The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

I'm pretty amused by how the trailer for The Invitation seems to play out like a Wikipedia-style synopsis of the entire movie. How shameless lmao.

[Eric Burnett]

12 minutes ago, Lestranger said:

"Bullet Train continues to display encouraging potential in pre-sales, social metrics, and traditional tracking ahead of next week’s release. The last remaining piece of the puzzle will be reviews and how they might impact opening weekend interest." BO Pro

 

Just a random question, is there any place to find tracking info, probably not since it is mostly done internally, but just curious 

There is actually. There's this website called The Quorum which publicly shows awareness and interest metrics for upcoming movies. It's a really great resource

 

https://thequorum.com/

[THUNDER BIRD]

9 hours ago, filmlover said:

DC brand would carry them to big numbers.

Gee, i wonder why, DC brand can't carry DC brand to big numbers.

 

BTW just seeing, this isn't to flame a fan war, just saying i think DC is a damaged brand so i don't think it can help much. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by THUNDER BIRD

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/28/2022 at 8:47 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-7	Jax	7	51	8	76	9,463	0.80%
		Phx	6	27	11	129	6,010	2.15%
		Ral	8	31	9	66	4,009	1.65%
	Total		21	109	28	271	19,482	1.39%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	6	6	37	1,331	2.78%
		Phx	1	1	7	30	208	14.42%
		Ral	1	1	0	19	261	7.28%
	Total		7	8	13	86	1,800	4.78%
Dragon Ball	T-21	Jax	6	26	9	104	5,795	1.79%
		Phx	6	22	20	181	4,486	4.03%
		Ral	7	21	10	123	2,812	4.37%
	Total		19	69	39	408	13,093	3.12%
Easter Sunday	T-7	Jax	6	15	1	21	2,232	0.94%
		Phx	5	13	1	7	1,595	0.44%
		Ral	8	17	1	4	1,821	0.22%
	Total		19	45	3	32	5,648	0.57%
Super Pets	T-0	Jax	6	49	48	129	6,093	2.12%
		Phx	7	40	34	103	5,266	1.96%
		Ral	7	37	81	227	4,575	4.96%
	Total		20	126	163	459	15,934	2.88%
Vengeance	T-0	Jax	4	8	7	33	583	5.66%
		Phx	6	13	16	40	1,254	3.19%
		Ral	5	7	5	18	501	3.59%
	Total		15	28	28	91	2,338	3.89%

 

Super Pets T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - .154x (1.66m)

 - Sonic 2 - .262x (1.3m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.115x (2.43m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .673x (1.82m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.45x (1.74m)

 - Lightyear - .266x (1.31m)

 - Encanto - 1.02x (1.52m)

 

Improved against every comp (not too hard to do when starting with a fraction of the sales.  Still thinking around 1.6m previews but maybe a little higher

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4
Minions 2	0.000	0.154	0.172	0.182	0.214	0.215
Sonic 2		0.262	0.211	0.198	0.197	0.171
Bad Guys	0.000	2.115	1.947	1.767	1.813
Jungle Cruise	0.000	0.673	0.641	0.646	0.728	0.647
Paws of Fury	0.000	3.450	2.990	3.118	3.222	2.694
Lightyear	0.000	0.266	0.251	0.232	0.240
Encanto	0.000	1.020	0.955	0.876	0.911	0.815

 

 

Vengeance T-0 comps

 - Stillwater -  1.358x (380k)

 - Roadrunner - .659x (132k)

 - Ambulance - .538x (377k)

 

380k anyone?

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Dune - .33x (1.68m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .395x (2.05m)

 - F9 - .281x (1.99m)

 - Lost City - 1.355x (3.39m)

 - Morbius - .346x (1.97m)

 - Free Guy - 1.694x (3.73m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-6	Jax	7	52	14	90	9,681	0.93%
		Phx	6	29	23	152	6,222	2.44%
		Ral	8	31	11	77	4,009	1.92%
	Total		21	112	48	319	19,912	1.60%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	6	14	51	1,331	3.83%
		Phx	1	1	4	34	208	16.35%
		Ral	1	1	8	27	261	10.34%
	Total		7	8	26	112	1,800	6.22%
Dragon Ball	T-20	Jax	6	26	5	109	5,795	1.88%
		Phx	6	22	2	183	4,486	4.08%
		Ral	7	21	19	142	2,812	5.05%
	Total		19	69	26	434	13,093	3.31%
Easter Sunday*	T-6	Jax	6	20	11	32	2,835	1.13%
		Phx	6	18	2	9	2,255	0.4%
		Ral	8	21	1	5	2,224	0.22%
	Total		20	59	14	46	7,314	0.63%

 

*I added the "Live with Jo Koy " showings for Easter Sunday.  That accounts for 8 of the new tickets.

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-6 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - NTTD (Thu) - missed

 - F9 - .306x (2.17m)

 - Lost City - 1.571x (3.93m)

 - Morbius - .381x (2.17m)

 - Free Guy - 1.571x (3.46m)

 

Easter Sunday T-6 comps

 - Massive Talent (Thu) - 1.07 (749k)

 - Vengeance - 2.42x

 - Elvis - .127x (406k)

Edited July 30, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex

[Krissykins]

11 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

83 Verified Audience score

Do children use RT though? I think the Cinemascore will be more reflective surely. 
 

It’s still at 83% with fewer than 50 votes. 
 

$20m+ would be solid as I’m guess it’ll have a leggy run throughout August. The next family film isn’t until October. 

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Gee, i wonder why, DC brand can't carry DC brand to big numbers.

 

BTW just seeing, this isn't to flame a fan war, just saying i think DC is a damaged brand so i don't think it can help much. 

tbh I don't think even a similar version of a movie like this with Marvel characters would be enticing on a massive scale either. The juvenile premise would've handicapped its potential all the same. Lightyear already proved this summer that audiences, including families, are averse to projects that reek of "cash grab."

Edited July 29, 2022 by filmlover

[Tinalera]

Bullet Train

SW/Toronto Ontario T-7(no comps yet)

 

Train	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	79	165	19382	19547	0.0084
Fri	20	106	179	26123	26302	0.0068

[stripe]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/28/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
8/5/2022	Bullet Train	$30,000,000 – $40,000,000	+13%	$95,000,000 – $125,000,000	+3%	Sony Pictures
8/5/2022	Easter Sunday	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	-31%	$27,000,000 – $48,000,000	-31%	Universal Pictures
8/12/2022	Mack & Rita	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000		$8,000,000 – $25,000,000		Gravitas Ventures
8/12/2022	Summering					Bleecker Street Media
8/19/2022	Beast	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	+4%	$31,000,000 – $49,000,000	+4%	Universal Pictures
8/19/2022	Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	NEW	$20,000,000 – $35,000,000	NEW	Sony / Crunchyroll
8/26/2022	The Invitation	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	NEW	$20,000,000 – $35,000,000	NEW	Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022	Fear					Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Invitation - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

@Shawn
What about Bodies, Bodies, Bodies? Reviews are more than fine and it is opening wide August 12th... 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/28/2022 at 10:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Super Pets	Standard	46	238	520	6,676	7.79%	$10.39	$5,401.71
	Super Pets Total		46	238	520	6,676	7.79%	$10.39	$5,401.71
T-1	Super Pets (Fri)	PLF	12	12	16	3,321	0.48%	$12.69	$203.02
		Standard	100	127	542	14,193	3.82%	$10.54	$5,710.62
	Super Pets (Fri) Total		112	139	558	17,514	3.19%	$10.60	$5,913.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Super Pets	N	24	106	232	3,427	6.77%	$12.31	$2,854.98
		Y	22	132	288	3,249	8.86%	$8.84	$2,546.73
	Super Pets Total		46	238	520	6,676	7.79%	$10.39	$5,401.71
T-1	Super Pets (Fri)	N	38	47	287	6,008	4.78%	$12.16	$3,489.71
		Y	74	92	271	11,506	2.36%	$8.94	$2,423.93
	Super Pets (Fri) Total		112	139	558	17,514	3.19%	$10.60	$5,913.64

 

Super Pets Thu T-0 comps

 - Minions - .164x (1.77m)

 - Sonic 2 - .257x (1.28)

 - Bad Guys - 3.44x (3.96m)

 - Lightyear - .367x (1.8m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.91x (2.98m)

 

I'll go with 1.9m previews based on Santikos. 

 

Super Pets Fri T-1 comps

 - Minions - .136x (5.12m)

 - Paws of Fury - 4.195x (8.13m)

 

Thursday final day (+84%) was closer to Minions (+76%) than Paws (+184%).  If Friday follows, we could see somewhere are +130% compared to Minions (+121%) and Paws (+182%).  That would put average Friday comps right at 6m.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Super Pets (Fri)	PLF	12	205	221	3,321	6.65%	$13.27	$2,931.86
		Standard	101	710	1,252	14,243	8.79%	$10.23	$12,802.20
	Total		113	915	1,473	17,564	8.39%	$10.68	$15,734.06
T-1	Super Pets (Sat)	PLF	12	34	34	3,321	1.02%	$11.88	$403.88
		Standard	99	474	474	14,095	3.36%	$9.59	$4,544.54
	Total		111	508	508	17,416	2.92%	$9.74	$4,948.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Super Pets (Fri)	N	39	346	633	6,058	10.45%	$12.41	$7,856.21
		Y	74	569	840	11,506	7.30%	$9.38	$7,877.85
	Total		113	915	1,473	17,564	8.39%	$10.68	$15,734.06
T-1	Super Pets (Sat)	N	37	103	103	5,910	1.74%	$12.11	$1,247.21
		Y	74	405	405	11,506	3.52%	$9.14	$3,701.21
	Total		111	508	508	17,416	2.92%	$9.74	$4,948.42

 

Super Pets Fri T-0 comps

 - Minions - .163x (6.11m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.928x (7.61m)

 

Adjusted Fri comps

 - Minions - 7.61m

 - Paws of Fury - 5.61m

 

Final true Friday prediction: 7.5m

 

Quote

If Friday follows, we could see somewhere are +130% compared to Minions (+121%) and Paws (+182%).  That would put average Friday comps right at 6m.

Friday increase 164% - closer to Paws than Minions but not by much.  

 

Super Pets Sat T-1 comps

 - Minions - .18x (5.89m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.76x (8.32m)

 

We can do the same projection for final Friday sales - halfway between Minions (+125%) and Paws (+214%).  With a 175% increase we'd end up around 1400 with unadjusted Sat comps at 7.2m and 7.29m.  Adjusted Saturday would be around 7.9m

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Super Pets Harkins Final

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
125	31,269	3,514	11.24%	$34,637	$9.86

 

Comps

0.14x of Minions 2 Gross - $1.48M

3.29x of Paws of Fury Gross - $1.66M

 

Minions over-index in West, so that comp is lower than it should be. Normally around $1.7-1.8M seems like it. Best case may be around $1.9M. 

 

FRI sales suggesting somewhere around $5-5.5M. Will need walkups to hit $20M.

So $2.2M. Harkins underindexed being just 1.57%.

 

Knowing the ratio now, FRI possibly $6-6.5M.

[M37]

15 hours ago, M37 said:

Welp, final tracking numbers are in, and bit of uncertainty in where the final number lands, though the range looks small in raw dollars, and there doesn't seem to be a massive over or under-performance looming. However, I'm going to highlight one particular trend I've noticed in the comps:

 

Santikos:

Philly:

Jax/Phoenix/Raleigh:

 

Now these particular tracking samples tend to more volatile in terms of Thursday market share (National Preview $/Ticket sold), so the range adds in a layer of uncertainty.  However, I have a hunch Super Pets is similarly going to skew in similar demo directions as those particular films (though the DC brand may off-set it somewhat), and away from some of the others, meaning these higher end comp figures are not actually outliers

 

Preview Prediction: $2.5M (+/- $0.2)

 

Technically a miss, but directionally correct at least. Over/Under Bad Guys OW ($23.95M) could be a close race, see how Friday plays out

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1553031267372871682?s=20&t=cxP3qMi2HiKuhhB_P-dGcQhttps://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1553031267372871682?s=20&t=cxP3qMi2HiKuhhB_P-dGcQhttps://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1553031267372871682?s=20&t=cxP3qMi2HiKuhhB_P-dGcQ

 

[El Squibbonator]

Regarding League of Super-Pets, According to this article (and Variety is the gold-standard for box-office reporting), League of Super-Pets has already accumulated $2.2 million in Thursday previews. Unless our data is way off, it's actually tracking ahead of The Bad Guys. 

I think a good comparison for this movie might actually be Storks or Smallfoot, WB's two "original" animated movies. Both had budgets in the $80-90 million range, both were released in late summer, and both opened in the low $20 millions. Both of those movies managed to cross the $180 million mark, so if League of Super-Pets plays like them, it should be able to do the same, though probably not by much. If it has good legs, it might have a shot at $200 million worldwide.

Edited July 29, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[BruiseCruise]

I mean I would hope a DC branded movie with the Rock and Kevin Hart would open better than the Bad Guys 

[El Squibbonator]

We should be treating this as a Warner Animation Group movie first, a DC movie second-- and as such, subject to reduced expectations. With the exception of the first LEGO Movie, none of WAG's movies have truly over-performed, and the only reason they haven't had more flops is because their budgets also tend to be relatively low. 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

I feel we also have to take into consideration WAG might have a broken WoM to overcome. Their theatrical movies after Lego 2 have been truly abysmal. Scooby, Tom & Jerry and Space Jam 2 were all really, really bad. When Super Pets got those unfunny trailers I don't blame people to not rush in the first weekend.

Edited July 29, 2022 by ThatWaluigiDude

[Borf the Borf]

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252340830-Weekend-predictions-Super-Pets-set-for-weekend-win

So this is a box office authority?  Comparing 7pm Thue multipliers to a 2pm Thur.  Wow.   

Edited July 29, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[Sandro Mazzola]

30 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252340830-Weekend-predictions-Super-Pets-set-for-weekend-win

So this is a box office authority?  Comparing 7pm Thue multipliers to a 2pm Thur.  Wow.   

 

The guys at the-numbers are divorced from reality when it comes to their predictions unfortunately.... they have a model that they fully trust and do not deviate from, even when it makes no sense.

[Eduardo]

58 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

The guys at the-numbers are divorced from reality when it comes to their predictions unfortunately.... they have a model that they fully trust and do not deviate from, even when it makes no sense.

The BO experts here  just give a $1.7M yesterday for previews, and the numbers came $0.5M better. Lest wait for Friday numbers first.

[katnisscinnaplex]

I can't speak for everyone, but I am, by no means, an expert.  I merely open seating charts, count sold seats, and compare those numbers to other movies.  Sometimes it works

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I can't speak for everyone, but I am, by no means, an expert.  I merely open seating charts, count sold seats, and compare those numbers to other movies.  Sometimes it works