The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

42 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I think Texas is a wash for tonight however. Probably Friday too.

 

Pretty sure showtimes are getting cancelled bc of the winter storm

Theaters are shut down here because of weather. Maybe they'll be back for Friday, who knows

[LegendaryBen]

13 hours ago, 21C said:

Yeah I still think that Jackass is gonna underperform and will barely cross the 10 million dollar mark if it even reaches it. If I'm wrong I'm wrong but I watched a clip and I'm still scratching my head as to why it's not a streaming show.

Please explain then why you think Moonfall will open better. 

[LegendaryBen]

17 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Jackass Forever (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
        7:00 pm: 53/135
        7:45 pm: 17/67
        9:20 pm: 6/67
        9:50 pm: 5/135
        10:35 pm: 2/67
    Total Sold: 83/471 (17.6% sold)

 

Comp:
Scream: $1.55 mil

 

    Friday:
        11:10 am: 2/85
        11:50 am: 0/67
        1:20 pm: 10/135
        2:00 pm: 0/85
        2:40 pm: 0/67
        4:10 pm: 21/135
        4:50 pm: 0/85
        5:30 pm: 2/67
        6:10 pm: 8/94
        7:00 pm: 63/135
        7:40 pm: 25/85
        8:20 pm: 6/67
        9:00 pm: 3/94
        9:50 pm: 42/135
        10:25 pm: 5/85
    Total Sold: 187/1,421 (13.2% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 270/1,892 (14.3% sold)

 

Comp:
Scream: $9.98 mil

 

I did not really feel like doing a lot of comps for this one. Judging by the ticket sales though, I'm extremely happy its doing well after a dire previous two weeks of no real big releases. 

 

Moonfall (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
    IMAX showings: 7/776
        6:00 pm: 6/388
        9:20 pm: 1/388
    2D showings: 5/156
        7:30 pm: 5/78
        10:40 pm: 0/78
    Total Sold: 12/932 (1.29% sold)

 

Comps: 
Snake Eyes: $454k
The Suicide Squad: $469k
Dune: $411k
Average: $445k

 

    Friday:
    IMAX showings: 7/1,552
        12:35 pm: 2/388
        3:55 pm: 2/388
        7:15 pm: 2/388
        10:35pm: 1/388
    2D showings: 13/312
        10:55 am: 2/78
        2:15 pm: 5/78
        5:35 pm: 4/78
        8:55 pm: 2/78
    Total Sold: 20/1,864 (1.07% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 32/2,796 (1.14% sold)

 

Comps:
Snake Eyes: $2.67 mil
The Suicide Squad: $2.31 mil
Dune: $1.21 mil
Average: $2.06 mil

 

Yeesh.

At this rate, I'd be surprised if Moonfall gets #2 this weekend. $6m OW is my prediction

[el sid]

The AMCs in the region in Texas where I look were open on both days. But the weather situation could explain why the number of presales for Friday decreased over the last two days. I was already wondering. 

In the AMC in Michigan all Thursday shows were cancelled but the increases on Friday were pretty good (e.g. the sales of Jackass almost doubled) so I guess people are optimistic that the Friday shows will stay. Hopefully.

Edited February 3, 2022 by el sid

[XXR & Friends]

Final Comps for Moonfall and Jackass Forever - 5PM CST - 24 Screen Theater in Houston, TX

 

Moonfall = 76 tickets sold

Jackass Forever = 51 tickets sold 

 

As discussed earlier, I don't really have comps yet but putting it against 'The 355' (31 tickets) we'd be looking at $860K for Moonfall and $580K for Jackass. Comped against 'Spider-Man: No Way Home' it would be $1M and $720K. 

I think JF is under-indexing here while Moonfall may be fairly spot on. Moonfall also has all of the PLF screens so that will help. Either way, my prediction is going to be $900K for Moonfall and $1.5M for Jackass Forever.

[DAJK]

Jackass just keeps going in Canada. If the great white north were any indication, I'd say previews would be on par with Scream.

[Eric the Minion]

19 hours ago, Eric Knoxville said:

Jackass Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	39	452	5569	8.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 116

 

Comp

0.413x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (1.69M)

1.487x of Free Guy T-1 (3.27M)

0.282x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-1 (1.27M)

0.323x of Scream T-1 (1.13M)

Jackass Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	39	697	5569	12.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 245

 

Comp

0.342x of The Suicide Squad (1.41M)

0.996x of Free Guy (2.19M)

0.314x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (1.41M)

0.321x of Scream (1.12M)

 

Yeah, still think high teens is happening.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Anything new on Uncharted?

[Eric the Minion]

20 hours ago, Eric Knoxville said:

Moonfall Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	245	7876	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

0.942x of Snake Eyes T-1 (1.32M)

0.224x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (918K)

0.139x of Dune T-1 (710K)

Moonfall Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	358	7876	4.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 113

 

Comp

0.549x of Snake Eyes (769K)

0.176x of The Suicide Squad (722K)

0.153x of Dune (781K)

 

Well it's predicting a pretty specific range here, so...guess ya gotta follow the range.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Jackass just keeps going in Canada. If the great white north were any indication, I'd say previews would be on par with Scream.

Scream Canada 2nd weekend was 1.7% of USA. OW was probably 1.4%. If all of Canada was open, that ratio would probably be 3.3% ish.

 

Jackass may be is better and closer to normal ratio. I suppose if it matches Scream in BC, probably mean 1.5M NA ratio.

[EmpireCity]

12 hours ago, filmlover said:

Now Showing: Fewer Movies. Theaters Brace for Dramatic Drop in New Films

Hollywood Studios Will Release Fewer Movies in Theaters in 2022 - Variety

 

This article is a bit off as well, part of the reason for the lower totals is the production and completion of films has caused an inventory shortage.  

 

Netflix is releasing like 81 films alone, but all but 3 are nothing worth writing home about.  They are just trying to churn out as much as they can.  

 

Either way, the last month was quite the eye opener at some of these major parent companies.  The stock prices are not responding well to the slow down in subscribers, which is of course natural.  

 

I talked to 2 different people at studios that are in theatrical distribution, and the tide is starting to turn back in theaters favor with the upper level people wondering how they can maximize other revenue streams before something goes to streaming.  

 

I laughed when I heard this.  Welcome back, parent company and studio heads.  Welcome back.  

[Eric the Minion]

22 hours ago, Eric Knoxville said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	219	10285	2.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

0.311x of F9 T-15 (2.21M)

0.879x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (3.61M)

0.396x of Venom 2 T-15 (4.6M)

0.559x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-15 (2.51M)

 

Hm...I guess yesterday was a blip (inb4 tomorrow only sells like 5 tickets)

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	244	10285	2.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp

0.927x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (3.8M)

0.385x of Venom 2 T-14 (4.47M)

0.581x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-14 (2.61M)

 

Forgot to track F9 T-14. It'll return tomorrow.

[charlie Jatinder]

Jackass Forever Harkins

 

California - 900/2970 (10 shows)

Phoenix 4 - 914/1853 (12 shows)

 

Total - 1814/4823 ($22,299) - 38%

 

Comps

55% of Scream Gross (60% admits) - $2M (adj. for CAN)

21% of Eternals Gross (23% admits) - $2M

42% of Halloween Kills Gross - $2.05M

 

Very strong occupancies in 8 cinemas. Missed PLFs. All comps point toward $2M, so I guess I should follow that. There could be overperformance in South West but HK comp is best performing comp and that did great here.

 

Still Philly seems low, so probably touch down a little for $1.8-1.9M THU.

 

Edited February 4, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Moonfall California Harkins

 

Normal - 112 on 9 shows

Cine 1 - 66 on 4 shows

 

Total - 178 

 

Yikes. This looks like $500K previews.

[filmlover]

I wonder when the embargo for Death on the Nile is supposed to drop. Unsurprisingly, no one from the movie is doing any promo for it.

[Eric the Minion]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I wonder when the embargo for Death on the Nile is supposed to drop. Unsurprisingly, no one from the movie is doing any promo for it.

Somebody on Letterboxd says it lifts on the 7th.

[CJohn]

I was really hoping that Jackass could surprise and pull 30M OW. Guess not. Oh well.

[charlie Jatinder]

If it truly open $2M THU, I guess can open $18-20M. Not bad in my books.

[cax16]

135-185(OW)

340-540 (dom total)

 

link seems broken so I just clicked back button and then clicked the Batman article again. 

 

[JonahVex]

3 day OW for Uncharted projected at 25-35m with a 60-85m total DOM run