The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-36 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	235	4170	41714	10.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 244

 

Comp

0.312x of No Way Home's First Three Days of Sales (15.62M)

0.571x of Doctor Strange 2's First Three Days of Sales (20.56M)

4.371x of Jurassic World 3 T-36 (78.68M)

0.989x of Thor 4's First Three Days of Sales (28.67M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-35 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	235	4360	41714	10.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 190

 

Comp

4.377x of Jurassic World 3 T-35 (78.79M)

[Porthos]

On 10/6/2022 at 1:27 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-36 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	292	32534	36551	4017	10.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

294

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	118.43		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	34.17%		25.58m
MoM	51.36		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	19.02%		18.49m
L&T	79.39		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	23.68%		23.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wakanda Forever's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       157/5034  [3.12% sold]
Matinee:    172/4102  [4.19% | 4.28% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	294	32812	37022	4210	11.37%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	471
Total Seats Sold Today	193

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	119.67		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	35.81%		25.85m
MoM	51.93		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	19.94%		18.69m
L&T	79.57		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	24.82%		23.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wakanda Forever's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       168/5034  [3.34% sold]
Matinee:    174/4102  [4.24% | 4.13% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Shifting over to T-x as of tomorrow's track, and as a consequence all comps will disappear for a while (the only big movie I have for T-35 is JW:D which is currently comping at 60.58m, which... yeah, no).

 

As such, flying blind for a while.  Can't be helped, I'm afraid.

[Porthos]

On 10/6/2022 at 1:26 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	146	21214	22067	853	3.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

T-15 Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	269.09		12	317		0/81	13635/13952	2.27%		2352	36.27%		11.03m
SC	100.83		120	846		0/101	16156/17002	4.98%		5847	14.59%		8.87m
LTBC	107.57		59	793		0/153	25000/25793	3.07%		7712	11.06%		12.48m
ET	45.30		127	1883		0/96	13658/15541	12.12%		6409	13.31%		4.30m
Bats	21.74		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	7.26%		4.70m
Morb	155.94		62	547		0/127	18228/18775	2.91%		3477	24.53%		8.89m
JW	35.18		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		10966	7.78%		6.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       94/4106  [2.29% sold]
Matinee:    21/2196  [0.96% | 2.46% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	146	21155	22067	912	4.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	281.48		7	324		0/81	13628/13952	2.32%		2352	38.78%		11.54m
SC	94.31		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		5847	15.60%		8.30m
LTBC	103.87		85	878		0/153	24915/25793	3.40%		7712	11.83%		12.05m
ET	45.62		116	1999		0/96	13542/15541	12.86%		6409	14.23%		4.33m
Bats	22.31		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	7.76%		4.82m
Morb	145.22		81	628		0/127	18147/18775	3.34%		3477	26.23%		8.28m
JW3	35.14		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	8.32%		6.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       96/4106  [2.34% sold]
Matinee:    21/2196  [0.96% | 2.30% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 8, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	146	21155	22067	912	4.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-14 Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	281.48		7	324		0/81	13628/13952	2.32%		2352	38.78%		11.54m
SC	94.31		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		5847	15.60%		8.30m
LTBC	103.87		85	878		0/153	24915/25793	3.40%		7712	11.83%		12.05m
ET	45.62		116	1999		0/96	13542/15541	12.86%		6409	14.23%		4.33m
Bats	22.31		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	7.76%		4.82m
Morb	145.22		81	628		0/127	18147/18775	3.34%		3477	26.23%		8.28m
JW	35.14		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	8.32%		6.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       96/4106  [2.34% sold]
Matinee:    21/2196  [0.96% | 2.30% of all tickets sold]

Can you include F9 comp? 

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: One Piece Film Red - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[JustLurking]

I'll be impressed if it even hits the low range of that prediction, good for it if it does though.

[WrathOfHan]

40 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: One Piece Film Red - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

I saw the red carpet setup for One Piece at Lincoln Square last night when I went to see TÁR. Funimation even took IMAX away from Amsterdam previews  15-20M would not surprise me.

Edited October 7, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[Tinalera]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	294	32812	37022	4210	11.37%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	471
Total Seats Sold Today	193

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	119.67		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	35.81%		25.85m
MoM	51.93		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	19.94%		18.69m
L&T	79.57		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	24.82%		23.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wakanda Forever's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       168/5034  [3.34% sold]
Matinee:    174/4102  [4.24% | 4.13% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Shifting over to T-x as of tomorrow's track, and as a consequence all comps will disappear for a while (the only big movie I have for T-35 is JW which is currently comping at 60.58m, which... yeah, no).

 

As such, flying blind for a while.  Can't be helped, I'm afraid.

So here's just a general question I've been pondering: How much as the game changed in regards to Pre-Covid/Post Covid comps? I mean from what Ive been seeing in my tracking post covid, unless it's a MCU movie (and even then Ive seen consecutive lesser seats) or some other Tentpole like a Jurassic World, there just overall don't seem to be as many people going back to theatres. Are we at the stage where Comps are still comparable? Im certainly not suggesting Comps are worthless or anything like that, far from it, but how close are we to really focussing more now on comps from movies Post Covid and less on Pre Covid?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So here's just a general question I've been pondering: How much as the game changed in regards to Pre-Covid/Post Covid comps? I mean from what Ive been seeing in my tracking post covid, unless it's a MCU movie (and even then Ive seen consecutive lesser seats) or some other Tentpole like a Jurassic World, there just overall don't seem to be as many people going back to theatres. Are we at the stage where Comps are still comparable? Im certainly not suggesting Comps are worthless or anything like that, far from it, but how close are we to really focussing more now on comps from movies Post Covid and less on Pre Covid?

At this point, I would throw out any comps prior to June 2021 UNLESS it’s a direct sequel/franchise comp. Those can still have moderate use.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So here's just a general question I've been pondering: How much as the game changed in regards to Pre-Covid/Post Covid comps? I mean from what Ive been seeing in my tracking post covid, unless it's a MCU movie (and even then Ive seen consecutive lesser seats) or some other Tentpole like a Jurassic World, there just overall don't seem to be as many people going back to theatres. Are we at the stage where Comps are still comparable? Im certainly not suggesting Comps are worthless or anything like that, far from it, but how close are we to really focussing more now on comps from movies Post Covid and less on Pre Covid?

The pandemic pushed more people into utilizing online/pre-sales, overlapping with reserved seating expanding and becoming the standard, combined with (at least IMO) a smaller theatrical audience overall, plus more of an emphasis on PLF. The combined effect is a much larger share of sales being prepurchsed, fewer walk-ups, especially for the tentpoles

 

That makes before times comps sketchy at best. But all the trackers here use almost exclusively after times comps anyway, so it’s baked into the ratio. Though summer 2021 releases, when recovery had only just began, probably have more variability, and are less reliable 

[GOGODanca]

Hey guys when you do comps how do you adjust for the difference in amount of showtimes? Like I'm gonna try and use Black Adam when tracking BP2 as it gets closer to release but the amount of showtimes are so drastically different

[M37]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Hey guys when you do comps how do you adjust for the difference in amount of showtimes? Like I'm gonna try and use Black Adam when tracking BP2 as it gets closer to release but the amount of showtimes are so drastically different

You don’t. The number of shows is based on expected demand, so the volume of sales are all that really matter (unless a film is underestimated and shows start selling out all over the place, but that usually is corrected quickly, more shows added)

[GOGODanca]

https://twitter.com/Great_Katzby/status/1578376104997400578?s=20&t=8CwxwisNLulpP4wnxvLdXA

[Tinalera]

Black Panther (Thurs only)

Nov 10 

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	135	3311	29620	32931	0.1005

 

Im doing alot of running around today so I could only get Thurs sales up-and yes this is Thurs previews lol, they certainly selling like a friday.

[jedijake]

$130 million for BPWF? That would be beyond catastrophic level!

[Nikostar]

Lol at The Avatar and BPWK prediction. Add and 70 to 80 million to both.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Nikostar

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

$130 million for BPWF? That would be beyond catastrophic level!

The scariest part is that it's not even unrealistic. Sins of the Father has been a bitch of a syndrome in Hollywood as of late, and with the polarizing reception to both Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder even Marvel is susceptible to it. If it reviews anywhere near as well as the first film, then it can overcome it.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Halloween Ends T-8: 55.69% Awareness, 6.56 Interest

Call Jane T-22: 18.42%, 4.76

Prey for the Devil T-22: 25.12%, 5.3

Tar T-22: 10.21%, 4.11

The Menu T-43: 17.78%, 4.92

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish T-76: 49.09%, 5.59

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-134: 36.72%, 5.83

 

Amsterdam T-1: 32.14% Awareness, 5.62 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Last Duel w/ 28.89% Awareness & 5.09 Interest, Nightmare Alley w/ 33.92% & 5.41, The 355 w/ 27.69% & 5.26, Moonfall w/ 37.24% & 5.54, The Northman w/ 35.92% & 5.22

 

Final General Awareness: 27% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 88% chance of double-digits, 76% over 20M

Original - High Awareness: 62.5% chance of double-digit opening

Original - High Interest: 67% of double-digits and 20M

 

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile T-1: 41.62% Awareness, 5.1 Interest

Comps (All Final): Spirit Untamed w/ 38.66% Awareness & 5.2 Interest, Peter Rabbit 2 w/ 41.22% & 5.26, Ron's Gone Wrong w/ 26.4% & 5.05, Paws of Fury w/ 45.27% & 5.23

 

Final General Awareness: 94% chance of double-digit opening, 83% chance over 20M

General Interest: 68% chance of double-digit opening, 50% chance over 20M

Animation/Family Awareness: 87.5% chance of double-digit opening, 62.5% chance over 20M

Animation/Family Interest: 57% chance of double-digit opening, 29% chance over 20M

[keysersoze123]

Those projections are from the-numbers.com. They suck at weekend projections for existing movie after looking at weekday numbers. How on earth will they project OW for unreleased movies !!!! Earlier we used to get RS/MTC numbers but not anymore. There is BO.com number which should release shortly. But there is nothing we get from outside that is missing from our presales data. That to me is the best guide of where its going to end up. Let us wait another 2 weeks when we will have fine tuned comps with other recent MCU mega openers. I doubt we will be surprised by this movie's OW. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by keysersoze123

[GOGODanca]

T-13 Black Adam:

601 tickets sold across 64 showtimes at 10 local AMC's

 

  

Edited October 7, 2022 by GOGODanca