The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Breakout for Fast X, CONFIRMED.

DC isn’t part of the family apparently

[misterpepp]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI Fast X is having advanced fan screenings like Guardians. 

 

http://www.mindonmovies.com/2023/04/fast-x-screening.html

 

Grab the free passes and hopefully this means its not terrible. 

 

There are more that are even earlier on May 12:

 

uni.pictures/FastXFansFirst

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/7/2023 at 3:20 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1491	28556	5.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.60
 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.265x) ~$4.6M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1566	28556	5.5%

*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

75

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.62
 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.257x) ~$4.5M THUR

Edited May 8, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[thajdikt]

Excellent start for Spidey. This will be huge. Curious to see how Transformers pre-sales will go.

[Nate]

Not to temper things, because there’s obviously a huge group of people very excited for this film, and it feels almost guaranteed to improve on the 190m of the first film, but the conversation around this film is feeling extremely MCU/fan-driven right now, and these very strong initial presales feel like they’re speaking for that audience.

 

It still feels inherently more niche because of the style, potentially limiting how much bigger it can go, especially in a crowded month. Can’t quite put a number to the final number yet, but feels like it starts with a 2

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 ITSV is regarded as one of the best movies ever made) 

 

did I miss something?

[filmlover]

Assuming nothing else from June moves away for the same reason Strays is giving (lack of a promo tour due to the strike...most of that month's movies - and July's, for that matter - already have a built-in audience and don't need to worry about generating awareness), this is what that entire month looks like now:

 

6/2: Spider-Man, The Boogeyman

6/9: Transformers

6/16: The Flash, Elemental, The Blackening

6/23: No Hard Feelings, Asteroid City

6/30: Indiana Jones, Ruby Gillman

 

Honestly, this seems perfectly manageable. 

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Assuming nothing else from June moves away for the same reason Strays is giving (lack of a promo tour due to the strike...most of that month's movies - and July's, for that matter - already have a built-in audience and don't need to worry about generating awareness), this is what that entire month looks like now:

 

6/2: Spider-Man, The Boogeyman

6/9: Transformers

6/16: The Flash, Elemental, The Blackening

6/23: No Hard Feelings, Asteroid City

6/30: Indiana Jones, Ruby Gillman

 

Honestly, this seems perfectly manageable. 

Feel like Transformers and Elemental have the biggest uphill battle. ATSV and Indy feel like the most 'sure' bets in that whatever they're going to do, they'll do while Flash feels a bit more of a reviews-based wildcard.

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Feel like Transformers and Elemental have the biggest uphill battle. ATSV and Indy feel like the most 'sure' bets in that whatever they're going to do, they'll do while Flash feels a bit more of a reviews-based wildcard.

Transformers has been giving me Terminator Genisys/Dark Fate vibes for a while but who knows, maybe it won't be total doom and gloom if the stars align for it.

[PrinceRico]

40 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

did I miss something?

You must have because it is by critics and audience. 

[vafrow]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Assuming nothing else from June moves away for the same reason Strays is giving (lack of a promo tour due to the strike...most of that month's movies - and July's, for that matter - already have a built-in audience and don't need to worry about generating awareness), this is what that entire month looks like now:

 

6/2: Spider-Man, The Boogeyman

6/9: Transformers

6/16: The Flash, Elemental, The Blackening

6/23: No Hard Feelings, Asteroid City

6/30: Indiana Jones, Ruby Gillman

 

Honestly, this seems perfectly manageable. 

 

I feel The Blackening could move up a week. Being the third new release behind Flash and Elemental seems like a bad bet. Moving just a week ahead isn't great, but it might be able to make some noise against Rise of the Beasts, better than those others. But, it may be too late to pull that switch, especially without the talk show circuit.

[Gavin Feng]

Is it possible that The Little Mermaid will do 2× Fast X in domestic?

[DAJK]

33 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Is it possible that The Little Mermaid will do 2× Fast X in domestic?

Yep

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

did I miss something?

It’s top 16 on letterboxd and it ranks 66th best film by IMDb users 

[AJG]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

did I miss something?

The audience consisting of people that have only ever seen 33 movies consider Spider-Man to be one of the greatest ever made.

 

I thought this was common knowledge…

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

did I miss something?

Seems like

[WorkingonaName]

Letterboxd top 250 is truly dreadful. 

[AJG]

32 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Letterboxd top 250 is truly dreadful. 

Letterboxd reinforces my belief that being a ‘movie buff’ is the easiest most low-effort thing morons do to try and disguise their stupidity.
A bunch of lemmings parroting praise for the hot new technical aspect of filmmaking they just learned about last week. I’ve never seen so many people gather to share the exact same opinion on the same exact subject.

Edited May 9, 2023 by AJG

[M37]

2 hours ago, Nate said:

Not to temper things, because there’s obviously a huge group of people very excited for this film, and it feels almost guaranteed to improve on the 190m of the first film, but the conversation around this film is feeling extremely MCU/fan-driven right now, and these very strong initial presales feel like they’re speaking for that audience.

 

It still feels inherently more niche because of the style, potentially limiting how much bigger it can go, especially in a crowded month. Can’t quite put a number to the final number yet, but feels like it starts with a 2

So you’re making the case for a big early sales from a fan rush, but then tails off after as the GA appeal is just much softer? Basically another AMWQ scenario?
 

Certainly plausible, but even if it starts at like ~65% of that level but doesn’t stagnate from terrible reviews and rises to ~85%, still looking at a ~$15M Thursday and 6x = $90M+ OW, with 2 weeks before Flash and 4 before Indy (I’m not even counting Transformers). That’s kinda close to the floor outcome we’re already looking at after one day 

 

Anyway, I just did a quick count of the Tampa/St Pete market and AtSV is over 1,000 sold for first day, on pace to come close to if not exceed Avatar 2’s OD of sales there

[keysersoze123]

Quick Update

 

Fast X MTC1 Previews(T-10) - 34950/471728 636310.08 2287 shows

 

Its just plodding along for now. I dont see it accelerating until later this week and hopefully the early fan shows puts this motor in high gear. I am probably thinking 7.5-8m previews for now and 60m OW. Hopefully my expectations go up next week. 

 

Spider-man across the spiderverse - 48605/731467 893033.17 3886 shows

 

Solid 1st day and I hope it continues to do well. Its amazing after under a day of presales its already ahead of Fast X which has been selling since Jurassic period and Mermaid which is in its 2nd week and slightly below Fast X at this point.