The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Bodies Bodies Bodies on sale here for weekend of August 12 (my birthday FYI), so limited August 5th. Still think it could breakout? It's original A24 horror/comedy so presales could be all over the place

 

AMC sales so far

Thursday 11th (4)

7 (4)

Friday 12th (1)

150 (0), 430 (0), 710 (1), 950 (0)

I could see it ending up with a similar total to Ready or Not ($28M), which was also a well-reviewed August horror comedy.

[Goldenhour36]

7 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

I have a feeling that movie theatres are in for a really rough couple months. 

 

There's only a total of 5 movies that are opening wide in August (Bullet Train, Bodies Bodies Bodies, Fall, Beast, The Invitation).

Bullet Train could reach $30 million OW, but everything else could easily struggle to reach $10 million. 

 

September is also bleak with only Barbarian, The Woman King, Pearl, Smile and Bros. 

None of those will go over $20 million OW. 

You forgot about Mack and Rita but that movie will most likely open Sub $1M since it being distributed by Gravitas Venture, which do a awful job on marketing.

[BruiseCruise]

Hopefully the Jaws/ET/NWH/Avatar re-releases do decent business and lift up theaters 

[motionpic05]

Kind of an odd question, but is it possible that the major chains close some theatres with the lack of product until October when things pick up again?

Edited July 28, 2022 by motionpic05

[Mojoguy]

Superpets should make little impact on Minions 2. Should have released Pets in May cause Minions was obviously a bigger threat than Lightyear.

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Hopefully the Jaws/ET/NWH/Avatar re-releases do decent business and lift up theaters 

i only see Avatar making money, ET, Jaws , NWH will be making under 10 million unless getting 2000k+ screen push

[Mojoguy]

19 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Kind of an odd question, but is it possible that the major chains close theatres again with the lack of product until October when things pick up again?

I can see some theaters showing super old family animated movies like Shrek 2, Minions 1, Rango, and Ice Age 13 for discount $5 prices to lure families inside and buy popcorn.

 

My Regal did something similar during a slow summer a few years back.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Mojoguy

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

17 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Hopefully the Jaws/ET/NWH/Avatar re-releases do decent business and lift up theaters 

 

I didn't know ET and Jaws were getting re-releases. Might watch those. I already planned to rewatch Avatar and NWH in theaters.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, motionpic05 said:

I have a feeling that movie theatres are in for a really rough couple months. 

 

There's only a total of 5 movies that are opening wide in August (Bullet Train, Bodies Bodies Bodies, Fall, Beast, The Invitation).

Bullet Train could reach $30 million OW, but everything else could easily struggle to reach $10 million. 

 

September is also bleak with only Barbarian, The Woman King, Pearl, Smile, Don't Worry Darling and Bros. 

None of those will go over $20 million OW. 

Bros and DWD will go over 20m 

[Borf the Borf]

42 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Kind of an odd question, but is it possible that the major chains close some theatres with the lack of product until October when things pick up again?

See onre of issues with theater is not much you can do with them, they are hard to repurpose, even temporarily, for a ton of reason.  I guess it depends when it was built, but older ones basically can only be movie theaters.  Like think how big the room is the cost to maintain temperature would mean even if you could utilize sq footage floor space the cost of maintain tempter would would be several times higher.  Theaters dying wasnt a consideration when they were built.


Sure other known better but I think rent insurance etc. are huge portions of overhead and unaffected by worthier yuou open or not./  Like whatever policies you have to cover customers wont be paused.    Also if you shut your door people will think you are closed and harder to get them back so they likely would take an L waiting for Holidays 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

i only see Avatar making money,

 

question is how much

[Ryan Reynolds]

26 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

question is how much

if they treat it like a full blown re-release it should do as well as Jurassic 3D in 2013

[Borf the Borf]

 

GOnna track my local AMC/ Tampa area preview for Super Pets.  No comps or predictions  just be measure through out day to get a sense of walk up numbers and trends specific to today 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[p a p i]

5 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Bros and DWD will go over 20m 

Maybe DWD. Bros won't. 

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

I can see some theaters showing super old family animated movies like Shrek 2, Minions 1, Rango, and Ice Age 13 for discount $5 prices to lure families inside and buy popcorn.

 

My Regal did something similar during a slow summer a few years back.

 

Make it $2, and you might get audiences:)!  That's the current price for Regal's kid summer movies...

 

Best $2 plan they have b/c no one walks in and watches without concessions, and the summer camp kids who attend tend to have entire meals in front of them!  Same as at Cinemark's $1.50 summer (why yes, I've been to these at both theaters again this summer, and yes, it was not my choice to watch Peter Rabbit 2 yesterday, but I'll say the price was what I'd pay to ever see that movie:)...

[M37]

On 7/25/2022 at 11:20 PM, Eric the Superdog said:

1.886x of The Bad Guys T-3 (2.17M)

22 hours ago, Eric the Superdog said:

1.891x of The Bad Guys T-2 (2.17M)

8 hours ago, Eric the Superdog said:

1.881x of The Bad Guys T-1 (2.16M)

 

Some nice consistency there, give the smaller sales numbers/higher variability. If it holds, would expect a final tally of 706 (+414), seems like a good baseline on which to judge walk-ups for today

 

 

 

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

Kind of an odd question, but is it possible that the major chains close some theatres with the lack of product until October when things pick up again?

No. Even decades before the pandemic, the late August through Labor Day weekend stretch was referred to as "the dog days of summer" for a really good reason despite the occasional hit released during that time frame.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-8	Jax	7	51	2	68	9,463	0.72%
		Phx	6	27	-1	118	6,010	1.96%
		Ral	8	31	1	57	4,009	1.42%
	Total		21	109	2	243	19,482	1.25%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	6	4	31	1,331	2.33%
		Phx	1	1	0	23	208	11.06%
		Ral	1	1	5	19	261	7.28%
	Total		7	8	9	73	1,800	4.06%
Dragon Ball	T-22	Jax	6	26	8	95	5,795	1.64%
		Phx	6	22	9	161	4,486	3.59%
		Ral	7	21	0	113	2,812	4.02%
	Total		19	69	17	369	13,093	2.82%
Easter Sunday	T-8	Jax	6	15	0	20	2,232	0.90%
		Phx	5	13	0	6	1,595	0.38%
		Ral	7	15	-1	3	1,695	0.18%
	Total		18	43	-1	29	5,522	0.53%
Super Pets	T-1	Jax	6	49	26	81	6,093	1.33%
		Phx	6	35	20	69	4,902	1.41%
		Ral	7	34	38	146	4,220	3.46%
	Total		19	118	84	296	15,215	1.95%
Vengeance	T-1	Jax	4	8	8	26	583	4.46%
		Phx	5	10	4	24	1,122	2.14%
		Ral	4	6	3	13	458	2.84%
	Total		13	24	15	63	2,163	2.91%

 

Super Pets T-1 comps

 - Minions 2 - .172x (1.85m)

 - Sonic 2 - .211x (1.05m)

 - Bad Guys - 1.9.5x (2.24m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .641x (1.73m)

 - Paws of Fury - 2.99x (1.51m)

 - Lightyear - .25x (1.23m)

 - Encanto - .955x (1.43m)

 

Seems like we'll converge in the 1.5m-1.6m range

 

Working on automating a chart to track how comps change over time.  Minions and Sonic are taking opposite paths; Jungle Cruise has been steady.  

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4
Minions 2	0.000	0.000	0.172	0.182	0.214	0.215
Sonic 2		0.000	0.211	0.198	0.197	0.171
Bad Guys	0.000	0.000	1.947	1.767	1.813
Jungle Cruise	0.000	0.000	0.641	0.646	0.728	0.647
Paws of Fury	0.000	0.000	2.990	3.118	3.222	2.694
Lightyear	0.000	0.000	0.251	0.232	0.240
Encanto	0.000	0.000	0.955	0.876	0.911	0.815

 

Vengeance T-1 comps

 - Stillwater -  1.34x (375k)

 - Roadrunner - .589x (118k)

 - Ambulance - .481x (337k)

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-8 comps

 - Dune - .327x (1.67m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .41x (2.15m)

 - F9 - .27x (1.92m)

 - Lost City - 1.45x (3.62m)

 - Morbius - .332x (1.89m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-7	Jax	7	51	8	76	9,463	0.80%
		Phx	6	27	11	129	6,010	2.15%
		Ral	8	31	9	66	4,009	1.65%
	Total		21	109	28	271	19,482	1.39%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	6	6	37	1,331	2.78%
		Phx	1	1	7	30	208	14.42%
		Ral	1	1	0	19	261	7.28%
	Total		7	8	13	86	1,800	4.78%
Dragon Ball	T-21	Jax	6	26	9	104	5,795	1.79%
		Phx	6	22	20	181	4,486	4.03%
		Ral	7	21	10	123	2,812	4.37%
	Total		19	69	39	408	13,093	3.12%
Easter Sunday	T-7	Jax	6	15	1	21	2,232	0.94%
		Phx	5	13	1	7	1,595	0.44%
		Ral	8	17	1	4	1,821	0.22%
	Total		19	45	3	32	5,648	0.57%
Super Pets	T-0	Jax	6	49	48	129	6,093	2.12%
		Phx	7	40	34	103	5,266	1.96%
		Ral	7	37	81	227	4,575	4.96%
	Total		20	126	163	459	15,934	2.88%
Vengeance	T-0	Jax	4	8	7	33	583	5.66%
		Phx	6	13	16	40	1,254	3.19%
		Ral	5	7	5	18	501	3.59%
	Total		15	28	28	91	2,338	3.89%

 

Super Pets T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - .154x (1.66m)

 - Sonic 2 - .262x (1.3m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.115x (2.43m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .673x (1.82m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.45x (1.74m)

 - Lightyear - .266x (1.31m)

 - Encanto - 1.02x (1.52m)

 

Improved against every comp (not too hard to do when starting with a fraction of the sales.  Still thinking around 1.6m previews but maybe a little higher

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4
Minions 2	0.000	0.154	0.172	0.182	0.214	0.215
Sonic 2		0.262	0.211	0.198	0.197	0.171
Bad Guys	0.000	2.115	1.947	1.767	1.813
Jungle Cruise	0.000	0.673	0.641	0.646	0.728	0.647
Paws of Fury	0.000	3.450	2.990	3.118	3.222	2.694
Lightyear	0.000	0.266	0.251	0.232	0.240
Encanto	0.000	1.020	0.955	0.876	0.911	0.815

 

 

Vengeance T-0 comps

 - Stillwater -  1.358x (380k)

 - Roadrunner - .659x (132k)

 - Ambulance - .538x (377k)

 

380k anyone?

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Dune - .33x (1.68m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .395x (2.05m)

 - F9 - .281x (1.99m)

 - Lost City - 1.355x (3.39m)

 - Morbius - .346x (1.97m)

 - Free Guy - 1.694x (3.73m)

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Improved against every comp (not too hard to do when starting with a fraction of the sales.  Still thinking around 1.6m previews but maybe a little higher

Sub-20M opening if that occurs.

[Krissykins]

I think Smile could surprise and go over $20m. That trailer was pretty buzzy and played before Top Gun.