The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cmasterclay]

I don't actually think Mission Impossible will do under 200 million, I just like to embrace the bleakness so as to not be disapponted.

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, Redolent said:

Seeing Barbie (and/or seeing it as a double feature with Oppenheimer), had become a bit of an ‘event’ for some people, meaning advance planning and coordination are needed. Especially if you’re grabbing these tickets. I don’t think it’s comparable with Mission Impossible and its typical demographic, but doesn’t mean MI won’t do well.

Seriously this is a thing people are doing.  Wow 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Asteroid City (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	11	44	209	854	24.47

 

No Hard Feelings (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	26	26	81	2551	3.18

 

50% increase for No Hard Feelings, of course easy to do when it's from a tiny starting point, but it has to start somewhere. Audience score starting to trickle in and it's at 94% from these first few audiences, which is a good sign. This NEEDS good audience Word of Mouth

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Asteroid City (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	19	83	292	1796	16.26

 

Finally a few more shows, though it still has a low count. Decent growth, almost double the new sales it had at T-3.

 

No Hard Feelings (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	42	20	101	3676	2.75

 

A lot of new shows, but still super anemic sales.

 

Mission Impossible (Tuesday previews, T-21, and Monday EA, T-20):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 14 theaters	74	291	291	13666	2.13
Monday EA: 3 theaters	3	209	209	483	43.27
TOTALS:	77	500	500	14149	3.53

 

Finally got to this one, the Wednesday release with Monday EA had me procrastinating a bit. I will have an Indy comp at T-14; Next update for this one on Friday.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Barbie is coming. It's completely annihilating Wednesday the 19th early access showings at the NY theaters around me

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

Crawdads?

Barbie is gonna be way too big for that raw comp to be of any value.

[charlie Jatinder]

Those of you can, I will suggest to ignore IMAX sales of Oppenheimer and comp the regular & non-IMAX PLF with $4-5M previews films.

 

For Barbie, go with Dont Worry Darling

[keysersoze123]

This Week Openers

MTC1 Previews(T-2)

No Hard Feelings - 10479/144857 154749.71 +3682

Asteroid City - 8207/68400 117860.49 +2175

 

Asteroid City probably just above 1m and No Hard Feeling could get close to 2m.  

[Grebacio]

39 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

 

 

For Barbie, go with Dont Worry Darling

DWD was on Fall an Rated R. I suggested Crawdads since it's an IP but not a sequel/remake, is PG-13 and is a summer release

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/9/2023 at 7:14 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Oppenheimer MiniTC2 T-42

 

Previews -  774/24643 (94 showings) $12,173

FRI - 821/40142 (146 showings) $13,406

 

For THU, regular format has sold 22 tix. IMAX up from 396 to 542.

Oppenheimer MiniTC2 T-30

 

Previews - 1121/24760 (99 showings) $17006

 

Comps
0.17x Black Panther - $4.76M
0.33x GoTG 2 - $5.94M

 

Comps (without IMAX)

0.63x Fast X - $4.7M (with IMAX $10.5M)

0.29x JWD - $5.22M ($11.3M)

 

Not perfect comps, but feels like $6-7M.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

DWD was on Fall an Rated R. I suggested Crawdads since it's an IP but not a sequel/remake, is PG-13 and is a summer release

IDK, I could be very wrong, I expect Barbie to lean very adult.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

This Week Openers

MTC1 Previews(T-2)

No Hard Feelings - 10479/144857 154749.71 +3682

Asteroid City - 8207/68400 117860.49 +2175

 

Asteroid City probably just above 1m and No Hard Feeling could get close to 2m.  

Oh that would be decent for No Hard Feelings. High teens rather than low double digits. 

[vafrow]

On 6/17/2023 at 10:12 AM, vafrow said:

Milton, ON

Various updates

 

With Flash done, I've been tracking some of the other films, but nothing has been interesting enough to post, so, thought I'd just make a single post.

 

T-6 No Hard Feelings

Zero tickets sold. Only became available a few days ago, but, apparently, no one is super eager to buy tickets in my area.

 

T-13 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

 

Five tickets sold. I've been tracking since T-36, where three tickets were sold on day one, and then nothing until this mornings update to get it to five tickets. That's Canada Day weekend up here, so people will have time to catch up to it if they don't get out day one. Still, a bit disappointing to see it be so flat.

 

T-28 Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1

 

8 tickets sold. It sold on day one, and has stayed steady. I don't expect much movement until after Indiana Jones weekend.

 

As things get closer, will try and update, but, that's where things sit.

 

Milton, ON

 

Various updates

 

Activity is still very low that it's hard to justify separate posts.

 

T-2 No Hard Feelings

 

Sales up to 5 right now. Same as Book Club 2 at the same time. Air had 9 tickets sold on its T-1, so maybe it gets up to that range.

 

T-9 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

 

This remains the most depressing update. Sales stuck at 5. At this point, all comps were well ahead

Fast X - 7 tickets

ATSV -90 tickets

T:ROTB - 11 tickets

Flash - 30 tickets

 

Not sure when we may see a rally here, but it's bleak.

 

T-25 Mission Impossible 7

 

12 tickets sold.

 

Comps

ATSV - 24 tickets

T:ROTB - 3 rickets

 

My theatre has discount Tuesday pricing as well, so that'll throw off actual gross.

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by vafrow

[Bobzaruni]

3 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

IDK, I could be very wrong, I expect Barbie to lean very adult.

It'll lean adult but I think the Kid's audience will make its trajectory look different to DWD. ATSV could honestly be a good comp if barbie has similar reception pre-release even if it has a larger kids/family audience.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Bobzaruni said:

It'll lean adult but I think the Kid's audience will make its trajectory look different to DWD. ATSV could honestly be a good comp if barbie has similar reception pre-release even if it has a larger kids/family audience.

ATSV is too big for it.

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

It'll lean adult but I think the Kid's audience will make its trajectory look different to DWD. ATSV could honestly be a good comp if barbie has similar reception pre-release even if it has a larger kids/family audience.

I think TLM would be a good one, given both are equally kid and female-friendly 

Edited June 21, 2023 by Borobudur

[Porthos]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:55 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	50	7001	7654	653	8.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

11

 

T-31 Comps:

	%		Sold T-31	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	44.97		43	1452		0/171	22337/23789	6.10%		10966	5.95%		8.10m
BP2	13.45		237	4855		1/294	32167/37022	13.11%		16800	3.89%		3.77m
FX	97.46		9	670		0/182	27068/27738	2.42%		4122	15.84%		7.31m
Indy 5	102.83		35	635		0/124	18892/19527	3.25%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     132/2968  [4.45% sold]
Matinee:    5/81  [6.17% | 0.77% of all tickets sold]
---

 70mm:              336/776    [+4 tickets] [51.45% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   233/3558  [+4 tickets] [35.68% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           84/3238   [+3 tickets] [12.86% of all tickets sold]

 

====================

 

 

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	51	7037	7708	671	8.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	54
Total Seats Sold Today	18

 

T-30 Comps:

	%		Sold T-30	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	45.52		22	1474		0/171	22312/23786	6.20%		10966	6.12%		8.19m
BP2	13.38		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	3.99%		3.75m
FX	98.97		8	678		0/182	27060/27738	2.44%		4122	16.28%		7.42m
Indy 5	100.45		33	668		0/124	18859/19527	3.42%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     138/2968  [4.65% sold]
Matinee:          7/81  [8.64% | 1.04% of all tickets sold]
---

 70mm:              347/776    [+11 tickets] [51.71% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   236/3558  [+3 tickets] [35.17% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           88/3374   [+3 tickets] [13.11% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:56 AM, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	23714	24366	652	2.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

46

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	36.04		41	1809		0/179	22839/24647	7.34%		10966	5.95%		6.49m
Ava 2	35.03		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	7.26%		5.96m
FX	83.59		16	780		0/182	26942/27722	2.81%		4122	15.82%		6.27m
Indy 5	72.85		48	895		0/124	18626/19521	4.58%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:         76/7967  [0.95% sold]
Matinee:        4/1687  [0.24% | 0.61% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    78/6018  [1.30% | 11.96% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]   

---

Sun:   44/457           [9.63% sold]   [+0 tickets]

Mon:  326/2256       [14.45% sold] [+24 tickets]

Tue:   282/21653     [1.30% sold]    [+22 tickets]

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	23666	24366	700	2.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

48

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	37.23		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		10966	6.38%		6.70m
Ava 2	34.48		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	7.79%		5.86m
Wick 4	106.54		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	12.85%		9.48m
FX	89.17		5	785		0/182	26937/27722	2.83%		4122	16.98%		6.69m
Indy 5	75.11		37	932		0/124	18589/19521	4.77%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:     83/7967  [1.04% sold]
Matinee:    9/1687  [0.53% | 1.29% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    85/6018  [1.41% | 12.14% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]   

---

Sun:   46/457           [10.07% sold]   [+2 tickets]

Mon:  354/2256       [15.69% sold] [+28 tickets]

Tue:   300/21653     [1.39% sold]    [+18 tickets]

 

=======

 

Maybe having the social media embargo lift three weeks out wasn't the greatest of ways to drum up interest in a flick after all. :--/

 

NB:  Should still be fine if the reviews are as good as the reactions last night — plus this is a five [and a half] day opener, so tickets could be more spread out than a Fri opener.  Plus this really outta be a back-loaded type property.  Just noting the complete lack of a social media embargo lift bump.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/20/2023 at 12:57 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	134	19034	20571	1537	7.47%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	330
Total Seats Sold Today	114

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	161.79		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		3737	41.13%		10.03m
JWD	48.24		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	14.02%		8.68m
BA	137.11		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	34.20%		10.42m
Wick 4	110.42		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	28.21%		9.83m
FX	118.41		82	1298		0/178	26412/27710	4.68%		4122	37.29%		8.88m
TLM	76.66		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	8.87%		6561	23.43%		7.90m
Flash	107.56		59	1429		0/178	23719/25148	5.68%		5327	28.85%		10.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     302/6084  [4.96% sold]
Matinee:    124/1728  [7.18% | 8.07% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	134	18943	20571	1628	7.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

91

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	156.84		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	43.56%		9.72m
JWD	48.17		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	14.85%		8.67m
BA	136.58		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	36.23%		10.38m
Wick 4	111.28		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	29.88%		9.90m
FX	119.53		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	39.50%		8.96m
TLM	76.43		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	24.81%		7.87m
Flash	105.10		120	1549		0/175	23344/24893	6.22%		5327	30.56%		10.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     314/6084  [5.16% sold]
Matinee:    129/1728  [7.47% | 7.92% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

****EARLY ACCESS SHOWINGS ONLY SO FAR****

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	3	177	373	196	52.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

196

 

ONE DAY ***ONLY*** COMP

EA-Exclusive — Day 1:

%

EA Tickets Sold

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Bats

52.83

371

371

0/2

56/427

86.89%

11757

1.67%

11.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

======

 

Okay, I ****SUPER HESITATED**** to post the above comp, but it is literally the only "EA tickets-only" comp I have in the last two-plus years I have of post-'rona tracking (ftr The Batman had two days of EA-exclusive ticket sales vs Barbie's one, and the above comp is after Bats Day 1 of exclusive EA sales).  There's all sorts of reasons not to read that much into it.

 

...

 

There's also all sorts of reasons to read a fair amount into it.  Quite a bit, aksually. 

 

The big wild card is, Barbie Super Fans are indeed out there and can rival (and in fact exceed) SW and CBM fans in their passion.  On the other hand, Barbie Super Fans are indeed out there, and if they turn up to this film in droves...

 

...

 

Well, find out soon enough, one way or the other.  Probably starting in a few hours.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Porthos

[martin]

MI7 flop incoming?

Indi have same fate as the flash?

Interesting summer box office.