Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

[WrathOfHan]

https://deadline.com/2021/08/candyman-posts-sweet-thursday-night-with-1-9m-1234823246/

[WrathOfHan]

This is a very good result but lower than the mid-2s a lot of us were expecting in the tracking thread. It's undoubtedly overperforming in metro areas.

[Krissykins]

I was expecting $2m+ from the tracking thread but this seems solid. High teens seems likely then. 

[CJohn]

Remember the 20M OW hype? It is dead and buried.

[Krissykins]

Just now, CJohn said:

Remember the 20M OW hype? It is dead and buried.

Weren’t you predicting sub 10M OW? Aren’t you surprised? Lol

[filmlover]

Should be around $16-17M for the weekend based on this. Not the breakout it appeared to be pre-COVID when the first trailer landed, but for a somewhat obscure IP, this seems fine.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Is $20M still possible?

[CJohn]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Weren’t you predicting sub 10M OW? Aren’t you surprised? Lol

18M OW actually.

Edited August 27, 2021 by CJohn

[Madhuvan]

9 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Is $20M still possible?

Most probably not but there are always chances

[Krissykins]

2750 theatres for previews, exact same as Old.
 

Candyman expands to 3569 today, Old expanded to 3355. 
 

Old did 11.23x its preview, but I know Candyman will be more frontloaded because it’s a brand. Hoping it can get to high teens. 

[Cmasterclay]

Really disappointing number Hopefully Shang Chi does well enough next weekend to keep most of the fall slate frozen.

[Madhuvan]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

2750 theatres for previews, exact same as Old.
 

Candyman expands to 3569 today, Old expanded to 3355. 
 

Old did 11.23x its preview, but I know Candyman will be more frontloaded because it’s a brand. Hoping it can get to high teens. 

17-18 seems like a safe bet. Although it's over indexing in MTC so let's see

[Madhuvan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Really disappointing number Hopefully Shang Chi does well enough next weekend to keep most of the fall slate frozen.

I said this earlier also but it was dismissed. I still think lot is riding on Shang-Chi for future prospect of not only MCU releases but movies in general. 

I think 70m+ 4-day will help in keeping the momentum alive. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by Madhuvan

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I said this earlier also but it was dismissed. I still think lot is riding on Shang-Chi for future prospect of not only MCU releases but movies in general. 

I think 70m+ 4-day will help in keeping the momentum alive. 

It cannot be understated how do or die Shang-Chi making 50m 3-day is for us having fun and going to the movies this fall.

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I said this earlier also but it was dismissed. I still think lot is riding on Shang-Chi for future prospect of not only MCU releases but movies in general. 

I think 70m+ 4-day will help in keeping the momentum alive. 

I think Shang Chi is only gonna dictate supers and super-blockbusters' fall strategy...it's gonna have little to no effect on midsize budget/draws and smaller movies b/c they are riding and dying on the 3 main theaters (and some of the lesser ones) subscriber bases, not general audiences...

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think Shang Chi is only gonna dictate supers and super-blockbusters' fall strategy...it's gonna have little to no effect on midsize budget/draws and smaller movies b/c they are riding and dying on the 3 main theaters (and some of the lesser ones) subscriber bases, not general audiences...

 

 

Last year, the smaller and mid-sized movies were never able to settle and stay because they didn't have tentpoles to build around because Tenet and WW84 kept moving. That's why these movies are called tentpoles - they are the foundations from which the rest of the schedule and business blooms. If they move out, the smaller movies move out too. If Bond and Eternals and Spider-Man all stay put, then they'll stay put too.

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Last year, the smaller and mid-sized movies were never able to settle and stay because they didn't have tentpoles to build around because Tenet and WW84 kept moving. That's why these movies are called tentpoles - they are the foundations from which the rest of the schedule and business blooms. If they move out, the smaller movies move out too. If Bond and Eternals and Spider-Man all stay put, then they'll stay put too.

 

No, they moved out b/c there were no subscriber bases last year.  Regal was shut, many AMCs were, too, and those 2 bases are the "most often goers" b/c they are 3 movies/week vs Cinemark's 1/month.  

 

Now, all 3 (plus the lessers) have their subscription plans active and rolling...it's a different environment for those movies than last fall, although it's not very different for the blockbusters if they still can't pull in the non-subscribing general audiences in any real numbers...blockbusters live and die on GA...

Edited August 27, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Krissykins]

43 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Really disappointing number Hopefully Shang Chi does well enough next weekend to keep most of the fall slate frozen.

Why would $25m budgeted Candyman opening high teens and getting the second best horror preview number of the year make other smaller budgeted films move? 

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Why would $25m budgeted Candyman opening high teens and getting the second best horror preview number of the year make other smaller budgeted films move? 

I'm expecting it to have a terrible preview to weekend IM as a known IP with likely tough WOM, but I do think high teens would be more than fine if it does end up there.

[jimisawesome]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

No, they moved out b/c there were no subscriber bases last year.  Regal was shut, many AMCs were, too, and those 2 bases are the "most often goers" b/c they are 3 movies/week vs Cinemark's 1/month.  

 

Now, all 3 (plus the lessers) have their subscription plans active and rolling...it's a different environment for those movies than last fall, although it's not very different for the blockbusters if they still can't pull in the non-subscribing general audiences in any real numbers...blockbusters live and die on GA...

 

 

Just to add on.  AMC paused the A-List in March 2020 and did not automatically re-enroll members back until July 2021.