The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Liiviig 1998]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins Final

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
546	125,909	47,726	37.91%	$550,788	$11.54

 

+22,546 final day. Excellent closing to the campaign. This includes 290 tix in Thor Marathon show with $11.6K gross. 

 

Comps

0.828x of Doctor Strange admits - $30M

2.901x of Eternals admits - $27.6M

2.253x of Black Widow admits - $30.98M

 

$30M seems good. +/- $500K

What is Friday looking like based on presales.

Fri and sat will be very interesting to see .

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

What is Friday looking like based on presales.

Fri and sat will be very interesting to see .

Naa it won't be interesting at all. It is rather very boring. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:15 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope Harkins T-17 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
141	40,340	242	0.60%	$3,250	$13.43

 

It's better than The Black Phone but nothing concrete to say yet. 

Nope Harkins T-14 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
141	40,340	302	0.75%	$4,240	$14.04

 

+60 in 3 days. Probably around 500-600 at T-7 days. Let's see.

 

Comps

0.666x of Minions - $7.1M

0.331x of Shang Chi - $2.98M

 

A very bad comp but whatever, that's all I have. I guess take mid point of two for around $5M.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:06 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Where The Crawdads Sing Harkins T-10 Days

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	5	731	66	9.03%	$824	$12.48
Thursday	96	15,667	78	0.50%	$882	$11.31
Total	101	16,398	144	0.88%	$1,706	$11.85

 

Don't really have any comps at the moment, but looks like will be similar to The Black Phone first numbers I had at T-6

Where the Crawdads Sing Harkins T-7 Days

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	5	731	128	17.51%	$1,617	$12.63
Thursday	95	16,046	147	0.92%	$1,686	$11.47
Total	100	16,777	275	1.64%	$3,303	$12.01

 

Hmm. Better than The Black Phone was at T-6 i.e. 203. $2.5M previews can happen.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/5/2022 at 12:26 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Paws of Fury Harkins T-10 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
102	16,040	11	0.07%	$106	$9.64

 

Shall be worth having comps I guess. 

Paws of Fury Harkins T-7 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
97	15,505	22	0.14%	$230	$10.45

 

Woah. Doubled in 3 days.

[Krissykins]

Long range Forecast reduced 3 upcoming releases by 10-21%: Paws, Crawdads and Nope all down. 

[CJohn]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Long range Forecast reduced 3 upcoming releases by 10-21%: Paws, Crawdads and Nope all down. 

And they will keep going down until release day.

[filmlover]

Yeah, the buzz for Nope does feel curiously muted the closer we're getting to release. Whatever the reason is we'll find out soon enough, I suppose.

 

Also here is the early long range tracking for the August 5 releases (minus Bodies Bodies Bodies).

 

 

Bullet Train

Opening: $28,000,000 – $34,000,000

Total: $85,000,000 – $120,000,000

 

Easter Sunday

Opening: $14,000,000 – $19,000,000

Total: $48,000,000 – $70,000,000

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Bullet Train and Easter Sunday - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/1/2022 at 8:28 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Minions 2	3,602	152,458		122,793	29,665	2,676	16,063
Top Gun 2	3,187	58,693	-17.87%	56,434	2,259	792	0
Elvis	3,251	48,112	-35.93%	47,820	292	0	0
Jurassic World 3	3,068	46,698	-36.84%	45,268	1,430	39	1,169
Lightyear	3,029	44,478	-46.05%	43,840	638	0	506
The Black Phone	2,696	44,306	-26.15%	44,176	130	0	0
Mr. Malcolm's List	1,263	17,592		17,568	24	0	0
Doctor Strange 2	439	2,837	-83.49%	2,802	35	0	35
Everything Everywhere	503	2,739	-0.98%	2,739	0	0	0
The Bad Guys	232	1,405	-66.46%	1,396	9	0	9
Downton Abbey 2	199	1,207	-56.01%	1,207	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 7/1/22 weekend (3-day)

 

OW shows comps

Minions 2 - 152,458 (3,602 TC) (29,665 PLF)

 - Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392) (35,389)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273) (13,022 IMAX)

 - Black Widow - 156,781 (3,409) (19,112 IMAX)

Mr. Malcolm's List - 17,592 (1,263 TC)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

 - The Outfit - 16,122 (1,207)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055)

 

T-1 Week

Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087 TC) (35,960 PLF)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125) (14,002)

 - TG2 - 130,398 (3,199) (15,559)

 - NWH - 135,877 (3,146) (25,877)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 226 (225 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 5,157 (1,803 TC)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

Paws of Fury - 5,351 (1,755 TC)

 - The Bad Guys - 4,606 (1,929)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Nope - 8,197 (2,086) (2,025 PLF)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267) (1,785 IMAX)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,639 (2,272) (956)

 

US showtime sample for 7/8/22 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change*	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Thor 4	3,540	194,969		154,911	40,058	5,964	23,730
Minions 2	3,442	96,027	-24.93%	89,388	6,639	0	6,187
Top Gun 2	2,985	41,333	-29.58%	41,195	138	6	0
Elvis	3,059	34,088	-29.15%	34,013	75	0	0
Jurassic World 3	2,716	31,368	-32.83%	30,949	419	0	338
The Black Phone	2,271	31,189	-29.61%	31,134	55	0	0
Lightyear	1,764	19,656	-55.81%	19,512	144	0	98
Mr. Malcolm's List	1,002	4,472	-71.82%	4,464	8	0	0
Everything Everywhere	181	1,113	-59.36%	1,113	0	0	0
Marcel the Shell	40	695		695	0	0	0

*Updated reporting to exclude previews from week two change*

 

OW shows comps

Thor 4 - 194,969 (3,540 TC) (40,058 PLF)

 - DS2 - 229,917 (3,660) (42,543)

 - TG2 - 182,709 (3,834) (16,305)

 - NWH - 206,421 (3,340) (28,624)

 

T-1 Week

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 233 (231 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 29,677 (2,121 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

Paws of Fury - 31,294 (2,060 TC)

 - The Bad Guys - 33,132 (2,264)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - 7,844 (572 TC)

 - Spencer - 8,816 (703)

 - Family Camp - 8,851 (622)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Nope - 8,442 (2,194) (2,037 PLF)

 - Eternals - 9,541 (2,473) (2,172)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177) (1,890)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316) (1,979)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Super-Pets - 861 (188 TC)

(Pretty useless with only 188 theaters posting so far)

 

T-4 Weeks Previews

Easter Sunday - 2,853 (1,085 TC)

 - Black Phone - 2,277 (887)

 - Downton Abbey - 3,057 (1,982)

 - Father Stu - 3,871 (1,325)

 

 

If anyone has any feedback on the showtime report (changes/ideas/different layout/stop doing it/etc), please let me know!

Edited July 8, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Fixed Malcolm change to exclude previews

[Joyous Legion]

Wow, holdovers are keeping a lot of volume on the face of a 200k

[XXR & Friends]

21 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

If anyone has any feedback on the showtime report (changes/ideas/different layout/stop doing it/etc), please let me know!

Can you have it posted by 845 EST? It’s valuable insight for the Derby lol

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/7/2022 at 8:49 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-7	Jax	6	18	3	68	1,884	3.61%
		Phx	5	15	3	27	1,833	1.47%
		Ral	7	22	7	137	2,101	6.52%
ATP: 12.2	Total		18	55	13	232	5,818	3.99%
Crawdads (EA)	T-6	Jax	1	1	0	22	86	25.58%
	Total		1	1	0	22	86	25.58%
Nope	T-14	Jax	7	50	0	84	8,422	1.00%
		Phx	6	20	7	126	4,344	2.90%
		Ral	8	25	13	113	3,411	3.31%
	Total		21	95	20	323	16,177	2.00%
Paws of Fury	T-7	Jax	6	24	2	9	2,292	0.39%
		Phx	5	16	0	11	1,628	0.68%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
ATP: 11.28	Total		18	60	2	36	5,904	0.61%
Thor 4	T-0	Jax	7	151	764	4,177	20,225	20.65%
		Phx	7	141	785	4,732	19,975	23.69%
		Ral	8	113	698	4,410	13,018	33.88%
ATP: 14.06	Total		22	405	2,247	13,319	53,218	25.03%

 

Crawdads T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .665x (2.13m)

 - NTTD - .34x (1.76m)

 - Dune - .282x (1.44m)

 

Paws of Fury T-7 comps

 - Bad Guys - .621x (714k)

 - Lightyear - .094x (462k)

 

Nope T-14 comps

 - NTTD - .839x (4.36m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.31x (5.36m)

 - F9 - .567x (4.02m)

 

Thor 4 T-0 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .642x (23.13m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.47x (25.86m)

 - No Way Home - .429x (21.45m)

 - Black Widow - 2.3x (30.36m)

 - JW3 - 1.61x (29.03m)

 

Not quite the pace I was hoping for over the last two days, but certainly could have been worse.  With one update* to go, I'll put my early prediction at 25m.

 

*I've got a work meeting at 2pm when I would normally run the early shows.  Maybe will be able to multitask.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-6	Jax	6	18	6	74	1,884	3.93%
		Phx	5	15	4	31	1,833	1.69%
		Ral	7	22	24	161	2,101	7.66%
	Total		18	55	34	266	5,818	4.57%
Crawdads (EA)	T-5	Jax	1	1	2	24	86	27.91%
	Total		1	1	2	24	86	27.91%
Nope	T-13	Jax	7	50	5	89	8,422	1.06%
		Phx	6	20	18	144	4,344	3.31%
		Ral	8	25	4	117	3,411	3.43%
	Total		21	95	27	350	16,177	2.16%
Paws of Fury	T-6	Jax	6	24	0	9	2,292	0.39%
		Phx	5	16	4	15	1,628	0.92%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
	Total		18	60	4	40	5,904	0.68%

 

Ahh finished today's run in 11 minutes!

 

Crawdads T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .733x (2.34m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - .5x (1.85m)

 - Black Phone - 1.97x (5.12m)

 

Paws of Fury T-6 comps

 - Bad Guys - .645x (742k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .93x (837k)

 - Encanto - .488x (732k)

 

Nope T-13 comps

 - NTTD - .854x (4.44m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.31x (5.37m)

 - F9 - .547x (3.88m)

 - Morbius - .7x (3.97m)

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Can you have it posted by 845 EST? It’s valuable insight for the Derby lol

Was gonna make a joke about PMing it to me at 5:50 before posting at 6:05 😂

[katnisscinnaplex]

I usually start compiling it before 7EST.  It's all manual and it takes a couple of hours to pull everything together unfortunately.

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-1 Friday(331 showings): 8904(+1965)/79863

0.632x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (34.57M) [+2089]

1.03x Batman T-1 (36.20M)

0.330x NWH T-1 (23.76M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-0 Friday(335 showings): 11597(+2693)/80391

0.632x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (36.90M) [+3102]

1.06x Batman T-0 (37.06M)

0.375x NWH T-0 (26.99M)

 

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Friday(415 showings): 24881(+4486)/54887 ATP: $14.88

0.763x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (41.77M) [+3471]

0.987x Batman T-1 (34.54M)

0.673x NWH T-1 (48.43M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Friday(415 showings): 29702(+4821)/54887 ATP: $14.72

0.812x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (44.45M) [+3973]

1.04x Batman T-0 (36.45M)

0.703x NWH T-0 (50.58M)

 

If previews do end up being around 29M, then Megaplex Doctor Strange, Batman, and Drafthouse Doctor Strange Thursday comps all were close. But for Friday the Drafthouse DS comp is very different from the Megaplex DS and Batman comps. So I guess I'll just go with the average of the 3 which is 39.5M. Hopefully walkups can be a bit stronger than that and give us over 40M, but we'll see with the WoM

[M37]

47 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I usually start compiling it before 7EST.  It's all manual and it takes a couple of hours to pull everything together unfortunately.

Us Derby freaks are mostly joking, post whenever it’s convenient for you. It’s just a little disheartening to plug in an estimate for say Mr Malcom’s List … and then find out 30 minutes after lock that it’s dropping 71% of its shows in week 2

 

On a serious note, one data point that might be interesting to track is $/show, to see how theaters are allocating their finite screen resources. For example, last week TGM posted $441/show ($25.9M/56.7K shows), and this week - using the PBO’s forecast - it’s projected to gross $454/show, an increase. Suggests there might be some capacity struggles, particularly if it’s being moved out of larger auditoriums for Thor

[ZackM]

Final Thor4 numbers...West coast ended up adding a lot in the late evening and one of the theaters that had been erroring out finally worked on my final run, so Central time got a small boost across the board.

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
	Walkups	Last Day Presales	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	66	182	737	358
Seats Added	0	3,399	15,669	80,875	33,239
Seats Sold	115,379	45,823	41,682	26,190	16,409
7/8/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,871	523,201	1,254,375	41.71%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	9	141	692	1,689	2,769
ATP
$15.84

 

 

Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp		Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp
3:00-3:59	32,725	55.5%	86.4%		3:00-3:59	19,778	53.0%	94.5%
4:00-4:59	20,129	54.2%	82.0%		4:00-4:59	10,220	46.5%	77.4%
5:00-5:59	12,836	40.2%	74.7%		5:00-5:59	7,384	40.1%	70.4%
6:00-6:59	36,565	70.4%	82.8%		6:00-6:59	24,415	69.3%	92.3%
7:00-7:59	37,822	58.9%	79.0%		7:00-7:59	21,524	51.6%	70.9%
8:00-8:59	22,977	51.7%	74.1%		8:00-8:59	13,166	47.1%	72.3%
9:00-9:59	35,080	82.9%	86.0%		9:00-9:59	20,201	90.1%	94.6%
10:00-10:59	24,972	48.4%	82.3%		10:00-10:59	11,448	34.5%	66.0%
11:00-11:59	6,251	43.6%	76.3%		11:00-11:59	2,446	23.5%	65.2%
12:00+	3,276	47.6%	65.8%		12:00+	1,872	32.7%	94.5%
Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Thor: Love & Thunder - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp		Showtimes	Sales	NWH Comp	DS2 Comp
3:00-3:59	5,618	60.5%	98.3%		3:00-3:59	17,003	57.2%	84.8%
4:00-4:59	3,152	59.7%	92.4%		4:00-4:59	10,051	50.2%	84.5%
5:00-5:59	2,370	55.4%	89.8%		5:00-5:59	7,886	52.3%	76.3%
6:00-6:59	6,245	75.1%	87.3%		6:00-6:59	17,802	67.8%	78.1%
7:00-7:59	5,208	53.6%	75.1%		7:00-7:59	17,632	58.2%	75.4%
8:00-8:59	3,354	64.0%	85.0%		8:00-8:59	13,589	63.4%	82.8%
9:00-9:59	5,449	95.9%	100.6%		9:00-9:59	17,400	93.6%	84.2%
10:00-10:59	2,334	27.0%	54.3%		10:00-10:59	13,004	47.5%	72.3%
11:00-11:59	747	21.5%	106.1%		11:00-11:59	4,515	24.7%	61.9%
12:00+	379	25.3%	71.6%		12:00+	4,376	33.1%	66.2%

 

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	$28.2	$28.4	$27.1	$30.3	$29.4	$30.2
T-0	$25.6	$25.9	$23.5	$26.6	$27.2	$28.3
T-1	$25.3	$25.7	$23.1	$26.2	$27.1	$28.6
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Fri)	PLF	85	704	4,603	17,501	26.30%	$15.62	$71,900.34
		Standard	154	718	3,173	20,768	15.28%	$11.55	$36,642.54
	Total		239	1,422	7,776	38,269	20.32%	$13.96	$108,542.88

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Fri)	N	122	943	5,653	19,598	28.84%	$14.83	$83,813.72
		Y	117	479	2,123	18,671	11.37%	$11.65	$24,729.16
	Total		239	1,422	7,776	38,269	20.32%	$13.96	$108,542.88

 

Pretty good day for Friday sales as well.  Just like preview sales, the jump was more consistent with non-MCU movies.

 

T-2 to T-1 Friday sales increases

 - NWH - 8%

 - Batman - 22.5%

 - TG2 - 23.7%

 - JW3 - 23.1%

 - Thor 4 - 22.4%

(missed DS2 T-2 update)

 

Thor Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .428x (30.8m)

 - Batman - 1.005x (35.19m)

 - DS2 - .583x (31.93m)

 - TG2 - 1.344x (43.96m)

 - JW3 - .76x (31.65m)

 

I also ran comparisons for T-1 to T-0 increases for the Thu and Fri for each movie to give a target for tomorrow's run.  Looking to finish around 11.2k

 

Hypothetical Fri T-0 comps

 - NWH - 37.35m

 - Batman - 40.09m

 - DS2 - 38.69m

 - TG2 - 43.66m

 - JW3 - 31.43m

 

Current Friday prediction: 39.5m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Fri)	PLF	85	1,543	6,146	17,501	35.12%	$15.35	$94,359.05
		Standard	155	1,920	5,093	20,804	24.48%	$11.23	$57,173.59
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		240	3,463	11,239	38,305	29.34%	$13.48	$151,532.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Fri)	N	122	1,861	7,514	19,598	38.34%	$14.53	$109,146.94
		Y	118	1,602	3,725	18,707	19.91%	$11.38	$42,385.70
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		240	3,463	11,239	38,305	29.34%	$13.48	$151,532.64

 

Shockingly coming in right where predicted.  I used 11,275 for the hypothetical comps yesterday, so here are the final numbers.

 

Thor Fri T-0 comps

 

 - NWH - .517x (37.23m)

 - Batman - 1.14x (39.96m)

 - DS2 - .705x (38.56m)

 - TG2 - 1.33x (43.53m)

 - JW3 - .753x (31.33m)

 

I'll do some adjusted comps once we get the Thursday number.  Sticking with 39.5m true Friday for now though.

[BruiseCruise]

Same True Friday as MInions, who could have seen that coming

[keysersoze123]

Looking at final zack data and sample data I got for CIN, I think previews will be 28.5-29m range. My final number is 28.8m.  its amazing almost all projections honed in around that number. Amazing final 2 days for Thor as well. Now on to friday where we can rely on empire and charlie to provide BO numbers.