Spiderman : No Way Home - Box office thread

[LPLC]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

your current range is without china ?

Yes

[Olive]

I think beating Avengers 1 with China would be great.

[charlie Jatinder]

$700M INT without China is possible. 

Edited December 10, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[CJohn]

It should do around 1.1B WW without China. A strong result, considering it is the same FFH did with China and this time there is also a raging pandemic with a new variant destroying economies and causing lockdowns in Europe.

[catlover]

4 hours ago, LPLC said:

 

 

Update :

 

 

Domestic = $550M-$600M

 

 

EMEA :

 

United Kingdom = $70M-$80M

France = $30M-$35M

Germany = $25M-$30M (uncertainty due to Covid)

Italy = $20M-$25M

Spain = $15M-$20M

KSA = $15M

Netherlands = $10M

UAE = $10M

Sweden = $5M-$10M

Poland = $5M

Danemark = $5M

Norway = $5M

Rest = $50M-$60M

 

Total EMEA = $265M-$310M

 

 

Latin america :

 

Mexico = $50M-$60M

Brazil = $30M-$40M

Chile = $7M-$9M

Peru = $7M-$9M

Colombia = $6M-$8M

Argentina = $5M-$7M

Ecuador = $5M

Rest = $10M

 

Total Latin America = $120M-$160M

 

 

Asia :

 

South Korea = $60M-$70M

Japan = $40M-$50M

Australia = $35M-$45M 

Russia = $25M-$30M

India = $20M-$25M

Taiwan = $15M

Thailand = $15M

Hong Kong = $10M-$15M

Philippines = $10M-$15M

Malaysia = $10M

Singapore = $10M

Indonesia = $5M-$10M (uncertainty due to Covid)

Rest = $10M-$15M

 

Total Asia = $265M-$325M

 

 

China = $0M (uncertainty)

 

 

Total = $1,2B - $1,4B

 

 

More than FFH without China would be great. This is the goal for NWH.

 

In Indonesia it will surely make more than Eternals ($6m+). Especially now that previously planned stricker Covid rules for theaters are cancelled. Covid situation is also as great as ever, probably the best in SEA region right now, which I hope will stay that way, or get even better. The case number has been on downward trend for almost 5 months now and is the lowest since April 2020. So I don't think there's "uncertainty" here, at least until New Year. Pre-order has also started and it's through the roof. So maybe closer to $10m.

Edited December 10, 2021 by catlover

[charlie Jatinder]

$5M weekend in INDO probably for $10-15M full run.

[CoolK]

Presales have started yesterday here in Singapore.  Shows are starting from 15-Dec(wed) 4PM .

presales are pretty good, especially IMAX shows till next sunday are selling out fast.

 

[LPLC]

6 hours ago, catlover said:

 

In Indonesia it will surely make more than Eternals ($6m+). Especially now that previously planned stricker Covid rules for theaters are cancelled. Covid situation is also as great as ever, probably the best in SEA region right now, which I hope will stay that way, or get even better. The case number has been on downward trend for almost 5 months now and is the lowest since April 2020. So I don't think there's "uncertainty" here, at least until New Year. Pre-order has also started and it's through the roof. So maybe closer to $10m.

Ok thanks I put that because someone on the Indonesia thread said that certainly no movie will exceed $10M this year.

[LPLC]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$700M INT without China is possible. 

Yes in my update predictions, I put a $635M-$785M INT range so $700M INT without China would be great. This is the goal we can hope for.

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Yes in my update predictions, I put a $635M-$785M INT range so $700M INT without China would be great. This is the goal we can hope for.

true anything over that without china would be an even bigger overperformance.

[catlover]

6 hours ago, LPLC said:

Ok thanks I put that because someone on the Indonesia thread said that certainly no movie will exceed $10M this year.

 

Well he has the data, so he might be right. Even after all the things I said in my post, there are still restrictions that limit theater's max capacity and showtimes, therefore limit the box office potential for movies. I was just commenting about the Covid situation. And about how $5M would be way too low since even Eternals managed to make $6-7m.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, catlover said:

 

Well he has the data, so he might be right. Even after all the things I said in my post, there are still restrictions that limit theater's max capacity and showtimes, therefore limit the box office potential for movies. I was just commenting about the Covid situation. And about how $5M would be way too low since even Eternals managed to make $6-7m.

I was discussing with @newbie BO buff this morning. He expects 4K+ shows a day. If all goes well, they can deliver $5M+ weekend.

[titanic2187]

Any number that put NWH above Changjin Lake would put a smile on my face 

[Sophia Jane]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Any number that put NWH above Changjin Lake would put a smile on my face 

I will laugh,too.

I don't think our film deserve to be the worldwide champion before our film become international event,for now only Chinese people watch Chinese movie,It's just means our market is super big,not means our movie is popular globally

 

I think The three-body problem will be a good chance for Chinese film become international event because I heard this book is so popular in many countries

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Bruce

[peludo]

55 minutes ago, Bruce said:

I will laugh,too.

I don't think our film deserve to be the worldwide champion before our film become international event,for now only Chinese people watch Chinese movie,It's just means our market is super big,not means our movie is popular globally

 

I think The three-body problem will be a good chance for Chinese film become international event because I heard this book is so popular in many countries

 

I find a bit absurd to talk about deserving to be bigger or smaller in worldwide lists. China has the 20% of the worldwide population. What happens if a film is only big DOM+Europe, which "only" groups 850m people, 550m less than China? It is already a hit because that means it is big in 30 countries instead in only one when it has really been popular among way less population? Maybe we should start to talk about in how many markets a film is number 1 instead just adding the money grossed in each country.

 

I do not remember anybody complaining, for example, about Endgame's Chinese figure, which helped definitely to beat by a hair Avatar WW or about ratio which meant DOM+China relative to WW figure (over 50% against 33% of Avatar). China is great when it helps our favorite film, but now that they protect for whatever reason its industry, they are demons and the $900m grossed by a local film can be dismised because our favorite film is not being released there. I wish China could be a democracy and you could have a more open market where you can see more films beyond local films or HLW monsters, but I see too much fanboyism here.

[Legion Again]

I think the difference between a single market film and a global appeal is pretty clear. A movie which did 900M DOM and like 20M OS would feel equally weird as a “worldwide” #1.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[Sophia Jane]

 

 

16 minutes ago, peludo said:

I find a bit absurd to talk about deserving to be bigger or smaller in worldwide lists. China has the 20% of the worldwide population. What happens if a film is only big DOM+Europe, which "only" groups 850m people, 550m less than China? It is already a hit because that means it is big in 30 countries instead in only one when it has really been popular among way less population? Maybe we should start to talk about in how many markets a film is number 1 instead just adding the money grossed in each country.

 

I do not remember anybody complaining, for example, about Endgame's Chinese figure, which helped definitely to beat by a hair Avatar WW or about ratio which meant DOM+China relative to WW figure (over 50% against 33% of Avatar). China is great when it helps our favorite film, but now that they protect for whatever reason its industry, they are demons and the $900m grossed by a local film can be dismised because our favorite film is not being released there. I wish China could be a democracy and you could have a more open market where you can see more films beyond local films or HLW monsters, but I see too much fanboyism here.

If we talking about really globally phenomenon I think the movie should doing great everywhere

Avengers is not strong in Japan and some Europe countries,Star Wars is only popular in America and Europe...

The only two movie which popular everywhere in the entire movie history are Titanic and Avatar

Edited December 11, 2021 by Bruce

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, Bruce said:

I will laugh,too.

I don't think our film deserve to be the worldwide champion before our film become international event,for now only Chinese people watch Chinese movie,It's just means our market is super big,not means our movie is popular globally

 

I think The three-body problem will be a good chance for Chinese film become international event because I heard this book is so popular in many countries

 

Actually it is not about a Chinese film. It is about a terrible propaganda, self-absorb, Nazi-in making awful piece of garbage taking the so-called worldwide champion. I won't complain if it is Hi Mom that taking the slot.   

[charlie Jatinder]

Agree with @peludo here. Box office is box office. No matter if it come from just one territory or 50 small ones. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually it is not about a Chinese film. It is about a terrible propaganda, self-absorb, Nazi-in making awful piece of garbage taking the so-called worldwide champion. I won't complain if it is Hi Mom that taking the slot.   

Every country make films about their military glory. I am sure West would have made ton of them. Not a reason to counter for a film being #1 WW box office, though that's another matter it never had any chance as long as NWH was to be released this year.