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Spiderman : No Way Home - Box office thread

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3 hours ago, Coldbird said:

Does it open in all (important) markets except china this weekend?

 

Almost, because in Japan it comes out on January 7. Then there would also be Thailand, Philippines, Hong Kong and Norway

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Just now, john2000 said:

The best thing about this movie is the fact that the audience reception at least as of now , seems to be fantastic.


That shouldn’t change at this point. Across the world, the reaction seems at least on par with IW if not EG.

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So... This is my 'Its now doing at least those numbers'

 

USA + Canada - 700m

 

South Korea - 63m

Japan - 45m

India - 28m 
Taiwan - 22m
Hong Kong - 15m

Malaysia - 10m

Indonesia - 12m

Singapore - 10m

Thailand - 8m
Rest of SEA - 12m 

ASIA - China - 225m+

 

Middle East - 30m+

 

Australia + NZ  - 55m+

 

Mexico - 50m+
Brazil - 40m+

LATAM (as whole) - 120m+

 

UK - 55m
France - 35m
Germany - 25m

Russia/CIS -  20m
Italy - 25m
Spain - 20m

Nordic Lands - 20m 

Rest of Europe - 20m

Europe (As whole) = 220m+  [I expect this number to touch 250 or 275m here]

 

OS - China = 650m

Total - 1.35b+ (Without China)

Edited by Shanks
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1 hour ago, Shanks said:

So... This is my 'Its now doing at least those numbers'

 

USA + Canada - 700m

 

South Korea - 63m

Japan - 45m

India - 28m 
Taiwan - 22m
Hong Kong - 15m

Malaysia - 10m

Indonesia - 12m

Singapore - 10m

Thailand - 8m
Rest of SEA - 12m 

ASIA - China - 225m+

 

Middle East - 30m+

 

Australia + NZ  - 55m+

 

Mexico - 50m+
Brazil - 40m+

LATAM (as whole) - 120m+

 

UK - 55m
France - 35m
Germany - 25m

Russia/CIS -  20m
Italy - 25m
Spain - 20m

Nordic Lands - 20m 

Rest of Europe - 20m

Europe (As whole) = 220m+  [I expect this number to touch 250 or 275m here]

 

OS - China = 650m

Total - 1.35b+ (Without China)

In general, pretty agree

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So for some comparison the last jedi had a 230 million ow os-china and finished with 670 mill sans china, thats a 2,9 multi.TROS on the other hand had a 200 mill os-china ow and finished with 540, thats a 2,7 multi.I dont see a reason why spidey would have a lower multi than them so a predicted 300 mill os ow and applying this comps, and we have 810-870.Also seeing the reception that this movie has so far i wouldnt be surpised if it could hit 900 million+ os-china.

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Blah blah omicron disclaimer blah blah.   
 

I mostly agree with John. If OS-C-J goes to like 320, I don’t see why it wouldn’t leg to mid 900s for over 1B/over IW OS-C once Japan does it’s part.   
 

I guess one reason could be that SW is stronger in leggier markets and Marvel stronger is lower legged markets, but on the other hand you have reception. And including J in the calculation for the SW boosts the multis a bit.
 

TFA looks like a 4.34x OS-C multiplier 👀. 3.34 post sun/OW, vs 2.8 DOM. If NWH can go 2.2x DOM as I suspect, then why not a 3.3x+ OS-C legs? Call OS-C-J 320, OS-C 335, there we are again O/U Billie. 

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Personal predictions based on the predicted ow both dom and os 

1,4-1,6 billion WITHOUT CHINA ,if and thats a big IF releases in china then add 200-300 (could be higher) for 1,6-1,9 billion ww.I know that this  numbers may seem  unrealistic but really they are not ,IF the ow goes as predicted ww then with the legs i applied which are realistic even more so with the WOM that is having we get this result.

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IF we get 320 OS-C opening I don’t really see what is stopping us from WW-C over JW WW 🤷‍♂️


If we had a good China date it should have pulled 330+ probably, though let’s see how HK and Taiwan end up.

Edited by Product Driven Legion
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3 hours ago, john2000 said:

Personal predictions based on the predicted ow both dom and os 

1,4-1,6 billion WITHOUT CHINA ,if and thats a big IF releases in china then add 200-300 (could be higher) for 1,6-1,9 billion ww.I know that this  numbers may seem  unrealistic but really they are not ,IF the ow goes as predicted ww then with the legs i applied which are realistic even more so with the WOM that is having we get this result.

 

3 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

IF we get 320 OS-C opening I don’t really see what is stopping us from WW-C over JW WW 🤷‍♂️


If we had a good China date it should have pulled 330+ probably, though let’s see how HK and Taiwan end up.

 

My prediction is 1.4b+ too, if something drastic like cinema closure or new variant  problem dont occur. 

 

Edited by anti-Pedantic
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5 hours ago, Shanks said:

So... This is my 'Its now doing at least those numbers'

 

USA + Canada - 700m

 

South Korea - 63m

Japan - 45m

India - 28m 
Taiwan - 22m
Hong Kong - 15m

Malaysia - 10m

Indonesia - 12m

Singapore - 10m

Thailand - 8m
Rest of SEA - 12m 

ASIA - China - 225m+

 

Middle East - 30m+

 

Australia + NZ  - 55m+

 

Mexico - 50m+
Brazil - 40m+

LATAM (as whole) - 120m+

 

UK - 55m
France - 35m
Germany - 25m

Russia/CIS -  20m
Italy - 25m
Spain - 20m

Nordic Lands - 20m 

Rest of Europe - 20m

Europe (As whole) = 220m+  [I expect this number to touch 250 or 275m here]

 

OS - China = 650m

Total - 1.35b+ (Without China)

 

All your numbers make sense (well done 👍), but for Usa+Canada I expect 600M at max

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