The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[The GOAT]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

Ruby Gillman tracking so low doesn't surprise me, nor does it indicate the death of original animation. It simply looks bad, and hasn't had any marketing on top of that. When a movie has such low awareness, and those that do know it exists think it looks bad, of course it will track low. Audiences being more selective isn't the same as "theatres are dead." 

Who the hell would want to see an Octopus Protagonist anyway? Repulsive and Disgusting

[MattW]

MI7 showtimes came up for the theater I go to. 2pm previews, 8 showtimes so far with a 2pm and 9pm imax show, so still room for one more showtime in between those two for imax. There's more previews for MI though I believe on both sunday and monday? I forget where I read that.

[Bob Train]

Would all those free screenings WB did hurt the previews? I'd imagine if they had any effect it would be on the previews.

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1 Previews(T-4) - 11317/301405 177836.43 2151 shows

Elemental MTC1 Previews(T-3) - 13652/312865 211666.02 2263 shows +2335

 

first day above 2K sales since opening day. Let us see how tuesday goes. Can it double again. 

[Dlund87]

Starting to see Ticket sales for the Flash pick up in Houston. Not just the premium showings but tve standard ones as well. Word is spreading. Anyone able to pull up the Comps for greater Houston area?

[vafrow]

On 6/12/2023 at 3:18 AM, vafrow said:

 

T-4 Flash Thursday preview update

Milton, ON

 

Good news is that there's actual ticket sales in this update. And they seem to mainly keep pace with comps averaging 12.5% per day, which is adequate for this period. They just don't make up ground.

 

0.904x of Fast X for $6.8M

1.727x of ROTB for $13.1M

0.262x of ATSV for $4.5M

 

 

I didn't properly track GOTG3, but, I did track it's T-1 and final sales. To get a sense of what's needed, to reach a $10M comp against that film by T-1 then it would need 41% daily growth for the test of the week.

 

T-3 Flash Thursday preview update

Milton, ON

 

I wasn't planning to do daily updates on this, but, given the traffic in this thread, I figure I might as well add more data, as limited as it is.

 

Sales did see a 20% bump, which is what it needs to stay pace right now. Just not enough to make up ground.

 

0.885x of Fast X for $6.6M

2.000x of ROTB for $15.2M

0.249x of ATSV for $4.3M

 

ROTB had its review embargo lift on the T-2 update, but it still didn't see much movement until it's final day walk ups.

 

Schools are also in full session right now in this region, so things will underindex for previews compared to other areas.

 

@Tinalera have you tracked Flash for any Canadian theatres? I'd be curious how other theatres are doing in this region.

Edited June 13, 2023 by vafrow

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2023 at 12:34 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-4]

434/9492 (4.57% sold) [+51 tickets]

0.43618x GBA            at T-4     [1.96m]

0.31888x Sonic 2      at T-4      [1.99m]

0.30628x Minions 2  at T-4      [3.29m]

0.45397x Nope         at T-4      [2.91m]

0.70227x Shazam 2  at T-4      [2.39m]

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-3]

532/10148 (4.57% sold) [+98 tickets]

0.45200x GBA            at T-3     [2.03m]

0.32638x Sonic 2      at T-3      [2.04m]

0.27927x Minions 2  at T-3      [3.00m]

0.43750x Nope         at T-3      [2.80m]

0.76218x Shazam 2  at T-3      [2.59m]

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2023 at 12:35 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-39]

527/7572 [6.96% sold] [+15 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              288/776   [+2 tickets] [54.65% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   194/3558 [+8 tickets] [36.81% of all tickets sold]

Standard:         45/3238   [+5 tickets] [8.54% of all tickets sold]

 

 

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-38]

546/7572 [7.21% sold] [+19 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              295/776   [+7 tickets] [54.03% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   208/3558 [+8 tickets] [37.00% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           49/3238 [+4 tickets] [8.97% of all tickets sold]

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2023 at 12:36 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18463	19521	1058	5.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

35

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	48.85		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	9.65%		8.79m
FX	126.10		28	839		0/182	26871/27710	3.03%		4122	25.67%		9.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     205/6084  [3.37% sold]
Matinee:    65/1728  [3.76% | 6.14% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	125	18415	19521	1106	5.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	48

NOTE:  The local drive-in, which is non-reserved seating, finally checked in with its initial set.

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.95		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	10.09%		8.99m
FX	127.13		31	870		0/182	26837/27707	3.14%		4122	26.83%		9.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     203/6084  [3.34% sold]
Matinee:    65/1728  [3.76% | 5.88% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2023 at 12:37 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	22946	25142	2196	8.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

173

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	36.47		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	18.68%		7.88m
BA	116.44		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	48.87%		8.85m
Shazam 2	355.34		49	618		0/110	16577/17195	3.59%		1663	132.05%		12.08m
Wick 4	95.27		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	40.31%		8.48m
AtSV	55.69		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	22.54%		9.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     380/5286  [7.19% sold]
Matinee:    64/2140  [2.99% | 2.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I almost posted the "Prepare the world for bad news" gif, but that would have been over-dramatic.  Plus the sample recovered somewhat on the back two-fifths (was pacing to be about a 130-140 day for a while).

 

As it is though, no Sunday breakout whatsoever. Any other conclusions, I'll leave for y'all to draw.

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	193	23824	26237	2413	9.20%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	15
Total Net Seats Added Today	1095
Total Seats Sold Today	217

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.65		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	20.52%		7.70m
BA	111.10		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	53.69%		8.44m
Shazam 2	345.70		80	698		0/139	19789/20487	3.41%		1663	145.10%		11.75m
Wick 4	91.16		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	44.29%		8.11m
AtSV	54.12		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	24.76%		9.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     417/6041  [6.90% sold]
Matinee:    77/2494  [3.09% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not exactly a great day of sales locally. To say the least.

[Mulder]

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	193	23824	26237	2413	9.20%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	15
Total Net Seats Added Today	1095
Total Seats Sold Today	217

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	35.65		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	20.52%		7.70m
BA	111.10		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	53.69%		8.44m
Shazam 2	345.70		80	698		0/139	19789/20487	3.41%		1663	145.10%		11.75m
Wick 4	91.16		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	44.29%		8.11m
AtSV	54.12		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	24.76%		9.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     417/6041  [6.90% sold]
Matinee:    77/2494  [3.09% | 3.19% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not exactly a great day of sales locally. To say the least.

Was waiting for this. I'll see how the next few days look but, feeling pretty confident in 10 being the Thursday number (accounting for Sacramento underindexing on DC films).

[Cooper Legion]

On 6/10/2023 at 3:38 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto:

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

T-5 9.45M

T-4 9.35M

T-3 9.08M

 

So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. 
 

Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier):

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

T-5 9.14M

T-4 8.85M

T-3 8.48M

A majority of these comps are DC already, so not sure how much you can really adjust up to account for Sacto DC underindex — in fact the numbers from only the 3 Dc comps is 8.96M! Definitely feel that 9.0 is more likely than 10.0

[M37]

28 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

A majority of these comps are DC already, so not sure how much you can really adjust up to account for Sacto DC underindex — in fact the numbers from only the 3 Dc comps is 8.96M! Definitely feel that 9.0 is more likely than 10.0

Based on pace - still tracking closely with Fast X - would expect Sacto to finish around 5,000+ in sales for Flash (edit: 5200 to be precise)

 

But the bigger question is the PSM. For reference, the typical PSM for this market is ~$1670 ... which is right where Black Adam landed, so no under-index there (which goes back to my theory that BA played much more like a Rock action vehicle than a true DC film).  Batman was higher (so under-index) at $1837, but EA may have been a factor given Sacto is MTC1 light and those made a good chunk of the EA gross. But Shazam? Over $2000 PSM! Maybe that was a (lack of) Spring Break influenced number ... or maybe this market has kinda checked out on DC since the reboot announcement?

 

Sacto is usually the canary in the coal mine (as it was with ATSV) and has the lowest comp values on the board - and falling! - but given where other markets/comps land, would lean towards the under-index and $10M (or at least close to it) being more likely than $9M

Edited June 13, 2023 by M37

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, Dlund87 said:

Starting to see Ticket sales for the Flash pick up in Houston. Not just the premium showings but tve standard ones as well. Word is spreading. Anyone able to pull up the Comps for greater Houston area?

 

If anyone had details on Houston market, they'd be publishing it already.

 

If you see an interesting trend emerging, document sales for whatever selection of theaters you're looking at and check in on them daily. You won't have comps, but you can still measure growth. You can then see if growth is in line with other markets or if its over or under indexing.

[vafrow]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Based on pace - still tracking closely with Fast X - would expect Sacto to finish around 5,000+ in sales for Flash (edit: 5200 to be precise)

 

But the bigger question is the PSM. For reference, the typical PSM for this market is ~$1670 ... which is right where Black Adam landed, so no under-index there (which goes back to my theory that BA played much more like a Rock action vehicle than a true DC film).  Batman was higher (so under-index) at $1837, but EA may have been a factor given Sacto is MTC1 light and those made a good chunk of the EA gross. But Shazam? Over $2000 PSM! Maybe that was a (lack of) Spring Break influenced number ... or maybe this market has kinda checked out on DC since the reboot announcement?

 

Sacto is usually the canary in the coal mine (as it was with ATSV) and has the lowest comp values on the board - and falling! - but given where other markets/comps land, would lean towards the under-index and $10M (or at least close to it) being more likely than $9M

 

I'm going to ask the dumb question. What does PSM stand for?

[M37]

23 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm going to ask the dumb question. What does PSM stand for?

Not a dumb question at all! PSM = Pre-Sale Multiplier, so the ratio of actual gross/ticket sold. If you’re using comps - at least the right ones - the math is baked in, but since I focus on raw ticket sales it requires an extra step to convert to $ value

 

It’s an inverse relationship, so the lower the PSM number, the better a particular tracking sample did vs average (aka over-index), and higher it goes the worse it did (under-index) 

 

For reference, Alpha/MTC1 usually lands in $56-$57 PSM range, but for ATSV it was ~$53, and TLM was closer to $50. That’s why I’ve noted those films played metro (ie big city) heavy 

[vafrow]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not a dumb question at all! PSM = Pre-Sale Multiplier, so the ratio of actual gross/ticket sold. If you’re using comps - at least the right ones - the math is baked in, but since I focus on raw ticket sales it requires an extra step to convert to $ value

 

It’s an inverse relationship, so the lower the PSM number, the better a particular tracking sample did vs average (aka over-index), and higher it goes the worse it did (under-index) 

 

For reference, Alpha/MTC1 usually lands in $56-$57 PSM range, but for ATSV it was ~$53, and TLM was closer to $50. That’s why I’ve noted those films played metro (ie big city) heavy 

 

That's helpful.

 

For my further context, what is the sales figure you're using. Is it the final Thursday preview presale volume? And is the multiplier to get to your predicted Thursday preview total domestic ticket revenue?

 

Regarding Shazam, I do agree that the figures on this are wonky. It's the first film I tracked, but just did T-1 and T-0. But, because my region was on spring break, ticket sales were absolutely crazy and very off trend from everywhere else. The PSM for that was $16.6K (if I understand the calculations right). For ATSV for example, mine is $51.1K which over indexed here.l, but still nowhere near that Shazam number.

 

If other areas on spring break were seeing that type of distortion, it makes any comparison against that Shazam figure very difficult.

[GOGODanca]

6 hours ago, Dlund87 said:

Starting to see Ticket sales for the Flash pick up in Houston. Not just the premium showings but tve standard ones as well. Word is spreading. Anyone able to pull up the Comps for greater Houston area?

i track some AMC's in houston area, as of yesterday my comp with Black Adam fell once again, i'm gonna do another comp today and then one on thursday

[ThatWaluigiDude]

13 hours ago, AJG said:

Is the Ruby Gillman number low enough for you people to finally accept there isn’t a ‘Disney+ is hurting BO’ problem it’s just that original animation is dead (and nobody should be spending $200m to produce it)?

People aren't just going to see an original animation just for the sake of being original if the movie just looks generic and with very little selling point (That for both Ruby and Elemental). Bad Guys did well last year, because unlike Ruby Gillman the trailers were good and made the movie look fun.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Anyway, despite everything I still insist that number is way too low for Ruby Gillman. Do anyone is keeping up on how it is doing on tracking so far?

Edited June 13, 2023 by ThatWaluigiDude