No Way Home Weekend Thread | #RIP AIW Record | 260M OW DOM | 340M OS | 600M OW WW W/O CHINA

[Daxtreme]

Theaters here in Quebec are going back to 50% capacity starting Monday.

 

However, that's after OW, so should show no signs of deflation until then 

[baumer]

I think the covid situation in Canada is much worse, at least to our politicians, hence my low prediction.  The US is different, thankfully.

[The Panda]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

It wasn't that bad.

 

Ya'll really want Peter crying over Uncle Ben and having supervillian mentors for 8 movies.

Wont ease into spoilers in this thread. But the problem in the other Holland spideys is he’s relegated to Iron Man’s apprentice who makes fun of the other characters for being old. This also affects the action which is pretty poor in the past films. The essence of Spider-Man being Marvel’s struggling street fighter with a strong emotional core just is completely lacking in the MCU iterations until this one.

 

My rankings:

1. Spider-Verse

2. Spider-Man 2

3. Spider-Man

4. No Way Home

5. Spider-Man 3

6. Venom

7. TASM

8. Homecoming

9. TASM 2

10. FFH

 

havent seen Let there be carnage. I think 4 and above are good to great movies, everything below is mixed to bad.

Edited December 17, 2021 by The Panda

[SchumacherFTW]

50m Thursday eh? Same as Revenge of the Sith. Guess it won't go past 110m for FSS then 👀

[Krissykins]

40 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Mostly because everything that isn't a super-hero is a mega bomb.

Some horror films have been doing well too. 

[efialtes76]

Previews since 3PM.

The next big movie event will start at 12PM and we'll keep calling previews...

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by efialtes76

[MikeQ]

$50M in previews is absolutely insane - in a pandemic year and all. Before pre-sales exploded, I genuinely didn't think a solo Spidey film could open this huge, and yet here we are. The opening weekend is poised to be a huge increase from the previous instalment - and at the level of a Star Wars film (The Force Awakens) that opened with decades of pent up demand, or a team vehicle like the Avengers films. Truly remarkable, in my mind.

 

If Spidey has the same percentage of opening weekend from previews as the Skywalker Star Wars trilogy (which had between 20.5% to 23% of its opening weekends from previews) , we could be looking at an incredible ~$220-245M weekend. That said, MCU has shown a smaller share of opening weekend from previews, so could it go even higher? On the other hand, Spidey had previews that started at 3pm, which is probably the biggest stretch we've ever had in terms of a "preview" day. We're getting to the point where previews really means two days presented as one.

 

Regardless, the excellent critical and audience reception bodes extremely well for a massive, leggy run. I'm excited to follow the daily box office through the holidays - it's been so long since we've witnessed these huge numbers. Soak it all in!

 

Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time

 

Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

1. Avengers: Endgame — 60 million (38.1%)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57 million (47.9%)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home — 50 million (TBD%)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45 million (43.0%)
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%)
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — 40 million (44.6%)
7. Avengers: Infinity War — 39 million (36.7%)
8. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%)
9. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%)
10. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%)
11. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%)
12. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%)
13. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%)
14. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%)
15. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%)
16. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%)
17. Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%)
18. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%)
19. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (38.9%)
20. The Lion King (2019) — 23 million (29.5%)

Peace,

Mike

 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Theaters here in Quebec are going back to 50% capacity starting Monday.

 

However, that's after OW, so should show no signs of deflation until then 

 

It's not just Quebec though. With international travel bans with restaurants going down to a quarter of the capacity or in best case scenario is 50% and now theaters being relegated to 50% this is why I thought the movie would not open that well. But as I mentioned Canada is going full loony lockdown way before the US is so this film should be able to make a shitload of money before a lot of the restrictions affect it. I'm happy for theaters I'm happy that there will be lots of popcorn being sold this weekend and I hope everybody enjoys this film. It just looks like we're going back into lockdown mode soon and that really sucks.

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, efialtes76 said:

Previews since 3PM.

The next big movie event movie will start at 12PM and we'll keep calling previews...

 

[Tokugennumataka]

Incredible audience reception. Avatar Dom is in play imo. Won't be surprised if it creeps upto Endgame numbers. TFA like run incoming. 

[baumer]

@MikeQit's always great seeing you here buddy. I love your breakdowns and I love everything that you post here so keep it up my friend. I won't be around here much so I hope you have a really Merry Christmas and a fantastic holiday season. 🌲🎅🎅🎅⛄⛄

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It's not just Quebec though. With international travel bans with restaurants going down to a quarter of the capacity or in best case scenario is 50% and now theaters being relegated to 50% this is why I thought the movie would not open that well. But as I mentioned Canada is going full loony lockdown way before the US is so this film should be able to make a shitload of money before a lot of the restrictions affect it. I'm happy for theaters I'm happy that there will be lots of popcorn being sold this weekend and I hope everybody enjoys this film. It just looks like we're going back into lockdown mode soon and that really sucks.

Highly doubtfull, lockdown restrictions ? yes , full lockdown ? highly unlikely, covid cases have been surging for 1-2 months going record high in many countries and  only 3-4 countries have gone to a real lockdown and even them were/are small markets.Germany which  has a relative hardcore covid policy didnt go into a lockdown when the number where like 70k plus a day.I may very well be wrong but i dont see lockdown at least real ones being an issue worldwide.

 

As for canada your cases havent gone up dramatically and lower cap is more like a proactive decision and nothing more.

Edited December 17, 2021 by john2000

[Gavin Feng]

look the thread, what she said in movie is really right

 

Spoiler

MJ: you wouldn't be disappointed if you expect disappointment.

 

[Torontofan]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

I think the covid situation in Canada is much worse, at least to our politicians, hence my low prediction.  The US is different, thankfully.

 

People are willing to go watch this, its just the experts think locking down the vaccinated to protect the unvaccinated is valid. 

[Noctis]

God damn, this is fucking great news for the box office. The best thing Sony did with the marketing was not reveal Tyrell and Antoine. 

 

I can't wait to see it tomorrow!

[john2000]

Fantastic numbers , very curious to see how the rest of the weekend plays.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time

 

Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

1. Avengers: Endgame — 60 million (38.1%)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57 million (47.9%)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home — 50 million (TBD%)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45 million (43.0%)
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%)
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — 40 million (44.6%)
7. Avengers: Infinity War — 39 million (36.7%)
8. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%)
9. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%)
10. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%)
11. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%)
12. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%)
13. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%)
14. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%)
15. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%)
16. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%)
17. Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%)
18. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%)
19. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (38.9%)
20. The Lion King (2019) — 23 million (29.5%)

 

Just looking at some of these comps, and try to calculate all the variables, I'd say somewhere around 40-44% previews/full OD.

[john2000]

hopefully we get an A+ cinemascore, just for fun.

[ThomasNicole]

Incredible numbers, and the proof that people will see it what they want even during troubled times.

 

I hope we still get Batman in March, i can see this one doing +150M too.

 

Smaller movies is already starting the delays, and i understand because they're already suffering in better environments, but the bigger movies i think Spidey shows they can release.

 

 

[MikeQ]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

@MikeQit's always great seeing you here buddy. I love your breakdowns and I love everything that you post here so keep it up my friend. I won't be around here much so I hope you have a really Merry Christmas and a fantastic holiday season. 🌲🎅🎅🎅⛄⛄

 

Thanks, @baumer! Right back at you, friend - I always appreciate having you around. Hang in there, I don't think we'll be going into full lockdown mode ever again. I hope you have a very Merry Christmas, too. This time of year can be challenging for some, even in the best of times - hope it's filled with peace and happiness.

 

Peace,

Mike