Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

How much money has Dune lost out on this weekend because people want to see it in PLF but can’t get a ticket? Or it’s not on at a time they want to go as not enough screens.  So they simply don’t go.  Or they see it in a lesser screen and pay less. 

Yeah, I saw it in the second best PLF after IMAX in my local. I was then planning to drive couple hours to see it on the only IMAX theaters nearby and take some friends with me that hadn't seen it. Two weeks had run out, NTTD previews started and all IMAXs were given to it. I'm betting they'll have reruns of Part 1 in IMAX in 2023 when Part 2 comes out. Talking about waiting for my Part 1 IMAX experience...

 

As a segue, I'm sure this PLF business and screenings for Dune is better sorted out when Part 2 comes out. Villeneuve has learned from Part 1 (he's shown the learning curve in his craft and he even talked about it regarding Part 1 & 2), WB has perhaps learned from the mistakes of this launch, brand familiarity has risen (people seen Part 1 on HBO & other platforms), etc...

 

Brand awareness and finances wise Dune Part 1 is the Batman Begins of Dune franchise and Part 2 is the Dark Knight of Dune franchise, Messiah being the Dark Knight Rises.

[Joyous Legion]

19 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

BW's -24.7%, TSS's -27.6%, BR2049 -21.6%, NTTD -24.2%.

Summer, summer, Columbus, Columbus. 
 

Edit: sniped by @TalismanRing I see

Edited October 23, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[Joyous Legion]

13 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

The chains should invest in conversion of regular screens to PLF but unfortunately most of them are in an absolute awful place financially so cant see it happening on a large scale, likely only the locations that are already profitable will that kind of thing happen in the next year or so. 

AMC just needs a few more Reddit circlejerks to afford it 🚀

[Jamiem]

3 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

AMC just needs a few more Reddit circlejerks to afford it 🚀

 

Spoiler

But in all honesty I imagine they would probably use the extra capital to pay off their short term Debt. 

 

[von Kenni]

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

BW & TSS - summer with softer Sunday drops with school out.

 

BR2049 and NTTD -  holiday & partial holiday Mondays.

 

 

I don't know if the schools matter in this case much. Dune demo is older and not so family oriented plus pandemic might have kept children more at home and prevent parents seeing the Dune compared to now when they can meet their friends more openly.

 

NTTD holiday is a valid point but BR2049's indigenous day isn't a national holiday if I remember right. Either way there's buffer for all this in those estimates if Dune needs -32% drop.

[von Kenni]

Other weekend bump/drop comps:

 

Interstellar Sat +8.4%, Sun -32.5% (Nov9th, 2014)

Martian Sat +42%, Sun -37.5% (Oct 4th, 2015)

Ad Astra Sat +30%, Sun -39.2% (Sep 22nd, 2019)

 

With Interstellar bumps &drops Dune would hit exactly $40m. Chasing the bone...

 

 

Edited October 23, 2021 by von Kenni

[nguyenkhoi282]

47 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$17.5m looks to be right on the button.  

 

 

Ideally

5.1

12.4

13.6 (+10%)

8.9 (-35%)

= 40M

Manifesting it now 👀

[el sid]

Ok, so I just hope that it crosses or comes close to that "psychological barrier" of 40M and you all are right about part 2. Feel more optimistic again now.

 

Probably I also reacted so disappointed because my own tracking where it looked so much better was - as for NTTD - so way off (and even for Bond at least one comp, of course the worst, worked for true Friday).

But now I plan with 35M for Dune and if the number is higher (as calculated above), even better.

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 12.25

HK 4.5

NTTD 3.6

V2 2.4

Ron 2

SC 0.58

French Dispatch 0.37

 

Ron starts his comeback:)...maybe it can still get to 7-8M this weekend or really surprise and sneak to close to double digits with incredible Saturday/Sunday walk ups (since it didn't presell anything)...

 

It better start quickly adopting Thomas The Train's motto "I think I can, I think I can" - the movie does deserve to get as much as it can...

[von Kenni]

dune part 2 release date	4100%
dune part 2	3400%
when will dune part 2 be released	3200%
dune post credit scene	2750%
dune after credits	2550%
how many parts is dune	2300%
where was dune 2021 filmed	2050%
when does dune part 2 come out	1900%
dune after credits scene 2021	1900%
when is dune 2 coming out	1750%
does dune have a post credit scene	1500%
when is dune part 2 coming out	1400%
how many dune movies will there be	1350%
denis villeneuve dune sequel	1350%
dune movie part 2	1250%
dune sequel movie	1250%
will there be a dune 2	1050%
dune sequel	900%
when does dune 2 come out	900%
is there a dune 2	850%
where was dune filmed	800%
dune end credit scenes	800%
who is the emperor in dune	700%
dune part two	700%
will there be a dune sequel	550%

 

That's the Top25 Google trending queries during last 7 days in the US. Now tell me that the ambiguity about Part 2 didn't effect people 1) going to see it in the first place, 2) their eagerness of recommending it (WOM) which I talked in length in my earlier post. This is marketing 101!

 

And for the HBO Max, it was a recurring top theme in Google searches in the past 30 days in the US.

[Valonqar]

I'm more than happy with anything above BR2049 cause doomsayers predicted below that number. But close to 40M is just awesome. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Does dispatch have previews? Or true Fri?

 

You have led me down a rabbit hole.  My sample picked up 55 theaters for the French Dispatch this week despite Deadline showing 52.  Looking into my report, I see two theaters in Puerto Rico that may or may not be reported in domestic box office.  In searching for an answer, I find this line in the IMDB help page

 

Quote

"Domestic" refers to gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico), unless otherwise noted. "International" covers the rest of the world.

 

It sounds like they should be included, but the only other questionable one I see is a theater in NC that has one showing today as a part of a small Film Festival.  

 

SO, excluding those three would bring us down to 52 theaters.  Unfortunately I can't go back to see if the PR theaters had previews, but my total number of preview shows was at 148 (in 48 of the 55 theaters).  That represents about 10% of the weekend's shows (148/1447).

[Joyous Legion]

14 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

my total number of preview shows was at 148 (in 48 of the 55 theaters).  That represents about 10% of the weekend's shows (148/1447).

Hmm, so if FSS each have the same that would be 30%, but presumably a bit less in Fri, maybe 25%? So if prev PSA matched TFri PSA it would be ~28% of the OD, I suspect prev PSA should be decently higher — say maybe 150% the Fri PSA would bring us to ~37.5% of OD.   
 

If 370k is OD, 140k prev 230 true is not that huge, but if 370k is true (similar to the dune and Ron figs) then the OD would maybe go past 500k for quite  substantial weekend pta. Guessing the 370 includes previews for now.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[CJohn]

God, give me 40M. I just saw this in IMAX and it was magical.

[FilmFincher]

11 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

Does this movie have fan besides me?

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

I'm more than happy with anything above BR2049 cause doomsayers predicted below that number. But close to 40M is just awesome. 

Yes! Probably the $40 has only  significance if it triggers press & other earned media to frame it more favourably but I doubt the difference is much for the overall legs. For WB & Legendary the overall $ & HBO Max numbers count and it's almost no difference if the OW is $39 or $40.  

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Yes! Probably the $40 has only  significance if it triggers press & other earned media to frame it more favourably but I doubt the difference is much for the overall legs. For WB & Legendary the overall $ & HBO Max numbers count and it's almost no difference if the OW is $39 or $40.  

 

Ha ha very true! People love rounded numbers but it makes no difference to WB. if they want 300M WW to greenlight the sequel, that's happening with 39M or 40M. 

 

34 minutes ago, CJohn said:

God, give me 40M. I just saw this in IMAX and it was magical.

 

Yes very immersive/transporting. 

[john2000]

 

 

[excel1]

Dune was insanely boring. It will not have even remotely good legs. What were they thinking?

[Eric is Quiet]

Honestly for me I...don't get the PLF hype? Outside of the fact that I'm a cheapskate who doesn't like paying extra, I can watch a movie just fine even if it's in a crummy projection area. I saw Shang-Chi in IMAX and it didn't really change anything for me (though I'm aware that's probably a case of just the movie or something). And really, if you think you absolutely need to see a movie in IMAX or whatever to get out of something, I feel like that says to the movie that it can't stand on its own and that it's not entertaining unless you get some extra bells and whistles.

 

I'm seeing Dune later today, and despite everybody saying how it must be seen in IMAX and I will miss out on so much without IMAX...I'm just going to the 2D show. If I need to see a movie in a PLF in order to like it, then it says to me maybe the movie isn't very good or holds up on its own.