The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Sacramento has looked 8.5-10ish since over a week ago. Obviously I understand people hoping for that to increase, but at the same time there was no particular reason to expect it to increase. It will probably underindex a little but if you look at all the other data that’s been posted 10 would be a clearly above median outcome from here.

I feel like the most it can push is 12 at the absolute max with 11 being more realistic. 10 sounds about right though.

[YSLDC]

So the dream scenario is recovering to 12M previews and having a X7 IM for a 85M weekend?

[Mulder]

11 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

So the dream scenario is recovering to 12M previews and having a X7 IM for a 85M weekend?

Yeah definitely. Like it wouldn't quite be...great (Opening under JL2017 is just...not good) but it wouldn't be the disaster scenarios of 70 million or less.

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, 21C said:

So... it's looking at around 9 million in pre-sales based on this data? Am I reading this correctly? 

 

Based on this data?  Probably, yeah.  Is that what it's gonna be?  Hell if I know.

 

Even setting aside the point that DC historically under-performs in this market compared to the MCU for whatever reason (and as an aside why I ain't using any of those films as comps), part of the problem is, as @Mulder put it, the film isn't collapsing or taking off.  Or rather, at the theater level, it's growing at a decent pace at some bell-weather theaters and not at all at other bell-weather theaters.  And those are dangerous films to try to project out, even this close to release, as one trend can easily overcome the other.  At least for me.

 

But, yeah, for now I'd say that's about right.  Even presuming I'm using the right comps here, which isn't certain at all.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

[charlie Jatinder]

1. Flash has low sales, post it here.

2. Why Flash has low sales, don’t post it here. Go to Flash thread.

 

I don’t want to read shitposts, doom & gloom posts when I come here. Thanks.

[vafrow]

Question about the markets that are being actively tracked like Sacto, Philly and Orlando. Which ones are schools on summer break or will be on summer break starting this weekend.

 

For Ontario, schools are in session right until June 30th. That's pretty much the norm in other Canadian provinces as well. With seemingly a lot of schools on break stateside, that would contribute to my region underindexing. But I'm not sure how prevalent it is.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/9/2023 at 7:24 PM, across the Jat verse said:

The Flash MiniTC2 T-7

Previews -  3087/56046 (206 showings) $45,620

Comps
0.57x Spider-Verse 2 - $9.9M
0.96x Eternals - $9.5M (inflation-adjusted)
2.11x Black Adam - $16M
4.90x Shazam!! - $16.5M

The Flash MiniTC2 T-4

Previews -  3692/56827 (209 showings) $53,809

Comps
0.51x Spider-Verse 2 - $8.8M
0.90x Eternals - $9M (inflation-adjusted)
1.83x Black Adam - $13.9M
4.63x Shazam!! - $15.7M

YIKES.

[M37]

On 6/9/2023 at 8:35 AM, M37 said:

Elemental T-7 Forecast

 

Admittedly, not a whole of data on this this one, and what numbers are available are pretty low, so we're in sub-$30M bomb territory, right? Well ... with the caveat that true family movies are the most difficult to extrapolate precisely given small baseline sales and massively high late growth rate, it doesn't look quite that bad to me

 

The pace of sales heading into the final week for Sacto is just a shade below where Minions landed at this same checkpoint last summer, and would therefore would lean on that comp moving forward. If it were to hold, would expect to see 500+ sales at T-4 checkpoint (if you're able to grab that one) and finishing at 7-8x current sales total.

 

 

Not surprising given proximity to Disney, but a higher volume of early sales and correspondingly lower pace for this market, but increasing to 3-4x current value by final count is a good benchmark, which would be 30-40% of TLM final. Would pencil in 850-900+ tickets sold by T-4 to stay in that range of pace

 

@keysersoze123 are you able to run an MTC1 pull for Elemental? Would like to have that value in hand to better track big picture growth rate

 

Not going to do a full chart, but something in the range of $3M-$4M+ previews, with a standard family film summer IM of ~10x seems right ... or pretty much right in line with the $31-$41M OW forecast from PBO. However, will be curious to see if the metro over-index (or more accurately, smaller market under-index) that helped to drag down totals for both TLM and Lightyear continues with this film

Only time for a quick update…

 

While pace has been good, performing like a typical family film, it’s not Minions good, and with Disney family films being walk-up lighter of late, can probably cross $4M off the expectations, previews more likely to land in ~$3M range 

 

Do still think a 10x+ IM is likely, so low $30s OW, but chance it falls down into high $20s. Will look a bit more if/when @keysersoze123 and @katnisscinnaplex update as well 

 

PS - if you want to avoid the doom & gloom of Elemental and … that other movie this week [update this evening] can take a ride on the Minions final week coaster, starting on page 346

[JWR]

Is anyone tracking No Hard Feelings or Joy Ride?

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, JWR said:

Is anyone tracking No Hard Feelings or Joy Ride?

no hard feelings tickets haven't gone on sale yet

[JpTransformers]

At this point in the championship can we expect big turnarounds for flash in the domestic game?

Definitely in China so far it's terrible, it lost 3 positions in the ranking of people's interest on the Maoyan website. surpassed even by Elemental

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

21 minutes ago, JpTransformers said:

At this point in the championship can we expect big turnarounds for flash in the domestic game?

I would say it’s highly unlikely. There’s nothing left to bump ticket sales at this point. I would not be overly shocked with a Quantumania style final week, though that may be too harsh.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

I would say it’s highly unlikely. There’s nothing left to bump ticket sales at this point. I would not be overly shocked with a Quantumania style final week, though that may be too harsh.

Gut check: shouldn’t be nearly this bad, QM actively tanked from the rotten rather than just plateauing at a low level

 

Actually checking some data: the comp vs QM should increase some 40-50% from now til finals but it may still appear to trend badly in various samples going by the straight comps since people have mostly been using optimistic ones which give higher straight comps that will come down

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

35 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Gut check: shouldn’t be nearly this bad, QM actively tanked from the rotten rather than just plateauing at a low level

 

Actually checking some data: the comp vs QM should increase some 40-50% from now til finals but it may still appear to trend badly in various samples going by the straight comps since people have mostly been using optimistic ones which give higher straight comps that will come down

Blah. QM really has a horrific final week. What recent film had a equivalent ramp up to what you’re expecting for The Flash?

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

Question about the markets that are being actively tracked like Sacto, Philly and Orlando. Which ones are schools on summer break or will be on summer break starting this weekend.

 

For Ontario, schools are in session right until June 30th. That's pretty much the norm in other Canadian provinces as well. With seemingly a lot of schools on break stateside, that would contribute to my region underindexing. But I'm not sure how prevalent it is.

Orlando’s been on summer break for a couple of weeks now (May 26th) 

[vafrow]

47 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

I would say it’s highly unlikely. There’s nothing left to bump ticket sales at this point. I would not be overly shocked with a Quantumania style final week, though that may be too harsh.

 

My only theory on what could bump this in the coming days is the end of the NBA playoffs. 

 

It's been one of the biggest advertising methods for this film, and the season could come to a close tonight. If it were to happen, game 6 would happen on Thursday.

 

A sudden end to the season, anyone regularly watching the games suddenly has their Thursday night free, and have been regularly watching promotion for the film.

 

It's a long shot, but, the campaign has focused a lot on sports fans, and once the NBA and NHL playoffs finish off this week, there's not a lot on.

[Cooper Legion]

25 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

Blah. QM really has a horrific final week. What recent film had a equivalent ramp up to what you’re expecting for The Flash?

None of these are exactly great comps in a traditional genre/size/reception similarity sense, but purely in terms of final:t-4 I guess something like:

TLM

Dune

A2

Batman true th

 

some will be better or worse depending on various regional idiosyncrasies 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/11/2023 at 9:57 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-4	Jax	5	12	1	10	966	1.04%
		Phx	6	16	3	21	1,707	1.23%
		Ral	6	14	2	11	802	1.37%
	Total		17	42	6	42	3,475	1.21%
Blackening (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	4	7	72	357	20.17%
		Phx	3	3	-2	69	210	32.86%
		Ral	6	6	2	31	655	4.73%
	Total		13	13	7	172	1,222	14.08%
Elemental	T-4	Jax	5	40	4	68	5,234	1.30%
		Phx	6	42	12	105	5,156	2.04%
		Ral	8	39	5	84	4,743	1.77%
	Total		19	121	21	257	15,133	1.70%
Flash	T-4	Jax	6	64	31	586	10,050	5.83%
		Phx	6	48	43	696	8,749	7.96%
		Ral	8	63	55	536	8,688	6.17%
	Total		20	175	129	1,818	27,487	6.61%

 

Flash T-4 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.163x (10.24m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.16x (10.73m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.26x (9.4m)

 - F9 - 1.465x (10.4m)

 - Eternals - .736x (6.99m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Morbius - 1.849x (10.54m)

 

Not much change here.

 

Blackening T-4 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .913x (1.1m)

 - Men - 913x (386k)

 - Firestarter - 1x (375k)

 - Night House - 2.47x (642k)

 

Blackening + EA T-4 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - missed

 - Smile + EA - missed

 

Elemental T-4 comps

 - Lightyear - missed

 - Strange World - 5.84x (4.67m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.59x (2.38m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.25x (2.65m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-3	Jax	5	12	-2	8	966	0.83%
		Phx	6	16	1	22	1,707	1.29%
		Ral	6	14	0	11	802	1.37%
	Total		17	42	-1	41	3,475	1.18%
Blackening (EA)	T-2	Jax	4	4	1	73	357	20.45%
		Phx	3	3	3	72	210	34.29%
		Ral	6	6	5	36	655	5.50%
	Total		13	13	9	181	1,222	14.81%
Elemental	T-3	Jax	5	40	16	84	5,234	1.60%
		Phx	6	42	4	109	5,156	2.11%
		Ral	8	39	14	98	4,743	2.07%
	Total		19	121	34	291	15,133	1.92%
Flash	T-3	Jax	6	64	59	645	10,050	6.42%
		Phx	6	48	67	763	8,749	8.72%
		Ral	8	63	65	601	8,688	6.92%
	Total		20	175	191	2,009	27,487	7.31%
Indiana Jones	T-17	Jax	6	64	228	228	10,205	2.23%
		Phx	6	43	136	136	8,309	1.64%
		Ral	8	53	253	253	7,972	3.17%
	Total		20	160	617	617	26,486	2.33%
Oppenheimer	T-38	Jax	6	23	119	119	4,698	2.53%
		Phx	6	26	110	110	4,969	2.21%
		Ral	8	22	107	107	2,837	3.77%
	Total		20	71	336	336	12,504	2.69%

 

Flash T-3 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.106x (9.73m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.13x (10.64m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.2x (9.11m)

 - F9 - 1.387x (9.85m)

 - Eternals - .756x (7.18m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Morbius - 1.792x (10.22m)

 

Fell against most of the comps again.  Hanging on to 10m but needs to bounce back.

 

Blackening T-3 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .554x (665m)

 - Men - 621x (263k)

 - Firestarter - .554x (208k)

 - Night House - 2.28x (592k)

 

Blackening + EA T-3 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - missed

 - Smile + EA - missed

 - The Menu + EA - .961x (961k)

 

Elemental T-3 comps

 - Lightyear - .401x (1.96m)

 - Strange World - 5.11x (4.08m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.52x (2.29m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.39x (2.72m)

 

Indiana Jones T-17 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .337x (5.73m)

 - F9 - 1.399x (9.93m)

 - JW3 - .334x (5.91m)

 - NTTD - 2.18x (11.34m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .427x (6.27m)

 

Oppenheimer T-38 comps

 - JW3 - .385x (6.74m)