The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThomasNicole]

Honestly 17M before ATP adjustment (so probably 18M-ish) previews and 8.5x would be a phenomenal performance after the last few days. 

 

I'm not greedy, i'll take it happily

 

[hw64]

44 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

We do not have much historical data to reference in that regard as we’ve gotten into some pretty in the weeds variables that don’t tend to get explicitly noted down anywhere. I can only tell you that based on expertise/experience, that relative fri/th edge will probably narrow to ~1.6x, whereas the sat and sun nums just aren’t that significant at this point with Thor’s sales being so low and the relative edge in actuals will probably tighten to about 1.2x and 1.1x respectively, for ~1+1.6*1.4(1+1.2*1.04(1+.77*1.1))=8.4x. If the Sat advantage remains very chonky you could hit 9-10x, but it’s a big ask.

 

With respect, that's not a particularly convincing argument to me — essentially boils down to just a "just trust me" in terms of what you're expecting the values to converge to.

 

Of course we have to account for the relative presales differences between the two films narrrowing, but what would be more convincing to me would, as Menor suggests, to actually look at the pace at which the presales difference between the two movies for each day has changed over the past few days, and how it's likely to behave up until T-0 for each day.

 

I prefer to look at each day relative to Thursday, so looking at the T-2 Thursday set of data vs. the T-1 Thursday data, we have:

 

Friday (T-3): Avatar 2's presales are 1.18/0.612 = 1.93x as strong as Thor 4 on Friday relative to Thursday

Friday (T-2): Avatar 2's presales are 1.10/0.595 = 1.85x (-0.08x) as strong as Thor 4 on Friday relative to Thursday

 

Saturday (T-4): Avatar 2's presales are 1.98/0.612 = 3.24x as strong as Thor 4 on Saturday relative to Thursday

Saturday (T-3): Avatar 2's presales are 1.86/0.595 = 3.13x (-0.11x) as strong as Thor 4 on Saturday relative to Thursday

 

Sunday (T-5): Avatar 2's presales are 2.95/0.612 = 4.82x as strong as Thor 4 on Sunday relative to Thursday

Sunday (T-4): Avatar 2's presales are 2.81/0.595 = 4.72x (-0.10x) as strong as Thor 4 on Sunday relative to Thursday

 

There's narrowing here, sure, and that needs to be taken into account, but I'm not necessarily in agreement with you about the extent that the figures will tighten. 1.6x Fri/Thu? Sure. But 1.2x Sat/Fri and 1.1x Sun/Sat? That's expecting the 3.13x above to narrow to 1.6 * 1.2 = 1.92x in 3 days, and the 4.72x above to narrow to 1.6 * 1.2 * 1.1 = 2.11x in 4 days. I'm not convinced at all about that given the paces shown above — I think they'll be significantly above what you're suggesting.

Edited December 15, 2022 by hw64

[TalismanRing]

Haven't been tracking consistently in ages but FWIW. 

 

NYC Local Regal - Only 10 screens (as opposed to the 15-20+ huge CBM) and 70% 3D ($25 tickets for non IMAX - nope)

 

Avatar 2: (12/14) 4pm Wed

 

(3D)(RPX)  152/640

(3D)           49/1303

(2D)           53/859

 

= 254/2802 = 9.06%

 

WED Comps:  Huge extremes between the very walk up heavy and very pre-sale heavy

 

JP3:  $27.87m

Venom 2: $15.84m

Dune:  $14.72m

SS2:  $13.5m

Bond: $11.35m

BW:    $10.28m

Joker: $6.23m

DS2:  $4.54m

SM3: $3.63m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[M37]

Last I checked, ThFSS ratios for Avatar in Drafthouse are (surprisingly) close to where Batman ended up (using true Thur only)    That was roughly an 8x from a ~$16M Thursday 
 

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by M37

[filmlover]

Don't think it was ever announced but it looks like Women Talking's new wide date is January 6.

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out! Thank you to @Korra Legion @Menor Reborn @M37 and @hw64 for the detailed analysis of the current data

 

FTR, if you had to put a hard number on the IM right now, where would you land?

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out! Thank you to @Korra Legion @Menor Reborn @M37 and @hw64 for the detailed analysis of the current data

 

FTR, if you had to put a hard number on the IM right now, where would you land?

 

As I said above I usually prefer to look at it day wise and then compute the IM from that. Unfortunately haven't had the time to do a detailed look but gut sense is Friday 2.4x previews, Saturday +20%ish, Sunday -20%ish. I guess that's around 8.5.

[Cooper Legion]

33 minutes ago, hw64 said:

With respect, that's not a particularly convincing argument to me — essentially boils down to just a "just trust me" in terms of what you're expecting the values to converge to.

Sure, that is what I’m saying, and that is what you should do  

 

33 minutes ago, hw64 said:

There's narrowing here, sure, and that needs to be taken into account, but I'm not necessarily in agreement with you about the extent that the figures will tighten. 1.6x Fri/Thu? Sure. But 1.2x Sat/Fri and 1.1x Sun/Sat? That's expecting the 3.13x above to narrow to 1.6 * 1.2 = 1.92x in 3 days, and the 4.72x above to narrow to 1.6 * 1.2 * 1.1 = 2.11x in 4 days. I'm not convinced at all about that given the paces shown above — I think they'll be significantly above what you're suggesting.

Let’s circle back to this in 5 days  

[DC Rich]

2 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

Damn, If only I'd have bought that $15/month gold account subscription to BOT, then my opinions would be so much more credible to the masses!

 

 

It's like a blue check on twitter. 🤔

[Verrows]

Right now I have the OW right around $150M. That's if the preview number stays around 17-18.

[Cap]

2 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

Damn, If only I'd have bought that $15/month gold account subscription to BOT, then my opinions would be so much more credible to the masses!

You Should! We are having a sale!!!

[Inceptionzq]

46 minutes ago, hw64 said:

That's expecting the 3.13x above to narrow to 1.6 * 1.2 = 1.92x in 3 days, and the 4.72x above to narrow to 1.6 * 1.2 * 1.1 = 2.11x in 4 days. I'm not convinced at all about that given the paces shown above — I think they'll be significantly above what you're suggesting.

This isn't nearly as crazy as you think. Let's say that the Thursday comp stays at about 0.60x Thor. For Saturday/Thurs Thor comp multipliers to be 1.92x, Avatar's final Saturday count would have to be 1.15x Thor's final Saturday count. That would be 11838 tickets sold which honestly might be higher than the final count will be.

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	783	508	7	46	17
Seats Added	88,682	62,015	1,025	5,853	2,343
Seats Sold	14,885	11,782	9,482	6,678	5,570
12/13/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	6,263	156,680	959,422	16.33%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	60	179	348
ATP
$18.13

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$14.2	$15.5	$14.0	$15.4	$20.8	$22.0	$13.6	$14.9	$19.1	$20.6
T-3	$14.0	$15.3	$13.8	$15.3	$21.5	$22.7	$13.8	$15.2	$19.6	$21.1
T-4	$13.6	$14.9	$13.7	$15.2	$22.0	$23.2	$14.1	$15.5	$20.2	$21.7
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	182	783	508	7	46
Seats Added	17,478	88,682	62,015	1,025	5,853
Seats Sold	20,751	14,885	11,782	9,482	6,678
12/14/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	6,445	177,431	976,900	18.16%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	12	74	206	411
ATP
$17.91

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$14.2	$15.6	$14.2	$15.7	$20.5	$21.6	$13.4	$14.7	$18.4	$19.9
T-2	$14.2	$15.5	$14.0	$15.4	$20.8	$22.0	$13.6	$14.9	$19.1	$20.6
T-3	$14.0	$15.3	$13.8	$15.3	$21.5	$22.7	$13.8	$15.2	$19.6	$21.1
T-4	$13.6	$14.9	$13.7	$15.2	$22.0	$23.2	$14.1	$15.5	$20.2	$21.7
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Is JWD going to come crashing down or will Thor/BPWF explode upwards? Feels like the convergence has to be right at $18M weighted.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Is JWD going to come crashing down or will Thor/BPWF explode upwards? Feels like the convergence has to be right at $18M weighted.

The weighted comps are headed for a little under 17 taken together based on past few days though there is always a chance to turn things around on t-0

[Derpity]

Pretty good day, looks like it stopped the bleeding and at least leaves open the possibility of a nice close

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	199	4079	33504	12.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 393

 

Comp

2.105x of F9 T-2 (14.94M)

1.886x of Venom 2 T-2 (21.87M)

2.182x of No Time to Die T-2 (13.75M)

2.687x of Dune T-2 (13.7M)

2.756x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-2 (16.54M)

1.133x of Top Gun 2 T-2 (21.83M)

1.165x of Jurassic World 3 T-2 (20.97M)

2.117x of Black Adam T-2 (16.09M)

 

I can tell this is going to be a looooooooooong weekend.

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	199	4550	33504	13.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 471

 

Comp

1.801x of F9 T-1 (12.79M)

1.527x of Venom 2 T-1 (17.72M)

1.974x of No Time to Die T-1 (12.44M)

2.585x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-1 (15.51M)

1.100x of Top Gun 2 T-1 (21.19M)

1.093x of Jurassic World 3 T-1 (19.67M)

1.965x of Black Adam T-1 (14.93M)

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	523	16775	3.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 56

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.277x of Sing 2 T-8 (2.7M)

0.720x of Sonic 2 T-8 (4.5M)

2.004x of Lightyear T-8 (10.42M)

2.067x of Minions 2 T-8 (22.22M)

9.685x of Super Pets T-8 (21.31M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.117x of Sing 2 T-8 (955K)

0.077x of Sonic 2 T-8 (482K)

0.215x of Lightyear T-8 (1.12M)

0.221x of Minions 2 T-8 (2.38M)

1.037x of Super Pets T-8 (2.28M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	534	16775	3.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp

0.267x of Sing 2 T-7 (2.6M)

0.666x of Sonic 2 T-7 (4.16M)

1.786x of Lightyear T-7 (9.29M)

1.690x of Minions 2 T-7 (18.17M)

8.613x of Super Pets T-7 (18.95M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	113	534	16775	3.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp

0.267x of Sing 2 T-7 (2.6M)

0.666x of Sonic 2 T-7 (4.16M)

1.786x of Lightyear T-7 (9.29M)

1.690x of Minions 2 T-7 (18.17M)

8.613x of Super Pets T-7 (18.95M)

Lmao at those comp changes. These lower PS movies are wild. 

[Eric Prime]

22 hours ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	21	5433	0.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.105x of Scream T-23 (367K)

0.096x of Nope T-23 (614K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	24	5433	0.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.112x of Scream T-22 (391K)

0.105x of Nope T-22 (674K)