The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

11 hours ago, ZackM said:

What are we using for The Flash comps?

Black Adam is probably the best option, but among the Alpha data set, would recommend:

 

1) Spider-Verse - probably the cleanest comp (once we have an actual)

2) JWD - The expected pace is in the right range, but as Charlie said, PSM is too high, will have to adjust down 15-20% from direct comp value

3) TGM (Thur Only) - the only other title in a similar range of growth overall, though took a different path to get there

 

Batman's pace is too low, so not usable at present, but probably worth adding closer to the finish, as the market spread will likely be very similar

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Adjusted as in over I2's preview even with inflation? Didn't I2 do 18M+ in previews 5 years ago? 

Yeah I think it’ll work out to ~23-23.5

[rehpyc]

Deadline definitely has to be off, based on MTC overall numbers, unless typical market share is pretty skewed from the norm - 17.5M at minimum.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Deadline definitely has to be off, based on MTC overall numbers, unless typical market share is pretty skewed from the norm - 17.5M at minimum.

I suspect they took the numbers at whatever time, applied the usual MCU ratio/finishing pace to come to that $16M figure (or even straight used GOTG3 to project). But SV is more walk-up friendly than a normal MCU film, so it should come out ahead of that estimate, just not sure by how much

[Starphanluke]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-7]

1259/19437 [6.48% sold] [+124 tickets]

0.21185x the sales of TGM at T-7                 [4.08m]

0.32407x the sales of JWD at T-7                 [5.83m]

0.90122x the sales of Black Adam at T-7     [6.85m]

2.51800x the sales of Shazam 2 at T-7         [8.56m]

0.72190x the sales of Wick 4 at T-7             [6.42m]

0.85068x the sales of Fast X at T-7             [6.38m]

 

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Transformers 6	T-6	Jax	5	55	6	242	9,013	2.69%
		Phx	6	56	29	275	10,104	2.72%
		Ral	8	52	22	232	6,776	3.42%
	Total		19	163	57	749	25,893	2.89%
Transformers EA	T-5	Jax	5	7	31	276	1,216	22.70%
		Phx	1	1	6	142	208	68.27%
		Ral	1	1	1	60	101	59.41%
	Total		7	9	38	478	1,525	31.34%

 

Transformers + EA T-7 comps

 - NTTD Total - missed

 - Ghostbusters Total - missed

 - F9 - 1.178x (8.36m)

 - Dune - 1.377x (7.02m)

 - Black Adam - 1.024x (7.78m)

 - Shang-Chi - .945x (8.31m)

 

Here are some T-5 EA comps for fun

 - NTTD - 2.256x (2.48m)

 - Creed III - 3.438x (3.44m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .367x (1.688m)

 - Black Phone - 7.586x (3.03m)

 

Everything I have is either much higher or much lower in sales, but could easily see EA being 2m+

Legit cannot get a read if this movie is gonna have $7m previews or $3m previous. It feels so all over the place. And then no clue what the IM looks like from there. What a weird one to track. 

[ZackM]

Alpha finals for Across the Spider-Verse:

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0
6/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,919	328,182	848,127	38.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	35	247	722	1,433
ATP
$16.31

 

 

2pm start time makes these time zone breakdowns a little weird, but I think it still tells the story.

 

 

Across the Spider-Verse - Eastern Time Zone					Across the Spider-Verse - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3
2:00-3:59	30,434	17,552	16,629		2:00-3:59	21,072	9,632	8,345
4:00-4:59	7,404	9,267	11,784		4:00-4:59	3,889	3,726	6,039
5:00-5:59	14,409	7,285	7,290		5:00-5:59	8,153	3,982	3,221
6:00-6:59	19,395	24,751	28,374		6:00-6:59	10,767	14,667	15,595
7:00-7:59	20,632	29,545	27,500		7:00-7:59	13,990	15,450	14,302
8:00-8:59	16,790	14,065	15,413		8:00-8:59	10,240	7,717	7,331
9:00-9:59	15,257	9,767	22,546		9:00-9:59	8,639	4,328	10,306
10:00-10:59	12,791	15,141	13,713		10:00-10:59	6,867	7,615	5,980
11:00-11:59	2,555	4,931	1,893		11:00-11:59	1,095	1,443	486
12:00+	359	447	1,113		12:00+	135	234	302
Across the Spider-Verse - Mountain Time Zone					Across the Spider-Verse - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3
2:00-3:59	5,661	2,968	2,479		2:00-3:59	17,431	11,252	8,903
4:00-4:59	1,450	1,542	1,442		4:00-4:59	3,879	5,603	7,425
5:00-5:59	2,342	1,391	1,041		5:00-5:59	6,786	4,511	3,527
6:00-6:59	2,353	3,943	4,176		6:00-6:59	10,053	12,199	13,551
7:00-7:59	3,503	4,506	3,888		7:00-7:59	12,231	15,029	14,392
8:00-8:59	2,787	2,412	1,864		8:00-8:59	8,374	9,263	7,887
9:00-9:59	2,297	1,118	2,736		9:00-9:59	9,615	6,256	11,946
10:00-10:59	1,667	1,973	1,250		10:00-10:59	8,247	11,189	8,550
11:00-11:59	189	419	177		11:00-11:59	3,547	3,525	2,125
12:00+	76	41	62		12:00+	821	859	1,302

 

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

 

Legit cannot get a read if this movie is gonna have $7m previews or $3m previous. It feels so all over the place. And then no clue what the IM looks like from there. What a weird one to track. 

I think the issue is that the sales to this point are so EA heavy that comp values are going to depend very much on how many EA shows a sample has

 

I'm thinking ~$5M for Thursday plus whatever EA brings in, but that kind of ratio doesn't - at least to me - suggest a strong IM. Basically similar preview and OW total as Nope ($6.4/$44M)

[el sid]

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny had yesterday 957 sold tickets for Thursday, June 29. 28 days to go.
Comps: Uncharted (3.7M from previews) had with 15 days left 454 sold tickets.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.5M) had on Monday of the release week 936 sold tickets,
TLC (2.5M) on the same day 306
and Death on the Nile (?) had also on Monday of the release week 212 sold tickets.

And for Friday, July 1, Indy 5 had yesterday 447 sold tickets. 29 days to go.
Comps: Uncharted (44M OW) had with 16 days left 276 sold tickets.
JW: D (145.1M) had with 16 days left 1.839 sold tickets.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M) had on Monday of the release week 514 sold tickets,
TLC (30.5M) on the same day 196
and Death on the Nile (12.9M) had also on Monday of the release week 198 sold tickets.
 

So it has at the moment ca. 2x the sales of Uncharted with way more days left, that seems pretty decent to me.
It happened several times now that presales for certain films looked better in my theaters than in other reports and then in their last week these films had only modest jumps and overall the numbers did assimilate. But of course that doesn't mean that this will happen with Indy 5 too. At the moment I'm satisfied with its pace.

[RamblinRed]

The number for SV is going to be fantastic no matter what.

I think what we are likely to see is the capacity issue for the first time post pandemic.

 

This is really the first time since pre-pandemic that a movie doesn't have all the runway it could have.

With more movies out now and more coming, it limits how many screens any movie can have. Even Mario didn't really have this issue as it really had little around it.

 

That is likely going to put a cap on what a movie can do opening weekend, but it also makes it more likely that a movie with strong WOM is going to have really strong runs.

 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Alpha finals for Across the Spider-Verse:

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0
6/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,919	328,182	848,127	38.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	35	247	722	1,433
ATP
$16.31

 

 

2pm start time makes these time zone breakdowns a little weird, but I think it still tells the story.

 

 

Across the Spider-Verse - Eastern Time Zone					Across the Spider-Verse - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3
2:00-3:59	30,434	17,552	16,629		2:00-3:59	21,072	9,632	8,345
4:00-4:59	7,404	9,267	11,784		4:00-4:59	3,889	3,726	6,039
5:00-5:59	14,409	7,285	7,290		5:00-5:59	8,153	3,982	3,221
6:00-6:59	19,395	24,751	28,374		6:00-6:59	10,767	14,667	15,595
7:00-7:59	20,632	29,545	27,500		7:00-7:59	13,990	15,450	14,302
8:00-8:59	16,790	14,065	15,413		8:00-8:59	10,240	7,717	7,331
9:00-9:59	15,257	9,767	22,546		9:00-9:59	8,639	4,328	10,306
10:00-10:59	12,791	15,141	13,713		10:00-10:59	6,867	7,615	5,980
11:00-11:59	2,555	4,931	1,893		11:00-11:59	1,095	1,443	486
12:00+	359	447	1,113		12:00+	135	234	302
Across the Spider-Verse - Mountain Time Zone					Across the Spider-Verse - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3		Showtimes	Sales	GotG3	AM3
2:00-3:59	5,661	2,968	2,479		2:00-3:59	17,431	11,252	8,903
4:00-4:59	1,450	1,542	1,442		4:00-4:59	3,879	5,603	7,425
5:00-5:59	2,342	1,391	1,041		5:00-5:59	6,786	4,511	3,527
6:00-6:59	2,353	3,943	4,176		6:00-6:59	10,053	12,199	13,551
7:00-7:59	3,503	4,506	3,888		7:00-7:59	12,231	15,029	14,392
8:00-8:59	2,787	2,412	1,864		8:00-8:59	8,374	9,263	7,887
9:00-9:59	2,297	1,118	2,736		9:00-9:59	9,615	6,256	11,946
10:00-10:59	1,667	1,973	1,250		10:00-10:59	8,247	11,189	8,550
11:00-11:59	189	419	177		11:00-11:59	3,547	3,525	2,125
12:00+	76	41	62		12:00+	821	859	1,302

 

Thanks Zack. ATP likely 15.9-16 considering ATP error we had recently. $5.2-5.3M gross, $17.5-18M.

 

Anyways,

 

First show i.e. matinee show makes up for 38% of total sales for Verse while GoTG & AM3 were 25%.

 

2nd show i.e. evening show makes 40% of Verse and 50% of other two.

 

  Night show similar for three.

Edited June 2, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[keysersoze123]

Spiderverse MTC2 previews - 244846/643797 3289097.43 4806 shows

 

I am definitely missing some shows. That should be accounted by the ATP. I am still not buying 16m previews. Seems too low. It beat Guardians in both MTC comfortably. 

 

Spiderverse MTC1 Friday PS Final - 274568/1211561 4498223.74 6794 shows 

 

Hopefully the movie is less constrained on capacity. I am expecting great walkups today. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spiderverse MTC2 previews - 244846/643797 3289097.43 4806 shows

 

I am definitely missing some shows. That should be accounted by the ATP. I am still not buying 16m previews. Seems too low. It beat Guardians in both MTC comfortably. 

 

Spiderverse MTC1 Friday PS Final - 274568/1211561 4498223.74 6794 shows 

 

Hopefully the movie is less constrained on capacity. I am expecting great walkups today. 

When was the run completed for Friday? Same time as for Guardians/Antman?

[Flopped]

What do y'all think Boogey did for Thursday? Did it cross 1M? 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

When was the run completed for Friday? Same time as for Guardians/Antman?

started around 10PM PST and finished an hour later. All within similar ballpark. I run Friday after last run of previews. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Flopped said:

What do y'all think Boogey did for Thursday? Did it cross 1M? 

Boogeyman MTC1

Wed - 6833/13485 102713.15 104 shows

Previews - 14702/91061 204506.70 874 shows

Friday - 11674/259067 158745.84 2426 shows

 

I am not seeing 1m. There were no early shows at MTC2 and so its not making a huge difference. I would say ~800k for previews and low double digits OW. 

 

[rehpyc]

For my MTC, admits were above both GoTG3 & AMaTWQ, but ATP was about $.50-60 lower.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Spider-Verse	3,484	137,675		121,925		15,750	5,416	0
Little Mermaid	3,427	80,200		67,349		12,851	21	10,903
Boogeyman	2,789	48,156		48,123		33	0	0
Fast X	2,844	35,324		35,231		93	0	0
Guardians Vol. 3	2,901	34,567		33,254		1,313	0	1,273
Mario Bros	1,953	24,847		24,225		622	0	592
About My Father	2,149	22,404		22,395		9	0	0
The Machine	2,122	21,646		21,640		6	0	0
Kandahar	1,412	7,625		7,611		14	0	0
You Hurt My Feelings	808	5,380		5,374		6	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

 

First showtimes run since... 3/10.  Hopefully somewhat helpful still.

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Spider-Verse 2 - 137,675 (3,484 TC)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273)

 - Shang-Chi - 133,770 (3,523)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392)

 - Minions 2 - 152,458 (3,602)

 

Not getting the showtimes that the other big animated movies received mainly due to the lower projections. I don't think there is any reason to worry about capacity issues though.

 

The Boogeyman - 48,156 (2,789 TC)

 - The Forever Purge - 46,917 (2,738)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

 - Firestarter - 48,840 (2,998)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659)

 - The Menu - 45,234 (2,830)

 

Pretty good company for the Boogeyman.  Seems to be a standard horror release.

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Transformers (6/7 EA) - 639 (605 TC)

Transformers - 72,589 (2,647 TC)

 - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Shazam 2 - 64,772 (2,727)

 - Morbius - 72,706 (2,812)

 - Black Adam - 78,913 (2,901)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

The Flash (6/12 EA) - 25 (25 TC)

The Flash - 14,296 (2,440)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 

Elemental - 10,493 (2,338 TC)

 - NTTD - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 11,617 (2,405)

 

The Blackening (6/14 EA) - 456 (434 TC)

The Blackening - 1,870 (846 TC)

 - House of Gucci - 2,045 (1,402)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

 - X - 1,829 (1,297)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Indiana Jones - 13,387 (2,441 TC)

 - Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934)

 - Top Gun - 8,786 (822)

 - JW: Dominion - 18,957 (2,593)

 

Not many comps in this range.

 

[Sir Tiki]

Before we move onto the next thread, I just want to say thank you to the trackers for all the hard work you do here. It's very much appreciated, and all of you are doing a great job. 💓

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Boogeyman MTC1

Wed - 6833/13485 102713.15 104 shows

Previews - 14702/91061 204506.70 874 shows

Friday - 11674/259067 158745.84 2426 shows

 

I am not seeing 1m. There were no early shows at MTC2 and so its not making a huge difference. I would say ~800k for previews and low double digits OW. 

 

So the 1.1m reported by Deadline must include EA

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	266	22261	32005	9744	30.45%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	15
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	1161
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1676

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET [4:50-5:20]	152.04		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	152.04%		16.33m
Bats [3:00-4:30]	82.88		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		3951	246.62%		17.90m
Sonic [3:55-4:15]	246.62		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	246.62%		15.41m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	88.86		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	88.86%		15.99m
Min 2 [3:50-4:20]	147.84		1571	6591		0/218	23799/30390	21.69%		6591	147.84%		15.89m
BA [3:45-4:35]	216.82		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	216.82%		16.48m
GOTG3 [3:45-4:30]	90.64		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	90.64%		15.86m
FX [3:50-4:15]	236.39		717	4122		0/243	29125/33247	12.40%		4122	236.39%		17.73m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	148.51		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	148.51%		15.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     2536/8811  [28.78% sold]
Matinee:    1006/2951  [34.09% | 10.32% of all tickets sold]
----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.31032x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [18.08m]    
AtSV = 0.80217x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [21.22m]    
AtSV = 1.75655x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [17.17m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

===

 

Despite a insanely huge amount of walkups, there's no way for me to massage the numbers — it's just not performing like an 18m-20m opener locally.  Even bringing in The Batman, which is one of the more recent-ish films to have a big under-performance locally still didn't quite get it to 18m.

 

Don't want to herd, and I'm already resigned to being under, but I think if I'm being honest Sacramento is pointing to 17.5m +/- .8m.   It's probably aksually pointing to 17m flat, but I'm dragging it up a bit against my better judgement.

 

Can't even really see any rhyme or reason on the under-performance as it's cutting across a few different genres.

 

Quote

UPDATED after THURSDAY EXCLUSIVE: Sony is reporting that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse previews came in at $17.35M, still the second highest for an animated film after The Incredibles 2‘s $18.5M. Exits from Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak from last night’s heavy fan turnout is 5 stars.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Porthos