The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tinalera]

Thor 4

 

 

        Thurs             Fri             T-

        9696            7401          3

%        .22            .1794   

 

         11074         8200           2

%      .2535          .1794

 

       12736         9710            1

%      .2892        .1494

 

 

Antman Quantum

 

Toronto (I believe final Toronto count was Tues)

Thurs            Fri    

2518           2248

.2485          .2357 

 

Canada Wide final count(taken yesterday)

Thurs         Fri

7490         6498

.1795        .1462

 

As for Comps its really a challenge because Im doing 1 region a day, so when I do Canada week it is an approximate. Also Toronto Numbers I was doing a LOT more theatres regionally (10) compared to Canada wide (4), so those numbers will be a bit higher for the Thor 4 than the Quantum numbers. 

 

I mean just going by the percentages and not trying to figure out the whole hypothetical amount made, you can see it's doing comparable to Thor 4. Id certainly be happy in future when I do my Canada weekly wrapups to show comparatively what Toronto was doing for other shows during that time if that would help at all.  And for future films I certainly don't have an issue of say I do a Vancouver count, doing a comparative percentage to what Vancouver did for Avatar/Antman Quantum ect at around same sales time. 

 

I am doing this as an organic type of idea, so im certainly open to ideas/ suggestions

 

 

 

[Tinalera]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

We are late enough in the presale run that even the Avatar comp would be informative. 

I just did Thor 4 but I can certainly do Avatar by comparison. Give me a couple of minutes I can hike up and compare the Avatar final week to Quantum

[GOGODanca]

Shazam 2 tickets on sale now

 

No 3d showings at my locations

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

Shazam 2 tickets on sale now

 

No 3d showings at my locations

 

Mine has XD, no 3d.

 

Now, you can tell DC does not have Marvel's pedigree AND it's a packed March.

 

Both my Cinemarks are only giving this 2 screens/8 showings for initial presales (1 has 1 XD, 1 reg and the other is both reg).  VERY SMALL for a supers set for Shazam 2.  We'll see if and when this changes...

Edited February 16, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

11 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Shazam 2 tickets on sale now

 

No 3d showings at my locations

What was the last DC or even WB film to release in 3D? I honestly can’t think of one 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Mine has XD, no 3d.

 

Now, you can tell DC does not have Marvel's predigree AND it's a packed March.

 

Both my Cinemarks are only giving this 2 screens/8 showings for initial presales (1 has 1 XD, 1 reg and the other is both reg).  VERY SMALL for a supers set for Shazam 2.  We'll see if and when this changes...

This movie is basically a writeoff, as it's now a Dark Phoenix-style lame duck. And Warner seems to be going all in on The Flash, which means downscaled releases for all the other Hamada leftovers. I could see them try with Aquaman 2 though since the first film made a billion.

[Tinalera]

 

		Avatar          # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent Toronto Thurs 10 96 2981 20337 23828 0.1251 Quebec Thurs 4 37 1350 7965 9315 0.1449 Nova Sc Thurs 5 31 762 5835 6597 0.1155 New B Thurs 4 27 254 4916 5170 0.0491 St Jon NF Thurs 1 12 210 2102 2312 0.0908 Calgary Thurs 8 61 1215 8801 10016 0.1213                 Total   32 264 6772 49956 57238 0.1183                 Toronto Fri 10 81 4003 16361 20362 0.1965 Quebec Fri 4 29 1860 5674 7534 0.2468 Nova Sc fri 5 15 794 2926 3720 0.2134 New B fri 4 12 408 2268 2676 0.1524 St Jon NF friday 1 6 47 183 230 0.2043 Calgary friday 8 44 1255 7484 8739 0.1436                 Total   32 187 8367 34896 43261 0.1934

Cobbled together final week (approx) of avatar for comparison (I hadn't started Vancouver yet. Toronto has a lot more as I was trying to do the "get as many as can" rather than focus on 4, but its percentage that counts lol

 

Final Canada wide Quantum 

 

Thurs

Total

24

176

7490

34629

41719

0.1795

 

Friday

Total

23

175

6498

37941

44439

0.1462

Edited February 16, 2023 by Tinalera
added info

[Tinalera]

Right...so which (regular Im looking at YOU Fast X) counts do I do. Decisions, decisions.

 

So I think Ill just keep doing what im doing, 1 region a day and maybe last week of counts add a comparo of previous final day/week of what the Canada counts were at that time. (IE Shazam Final Vancover add Quantum final  comparo Final Vancouver, Calgary ect and then final total count for week of Shazam vs Quantum). To save my sanity (already asking questions about itself lol) I will only do these comparos in final week. 

 

[keysersoze123]

45 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Thor 4

 

 

        Thurs             Fri             T-

        9696            7401          3

%        .22            .1794   

 

         11074         8200           2

%      .2535          .1794

 

       12736         9710            1

%      .2892        .1494

 

 

Antman Quantum

 

Toronto (I believe final Toronto count was Tues)

Thurs            Fri    

2518           2248

.2485          .2357 

 

Canada Wide final count(taken yesterday)

Thurs         Fri

7490         6498

.1795        .1462

 

As for Comps its really a challenge because Im doing 1 region a day, so when I do Canada week it is an approximate. Also Toronto Numbers I was doing a LOT more theatres regionally (10) compared to Canada wide (4), so those numbers will be a bit higher for the Thor 4 than the Quantum numbers. 

 

I mean just going by the percentages and not trying to figure out the whole hypothetical amount made, you can see it's doing comparable to Thor 4. Id certainly be happy in future when I do my Canada weekly wrapups to show comparatively what Toronto was doing for other shows during that time if that would help at all.  And for future films I certainly don't have an issue of say I do a Vancouver count, doing a comparative percentage to what Vancouver did for Avatar/Antman Quantum ect at around same sales time. 

 

I am doing this as an organic type of idea, so im certainly open to ideas/ suggestions

 

 

 

Cant you do apples for apples and compare data only for theaters tracked for both the movies. Otherwise just keep building up data and use it for Guardians 3 which would be coming up in couple of months. Tracking is about coming up with a formula. Ultimately you will need to map it to actual Canadian BO(if you can get it :-)). 

[keysersoze123]

FYI 241117 this morning. Need to get to 280K by the time shows start but that looks tough to me. 

[Paul Verhoeven]

4 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-0	Jax	6	116	396	2,640	18,004	14.66%
		Phx	7	114	461	2,841	17,045	16.67%
		Ral	8	125	331	2,666	15,685	17.00%
	Total		21	355	1,188	8,147	50,734	16.06%
Cocaine Bear	T-7	Jax	6	19	2	38	2,164	1.76%
		Phx	6	15	5	66	1,980	3.33%
		Ral	8	20	8	61	1,569	3.89%
	Total		20	54	15	165	5,713	2.89%
Jesus Revolution	T-7	Jax	5	9	6	35	1,021	3.43%
		Phx	4	5	0	25	622	4.02%
		Ral	7	12	9	99	1,168	8.48%
	Total		16	26	15	159	2,811	5.66%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	11	9	262	1,021	25.66%
		Phx	5	8	0	162	850	19.06%
		Ral	8	13	17	694	1,506	46.08%
	Total		18	32	26	1,118	3,377	33.11%
Scream VI	T-21	Jax	5	23	7	103	3,350	3.07%
		Phx	5	15	12	196	2,792	7.02%
		Ral	8	33	7	139	4,211	3.30%
	Total		18	71	26	438	10,353	4.23%

 

Ant-Man 3 T-0 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.407x (18.57m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .393x (14.147m)

 - Thor 4 - .612x (17.74m)

 - Eternals - 1.965x (18.667m)

 - BP2 - .576x (16.13m)

 

I was hoping for a much better day, but it looks like the reviews are gonna hold it back.  Should be under 19m preview; I'll go with 18.5m with one update to go. 

 

Jesus Revolution T-7 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .941x (574k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.136x (829k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 2.36x (4.25m)

 - Left Behind - 7.56x (4.61m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 9.12x (6.66m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-7 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.542x (2.235m)

 - Nope - .314x (2.01m)

 - Bullet Train - .609x (2.04m)

 - Violent Night - missed

 

Looking like 2m previews at this point.

 

Scream VI T-21 comps

 - Nope - 1.848x (11.83m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.76x (12.7m)

 

Is this good for Cocaine Bear? 2m of previews is how much opening?

[keysersoze123]

Ant-man has 2 open weeks. 

 

Then we have Creed 3/Scream 4/Shazam/John Wick 4(easily the 2nd biggest movie 1st quarter)/Dungeons and Dragons/Mario from Feb end to Early April.

 

Mario has an open runway till Guardians. Then 2 weeks later we have a crazy schedule all the way till August from Fast X to Blue Beetle. Sept/October look weak to me and so Dune has a chance with Weak slate. Then we have Wonka and Aqua Bro 2 end of the year. I feel movies like Mario, Dune and Wonka could benefit if BO is dead around or after their release. 

 

I wish studios spaced big movies instead of having these clusters of big openers. We have had breakouts almost every month of the year. 

[Tinalera]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cant you do apples for apples and compare data only for theaters tracked for both the movies. Otherwise just keep building up data and use it for Guardians 3 which would be coming up in couple of months. Tracking is about coming up with a formula. Ultimately you will need to map it to actual Canadian BO(if you can get it 🙂). 

Yea, like i had a whole bunch of data when I was doing Toronto only and it was great, then I decided to do Canada wide stuff get a bigger picture. For me its more about getting the data out for everyone to take a glance to see how Canada is doing compared to US, even if it is just percentages. 

 

Im able from time to time get Canada BO numbers when it gets posted in the Canada thread-but in meantime I just post the data I have to contribute and even if people get an eyeball of data for their own comparisons, Im happy to provide that

[Tinalera]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man has 2 open weeks. 

 

Then we have Creed 3/Scream 4/Shazam/John Wick 4(easily the 2nd biggest movie 1st quarter)/Dungeons and Dragons/Mario from Feb end to Early April.

 

Mario has an open runway till Guardians. Then 2 weeks later we have a crazy schedule all the way till August from Fast X to Blue Beetle. Sept/October look weak to me and so Dune has a chance with Weak slate. Then we have Wonka and Aqua Bro 2 end of the year. I feel movies like Mario, Dune and Wonka could benefit if BO is dead around or after their release. 

 

I wish studios spaced big movies instead of having these clusters of big openers. We have had breakouts almost every month of the year. 

Im going to have to just stick with a couple of those-maybe Wick and Shazam. I do have time to do counts but trying to manage 4 counts at the same time might be a bit much for my little brain lol. Going to focus more on Fast X mainly when its just a TAD closer to opening....like I dunno, maybe the same MONTH? 

[keysersoze123]

Ant-man MTC2 previews - 162147/794420 2297441.32 5680 shows

 

Overnight run that just wrapped up. its about 70% of Wakanda. So about 18.6m. 

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man has 2 open weeks. 

 

Then we have Creed 3/Scream 4/Shazam/John Wick 4(easily the 2nd biggest movie 1st quarter)/Dungeons and Dragons/Mario from Feb end to Early April.

 

Mario has an open runway till Guardians. Then 2 weeks later we have a crazy schedule all the way till August from Fast X to Blue Beetle. Sept/October look weak to me and so Dune has a chance with Weak slate. Then we have Wonka and Aqua Bro 2 end of the year. I feel movies like Mario, Dune and Wonka could benefit if BO is dead around or after their release. 

 

I wish studios spaced big movies instead of having these clusters of big openers. We have had breakouts almost every month of the year. 

I feel like Transformers could've been a hit in September but I'm pretty sure everything set for June is staying there at this point.

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

What was the last DC or even WB film to release in 3D? I honestly can’t think of one 

The first Shazam was in 3D. I think Godzilla KotM was the last WB to be released in said format

[filmlover]

 

[Ronin46]

DL: Scream tracking at 37M

 

https://deadline.com/2023/02/box-office-scream-vi-jenna-ortega-1235262101/

 

 

[keysersoze123]

That makes better sense. I am not sure why Boxoffice.com has such low numbers. Early presales are looking quite good for it to open that low.