The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/26/2023 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Insidious 5	T-10	Jax	5	20	0	13	2,037	0.64%
		Phx	6	18	5	47	2,820	1.67%
		Ral	7	24	0	24	2,829	0.85%
	Total		18	62	5	84	7,686	1.09%
Joy Ride	T-10	Jax	5	17	0	4	1,591	0.25%
		Phx	5	17	2	16	1,484	1.08%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	2,099	0.33%
	Total		17	58	2	27	5,174	0.52%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-5	Jax	3	3	0	1	297	0.34%
		Phx	1	1	1	1	110	0.91%
	Total		4	4	1	2	407	0.49%
	T-9	Jax	5	6	2	7	562	1.25%
		Phx	6	6	1	14	747	1.87%
		Ral	6	6	1	6	506	1.19%
	Total		17	18	4	27	1,815	1.49%
Sound of Freedom	T-7	Jax	5	21	21	448	1,622	27.62%
		Phx	6	38	34	545	2,889	18.86%
		Ral	6	19	50	461	2,039	22.61%
	Total		17	78	105	1,454	6,550	22.20%

 

Sound of Freedom T-7 comps

 - Jesus Revolution EA - 1.332x (3.14m)

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - 1.139x (3.76m)

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-10 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .389x (778k)

 - 80 for Brady - .789x (592k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.75x (875k)

 - Violent Night - .903x (994k)

 

Size adjusted average - 811k

 

Insidious 5 T-10 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .497x (1.49m)

 - Scream VI - .115x (655k)

 - Nope - .198x (1.27m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Halloween Ends - .239x (1.29m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Insidious 5	T-9	Jax	5	20	1	14	2,037	0.69%
		Phx	6	18	8	55	2,820	1.95%
		Ral	7	24	3	27	2,829	0.95%
	Total		18	62	12	96	7,686	1.25%
Joy Ride	T-9	Jax	5	17	0	4	1,591	0.25%
		Phx	5	17	3	19	1,484	1.28%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	2,099	0.33%
	Total		17	58	3	30	5,174	0.58%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	3	0	1	297	0.34%
		Phx	1	1	0	1	110	0.91%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	88	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	2	495	0.40%
	T-8	Jax	5	6	0	7	562	1.25%
		Phx	6	6	0	14	747	1.87%
		Ral	7	7	3	9	556	1.62%
	Total		18	19	3	30	1,865	1.61%
Sound of Freedom	T-6	Jax	5	25	47	495	1,882	26.30%
		Phx	6	45	47	592	4,159	14.23%
		Ral	7	23	23	484	2,303	21.02%
	Total		18	93	117	1,571	8,344	18.83%

 

Sound of Freedom T-6 comps

 - Jesus Revolution EA - 1.405x (3.32m)

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - 1.202x (3.97m)

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 

I'm not sure if these are counted as previews... some theaters are starting shows at 11am.  If these keep rising, we could see it get up to 4.5-5m for Monday

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-9 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .422x (844k)

 - 80 for Brady - .681x (511k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.067x (1.03m)

 - Violent Night - .861x (947k)

 

Size adjusted average - 836k

 

Insidious 5 T-9 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .542x (1.63m)

 - Scream VI - .128x (729k)

 - Nope - .204x (1.3m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Halloween Ends - .249x (1.34m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.46m

[emoviefan]

15 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

Something I do want to bring up for both Indy and Mission: Impossible (even Oppenheimer if M37's 35-45 OW comes into fruition) is that these movies are reliant on old white guys who don't go to the movies anymore. Almost every big movie that comes out skews towards the 18-34 crowd, arthouse fare aimed at youngsters have typically been the only notable hits (Asteroid City, Past Lives), Caucasian viewer percentages have gotten smaller and smaller and smaller. A big chunk of old Gen Xers and boomers who likely went to the movies more frequently have stuck with their 4K TVs and soundbars and don't want to deal with people out there. I know from experience from my own boomer parents, who I've taken to see movies with less and less. When my mom said we're gonna skip our annual Christmas tradition of going to the theater to see a movie and instead watch something at home, that was a big sign things were changing.

 

And obviously I don't think Indiana Jones or Oppenheimer or whatever would be massive, gigantic hits if old white guys were active at the movies, but that is something to ponder over for the rest of the year and beyond. Will certainly make the next few years of box office a lot more interesting. And I'm sure producers for stuff like James Bond or Superman or Star Wars are trying to figure out how to make these dinosaurs "hip" with today's kids.

Well some day they are going to be wondering why they are not getting those movies that appeal to them anymore because you sat on your bu at home so the studios stopped making them and now you are getting the watered down streaming versions of them. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/26/2023 at 9:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-15	Jax	6	69	3	141	10,964	1.29%
		Phx	6	58	6	105	11,155	0.94%
		Ral	8	54	7	145	8,344	1.74%
	Total		20	181	16	391	30,463	1.28%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-13	Jax	3	3	2	35	418	8.37%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	15	111	13.51%
	Total		6	6	2	52	892	5.83%
	T-14	Jax	5	7	4	115	1,407	8.17%
		Phx	1	1	3	38	410	9.27%
		Ral	2	2	1	66	412	16.02%
	Total		8	10	8	219	2,229	9.83%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-15 comps

 - JWD Total - .266x (4.78m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.75x (5.95m)

 - Black Widow - .37x (4.88m)

 - Avatar 2 - .329x (5.6m)

 - F9 - 1.22x (8.69m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.01x (9.01m)

 - Top Gun Total - .273x (5.27m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-14	Jax	6	69	12	153	10,964	1.40%
		Phx	6	58	6	111	11,155	1.00%
		Ral	8	54	-5	140	8,344	1.68%
	Total		20	181	13	404	30,463	1.33%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-12	Jax	3	3	0	35	418	8.37%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	0	15	111	13.51%
	Total		6	6	0	52	892	5.83%
	T-13	Jax	5	7	9	124	1,407	8.81%
		Phx	1	1	6	44	410	10.73%
		Ral	2	2	0	66	412	16.02%
	Total		8	10	15	234	2,229	10.50%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-14 comps

 - F9 - 1.21x (8.59m)

 - John Wick 4 - .96x (8.52m)

 - Top Gun (Total) - .267x (5.15m)

 - Dune - 1.64x (8.38m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 2.02x (9.11m)

 - NTTD (Total) - 1.46x (9.21m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.86m

 

Changing up some of my comps.  Got rid of the CBMs (Black Widow/Shazam 2) and the more GA friendly (JWD/Avatar 2).   Expecting these comps to drop some still and looking for something in the 7.5-8m range for now. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/26/2023 at 9:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-24	Jax	5	41	19	111	5,024	2.21%
		Phx	6	29	25	193	4,876	3.96%
		Ral	8	45	7	222	5,631	3.94%
	Total		19	115	51	526	15,531	3.39%
Barbie (EA)	T-23	Jax	2	3	0	99	319	31.03%
		Phx	1	1	0	141	208	67.79%
		Ral	2	2	0	123	190	64.74%
	Total		5	6	0	363	717	50.63%
Oppenheimer	T-24	Jax	6	23	5	190	4,698	4.04%
		Phx	6	26	8	212	4,969	4.27%
		Ral	8	22	5	223	2,837	7.86%
	Total		20	71	18	625	12,504	5.00%

 

Oppenheimer T-24 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .322x (5.8m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .224x (3.91m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .081x (2.9m)

 - Nope - 3.019x (19.32m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.555x

 - Barbie (Total) - .703x

 

Not many good comps this far out

 

Barbie (Total) T-24 comps

 - Nope - 4.295x (27.49m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.422x

 - JWD (Total) - .458x (8.25m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-23	Jax	5	41	10	121	5,024	2.41%
		Phx	6	29	27	220	4,876	4.51%
		Ral	8	45	38	260	5,631	4.62%
	Total		19	115	75	601	15,531	3.87%
Barbie (EA)	T-22	Jax	2	3	7	106	319	33.23%
		Phx	1	1	0	141	208	67.79%
		Ral	2	2	2	125	190	65.79%
	Total		5	6	9	372	717	51.88%
Oppenheimer	T-23	Jax	6	23	25	215	4,698	4.58%
		Phx	6	26	17	229	4,969	4.61%
		Ral	8	22	9	232	2,837	8.18%
	Total		20	71	51	676	12,504	5.41%

 

Oppenheimer T-23 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .337x (6.06m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .234x (4.09m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .085x (3.05m)

 - Nope - 3.101x (19.85m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.55x

 - Barbie (Total) - .695x

 

Not many good comps this far out

 

Barbie (Total) T-23 comps

 - Nope - 4.463x (28.57m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.439x

 - JWD (Total) - .485x (8.73m)

[rehpyc]

22 hours ago, rehpyc said:

 

Indy T-4

NTTD: 6.85M

GA: 9.49M

JWD: 7.17M

JW4: 9.68M

Flash: 7.96M

TLM: 8.59M

 

The Flash is the only one that has continued a trend up, with a trajectory similar to JW4, GA, and TLM around 8.25-8.5M.

Indy T-3

NTTD: 6.71M

GA: 9.22M

JWD: 7.02M

JW4: 9.23M

Flash: 7.88M

TLM: 8.36M

FX: 9.77M

 

NTTD & JWD are flattening out, Flash has been mostly flat just under 8M, with the rest trending down. The former 2 had pretty poor T-1 to T-0 changes between slower leading sales and lesser walk-ups vs. the rest of the comps. If I had to put a number on things right now, 8M +/- .5.

[JustWatching]

A little anecdata from my local Midwest Cinemark (all standard screens):

 

Indy: 81 tix sold for the weekend, including previews, so far. 33 for Thursday, 27/2/19 for FSS. That’s actually better than I expected. Heavily weighted toward matinee showings, which makes sense if we are expecting an older crowd.

 

Ruby: Poor Ruby. A whopping five, count ‘em, five tix sold so far. One for Thursday and four for Friday. If it breaks any records it looks like they will be all the wrong ones.

Edited June 27, 2023 by JustWatching

[JWR]

11 minutes ago, JustWatching said:

Ruby: Poor Ruby. A whopping five, count ‘em, five tix sold so far. One for Thursday and four for Friday. If it breaks any records it looks like they will be all the wrong ones.

 

Worse than Spirit Untamed?

[DAJK]

I think it’s kind of silly to say old white guys don’t go to movies anymore when Top Gun Maverick literally just made 720M domestic.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think it’s kind of silly to say old white guys don’t go to movies anymore when Top Gun Maverick literally just made 720M domestic.

Seriously.  Some were really hoping lightning would strike twice in terms of a crazy overperformance for anything this summer.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think it’s kind of silly to say old white guys don’t go to movies anymore when Top Gun Maverick literally just made 720M domestic.

 

Avatar Way of the Water also had its largest demo as Caucasian 25+ males...although it was a little more balanced than TGM.  

[M37]

2 hours ago, vale9001 said:

what is the "usual film/demo draw" for Barbie?. Why are you still treating it like it's twilight or fault of our stars? 💀. I'm reading everywhere people saying "i'm buying tickets for my kids". It's gonna be huge on families, not only for these 25-35 old year gays or millennial women. Do you think this big presale it's because of this very specific film twitter target?. 

 

if this movie it's not gonna get 100M it's only because the industry decided to push on premium screens  action movies sequels with less demand. And it's really unexpected btw 🙄

Typo, meant to read “unusual”, in that I don’t think there’s any doubt Barbie will skew towards women. While I do agree there will be some family appeal, doubtful it’s going to be on TLM level. So there really is no comp to point to and say here’s how to extrapolate from Point A to point B

 

I haven’t made any comparisons to those films, but there probably are some similarities in terms of how advance ticket sell (not necessarily IM/legs after)

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think it’s kind of silly to say old white guys don’t go to movies anymore when Top Gun Maverick literally just made 720M domestic.

Kobe had 60 points in his last game despite a terrible final season.

 

It isn't impossible. But we have more data on demographics than ever, and for other similar films like NTTD and countless others, they show exactly what Eric is saying. It isn't impossible. I actually think Oppenheimer is going to be major. But they can't be counted on.

[Eric is Quiet]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think it’s kind of silly to say old white guys don’t go to movies anymore when Top Gun Maverick literally just made 720M domestic.

I mean it and Elvis are the only two big examples post-pandemic? Even NTTD arguably underperformed here in North America. Just because one or two movies overperformed doesn't mean much IMO. They're just exceptions to the rule, considering almost every other big movie has largely delivered with the 18-34 crowd in particular.

[TwoMisfits]

So, b/c it's bothered me, and we've talked about inherent possible bias in the sampling of the current PostTrak demo data...well, I went to Wiki...

 

"PostTrak focuses on wide releases and polls audiences across 20 markets in the United States and Canada,"

 

So, knowing it's just 20 geographic markets across the 2 countries, does anyone know which exact 20 they are, b/c then we could research age and diversity movement into and out of the markets to know if they still represent the same overall skew they had preCovid vs now after a lot of movement into and out of cities during Covid...and we could generalize the rough "sampling error" it might have vs the pre-Covid movies to see if it is true loss or sampling loss for certain demos...

 

 

[WorkingonaName]

NTDD didn't underperform, $800M with covid is impressive, would have done a billio in normal times. 

[filmlover]

Tbh I never understood where the "Indiana Jones will be this year's Maverick" predictions were coming from when it always seemed to have even less going for it than the previous one did when it came out (Spielberg not back in the director's chair, no truly exciting casting decisions that would've enticed younger demos in major numbers). Honestly, that movie seemed to use up whatever nostalgia card there was for this particular IP, especially when Ford was already at an advanced age for an action star back then and is obviously even more so now. A run similar to Solo always seemed to be in the cards for this IMO though who knows if it'll even approach those numbers now.

Edited June 27, 2023 by filmlover

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 hours ago, Redolent said:

People are making a mistake thinking this is a movie for families. It’s not. There has been enough feedback from the April test screenings (from both people who loved the movie, and those who didn’t) and they all say that this will not play well to kids. The content is too mature for anyone under 14 to really be engaged. WOM / Cinemascore will make this clear enough. 

I was there. And this is beyond wrong lmao

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Insidious 5	T-9	Jax	5	20	1	14	2,037	0.69%
		Phx	6	18	8	55	2,820	1.95%
		Ral	7	24	3	27	2,829	0.95%
	Total		18	62	12	96	7,686	1.25%
Joy Ride	T-9	Jax	5	17	0	4	1,591	0.25%
		Phx	5	17	3	19	1,484	1.28%
		Ral	7	24	0	7	2,099	0.33%
	Total		17	58	3	30	5,174	0.58%
Joy Ride (EA)	T-4	Jax	3	3	0	1	297	0.34%
		Phx	1	1	0	1	110	0.91%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	88	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	2	495	0.40%
	T-8	Jax	5	6	0	7	562	1.25%
		Phx	6	6	0	14	747	1.87%
		Ral	7	7	3	9	556	1.62%
	Total		18	19	3	30	1,865	1.61%
Sound of Freedom	T-6	Jax	5	25	47	495	1,882	26.30%
		Phx	6	45	47	592	4,159	14.23%
		Ral	7	23	23	484	2,303	21.02%
	Total		18	93	117	1,571	8,344	18.83%

 

Sound of Freedom T-6 comps

 - Jesus Revolution EA - 1.405x (3.32m)

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - 1.202x (3.97m)

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 

I'm not sure if these are counted as previews... some theaters are starting shows at 11am.  If these keep rising, we could see it get up to 4.5-5m for Monday

 

Joy Ride (Total) T-9 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .422x (844k)

 - 80 for Brady - .681x (511k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.067x (1.03m)

 - Violent Night - .861x (947k)

 

Size adjusted average - 836k

 

Insidious 5 T-9 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .542x (1.63m)

 - Scream VI - .128x (729k)

 - Nope - .204x (1.3m)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Halloween Ends - .249x (1.34m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.46m

Is it just me or are Insidious numbers not great?

[DAJK]

16 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

I mean it and Elvis are the only two big examples post-pandemic? Even NTTD arguably underperformed here in North America. Just because one or two movies overperformed doesn't mean much IMO. They're just exceptions to the rule, considering almost every other big movie has largely delivered with the 18-34 crowd in particular.

To be fair, I think that has more to do with output than anything. Elvis and TGM were two of the only “you have to see this in a theater” experiences directed at old people. Things like Ticket to Paradise, for example, are part of the “comedies on streaming” trap (even though that movie did okay for itself) and would say something more about comedies than demographic trends. 

Studios are simply making more and more “4 quadrant tentpoles” for theaters, because that’s what will be the billion dollar movies. And I don’t think old people, male or female, really care as much about Marvel/Dc Etc.

[Cmasterclay]

The only "word" we've gotten on Barbie test screenings is from a deranged guy who literally makes up lies about any movie with a woman billed above third. Anyway that's off-topic but since it was brought up in regards to Barbie's performance with families...