Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[wildphantom]

49 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I feel like the exhibition community is complaining too much and making demands instead of doing something about dwindling audiences themselves. Sorry but plenty of auditoriums are just not up to snuff. Either picture is blurry and have a low contrast, or sound is too low and bass is lacking. I refuse to pay for a subpar experience. Sure, you lack the social aspect watching something at home but from an audio / visual standpoint you can get a better experience without having to spend a fortune (preferably if you have a house or tolerant neighbors). Home theater equipment has come a long way.

totally. 
In the U.K. I had largely bailed on the big multiplexes as most of their regular screens let their projector bulbs fade. My local indie has laser in every screen, so that became my theatre of choice overnight. Even though it costs me more. 
 

People will pay top dollar to guarantee a great presentation. 

[wildphantom]

46 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

The problem with adding more PLFs would be 

-not all weekends require multiple PLF films. Sept 24 for example. Do we need 2 IMAX and Dolbys for Dear Evan Hansen and Shang Chi’s 4th weekend?

-the size capacity of theaters 

-it would likely mean less auditoriums?

All good questions. 
 

yet is having NTTD (for example) in two smaller auditoriums going to make more money than in one extra PLF? 
Why have two quarter full screens when you can have one busy one and charge people more? Let alone attract people that will only come if they can see the PLF. 

 

Less showtimes in that example? Yes. 
But the cost makes up for it and people have a better time. 
 

I don’t know. It just feels like audiences are asking for more and more PLF experiences. We’re now at a point where the studios are delivering them, but the theaters cannot really cater for them like they should be. Whilst having a bunch of near empty screens showing movies that have long gone from people’s heads. 
 

Look at this Christmas. Matrix and Spider-Man. Both those films should have Dolby/IMAX guaranteed if you rock up on Christmas Day to see them. But they won’t. That isn’t what audiences want. 

[AJG]

1 hour ago, Elessar said:

 

I feel like the exhibition community is complaining too much and making demands instead of doing something about dwindling audiences themselves. Sorry but plenty of auditoriums are just not up to snuff. Either picture is blurry and have a low contrast, or sound is too low and bass is lacking. I refuse to pay for a subpar experience. Sure, you lack the social aspect watching something at home but from an audio / visual standpoint you can get a better experience without having to spend a fortune (preferably if you have a house or tolerant neighbors). Home theater equipment has come a long way.

 

Bring back intermissions (and a cartoon before every film).

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Bring back intermissions (and a cartoon before every film).

especially those Roger Rabbit shorts. 
 

Hell, stick a Marvel short on before ANY movie and people might show up!!! 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

All good questions. 
 

yet is having NTTD (for example) in two smaller auditoriums going to make more money than in one extra PLF? 
Why have two quarter full screens when you can have one busy one and charge people more? Let alone attract people that will only come if they can see the PLF. 

 

Less showtimes in that example? Yes. 
But the cost makes up for it and people have a better time. 
 

I don’t know. It just feels like audiences are asking for more and more PLF experiences. We’re now at a point where the studios are delivering them, but the theaters cannot really cater for them like they should be. Whilst having a bunch of near empty screens showing movies that have long gone from people’s heads. 
 

Look at this Christmas. Matrix and Spider-Man. Both those films should have Dolby/IMAX guaranteed if you rock up on Christmas Day to see them. But they won’t. That isn’t what audiences want. 

You're absolutely right. The regular showtimes for Dune this weekend here are ghostowns. the 630 XD had at least 80 people, the 430 regular... 8.

 

The pandemic and these opening weekends proved one thing--if audiences are leaving their houses, it's for well-known properties that "demand" the theater experience. Even the original exception of Free Guy had PLFs and was a video-game movie with Easter Eggs and references

[nguyenkhoi282]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Sad 😞. The last number I saw in the tracking thread was that it could get 14M true Friday (and that 13M are likely with not too bad walk-ups) and now it gets only 4M more than TSS true Friday.

 

I was pretty sure that after this weekend part 2 is announced but now...with very probably a big drop next weekend...I fear that a second part is in danger. They could say it's because of HBO Max but also that it's too much of a niche film (for its budget).

12.25 and 14 won't make a damn difference in greenlighting Part 2. If they were going to do it, they will do it. 

[Cap]

Maybe time is a circle, And to get the large premium screens, the businesses will need to break up the megaplexes cause they’re going to larger and larger screens. And we’re going to go back to the single screen movie palace… 🧐🧐🧐

[von Kenni]

It might be that even the mighty Shai-Hulud needs to bow in front of HBO Max. Looks like the GA choices are quite polarised between PLF screens and HBO Max. Middle ground is a no mans land.

 

I wonder how much trackers here track the M&S efforts for major launches?

 

Previews are one thing but like always no matter how good the product is, the M&S can either deflate it or make it fly. How is the messaging for each target group, the channels used, the positioning, and so on? How do you create it as a campaign building momentum for the OD & OW? What's the right perception to create?

 

That's a major factor for walkups that is in the hands of the studio. Competition (mostly), weather, outside events, and other external factors not so much. So Step 1: getting them to the cinema (presales & walkups). Step 2: to have the marketing & actual product enough aligned that the audience doesn't feel cheated afterwards, but instead are ecstatic and WOM starts to roll (the product must of course be great for that).

 

On the surface it looks like WB did a decent job with the marketing but the devil is in the details.

 

The biggest misfire that speaks volume is something that I cannot wrap my head around: Why didn't WB announce the sequel before the US OW?!

 

I thought the same as Charlie right after the successful OS opening in September that greenlighting the Dune Part 2 is a no-brainer and WB should announce it to fuel the domestic launch. There's couple ways to do it but a one clear choice is to announce it for the final week's push where all the cast is giving interviews and a lot of the heavy lifting is done. Then we wouldn't be in these kind of awkward situations like watching Timothée and Zendaya squerling in Colbert's (huge Dune fan) questions if the audience will see Part 2 or people with millions of Youtube followers without pre-existing knowledge of Dune that give a rave review but even say (and show) that they tone it down because they don't know if there will be Part 2. This is 101 messaging & marketing!?

 

Definitely hinders WOM and walkups when people have the perception "why should I go to watch it if it's an incomplete story and we don't know if it gets a sequel?" or "should I recommend it because if it doesn't get the sequel it'll be frustrating not to get a conclusion".

 

One way would have been to announce it and incorporate to all messaging and marketing materials that due to the overwhelming reception there will be not just Dune Part 2 but also the Dune Messiah, a Dune Trilogy! Then the "this is only the beginning" would have had some goddamn weight.

 

The misleading trailers seemed good to attract GA without producing a feeling of being cheated. The Fortnite promos with T&Z seemed okay but I don't have a clue if they executed it in a way that was embraced by Fortnite players. Otherwise I wonder how well T&Z were utilized for younger demos. E.g. sending them to the Late Show with Colbert where demographics skew to way older demos seems against marketing 101. You should use them in channels and forums where the younger demos actually exist. Done in a correct way you could lure in young couples and help to combat the male heaviness. It's all about the execution: right channel, right positioning & messaging. Young people don't read Time magazine!

 

MCU does probably the best movie marketing today. They've actually built a consistent brand that they use with data driven marketing and all-around diverse marketing tool palette, and it shows.

 

Again, question for especially trackers here: how much do you look into the marketing of major releases when doing OW predictions?

 

 

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Sad 😞. The last number I saw in the tracking thread was that it could get 14M true Friday (and that 13M are likely with not too bad walk-ups) and now it gets only 4M more than TSS true Friday.

 

I was pretty sure that after this weekend part 2 is announced but now...with very probably a big drop next weekend...I fear that a second part is in danger. They could say it's because of HBO Max but also that it's too much of a niche film (for its budget).

Not to worry, it'll happen and Dune Messiah too. The result is already solid enough for WB and hard to imagine that HBO numbers wouldn't be there. $35+ is a solid, good result in the context of the launch. Maybe even better than just that.

 

I hope Charlie is this time a bit off with 12.25 and it's closer to 13 for Fri. That would give a shot to break $40m which is more of a psychological barrier that would be nice to overcome. Then we would be more in the "great" territory. If they would have announced the Part 2 already that would have lifted the current ambiguity for the audience and $40 would have been a sure thing with increases in walkups & WOM.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

single screen theaters would be very disappointing but we're already seeing anything that isn't the top blockbuster of the year struggle and die in empty auditoriums. My theory last year during pandemic was that theaters would become more exclusive for opening weekends--which isn't totally farfetched now?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

We were so close to 4 weekends of 40m openers, too. Hope Dune can get there 

[wildphantom]

33 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You're absolutely right. The regular showtimes for Dune this weekend here are ghostowns. the 630 XD had at least 80 people, the 430 regular... 8.

 

The pandemic and these opening weekends proved one thing--if audiences are leaving their houses, it's for well-known properties that "demand" the theater experience. Even the original exception of Free Guy had PLFs and was a video-game movie with Easter Eggs and references

exactly. The word is out. See Dune BIG or don’t bother. In a week or so people won’t even have the chance to see it in PLF. 

 

I saw it in IMAX yesterday and was staggered by it. Want to go again, but unless I get my skates on I’ll likely not be able to. As there’s no way I’m seeing it in a smaller screen. 

[wildphantom]

Now we’re really cooking with this PLF debate. 
 

How much money has Dune lost out on this weekend because people want to see it in PLF but can’t get a ticket? Or it’s not on at a time they want to go as not enough screens.  So they simply don’t go.  Or they see it in a lesser screen and pay less. 
 

PLF is the expansion that the marketplace needs to double down on to ensure a bright future.  Audiences love it. 

[von Kenni]

I'm swimming upstream here but if @keysersoze123 Fri/Sat preview comparison and Saturday days PLF shows estimates on the other thread give us that 10% bump for Sat, here's a path for $40m OW even if we get "just" 12.24 true Fri:

 

5.1 + 12.25 + 13.5 + 9.2 ~$40m

 

Sunday drop would be -32% which should be reachable based on BW's -24.7%, TSS's -27.6%, BR2049 -21.6%, NTTD -24.2%.

 

It's a long weekend...

[efialtes76]

12.25M would be 53% more than TSS true Friday.

26 2 x1.53= 40M OW...

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Imagine if Warner does decide to do Part 2, but...

It's from a random TV director (perhaps Louis Leterrier )and Timothee Chalamet is replaced with, say, Jake Abel or something.

[EmpireCity]

$17.5m looks to be right on the button.  

 

 

[Jamiem]

The chains should invest in conversion of regular screens to PLF but unfortunately most of them are in an absolute awful place financially so cant see it happening on a large scale, likely only the locations that are already profitable will that kind of thing happen in the next year or so. 

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

I'm swimming upstream here but if @keysersoze123 Fri/Sat preview comparison and Saturday days PLF shows estimates on the other thread give us that 10% bump for Sat, here's a path for $40m OW even if we get "just" 12.24 true Fri:

 

5.1 + 12.25 + 13.5 + 9.2 ~$40m

 

Sunday drop would be -32% which should be reachable based on BW's -24.7%, TSS's -27.6%, BR2049 -21.6%, NTTD -24.2%.

 

It's a long weekend...

 

BW & TSS - summer with softer Sunday drops with school out.

 

BR2049 and NTTD -  holiday & partial holiday Mondays.

 

 

[efialtes76]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$17.5m looks to be right on the button.  

 

 

12.4M on Friday.

Not bad at all.