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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Black Phone T-16 Jax 6 16 3 22 1,959 1.12%
    Phx 5 13 0 22 2,108 1.04%
    Ral 7 18 0 25 1,933 1.29%
  Total   18 47 3 69 6,000 1.15%
Black Phone (EA) T-8 Jax 2 2 0 1 141 0.71%
    Phx 2 2 1 4 229 1.75%
    Ral 1 1 0 0 91 0.00%
  Total   5 5 1 5 461 1.08%
Elvis T-16 Jax 6 26 7 62 4,520 1.37%
    Phx 6 16 13 47 2,103 2.23%
    Ral 8 20 14 48 2,074 2.31%
  Total   20 62 34 157 8,697 1.81%
Elvis (EA) T-14 Jax 2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
  Total   2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
JW3 Dominion T-2 Jax 7 109 354 1,819 16,155 11.26%
    Phx 6 91 232 1,623 15,670 10.36%
    Ral 8 85 230 1,617 9,690 16.69%
  Total   21 285 816 5,059 41,515 12.19%
JW3+JP T-2 Jax 5 5 4 194 811 23.92%
    Phx 6 6 3 390 638 61.13%
    Ral 7 7 12 216 688 31.40%
  Total   18 18 19 800 2,137 37.44%
Lightyear T-9 Jax 5 69 14 14 9,714 0.14%
    Phx 2 17 12 12 1,839 0.65%
    Ral 7 30 22 22 2,692 0.82%
  Total   14 116 48 48 14,245 0.34%
Lightyear (EA) T-8 Jax 2 2 1 1 403 0.25%
  Total   2 2 1 1 403 0.25%
Minions 2 T-23 Jax 6 101 11 11 16,556 0.07%
    Phx 6 66 43 43 12,191 0.35%
    Ral 8 52 13 13 6,699 0.19%
  Total   20 219 67 67 35,446 0.19%

 

I'm over 750 shows and Lightyear is still missing theaters.  JW3 is also missing a theater in Phoenix that usually goes on sale Monday of release week and sells out most of its shows. If they don't add preview shows then I'll have to adjust comps a little.

 

JW3 T-2 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.238x (16.34m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .806x (14.19m)

 - Eternals - 1.677x (15.93m)

 - F9 - 2.92x (20.76m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.08x (15.89m)

 - Dune - 3.357x (17.12m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.64x (19.24m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.415x (21.25m)

(Throwing in more comps as we get closer to release)

 

Lightyear T-9 comps

 - Bad Guys - 1.17x (1.35m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 3.43x (4.49m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .57x (2.58m)

(Only been on sale a few hours so not really helpful)

 

Black Phone T-16 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .296x (1.23m)

 - Morbius - .196x (1.12m)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.214m)

(Don't have many options this far out)

 

Elvis T-16 comps

 - No Time to Die - .571x (2.5m)

 - F9 - .312x (2.21m)

 - Ghostbusters - .674x (2.8m)

 

Minions 2 T-23 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .52x (2.61m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Black Phone T-15 Jax 6 16 -2 20 1,959 1.02%
    Phx 5 13 0 22 2,108 1.04%
    Ral 7 18 3 28 1,933 1.45%
  Total   18 47 1 70 6,000 1.17%
Black Phone (EA) T-2 Jax 1 1 19 19 60 31.67%
    Phx 1 1 17 17 106 16.04%
  Total   2 2 36 36 166 21.69%
Elvis T-15 Jax 6 26 7 69 4,520 1.53%
    Phx 6 16 7 54 2,103 2.57%
    Ral 8 20 9 57 2,074 2.75%
  Total   20 62 23 180 8,697 2.07%
Elvis (EA) T-13 Jax 2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
  Total   2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
JW3 T-1 Jax 7 115 395 2,214 16,584 13.35%
    Phx 7 106 351 1,974 16,534 11.94%
    Ral 8 87 235 1,852 9,858 18.79%
  Total   22 308 981 6,040 42,976 14.05%
JW3+JP T-1 Jax 5 5 4 198 811 24.41%
    Phx 6 6 21 411 638 64.42%
    Ral 7 7 18 234 688 34.01%
  Total   18 18 43 843 2,137 39.45%
Lightyear T-8 Jax 6 81 107 121 11,193 1.08%
    Phx 6 69 112 124 11,262 1.10%
    Ral 8 34 45 67 3,581 1.87%
  Total   20 184 264 312 26,036 1.20%
Lightyear (EA) T-7 Jax 3 3 18 19 600 3.17%
    Phx 1 1 4 4 410 0.98%
    Ral 1 1 0 0 261 0.00%
  Total   5 5 22 23 1,271 1.81%
Minions 2 T-22 Jax 6 101 7 18 16,556 0.11%
    Phx 6 66 13 56 12,191 0.46%
    Ral 8 52 11 24 6,699 0.36%
  Total   20 219 31 98 35,446 0.28%

 

Added 100 shows between all movies yesterday :(

 

JW3 T-1 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.292x (17.058m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .822x (14.47m)

 - Eternals - 1.768x (16.79m)

 - F9 - 2.77x (19.66m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.07x (15.71m)

 - Dune - 3.426x (17.47m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.31x (17.89m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.466x (21.7m)

Another good day against most of the comps.  Sticking with 17.5m for now

 

Lightyear T-8 comps

 - Bad Guys - 5.67x (6.52m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 12x (15.72m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 2.92x (13.19m)

 - Sonic 2 - .607x (3.02m)

Really good first day.  I'm not sure why the bad reactions yesterday from a few hours of sales.  This could be a great run

 

Black Phone T-15 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .241x (998k)

 - Morbius - .172x (978k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Don't have many options this far out)

 

Elvis T-15 comps

 - No Time to Die - .508x (2.64m)

 - F9 - .333x (2.36m)

 - Ghostbusters - .619x (2.57m)

 

Minions 2 T-22 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .62x (3.11m)

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LegendaryBen Sleeper Hit

LegendaryBen

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Black Phone T-15 comps

 

 - Ghostbusters - .241x (998k)

 - Morbius - .172x (978k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Don't have many options this far out)

 

Do you have Scream, Conjuring 3, Old, Candyman as comps?

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Really good first day.  I'm not sure why the bad reactions yesterday from a few hours of sales.  This could be a great run

 

BOT is all about premature meltdowns and drama. It would feel alien if that didn't exist.

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Black Phone T-15 Jax 6 16 -2 20 1,959 1.02%
    Phx 5 13 0 22 2,108 1.04%
    Ral 7 18 3 28 1,933 1.45%
  Total   18 47 1 70 6,000 1.17%
Black Phone (EA) T-2 Jax 1 1 19 19 60 31.67%
    Phx 1 1 17 17 106 16.04%
  Total   2 2 36 36 166 21.69%
Elvis T-15 Jax 6 26 7 69 4,520 1.53%
    Phx 6 16 7 54 2,103 2.57%
    Ral 8 20 9 57 2,074 2.75%
  Total   20 62 23 180 8,697 2.07%
Elvis (EA) T-13 Jax 2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
  Total   2 2 0 65 403 16.13%
JW3 T-1 Jax 7 115 395 2,214 16,584 13.35%
    Phx 7 106 351 1,974 16,534 11.94%
    Ral 8 87 235 1,852 9,858 18.79%
  Total   22 308 981 6,040 42,976 14.05%
JW3+JP T-1 Jax 5 5 4 198 811 24.41%
    Phx 6 6 21 411 638 64.42%
    Ral 7 7 18 234 688 34.01%
  Total   18 18 43 843 2,137 39.45%
Lightyear T-8 Jax 6 81 107 121 11,193 1.08%
    Phx 6 69 112 124 11,262 1.10%
    Ral 8 34 45 67 3,581 1.87%
  Total   20 184 264 312 26,036 1.20%
Lightyear (EA) T-7 Jax 3 3 18 19 600 3.17%
    Phx 1 1 4 4 410 0.98%
    Ral 1 1 0 0 261 0.00%
  Total   5 5 22 23 1,271 1.81%
Minions 2 T-22 Jax 6 101 7 18 16,556 0.11%
    Phx 6 66 13 56 12,191 0.46%
    Ral 8 52 11 24 6,699 0.36%
  Total   20 219 31 98 35,446 0.28%

 

Added 100 shows between all movies yesterday :(

 

JW3 T-1 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.292x (17.058m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .822x (14.47m)

 - Eternals - 1.768x (16.79m)

 - F9 - 2.77x (19.66m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.07x (15.71m)

 - Dune - 3.426x (17.47m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.31x (17.89m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.466x (21.7m)

Another good day against most of the comps.  Sticking with 17.5m for now

 

Lightyear T-8 comps

 - Bad Guys - 5.67x (6.52m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 12x (15.72m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 2.92x (13.19m)

 - Sonic 2 - .607x (3.02m)

Really good first day.  I'm not sure why the bad reactions yesterday from a few hours of sales.  This could be a great run

 

Black Phone T-15 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .241x (998k)

 - Morbius - .172x (978k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Don't have many options this far out)

 

Elvis T-15 comps

 - No Time to Die - .508x (2.64m)

 - F9 - .333x (2.36m)

 - Ghostbusters - .619x (2.57m)

 

Minions 2 T-22 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .62x (3.11m)

Could good wom save this movie's previews or maybe weekend? Because the general public at my early screening were pumped out of their minds after it was over.

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BruiseCruise Box Office Gold

BruiseCruise

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Could good wom save this movie's previews or maybe weekend? Because the general public at my early screening were pumped out of their minds after it was over.

Good WOM can save any movies OW regardless of critical reviews (uncharted being the most recent example)

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted

I sincerely believe we're underestimating Jurassic World Dominion here. But it's better that than overzealous. I personally thought it was the weakest of the World movies as a fan of JW1 and Fallen Kingdom because of some cringey dialogue and really bad editing choices but no one of my audience genuinely cared.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

 

Do you have Scream, Conjuring 3, Old, Candyman as comps?

IIRC, Conjuring didn’t run previews because it was a day & date release w/ HBO and didn’t drop until midnight pacific (WB later pulled back on that policy)

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I sincerely believe we're underestimating Jurassic World Dominion here. But it's better that than overzealous. I personally thought it was the weakest of the World movies as a fan of JW1 and Fallen Kingdom because of some cringey dialogue and really bad editing choices but no one of my audience genuinely cared.

We dont go by gut but by actual presales data here. There is no question of underestimating or anything. Final surge have been just meh. Studio decision to hold reviews have backfired. Overall social media reactions have been strongly negative. Now all that is left is walkups tomorrow. Let us see how things go but I am confident this is not going to do something crazy like open > 200m. Just not possible from where it is now. Even the release looks smaller than TGM from 2 weeks ago. 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I sincerely believe we're underestimating Jurassic World Dominion here. But it's better that than overzealous. I personally thought it was the weakest of the World movies as a fan of JW1 and Fallen Kingdom because of some cringey dialogue and really bad editing choices but no one of my audience genuinely cared.

Question for you: how old/young was this audience? 

 

Because if there still is some underestimation/late surge coming it’s going to be from under 25 demo, as WOM won’t be good enough to peel away the older adults from scratching their nostalgia itch with excellent TG2 

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