The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Verrows said:

You do realize your massive aspirations for this movie depend on those seats being filled up right? If they don't, it won't come close to the heights some of you are trotting out there.

Yes i'm aware. I wish they could all get to see it in Dolby 3D

 

[Verrows]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Yes i'm aware. I wish they could all get to see it in Dolby 3D

 

My hope is that as many see it as possible in whatever format, though yes, I would prefer to see it in premium. Most people would. I just hope that there is a decent amount of people who want to see it bad enough that they'll take a non premium showing if they have to. That's the kind of energy we need back at theatres! That NEED to see it whenever, however.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Yes i'm aware. I wish they could all get to see it in Dolby 3D

 

You know, and I really am gonna wait until the actual review bump to make a definitive statement on this, but *MAYBE* going "all in" on 3D as much as Disney has when it comes to PLF screens was a mistake in a 3D-skittish market like the US.

 

I'm not nearly as dogmatic about this as @Eric Dielman, but I do think he has a point when he says that when it comes down to it things like "biggest baddest screen" are complimentary aspects of the film and shouldn't be the main selling point.  If one has to see something in ULTRAMAX 3D or it isn't the same... Well, what message are you sending to folks who don't want to see it in that format or haven't been convinced it's worth it?  What message are you sending to people who just want to see something at a reasonable time, on a good screen, but in 2D?

 

"No thanks, we don't want your money"?  Is that the message you want to send to folks?

 

I likened this to "eat your vegetables; it's good for you" and while it isn't a perfect analogy, I do think this idea of "forcing" people to see something in a format that they'd rather not just because it might end up being a better experience is... I'm not going to say "oft putting" coz I don't want to get into other folk's heads, but I think it's clearly been a drag on tickets.  

 

Will attitude change when WOM really gets around?  I ain't betting against Cameron, that's for sure.  But right now I do think Disney is leaving a fair amount of money on the table with how they've handled the distribution of the film in regards to PLF and 2D.

[TwoMisfits]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You know, and I really am gonna wait until the actual review bump to make a definitive statement on this, but *MAYBE* going "all in" on 3D as much as Disney has when it comes to PLF screens was a mistake in a 3D-skittish market like the US.

 

I'm not nearly as dogmatic about this as @Eric Dielman, but I do think he has a point when he says that when it comes down to it things like "biggest baddest screen" are complimentary aspects of the film and shouldn't be the main selling point.  If one has to see something in ULTRAMAX 3D or it isn't the same... Well, what message are you sending to folks who don't want to see it in that format or haven't been convinced it's worth it?  What message are you sending to people who just want to see something at a reasonable time, on a good screen, but in 2D?

 

"No thanks, we don't want your money"?  Is that the message you want to send to folks?

 

I likened this to "eat your vegetables; it's good for you" and while it isn't a perfect analogy, I do think this idea of "forcing" people to see something in a format that they'd rather not just because it might end up being a better experience is... I'm not going to say "oft putting" coz I don't want to get into other folk's heads, but I think it's clearly been a drag on tickets.  

 

Will attitude change when WOM really gets around?  I ain't betting against Cameron, that's for sure.  But right now I do think Disney is leaving a fair amount of money on the table with how they've handled the distribution of the film in regards to PLF and 2D.

 

I agree - both my Cinemarks expanded from their initial set, but they are still overwhelmingly 3d loaded, even at the theater without PLF, so it's crappy 2d screen with 3d glasses which movie goers hate around here.

 

For the record, before their final set, here they are...they have increased from 5 to 11 overall 2d shows between the 2 theaters, which is still a very small number...

 

1st Cinemark - 7 screens - 22 shows (7 3d PLF, 10 crappy 3d, 5 2d)

2nd Cinemark - 6 screens - 19 shows (13 crappy 3d, 6 2d) 

 

Looking at presales, I think this is it...maybe an extra 2d show or two, but the way the crappy 3ds are selling, if they expand that, they want to lose ticket sales OW...

 

Edit to Add: And there's no rush for either theater to go early or late.  They start showing staggers at 10:15am and end by the 10:15pm (except the 1 extra PLF show at 11:15, to fit it in)...they don't expect anyone to ruin their schedules to watch this...(no 1am show or 8am show)...for now...

Edited December 12, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Verrows]

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You know, and I really am gonna wait until the actual review bump to make a definitive statement on this, but *MAYBE* going "all in" on 3D as much as Disney has when it comes to PLF screens was a mistake in a 3D-skittish market like the US.

 

I'm not nearly as dogmatic about this as @Eric Dielman, but I do think he has a point when he says that when it comes down to it things like "biggest baddest screen" are complimentary aspects of the film and shouldn't be the main selling point.  If one has to see something in ULTRAMAX 3D or it isn't the same... Well, what message are you sending to folks who don't want to see it in that format or haven't been convinced it's worth it?  What message are you sending to people who just want to see something at a reasonable time, on a good screen, but in 2D?

 

"No thanks, we don't want your money"?  Is that the message you want to send to folks?

 

I likened this to "eat your vegetables; it's good for you" and while it isn't a perfect analogy, I do think this idea of "forcing" people to see something in a format that they'd rather not just because it might end up being a better experience is... I'm not going to say "oft putting" coz I don't want to get into other folk's heads, but I think it's clearly been a drag on tickets.  

 

Will attitude change when WOM really gets around?  I ain't betting against Cameron, that's for sure.  But right now I do think Disney is leaving a fair amount of money on the table with how they've handled the distribution of the film in regards to PLF and 2D.

👏👏

 

Now I imagine IronJimbo meant well with his comment - he's super enthusiastic about this film and wants people to enjoy it in the best possible way - but yeah, for this film to be as big and impactful as many here want, it needs to be the kind that people will want to see anyway, anyhow.

[Derpity]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You know, and I really am gonna wait until the actual review bump to make a definitive statement on this, but *MAYBE* going "all in" on 3D as much as Disney has when it comes to PLF screens was a mistake in a 3D-skittish market like the US.

 

 

We definitely need to wait for January to know the answer, but I suspect this take will age like milk.

 

Its not some gimmick. It was designed, at a very large cost, to be viewed in 3D. We'll see if audiences respond or not.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Derpity said:

 

 

We definitely need to wait for January to know the answer, but I suspect this take will age like milk.

 

Its not some gimmick. It was designed, at a very large cost, to be viewed in 3D. We'll see if audiences respond or not.

 

You know I'm on record as saying this will do ≈ 750m DOM, right?

 

Anyway, I'm mostly talking about pre-sales, which is why I went out of my way to comment about not betting against James Cameron and WOM.

 

[Gkalaitza]

It definately could have had better format distribution in the states but maybe leaning on it being PLF 3d heavy also makes it more likely that the WoM for the experience in that format ,which would be the best WoM this movie will get, hits fast and hits big, guaranteening more PLF screens keep selling even better in the first weeks than they would without 3d.  Maybe it leads to more of the 2d walk ins or 3d sceptics of the first week doing repeat vieweings in plf 3d if their first vieweing experience is good enough (most likely yes). Maybe the 3d push gives better incentive to Avatar sceptics that watched people say "well the first movie was amazing in 3d you had to be there" for a bit to get their ass up and be there and flip their opinion . Or push people that vaugely remember the 3d theater experience of the OG fondly over the edge to come back to chase it.

 

Also the increased ticket price for PLF 3d showings will probably make up (to a degree) for the presumably reduced number of tickets the movie manages due to the PLF 3D push discussed here

Edited December 12, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Verrows]

2 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

It definately could have had better format distribution in the states but maybe leaning on it being PLF 3d heavy also makes it more likely that the WoM for the experience in that format ,which would be the best WoM this movie will get, hits fast and hits big, guaranteening more PLF screens keep selling well weeks in than they would without 3d.  Maybe it leads to more of the 2d walk ins or 3d sceptics of the first week doing repeat vieweings in plf 3d if their 2d experience is good enough (most likely yes). Maybe the 3d push gives better incentive to Avatar sceptics that watched watched people say "well the first movie was amazing in 3d you had to be there" to get their ass up and be there and flip their opinion . Or push people that vaugely remember the 3d theater experience of the OG fondly over the edge to come back to chase it.

 

Also the increased ticket price for PLF 3d showings will probably make up (to a degree) for the reduced number of tickets the movie manages 

Somewhat, but you really can't beat number of admissions. That is the true driving force behind the biggest movies of all time.

[Porthos]

You know, before we get too deep into the weeds on this, my comment wasn't just about 2D PLF, but I didn't want to take the time to scrap my post and start from scratch, but about the general initial push for 3D period.

 

When the initial slates came out, locally it was about 3:1 3D to 2D, with maybe one to one and a half screens for 2D.  That meant not just the PLF screen(s) being in 3D but the larger auditoriums/better showtimes as well. 

 

If I'm really going to quibble here, I'll go ahead and give Disney a pass on 3D PLF for buzz building purposes but still raise an eyebrow at putting so many standard 3D showings out there initially.

 

And I do mean "initially" as I am seeing more standard 2D show up now at some theaters.  

 

At the same time, some of my locals still only have one 2D screen up.  This is an extremely cherry picked example, but it still shows what I am talking about:

 

(the DBOX screenings are in the same auditorium as the 3D screenings at the same time, but Fandango splits them off for ticketing purposes)

 

What's the message being sent here?

 

Now judging by how other theaters are expanding locally, I expect a hell of a lot more 2D showings to be added between the timestamp of this post and Wed at this theater.  I've already seen a fairly hefty 2D expansion at a couple of other theaters, for instance.  But I also can only comment on RIGHT NOW.  And RIGHT NOW, when the most trafficked theater in the region has this available:

 

 

 

it sends a message.  IMO at least.

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

2 hours ago, datpepper said:

Man Called Otto tix should be on sale this Wed, Dec 14.

Am told it’s Thurs, Dec 15 now. Apologies.

[Gkalaitza]

I fully agree that normal 3d screens should be there in a significant capacity only in theaters/cities without PLF screens , or with only 1-2. Otherwise just enough for people that want to see 3d with a somewhat lower price or for the first 7-8 days when PLF 3d showings may be full or devoid of good seats in walk ins or late online bookings

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Derpity said:

 

 

We definitely need to wait for January to know the answer, but I suspect this take will age like milk.

 

Its not some gimmick. It was designed, at a very large cost, to be viewed in 3D. We'll see if audiences respond or not.

It’s not about being a gimmick, but upscaling a product that either prices people out or just comes off as elitist - for having to be consumed “a certain way” - and turns some off completely
 

Some people enjoy and are willing to pay for a premium steak, while others are perfectly happy with a cheeseburger. Doesn’t mean you can’t run a successful steakhouse, and maybe with rave reviews and not outrageous prices there’s still a 2-week wait list for reservations … but also gotta understand going in that business model is limiting the potential customer base far more than say an Applebees or McDonalds franchise

 

As much as TGM (or even Dune) were really solid bang-for-buck IMAX shows, there wasn’t any real supply-side attempt to funnel/force/shame people into choosing that option instead of standard theatrical viewing (or on HBO for Dune)

[Verrows]

45 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s not about being a gimmick, but upscaling a product that either prices people out or just comes off as elitist - for having to be consumed “a certain way” - and turns some off completely
 

Some people enjoy and are willing to pay for a premium steak, while others are perfectly happy with a cheeseburger. Doesn’t mean you can’t run a successful steakhouse, and maybe with rave reviews and not outrageous prices there’s still a 2-week wait list for reservations … but also gotta understand going in that business model is limiting the potential customer base far more than say an Applebees or McDonalds franchise

 

As much as TGM (or even Dune) were really solid bang-for-buck IMAX shows, there wasn’t any real supply-side attempt to funnel/force/shame people into choosing that option instead of standard theatrical viewing (or on HBO for Dune)

I was just going to use Top Gun: Maverick as a perfect example. That movie soared to huge heights precisely because, as ideal as it was for a special format like D-BOX, many people simply just wanted to see it, and they saw it on the most plain screen out there.

 

The biggest grosses are driven by big admissions, and big admissions are driven by a desire to see the movie, period, not just on the biggest, best screen.

 

I'm just imagining all the little hole in the wall theatres in small backwater towns filled with people for The Force Awakens. That's the best part of massive box office runs!

Edited December 12, 2022 by Verrows

[Verrows]

Anyway, I feel like I'm lecturing now when it was a fairly harmless comment by Jimbo so I'll drop it.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/9/2022 at 10:15 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Planning on doing an Avatar 2 showtime breakdown after running sales.  Busy day!

Finally had time to look at this.  Here are some numbers for Thursday showings.

 

I'm sure there is a better way to display the data, but this is my first pass.  Here are show counts for the formats I use in my showtimes reports.  

 

Format	3D	IMAX	IMAX 3D	Standard	Grand Total
D-Box	420			101	521
Dolby	237			211	448
RPX	211			8	219
Standard	10,164	5	834	10,818	21,821
XD	446			12	458
Grand Total	11,478	5	834	11,150	23,467

 

Here are the theater counts in the same table.  Total of 3,229 theaters polled so far.  2,434 of those theaters have 3D listings of some type.

 

Format	3D	IMAX	IMAX 3D	Standard	Grand Total
D-Box	57			26	59
Dolby	110			101	178
RPX	95			4	99
Standard	2,405	3	343	3,051	3,221
XD	150			6	153
Grand Total	2,413	3	343	3,079	3,229

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

The Whale T-11: 25.79% Awareness, 4.95 Interest

80 for Brady T-53: 15.53%, 4.7

Knock at the Cabin T-53: 18.8%, 5.52

Inside T-88: 11.3%, 5.23

Heart of a Lion T-109: 14.78%, 5.21

Barbie T-221: 32.72%, 4.61

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-340: 39.79%, 6.05

 

Avatar: The Way of Water T-4: 71.21% Awareness, 6.50 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

I Wanna Dance with Somebody T-11: 32.64% Awareness, 5.31 Interest

Final Awareness: 42% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 43% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 75% chance of 5M, 42% chance of 10M 

Original - Low Interest: 57% chance of 5M, 28% chance of 10M

[Deep Wang]

25 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I'm just imagining all the little hole in the wall theatres in small backwater towns filled with people for The Force Awakens. That's the best part of massive box office runs!

 

I remember the Alamo Drafthouse announcing Avatar was the highest grossing movie ever for that chain. 

 

Now, obviously, when a new movie breaks all the records, it's gonna break some records like that.  However while I'm sure some were 3D, they don't have any PLF and all the theaters are really quite small in terms of capacity, like 100 seats per screen or so.  That's really crazy!

[Krissykins]

For my local it’s:

 

14 showings in 3D

3 showings in IMAX3D

16 showings in 2D

 

So far, it’s not as busy as I’d expect, but it’s only Monday. 

[SnokesLegs]

41 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

For my local it’s:

 

14 showings in 3D

3 showings in IMAX3D

16 showings in 2D

 

So far, it’s not as busy as I’d expect, but it’s only Monday. 

Same near me in the UK, IMAX3D and 4DX are busy all weekend, but 2D and especially regular 3D are fairly quiet so far, infact regular 3D showings are practically empty. Definitely seems to be skewing heavily towards PLF’s.