Eternals Weekend Thread: 71M OW DOM, 90M OS | Dune 7.6M (-50%), NTTD 6.2M, Venom 4.5M, Spencer 2.1M

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Disney Insider speaking about Phase V. What about Avengers 5?

Young Avengers 2025

Full Avengers 2027 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Young Avengers 2025

Full Avengers 2027 

 

 

Friends, I am Noting Down. Ok what about Captain America 4?

[SpiderByte]

Young Avengers will be a show, not a movie I think. They seem to be merging it with the Champions team as well.

[Coldbird]

10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Anyone who thinks Eternals 2 isn't happening, doesn't know how the MCU works at all. 

Ant-Man is about to have his 3rd film, and sans China (which Eternals doesn't have) his first 2 films have made an average of $457M worldwide. That's dealing with no pandemic and no censorship. 

 

By 2026 we will have an Eternals 2. 

 

The average of 457m without china is still more than eternals will most likely reach and the budget of Ant-man is 130m and ant-man and the wasp is unclear but definitely under the one of eternals. If Eternals would have costed 150m and would reach 450m it would look different.

 

Also that Eternals does not have china does not mean you can just subtract the china gross from other movies and than argue the profitability is the same. Its still more money that Disney saw than they decided their next steps about Ant-Man and money which Disney wont see for Eternals.

Edited November 7, 2021 by Coldbird

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Friends, I am Noting Down. Ok what about Captain America 4?

2024

[Eric is Anxious]

58 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I am all for doom and gloom myself but let's not act like Eternals is very popular franchise inside Marvel. 

 

Sequel will happen but I don't know when. Also, it's not tanking as some users are trying to convey. Overseas box office is good enough. Anything over 450m+ will be good enough without China. 

 

That's weird, I thought Eternals was a megabomb and that Marvel was doomed forever to fail?

[CJohn]

Just got out of Eternals. For the MCU DOM Top 5 it will certainly need all the help it can get from Thanksgiving and an empty schedule. Some CHOICES were made in this movie.

[SpiderByte]

16 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Ant-Man is about to have his 3rd film, and sans China (which Eternals doesn't have) his first 2 films have made an average of $457M worldwide. That's dealing with no pandemic and no censorship. 

His third film which will be the (proper) introduction of the MCU's next big bad.

[von Kenni]

44 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

For the record: one of the most important characters in Endgame, and the one most vital to the story, was Ant-Man. Whereas Captain Marvel, a massive hit, was barely above a cameo. So box office is not a 1 to 1 measure of importance to future films and teamups.

 

Especially since in the comics Dane and Sersi are both card carrying members of the Avengers.

 

 

Yeah, there is so much more to it how Disney & Marvel evaluate Eternals and much of it is hidden from the public. It's much simpler to evaluate Dune's success based on the numbers knowing that they hope it to open a new franchise and groom Villeneuve to replace Nolan. More complexity when it comes to Eternals & MCU.

[wildphantom]

Just saw it. The first act has major issues that could be solved with an extra ten minutes, structure alteration and variance of colour grading. 
I suspect many will tap out during that clunky opening half hour, but for those that don’t there’s a pretty terrific fantasy sci-fi to get stuck into. 
 

I really liked it, flaws and all.  I expect fans will love it for the most part. General audiences, definitely more mixed. 

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

Thinking Eternals' numbers (I hope those who track it more closely can help on this).

 

If OW $70m, and let's say legs between Venom 2 & SC 2.55*70 ~ 180 DOM .. let's add a bit more, think it's skewed more to the older slow dripping demo, and it's Captain America 2.72*70 ~ 190 DOM.

 

Captain America did $370.6m WW /w $140m budget ~2.6x

 

For Eternals 2 and continuation it would probably be good if it makes 2.5x the budget ($500m). Eternals will be evaluated with pre-pandemic adjusted numbers (and of course there are internal expectations and parameters that we don't know for sure) for that.

 

Pre-pandemic adjustment for DOM about +15% (might be lower for other MCU movies do to younger demos)

190 ->  220 DOM

To get the needed $280m pre-pandemic adj. OS it would need around $230m actual OS now (I used +22.5% pandemic adj. here). Shouldn't it be able to make that?

 

I.e. 190 DOM + 230 OS = 420 WW ~ 500 WW pre-pandemic adj. ~ Captain America level success with numbers -> Eternals 2

 

Though, Disney & Marvel probably have some other and higher metrics/expectations that they want to meet. I doubt divisive reception effects badly because the last thing they should do is to divide the fandom like with Star Wars or Star Trek has happened.

With Charlie's estimates will hit that $420-430m WW which would be $500m and some pre-pandemic adjusted. Purely financial numbers wise Captain America level success. Maybe slightly less if rentals fall short from CA.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, ACSlater said:

 

@charlie Jatinder Any idea on Sooryavanshi? I am about to take my mum and go see it today for the post-Diwali weekend. Gotta build my Indian street cred for the upcoming year. 

$1.25M weekend on 460 locs in US.

$12.25M weekend in India on 2000 locs.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Why did he failed to inform about CoVid-19? 

because he was off planet when he saw those 14,000,605 futures, and was dusted off-planet only.

 

he returned to Earth in 2023 after Pandemic was over, which thanks to 50% population dusted, didn't do much damage.

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

because he was off planet when he saw those 14,000,605 futures, and was dusted off-planet only.

 

he returned to Earth in 2023 after Pandemic was over, which thanks to 50% population dusted, didn't do much damage.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, john2000 said:

yes i do responses are closer to mixed than trash and box office will end up still decent so..... thor 2 was also a miss, so was ironman 2.

Eh...among the hardcore MCU fans it definitely has found some love, but GA responses in the US are really bad. Worse than Thor 2 or Iron Man 2 for sure. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Eh...among the hardcore MCU fans it definitely has found some love, but GA responses in the US are really bad. Worse than Thor 2 or Iron Man 2 for sure. 

It doesnt matter much, its not like general audience remembers this movies anyways, the sequel will probably come in at least 4 years and its not like wom is toxic.I would also say that the problem for ga probably is that the movie is boring , not that much bc its a mess, venom 2 is a mess but its a fun mess.

Edited November 7, 2021 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

It doesnt matter much, its not like general audience remembers this movies anyways, the sequel will probably come in at least 4 years and its not like wom is toxic.I would also say that the problem for ga probably is that the movie is boring , not that much bc its a mess, venom 2 is a mess but its a fun mess.

That, I can't truly speak to, bc the movie was the opposite of boring for me, but I suspect finding the structure offputting and finding the movie boring have some relationship to each other. Difference with Venom movies is the franchise isn't super plot-driven anyway so it doesn't matter as much what the story is (also the first one had a fairly straightforward story anyway, I would call it many things but not particularly a mess, haven't seen the second though). 

 

As far as people remembering this movie, yeah, I have been making this point. If NWH is a well-received smash nobody will particularly care that Eternals had bad reception. However, if NWH disappoints, Eternals disappointing will kinda pile onto that. 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Menor

[TwoMisfits]

So, now to be a bummer to the film's fans...but Eternals isn't getting a direct theatrical sequel with its full cast with this open, this reception, and this budget.

 

Disney had Solo...it did about as well, with about as well reception...and it killed all the theatrical sequels and spin-offs for that part of its universe.

 

This for the MCU is like that for the SWU.  You'll see the most popular or "needed for plot" Eternal or 2 show up in the movies, you might get some D+ TV shows, but you are never gonna see Eternals 2 - the baggage would be too epic.

 

I'm assuming Deadline has not reported demo breakdowns for this movie yet (even though they did for Spencer) b/c they were also problematic for Disney's MCU 4 quad draw...and if you are missing those, you get flushed for good.

 

I mean, maybe you get an Eternals after the big universe reboot...but it would take that (and they just did a universe reboot, so it will be awhile).

 

Again, you have to know the company and its expectations...and when Disney planned this as a full theatrical with this cast, they did not list "it will break even theatrically" as its planned theatrical revenue, especially after making the non-PVOD decision.  They did also not list "less theatrical revenue that Black Widow or Shang Chi" when they made the call.  This was the "pimp slot" Covid lull open with practically all theatrical open...this is a major disappointment for Disney corporate...

Edited November 7, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[john2000]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, now to be a bummer to the film's fans...but Eternals isn't getting a direct theatrical sequel with its full cast with this open, this reception, and this budget.

 

Disney had Solo...it did about as well, with about as well reception...and it killed on all the theatrical sequels and spin-offs for that part of its universe.

 

This for the MCU is like that for the SWU.  You'll see the most popular or "needed for plot" Eternal or 2 show up in the movies, you might get some D+ TV shows, but you are never gonna see Eternals 2 - the baggage would be too epic.

 

I'm assuming Deadline has not reported demo breakdowns for this movie yet (even though they did for Spencer) b/c they were also problematic for Disney's MCU 4 quad draw...and if you are missing those, you get flushed for good.

 

I mean, maybe you get an Eternals after the big universe reboot...but it would take that (and they just did a universe reboot, so it will be awhile).

 

Again, you have to know the company and its expectations...and when Disney planned this as a full theatrical with this cast, they did not list "it will break even theatrically" as its planned theatrical revenue, especially after making the non-PVOD decision.  They did also not list "less theatrical revenue that Black Widow or Shang Chi" when they made the call.  This was the "pimp slot" Covid lull open with practically all theatrical open...this is a major disappointment for Disney corporate...

thats some BOLD preditiction, i wouldnt hold on to that.As for your arguement bw also just broke even , shang chi while a success it didnt make a mindblowing profit, so eternals isnt really that far off ,also unlike solo, solo lost money and had bigger budget than eternals have so solo is nothing like eternals , way different situations.As long as the movie breaks even and from the moment that the WOM isnt really toxic not good but not toxic either, what will probably happen is that they will make a sequel with the same or less budget and probably a better story structure etc.

Edited November 7, 2021 by john2000

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, john2000 said:

thats some BOLD preditiction, i wouldny hold on to that.

 

I did have the bold "Eternals will never make $100M DOM OW prediction" months ago, so I'm doing well on supers predictions lately:)...