The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

It’s not a reduction in rush, it’s an expansion in available show times and a larger timeframe in which to spread them out.

I mean when people decide to buy their tickets knowing that there are way more showtimes and you can more likely than not walk up and still get a good seat. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4 (Fri)	PLF	84	3,899	3,899	17,309	22.53%	$15.69	$61,181.94
		Standard	150	2,455	2,455	20,498	11.98%	$11.59	$28,455.66
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		234	6,354	6,354	37,807	16.81%	$14.11	$89,637.60

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4 (Fri)	N	119	4,710	4,710	19,270	24.44%	$14.92	$70,293.92
		Y	115	1,644	1,644	18,537	8.87%	$11.77	$19,343.68
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		234	6,354	6,354	37,807	16.81%	$14.11	$89,637.60

 

Went ahead and took a look at Friday presales in Santikos.  I only have a few comps where I pulled Friday numbers on Wednesday:

 

Thor 4 Friday T-2 comps

 - NWH - .378x (27.19m)

 - Batman - .987x (34.55m)

 - TG2 - 1.295x (42.37m)

 - JW3 - .769x (31.97m)

 - DS2 - missed (~29.2m)

 

These are not very inspiring numbers, especially against the other MCU films.  I'm not as worried since we are coming off a holiday and are in the middle of summer, but still a little concerning.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Fri)	PLF	85	704	4,603	17,501	26.30%	$15.62	$71,900.34
		Standard	154	718	3,173	20,768	15.28%	$11.55	$36,642.54
	Total		239	1,422	7,776	38,269	20.32%	$13.96	$108,542.88

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Fri)	N	122	943	5,653	19,598	28.84%	$14.83	$83,813.72
		Y	117	479	2,123	18,671	11.37%	$11.65	$24,729.16
	Total		239	1,422	7,776	38,269	20.32%	$13.96	$108,542.88

 

Pretty good day for Friday sales as well.  Just like preview sales, the jump was more consistent with non-MCU movies.

 

T-2 to T-1 Friday sales increases

 - NWH - 8%

 - Batman - 22.5%

 - TG2 - 23.7%

 - JW3 - 23.1%

 - Thor 4 - 22.4%

(missed DS2 T-2 update)

 

Thor Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .428x (30.8m)

 - Batman - 1.005x (35.19m)

 - DS2 - .583x (31.93m)

 - TG2 - 1.344x (43.96m)

 - JW3 - .76x (31.65m)

 

I also ran comparisons for T-1 to T-0 increases for the Thu and Fri for each movie to give a target for tomorrow's run.  Looking to finish around 11.2k

 

Hypothetical Fri T-0 comps

 - NWH - 37.35m

 - Batman - 40.09m

 - DS2 - 38.69m

 - TG2 - 43.66m

 - JW3 - 31.43m

 

Current Friday prediction: 39.5m

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

It’s not a reduction in rush, it’s an expansion in available show times and a larger timeframe in which to spread them out.

But Thor 4 is only 7 minutes shorter than MoM, don't think you can squeeze another showtimes in a single screen on a single day from this "saving". 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

But Thor 4 is only 7 minutes shorter than MoM, don't think you can squeeze another showtimes in a single screen on a single day from this "saving". 

I’m talking about an overall showtime increase due to the more recent change of 3PM start times VS later start times a few years ago. Not MoM vs L&T.

[katnisscinnaplex]

There are likely a number of factors contributing to the backloading of presales.  The two I think are most to blame (is that the right word) are 1: summer/holiday vacation week (families out of town/on the road) and 2: lack of urgency to see this in comparison to the spoiler potential from DS2 and NWH.  Remember, NWH and DS2 both started shows at 3pm as well, and I believe both had more show times available (will confirm tomorrow).  

[Eric Prime]

On 7/5/2022 at 9:49 PM, EmpireCity said:

 

[Super Pets] Thursday morning.  Easter Sunday goes on sale tomorrow.  

Doesn't seem like that's the case. Can't get tickets for either, and we're well past noon. Did they update at the last minute?

[charlie Jatinder]

It's mostly Summer. The early start of previews don't really mean much in non-holidays but in holidays whether its XMAS or Summer, the early start makes THU basically an OD.

 

I was expecting FRI to be impacted a bit, but seems like discounting of matinee tickets is reducing the gross for previews, cancelling out some impact for THU/OD ratio. 

[keysersoze123]

At least at MTC2 its about 22% fewer shows for Thor compared to DS2. It could be bcos of lower PS, chains are having fewer shows. MTC1 16% fewer shows comparing wed/wed update. That said show capacity is not a constraint for Thor BO. it has enough for a breakout. 

[charlie Jatinder]

shows are never an issue unless you are hitting $50M or so.

[M37]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

At least at MTC2 its about 22% fewer shows for Thor compared to DS2. It could be bcos of lower PS, chains are having fewer shows. MTC1 16% fewer shows comparing wed/wed update. That said show capacity is not a constraint for Thor BO. it has enough for a breakout. 

Overall show capacity may not be a restraint, but if Thor is skewing more fan-ish (as the disparity in tracking samples suggests), towards PLF and metro markets, than there still could be a mismatch between supply and demand in a micro sense, with sell-outs for premium formats and shows generally in larger markets, with a whole lot of unused supply in lower-tiered markets. And without the spoiler fear/sense of urgency as NWH or MoM, is the audience more patient, skipping a Thursday standard show in favor of waiting for an IMAX/PLF over the weekend? (That dynamic would also help push up ATP for Thursday, but also suggests an IM on the lower side)

[EmpireCity]

51 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Doesn't seem like that's the case. Can't get tickets for either, and we're well past noon. Did they update at the last minute?

 

I show then on sale all over and tickets selling.  

[EmpireCity]

Whoops.  Disregard.  There are some rogue theaters that have them up, but the actual on sale date is Tuesday, July 12th.  

[EmpireCity]

Double fuck up.  Easter Sunday on sale tomorrow.  

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

37 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I show then on sale all over and tickets selling.  

 

30 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Whoops.  Disregard.  There are some rogue theaters that have them up, but the actual on sale date is Tuesday, July 12th.  

 

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Double fuck up.  Easter Sunday on sale tomorrow.  

[Tinalera]

Thor4 

Thurs/Fri (t-1 friday t-0 last count for Thurs)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	192	12736	31294	44030	0.2892
Fri	20	275	9710	55262	64972	0.1494

 

Comps

x2.217 Jurassic Dominion(7.31 million Canada only, 130 million US/Canada)

Doctor Strange was Missed

 

 

It doesn't affect the numbers in anyway, but I discovered that my # of shows was actually 100 more than it was...because I was.....going by the numbers down the side of excel....had put Thor below as I had other stuff on top...and the thor count started at 100...and all this time I wasn't deducting that.....

 

But it seat count, percentages, all the other stuff is totally fine, isnt' affected in the stats...but I just discovered it today and though I'd come clean....ahem....

[ZackM]

Final Thor4 presales run:

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	66	182	737	358	0
Seats Added	3,399	15,669	80,875	33,239	0
Seats Sold	45,823	41,682	26,190	16,409	10,747
7/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,871	407,822	1,254,375	32.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	61	375	994	1,768
ATP
$16.13

 

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$25.6	$25.9	$23.5	$26.6	$27.2	$28.3
T-1	$25.3	$25.7	$23.1	$26.2	$27.1	$28.6
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Final Thor4 presales run:

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	66	182	737	358	0
Seats Added	3,399	15,669	80,875	33,239	0
Seats Sold	45,823	41,682	26,190	16,409	10,747
7/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,871	407,822	1,254,375	32.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	61	375	994	1,768
ATP
$16.13

 

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$25.6	$25.9	$23.5	$26.6	$27.2	$28.3
T-1	$25.3	$25.7	$23.1	$26.2	$27.1	$28.6
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

@ZackM you had posted that final PS run for DS2 happened at 2PM EST. Is this similar. So 45,823 vs 55,979. Looks ar around 510K finish. Like for Like around 500K. ~ 26m previews 

 

 

On 5/5/2022 at 4:56 PM, ZackM said:

Sorry for the delay...got held up with some work stuff.  Here are the final presale numbers from a ~2pm run:

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	63	193	961	662	6
Seats Added	2,684	13,944	95,395	64,909	1,591
Seats Sold	55,979	38,340	38,455	27,969	19,401
5/5/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	430	9,368	557,134	1,401,453	39.75%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	17	205	759	1,689	2,777
ATP
$15.96

 

 

 

Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Comps
	Spider-Man: No Way Home		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	$33.0	$36.9	$32.9	$30.4	$33.0	$34.7
T-1	$32.9	$36.7	$33.9	$30.9	$33.2	$34.7
T-2	$32.6	$36.5	$34.9	$31.6	$33.3	$34.9
T-3	$32.1	$35.9	$35.3	$31.8	$33.0	$34.6
T-4	$31.1	$34.9	$35.8	$32.0	$32.4	$34.0
T-5	$30.4	$34.2	$35.7	$31.8	$31.9	$33.5
T-6	$30.2	$34.0	$35.9	$31.9	$31.7	$33.3
T-7	$29.9	$33.5	$35.9	$31.9	$31.5	$33.0
T-8	$29.5	$33.0	$35.5	$31.5	$31.1	$32.6

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Hmm. Nice call @M37

[keysersoze123]

On 7/6/2022 at 7:49 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Thor Love and Thunder MTC2 previews - 166921/609257 2307067.32 4127 shows +18733

 

I thought it looked better yesterday evening after a partial run. But tuesday data also is not great. Let us see where it takes us today. 

Thor Love and Thunder MTC2 previews - 203898/736234 2777207.90 5344 shows +36977

 

This is my final update as I cannot do a full run anymore. I will try to get a projection based on sample data tomorrow morning. Slightly below MTC1 in trend but I believe we are looking around 26m previews at this point. 

[M37]

13 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Final Thor4 presales run:

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	66	182	737	358	0
Seats Added	3,399	15,669	80,875	33,239	0
Seats Sold	45,823	41,682	26,190	16,409	10,747
7/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,871	407,822	1,254,375	32.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	61	375	994	1,768
ATP
$16.13

 

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0	$25.6	$25.9	$23.5	$26.6	$27.2	$28.3
T-1	$25.3	$25.7	$23.1	$26.2	$27.1	$28.6
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

A tad lower than I had penciled in for this checkpoint, pacing ahead of Strange (+12.7% vs +11.2% as compared to T-1), but probably not to the level that puts a 150K+ final day in play 

 

Denver and Sacto are the two updates I’m most interested in seeing, given their similar surges on Wednesday