The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Let's be real: Moonfall would've easily been a hit if they had put together a weepy Adam Lambert power ballad that was obviously designed with a Best Original Song Oscar nomination (it ended up not receiving) in mind to be featured in the marketing campaign.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by filmlover

[EmpireCity]

So much of box office tracking and the industry in general is data and statistics, but I have always let my feeling/intuition have a say as well.  

 

There are certain times you just get a feeling about a movie based on a confluence of different factors.  Post-pandemic I felt it with Free Guy and, sort of cheating, I felt it for sure after seeing Ghostbusters: Afterlife.  

 

Uncharted has entered the feeling stage.  I'm sure that isn't ground breaking for anyone as the factors are there, but this seems perfectly poised for a break out hit.  Tom Holland is enjoying the most exposure he has ever had and riding very high off Spider-Man: No Way Home.  Mark Whalberg is due for a statistical recovery.  It's big.  It's fun.  It has a large built in audience that is willing to go to a theater.  Nice 2 hour run time.  Tons of screen space.  Omicron will be way way down when it opens.  

 

It wouldn't shock me to see this pop off a $50m+ opening.  

Edited January 29, 2022 by EmpireCity

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

So much of box office tracking and the industry in general is data and statistics, but I have always let my feeling/intuition have a say as well.  

 

There are certain times you just get a feeling about a movie based on a confluence of different factors.  Post-pandemic I felt it with Free Guy and, sort of cheating, I felt it for sure after seeing Ghostbusters: Afterlife.  

 

Uncharted has entered the feeling stage.  I'm sure that isn't ground breaking for anyone as the factors are there, but this seems perfectly poised for a break out hit.  Tom Holland is enjoying the most exposure he has ever had and riding very high off Spider-Man: No Way Home.  Mark Whalberg is due for a statistical recovery.  It's big.  It's fun.  It has a large built in audience that is willing to go to a theater.  Nice 2 hour run time.  Tons of screen space.  Omicron will be way way down when it opens.  

 

It wouldn't shock me to see this pop off a $50m+ opening if the reviews aren't terrible.  

 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

It wouldn't shock me to see this pop off a $50m+ opening.  

 

Given the relatively weak current selection of films to see, I agree this is possible. Personally, I'm thinking closer to $40M but I wouldn't be shocked if people thought, "Oh yea this is a big/fun film starring Spider-Man." and it juiced it up a bit. 

[DAJK]

I’m pretty confident in 40M for Uncharted, as long as it’s decent. The fact that the market is DEAD right now also helps. Also... I’m willing to trust EC after he was spot-on for Free Guy.

 

Any specified date yet when Batman goes on sale?

[Old Spice]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’m pretty confident in 40M for Uncharted, as long as it’s decent. The fact that the market is DEAD right now also helps. Also... I’m willing to trust EC after he was spot-on for Free Guy.

 

Any specified date yet when Batman goes on sale?

 

February 10th.

[JonahVex]

What is the budget for Uncharted?

[misterpepp]

11 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

What is the budget for Uncharted?

 

NYT last year said it was $120 million.

[Alexander]

28 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

What is the budget for Uncharted?

$120m so let's be honest here: $35-40m OW should be the minimum for Sony.

[JonahVex]

Damn thats gonna be an uphill battle to break even but lets see how the reviews are

[thedast]

14 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

Damn thats gonna be an uphill battle to break even but lets see how the reviews are

There's probably some NDA situation in place but there's a high chance screenings for this (and maybe Morbius) started yesterday based on tweets from a couple of known reviewers.

 

[el sid]

The Uncharted tickets are also on sale in all of my theaters: It had a few minutes ago 227 sold tickets in 7 theaters for Thursday and 146 sold tickets for Friday, also in 7 theaters.
I guess many people don't know that the tickets are already on sale so these numbers are probably quite good and I don't think that the comps from e.g. Dune, Matrix or TSS make any sense because they would make it look worse than it is.
I guess its numbers on Monday will be a way better indicator.
But after all the disappointments I wait now till I say that I have a good feeling.

 

Moonfall had today 501 and 138 sold tickets for Thursday respectively Friday. Now the presales are not bad anymore but the first reviews. Great .

Jackass Forever had today 219 and 395 sold tickets. Solid.

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I’m willing to trust EC after he was spot-on for Free Guy.

He wasn't exactly right with Ghosbusters tho.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Shit will get real if NWH beats both Moonfall and Jackass on superbowl weekend. 

No chance

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

No chance

I mean, optimistically NWH is like 11M this weekend, 8-9M next weekend, 6-7 on SB before adjusting Sun? If Moonfall opens to 11 or whatever it could easily go below that. The hard ask is Jackass, but if it ends up at like a -2 z performance… 👀

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

I mean, optimistically NWH is like 11M this weekend, 8-9M next weekend, 6-7 on SB before adjusting Sun? If Moonfall opens to 11 or whatever it could easily go below that. The hard ask is Jackass, but if it ends up at like a -2 z performance… 👀

doubt

[EmpireCity]

26 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

He wasn't exactly right with Ghosbusters tho.

 

I effusively praised that it would do great and be a crowd pleasing and successful movie while a whole lot of others were swearing it would be a bomb.  

 

Did a $44m+ opening domestic, going to hit $130m+ domestic total and $225m or whatever overall during the Delta wave and start of the Omicron wave.  It's doing fantastic on PVOD streaming.  All of this on a $75m budget and they are going to make a shitload more getting paid for it the next 40 years on streaming.

 

I would say I was right enough.  

 

[fmpro]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I effusively praised that it would do great and be a crowd pleasing and successful movie while a whole lot of others were swearing it would be a bomb.  

 

Did a $44m+ opening domestic, going to hit $130m+ domestic total and $225m or whatever overall during the Delta wave and start of the Omicron wave.  It's doing fantastic on PVOD streaming.  All of this on a $75m budget and they are going to make a shitload more getting paid for it the next 40 years on streaming.

 

I would say I was right enough.  

 

I agree. It did what it possible could under the conditions of Covid. It had a great run and are still making money

[Maggie]

I don't think Ghostbusters will make 130M. They want it to pass the 2016 one tho

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Moonfall has potential. Big concept, action, online irony and memes. But betting on any original project nowadays is a death sentence. the bad reviews won't help. 8m seems right? Free Guy at least had the Marvel and Disney IP-catering and a big star in the lead. Hoping double digits for sake of the box office

 

Jackass won't hit the heights of 3D or even Bad Grandpa but fingers crossed. 12m seems ok. Would love 20m. The trailer was a hit and played for months. Marketing is playing up the nostalgia angle and seeing with your friends narrative.