The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Fast X MTC2 previews(T-3) - 42174/621403 634544.95 4174 shows +6262

 

Good boost at both MTC. Let us hop it sustains. 

[Eric Prime]

20 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1713	28586	5.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp - T-11

2.799x of Sonic 2 (17.49M)

0.924x of Jurassic World 3 (16.63M)

2.245x of Black Adam (17.06M)

0.810x of Avatar 2 (13.77M)

0.884x of Mario (28.02M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1878	28586	6.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 165

 

Comp - T-10

2.957x of Sonic 2 (18.48M)

0.965x of Jurassic World 3 (17.38M)

2.321x of Black Adam (17.64M)

0.857x of Avatar 2 (14.56M)

0.904x of Mario (28.66M)

[SpiderByte]

It is a bit out but...at the big AMC in Boston there are several, several Transformers showings with zero seats sold. The highest I saw was one with 8

[stripe]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC2 previews(T-3) - 42174/621403 634544.95 4174 shows +6262

 

Good boost at both MTC. Let us hop it sustains. 

 

Are you more confident about it outgrossing Fast9 previews?

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Are you more confident about it outgrossing Fast9 previews?

I think so. Its going to be more MTC1 heavy than last one. There I am expecting it to beat F9 by 15% and that is the biggest kahuna. I dont want to predict a final number based on 1 day. But if today it ramps up like what I expect(another 40-50% bump), its going for 8m previews. 

[Eric Prime]

19 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1458	23838	6.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp - T-18

3.582x of Sonic 2 (22.39M)

0.163x of Doctor Strange 2 (5.87M)

0.986x of Jurassic World 3 (17.76M)

0.304x of Thor 4 (8.81M)

0.233x of Black Panther 2 (6.52M)

0.944x of Avatar 2 (16.04M)

0.380x of Ant-Man 3 (6.64M)

1.074x of Mario (34.04M)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1524	23838	6.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

Comp - T-17

3.425x of Sonic 2 (21.4M)

0.166x of Doctor Strange 2 (5.97M)

1.004x of Jurassic World 3 (18.07M)

0.311x of Thor 4 (9.02M)

0.239x of Black Panther 2 (6.68M)

0.945x of Avatar 2 (16.07M)

0.388x of Ant-Man 3 (6.8M)

1.049x of Mario (33.25M)

0.499x of Guardians 3 (8.73M)

[grim22]

15 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Are you more confident about it outgrossing Fast9 previews?

With 5 extra hours, it will be really concerning if Fast X doesn't do more than F9 previews. 

[GOGODanca]

What kind of IM do you think Spider-verse will pull? From what i remember the first movie played more like a superhero movie in terms of demo than a kids movie so you'd expect it to be closer to say 5 or 6x thursday than say 10-11 like Minions but what do presales say?

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

With 5 extra hours, it will be really concerning if Fast X doesn't do more than F9 previews. 

Not 5 hours. I see 7PM start mostly but some places I could even see 630PM shows. This will definitely have lower multi. 

[filmlover]

Elemental is getting PLFs in the afternoon for the weekend it comes out from what I'm seeing, The Flash will obviously take over those screens for the rest of the day (the latter almost certainly has IMAX screens all day for that weekend). Imagine a similar split is destined to occur the weekend Barbie and Oppenheimer come out (former during the day, the latter at night + having IMAX screens all day).

[grim22]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not 5 hours. I see 7PM start mostly but some places I could even see 630PM shows. This will definitely have lower multi. 

It's 2pm everywhere near me in the AMCs and Regals 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Boogeyman T-18: 37.54% Awareness

Asteroid City T-39: 17.25%

The Meg 2: The Trench T-81: 30.85%

Dune: Part Two T-172: 31.38%

Napoleon T-191: 17.83%

 

Fast X T-4: 58.33% Awareness

Final Awareness: 53% chance of 40M, 40% chance of 50M, 27% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M, 13% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

The Little Mermaid T-11: 59.87% Awareness

Final Awareness: 53% chance of 40M, 40% chance of 50M, 27% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M, 13% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

No Hard Feelings T-39: 19.97% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

 

Joy Ride T-53: 20.87% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 56% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

 

Oppenheimer T-67: 20.22% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Original - High Awareness: 71% chance of 10M, 29% chance of 30M

 

So to clarify some stuff, if you're wondering why Interest isn't here, yesterday Quorum updated their website and their metrics. More specifically, instead of the 0-10 point scale for Interest, it's now a percentage like everything else. So that means all the comps I've done are now null and void and I will have to start that area all over again. Which yes, is very frustrating and annoying. So while I will try to look over and update the Interest metrics accordingly in the future, since a lot of older movies have been updated, we can only do Awareness for the time being. It is what it is, but I think I can manage it.

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think so. Its going to be more MTC1 heavy than last one. There I am expecting it to beat F9 by 15% and that is the biggest kahuna. I dont want to predict a final number based on 1 day. But if today it ramps up like what I expect(another 40-50% bump), its going for 8m previews. 

If you presume Monday was a bit of a catch-up day from a Mother's Day deflation over the weekend, then longer term Fast X is roughly on the JWD track, and would be expected to finish at 125K-130K for MTC1 (+8k/+10k/+50k+).

 

But I'm not sure what PSM to use to project a $ value from there, and the individual markets point lower.  In that last round of updates, only the Philly/JWD comp is over $7.8M, with that and Sacto/F9 (adj) the only ones topping even $7.2M. Smells to me like MTC1 is going to run a bit hot with the PLF draw, while the standard/casual audience is softer, and all together its heading towards a preview number closer to $7M (if not below). Which would be an MCU-ish ~$56K PSM if all of this were to verify

 

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

If you presume Monday was a bit of a catch-up day from a Mother's Day deflation over the weekend, then longer term Fast X is roughly on the JWD track, and would be expected to finish at 125K-130K for MTC1 (+8k/+10k/+50k+).

 

But I'm not sure what PSM to use to project a $ value from there, and the individual markets point lower.  In that last round of updates, only the Philly/JWD comp is over $7.8M, with that and Sacto/F9 (adj) the only ones topping even $7.2M. Smells to me like MTC1 is going to run a bit hot with the PLF draw, while the standard/casual audience is softer, and all together its heading towards a preview number closer to $7M (if not below). Which would be an MCU-ish ~$56K PSM if all of this were to verify

 

 

You could be right. But I am seeing it finish higher. Let us wait and see, Today it needs another 40% boost at minimum. 

 

Anyway just looked at showcount for Elemental and it looks terrible. Its going to be the worst wide opener for a Pixar. Terrible decision on Disney part to release it in June. 

[JWR]

It's only been a few hours.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, JWR said:

It's only been a few hours.

I am not talking about ticket sales. I am talking about show allocation. Its just terrible and that shows plexes have little confidence and will allocate most of the big screens/PLFs to Flash. Big L for Disney/Pixar. 

[Cooper Legion]

I definitely agree TLM will open in the 72-179 range 😤  

 

Spoiler

More seriously the 107-134 hitbox looks reasonable

 

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not talking about ticket sales. I am talking about show allocation. Its just terrible and that shows plexes have little confidence and will allocate most of the big screens/PLFs to Flash. Big L for Disney/Pixar. 

It’s still pretty early. From what I’m seeing in theaters near me, it’s getting two screens and ten showings for the day. Also it’s an all original family film, of course the showtimes aren’t going to be as numerous as say Mario, TLM or Across, they’ll likely build up as weeks go by.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

It’s still pretty early. From what I’m seeing in theaters near me, it’s getting two screens and ten showings for the day. Also it’s an all original family film, of course the showtimes aren’t going to be as numerous as say Mario, TLM or Across, they’ll likely build up as weeks go by.

I looked at a whole chain. Its not getting Imax at all only getting one show of 3/4PM Dolby show. Otherwise its just digital shows for the movie. So it will have way lower ATP and its going to lag Flash big time in screen counts as well. Limited potential for sure. 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I looked at a whole chain. Its not getting Imax at all only getting one show of 3/4PM Dolby show. Otherwise its just digital shows for the movie. So it will have way lower ATP and its going to lag Flash big time in screen counts as well. Limited potential for sure. 

I mean was Elemental ever going to thrive in PLFs. Original animation doesn’t really need PLFs, Sing 2 (though a sequel probably skews as young with a similar ATP) did fine without them. It’s not an animated sequel, what matters most is the amount of screens it gets. With Transformers destined to die and some of the May holdovers being gone (like I don’t expect Fast X or Book Club 2 to stay long in theaters), it’s plausible Elemental can get some of its showings if marketing racks up.

 

Thinking 25-45m seems like the OW range and will need to rely on legs to survive.

Edited May 16, 2023 by YM!