13b. So not only is it way down, but streaming is also eating into box office, pay TV windows etc. 

 

So for those still arguing that streaming makes the studios more money - that is definitely not the case. It's one product eating into everything else that generates revenue.

 

There will be an optimal point in the future, but day and date is not it. And Premiere Access will either shoot up dramatically in price or be remoulded into the familiar PVOD 24hr rental a few weeks into release that I think already exists. It'll probably be both. 

 

Or maybe studios start making movies for particular tiers - that might be the future of movies. Day and date is suicide. & once again this goes for traditional studios as opposed to Netflix, although even for the latter, they need to find a better balance in their content spend/quality, at least with regard to their movies. 

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, BK007 said:

Home video sales were up to $21b alone in the height of its popularity in 2003/2004.

 

Today's marketing including subscription streaming is only at $13b. So not only is it way down, but streaming is also eating into box office, pay TV windows etc. 

You got a source for this?

 

Because Netflix alone is going to be close to $30B in revenue this year, Disney streaming upwards of $16B, ViacomCBS streaming around $4B. On top of that you got Home Video (Physical media, Apple, Amazon, Vudu etc.) from the studios which should be at least a couple billion. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Jamiem

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, BK007 said:

How does Nielsen know which demograhic is watching to properly attribute? 

 

Via their People Meters, among other tools.  I did a decently deep dive on the subject over on the Streaming Tracking thread a while back:

 

 

 

52 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

and also given that these are from a sample - how is it no one who is part of it has ever found their way to one of these forums to give us the lowdown? Unless there's some kind of NDA or something.

 

We're not that big of a forum!  The current Nielsen "panel" is around 20k households, I think. 

 

*checks*

 

Here is a recent data sheet from Nielsen talking about their methodology.  (pg 5 has the relevant info where there is currently an overall pool of 37k households and an "effective sample size" of around 22k households)

 

Either way, I've known about "Nielsen Panels" nearly my entire adult life, though not all of exact the ins and outs of how it's changed over the years.  It's not exactly a trade secret you know.   I believe I have run across folks who have been a part of Nielsen Panels over the years on my time on the web, so it's not like they're unicorns or something.  

 

But, again, it's a big country (and even bigger internet) and 20k-40k households aren't all that many even with churn over the years/decades.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, BK007 said:

Home video sales were up to $21b alone in the height of its popularity in 2003/2004.

Are those GROSS numbers? Minus taxes, retail profit margin, distributor margin and physical manufacture cost, the Net revenue to Studio may be smaller then.

 

The streaming revenue is usually reported Net from Studio reporting.

[ZattMurdock]

3 hours ago, BK007 said:

Also btw 

 

Home video sales were up to $21b alone in the height of its popularity in 2003/2004.

 

Today's marketing including subscription streaming is only at $13b. So not only is it way down, but streaming is also eating into box office, pay TV windows etc. 

 

So for those still arguing that streaming makes the studios more money - that is definitely not the case. It's one product eating into everything else that generates revenue.

 

There will be an optimal point in the future, but day and date is not it. And Premiere Access will either shoot up dramatically in price or be remoulded into the familiar PVOD 24hr rental a few weeks into release that I think already exists. It'll probably be both. 

 

Or maybe studios start making movies for particular tiers - that might be the future of movies. Day and date is suicide. & once again this goes for traditional studios as opposed to Netflix, although even for the latter, they need to find a better balance in their content spend/quality, at least with regard to their movies. 

Good luck trying to really beat Netflix without day and date releases. If I would wholeheartedly agree with this in 2019, the game has changed too much now. I don’t think there is an way to put the genie back in the bottle anymore.

[ZattMurdock]

Article from last November ‘20:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-netflix-worth-more-disney-164313695.html

 

Thinking that traditional studios should not seek the streaming market harder than ever now with how little money is to be made from box office now seems crazy to me.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Alligator Zatt

[Krissykins]

10 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Because Nielsen is also looking at individual viewers. Their tech includes stuff like People Meters that allow Nielsen boxes/technology to look at each viewer in a household. They do this for TV ratings so advertisers can see what demos (man, woman, kid, adult, etc.) is actually watching their stuff and what ads should be targeted towards them. So this means for Tomorrow War, if three people in one household watch that movie together, instead of 138 minutes viewed, that means 414 minutes were viewed, because three people watched it. So because 1984 dropped when families were all at home together for Christmas, the minutes soared exponentially.

 

I hope that makes sense

Thanks. So The Suicide Squad would still be doing 1bn+ minutes on Neilsen if HBOMax was included there. In line with the other high profile streaming films this year. 

[Barnack]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are those GROSS numbers? Minus taxes, retail profit margin, distributor margin and physical manufacture cost, the Net revenue to Studio may be smaller then.

 

The streaming revenue is usually reported Net from Studio reporting.

? Depend where, often it will include verizon-Roku and others cut on it when talking about annual SVOD revenues I feel like, but in both case it is almost never movies streaming revenues that people talking about when talking big SVOD numbers, but global SVOD revenues that need to be compared to the $200B pay tv industry has well not just the $80-90b movie one. The error people on purpose seem to often do, is take Disney+ global revenues and compare them to movies future windows revenues one moment and the next use the same total number with TV.

 

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are those GROSS numbers? Minus taxes, retail profit margin, distributor margin and physical manufacture cost, the Net revenue to Studio may be smaller then.

Gross sales numbers often yes is what we are often exposed too gross sales on-the-numbers and so on (not if you go see an actual studio annual report too), same has for streaming or box office.

 

10 hours ago, BK007 said:

Home video sales were up to $21b alone in the height of its popularity in 2003/2004.

 

 

9 hours ago, Jamiem said:

You got a source for this?

 

For the home video sales of 2003-2004 in the USA alone:

https://www.immagic.com/eLibrary/ARCHIVES/GENERAL/MPAA_US/M050309M.pdf

 

Including the relatively really expensive unit bought by blockbuster and other to rend out:

in 2004, in the USA, 148.7 millions VHS was sold and 1,462.2 billion DVD according to Adams Media research, movies like Spider-Man, Potter, Passion of the Christ, Return of the King, Shrek 2 sold from 11 to 22 million unit, average price was over $20 USD that year.

 

I feel gross sales were over that in a single market, without VOD/PVOD.

 

In 2004 a movie like Spider-Man 2 would do in gross / net revenues

From theater: 399m / 159.3m

Home Ent: 403.4m / 206m

TV: 172.8/171m

 

If a single window get exclusivity and not only reduce theatrical but replace the 2 usual windows, its net revenue need to be compare to the combination of them I feel like. it was not uncommon for the studio revenues (not the gross sales) to be 2 time bigger (sometime 3-4) than theatrical rental on smaller movie, on giant theatrical success like above that 40% bigger being close to the norm.

 

That was $526 millions of revenues for the studio, 377m net income ($828 millions/$542m in 2021 dollars)

 

[Barnack]

7 hours ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Thinking that traditional studios should not seek the streaming market harder than ever now with how little money is to be made from box office now seems crazy to me.

Like the music industry had to seek streaming-youtube and so on, that not mean that the CD model was not much better for them.

 

That 2 different subject, how much should it goes on the theatrical one is also still a subject, even if obviously studio need streaming, so is are they (individually and the industry has a hole) better of everyone starting their own or selling to netflix-D+ like a Sony.

[jimisawesome]

49 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Like the music industry had to seek streaming-youtube and so on, that not mean that the CD model was not much better for them.

 

That 2 different subject, how much should it goes on the theatrical one is also still a subject, even if obviously studio need streaming, so is are they (individually and the industry has a hole) better of everyone starting their own or selling to netflix-D+ like a Sony.

 

In the US the recorded music industry 1999 was the peak year of revenue and the industry is just now getting back to 50% of that peak.  Now what actually matters to the public, less than half of the working musicians today than in 2000 and less new material that is commercially released and the public is listening to even less variety each year (defined as albums that sell 100 units or equivalent.)

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

less than half of the working musicians today than in 2000

With I imagine less than half studio time for your average album has well.

 

This is what people fear, could happen (and has in good part happened already):

 

 

With much cheaper (in time and effort put in them, budget, etc...) production but cheap to watch becoming the norm to adjust to the revenues reality.

 

 

[Madhuvan]

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

With I imagine less than half studio time for your average album has well.

 

This is what people fear, could happen (and has in good part happened already):

 

 

With much cheaper (in time and effort put in them, budget, etc...) production but cheap to watch becoming the norm to adjust to the revenues reality.

 

 

Vinyls are making a comeback. Maybe home videos or something along the line will too. 

[Barnack]

8 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Vinyls are making a comeback. Maybe home videos or something along the line will too. 

Vinyl and tape and other analog are inherently "different" than the digital version, because of the giant cost and giant size of a equivalent for movies (to have has good if not better for some than the digital version) it will be harder.

 

And the vinyl comeback is impressive but it is less than 3% of what CD sales were, i.e. something very niche would also exist physical movie wise at the very least almost for sure.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Barnack

[bobdysm]

14 hours ago, BK007 said:

Home video sales were up to $21b alone in the height of its popularity in 2003/2004.

 

Today's marketing including subscription streaming is only at $13b. So not only is it way down, but streaming is also eating into box office, pay TV windows etc. 

 

 

 

That today's market number seems way off. DEG says that in 2020 home entertainment (not including PVOD) revenue was a little more than $30B in the US.

Edited August 10, 2021 by bobdysm

[Jamiem]

7 hours ago, Barnack said:

For the home video sales of 2003-2004 in the USA alone:

https://www.immagic.com/eLibrary/ARCHIVES/GENERAL/MPAA_US/M050309M.pdf

 

Including the relatively really expensive unit bought by blockbuster and other to rend out:

in 2004, in the USA, 148.7 millions VHS was sold and 1,462.2 billion DVD according to Adams Media research, movies like Spider-Man, Potter, Passion of the Christ, Return of the King, Shrek 2 sold from 11 to 22 million unit, average price was over $20 USD that year.

 

I was meaning for the 2021 numbers $13B seems low even if that is just studio revenue for SVOD which would mean it wouldn't account for Netflix (which is pretty much the straight to DVD market) plus home media (which is obviously impacted by a lower cadence of releases) seems unlikely to me. 

 

4 hours ago, bobdysm said:

 

That today's market number seems way off. DEG says that in 2020 home entertainment (not including PVOD) revenue was a little more than $30B in the US.

 

Even if you take out SVOD revenue from this it's still $9B in home entertainment sales from the US alone. 

 

SVOD of course shouldn't count for 100% but at least say theoretically 20% of the remaining $21B gets you to about $4B which is $13B from the US alone. 

 

This year should be stronger as well with bigger releases and higher levels of PVOD.  

Edited August 10, 2021 by Jamiem