The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Even Denver and Philly the comps just nosedived on the final day. Possibly Batman is just a very PS heavy franchise even when the buzz is good.

 

Well, what I was trying to say is that Denver and Sacto played very similarly in the end and contrasting them with Philly, which even if it didn't bust out still had a 2.6k final day with comps pointing much much higher than either @Inceptionzq or myself.

 

But I still don't love my methodology for 3pm start times and I don't know if Inceptionzq or Eric like it much on their end, either.  I got somewhat lucky with NWH by having a weighted average of two different sets of movies, so going forward I'm gonna try to see if I can at least make it more like my 4pm sample times. 

 

Main problem here is when there is 45 showtimes before 4pm spread out over 18 different theaters of various different companies.  Since I don't scrape I have to jump from theater to theater to theater. Even with various browser tabs and other things like checking out source code, it still eats up time and makes it more challengingly than even a 4pm'er.

 

Overall you are right though.  Just a tad worried that we all might be missing part of a window we'd normally get if we all take our samples an hour later.

 

Not that there's anything that can be done about it today.  This is more me musing out loud looking for solutions if it turns out there is a problem.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[Derpity]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Waiting for MTC data but nothing surprising so far. Going $19-21M previews and $100-130M OW.

 

lol $100m on the low end...you can't be serious? MTC pre-sales are way too robust for that, would need to be incredibly frontloaded.

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Captain Marvel:   1.0788x = 22.33m

Joker:                   2.0689x = 27.52m

 

But, don't forget that CM over-performed here and Joker underperformed.  Plus the difference in theater environment (staffing, perm closed locations, etc), so I would... not count on the Joker comp, personally.  No matter how much it might make excel happy   

 

And if Captain Marvel is at all close, it's more multiple factors cancelling each other out than anything else (Bats underperforming/theater environment/CM over-performing).

No I wanted to see if DC / Marvel ratio is sort of similar. Sacramento is still over indexing its pre-CoVID ratios, so the direct comp don't matter that much but DC comp being about 20% ahead of Marvel with trio of SC, BW and ET against TSS.

 

I suppose that sort of tells that Marvel comps don't matter that much for DC in Sacramento or they are basically suggesting same thing as TSS comp i.e. $20-21M.

[Porthos]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

No I wanted to see if DC / Marvel ratio is sort of similar. Sacramento is still over indexing its pre-CoVID ratios, so the direct comp don't matter that much but DC comp being about 20% ahead of Marvel with trio of SC, BW and ET against TSS.

 

I suppose that sort of tells that Marvel comps don't matter that much for DC in Sacramento or they are basically suggesting same thing as TSS comp i.e. $20-21M.

 

Well, CM over-performed even for a Marvel movie, I think.  But then we get into the specter that none of the other 2019 Marvel movies can be comped and 2018 might as well be a decade ago when trying to comp thanks to different theaters in this market, so we're then into unfalsifiable territory.  

 

Just don't think I have enough data points for DC, really, to make any sort of declarative judgement one way or the other. Or rather, I don't think there's enough data out of Sacto yet for me to draw any real conclusions.

[Boxofficerules]

Is it true that Batman is looking at a sub $50 million opening?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is it true that Batman is looking at a sub $50 million opening?

Whatever it takes for Pattinson porno.

Edited March 4, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[excel1]

If the actual numbers turn out as presales indicate, every major studio should concerned about the adult audience. The conditions couldn't be more ripe but if it only does $110m? That would be a scary reality for theaters.  The Batman should be doing 3x-4x what UNCHARTED did, not barely 2x. 

[ThomasNicole]

Looks like any hopes for 140-150M is dead 

 

But 19-20M true thu is good enough, and presales looks better for the weekend itself so i'm expecting 125-130M which is still a great result.

[Liiviig 1998]

Think people are getting carried away with 100m number

True Friday range I have seen 35-40m

Let me go with Charlie 20-21m preview number.

Let's go with low range Friday with Saturday being flat still gets it to 115m .

20+35+36+23

Still Thinking 120-130m OW

 

Atleast wait for the Friday number before going doom and gloom.

 

Sigh 150 is dead I guess . But it has march to itself and WOM looks good for now. That's what it has  going for it.

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[BruiseCruise]

atleast wait and see how walkups go before claiming 140-150 are dead, i mean DOG a drama aimed by adult women well outperformed all presales expectations

[HouseOfTheSun]

13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

If the actual numbers turn out as presales indicate, every major studio should concerned about the adult audience. The conditions couldn't be more ripe but if it only does $110m? That would be a scary reality for theaters.  The Batman should be doing 3x-4x what UNCHARTED did, not barely 2x. 

I think that points to ah issue with the IP more than anything. Uncharted did great and has held well. The character of Batman has been put through the shredder as a result of the Snyder movies. That is simply the truth based for the general audience.  We’re no longer in the late 2005-2012 period of time where the character was at its peak between the Nolan movies and Arkham games. Overexposure is also a factor.  

[Fox20]

40 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

atleast wait and see how walkups go before claiming 140-150 are dead, i mean DOG a drama aimed by adult women well outperformed all presales expectations

Because 15M and 140M are so similar.

[snarkmachine]

I think Batman as IP is too big to fail - I don’t buy the $100m predictions.

 

Pattinson is a big name, it’s a brand new director and a brand new universe, trailers have been received well - I don’t see any reason Snyderverse reception should deter people

Edited March 4, 2022 by snarkmachine

[BruiseCruise]

7 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

Because 15M and 140M are so similar.

Dog was predicted to have like 10m 4 day weekend and did 18m

 

Batman overperforming by 10-15m over the weekend considering the scope of the film isn't some crazy notion

Uncharted also overpowerformed, people were saying 30-35m 4 day and it did 51m 

 

Jumping from 130 to 140/150 isn't some crazy leap if walkups are really good on saturday/sunday

Edited March 4, 2022 by BruiseCruise

[excel1]

17 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I think that points to ah issue with the IP more than anything. Uncharted did great and has held well. The character of Batman has been put through the shredder as a result of the Snyder movies. That is simply the truth based for the general audience.  We’re no longer in the late 2005-2012 period of time where the character was at its peak between the Nolan movies and Arkham games. Overexposure is also a factor.  

 

It is not as oversaturated as Spider-man before the Holland films. It could be that the Nolan shadow is just too grand. Tough to say. I look at the mega flop of Matrix and possible Batman letdown and think the issue with people in that age range. They may have had an early theater retirement relative to past generations and that's highly concerning. 

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

I understand your concerns, but can we please wait until after we get some raw numbers for Batman before we go all doom and gloom? There's no need to do this whole Monday Morning Quarterback schtick when it isn't even midnight on the East Coast. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Crazy a Batman movie that rules this much wouldn’t make all the bank 

[Liiviig 1998]

10 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I think that points to ah issue with the IP more than anything. Uncharted did great and has held well. The character of Batman has been put through the shredder as a result of the Snyder movies. That is simply the truth based for the general audience.  We’re no longer in the late 2005-2012 period of time where the character was at its peak between the Nolan movies and Arkham games. Overexposure is also a factor.  

Then aquaman wouldn't have made a fricking billion . Yes synderverse definitely had an effect on the dceu  .The MCU brand always helps future installments box office but since synderverse faltered every DC movie survives by its own merit .On that point I can agree .

But the batman IP just like Spiderman is still popular and can bring audiences to cinema. 

This movie is clearly skewing adult , families as an audience are severely hampered, tedious runtime and of course tone. WOM let's wait for CinemaScore and see where it lands. But it's just started its box office run so let's table that discussion until it's run is done.

 

I know people are going to say MCU boosted Spiderman which I agree with but Sony first run into the ground with the Garfield movies. If this movies were good and not derivative ,they would have made way more money and I can guarantee you Spiderman would have remained exclusively Sony.

 

Batman and Spiderman IP have been big for decades and they will continue to do so. 

 

Now back to DC and surviving on its own merit . Every DC movie after aquaman.

 

Shazam - Good reception stateside but it was trounced by EG . Reception OS was tepid. Was still quite profitable 74m acc to deadline.

 

Joker - not dceu and was very different from standard CBM. Viral marketing campaign, good WoM .

 

BOP .- mixed WOM and suicide squad baggage

 

WW84 - covid, terrible WOM need I say more.  Yeah Hbo max day and date.

 

TSS - suicide squad 2016 baggage, questionable marketing in regards to the title of the film, WOM was fine among GA not exceptional,Hbomax day and date.

 

None of the subsequent films past aquaman with exception of joker has had Good Wom .

 

Batman should be fine 725-800m WW.

 

All eyes are now on flash and black Adam. 

 

 

 

[excel1]

14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Crazy a Batman movie that rules this much wouldn’t make all the bank 

 

Plenty of time...

[Orestes]

15 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Crazy a Batman movie that rules this much wouldn’t make all the bank 

Blame the last Batman movie. Same thing happened with Batman Begins, and that one had way more distance from the previous stinker.