The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Sales by Format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Morbius (Thu)	PLF	27	655	655	6,344	10.32%	$14.14	$9,262.03
		Standard	24	287	287	3,124	9.19%	$11.35	$3,256.40
	Morbius (Thu) Total		51	942	942	9,468	9.95%	$13.29	$12,518.43

 

Sales by Matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New Sls	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Morbius (Thu)	N	40	815	815	7,132	11.43%	$13.67	$11,142.82
		Y	11	127	127	2,336	5.44%	$10.83	$1,375.61
	Morbius (Thu) Total		51	942	942	9,468	9.95%	$13.29	$12,518.43

 

Taking a look at Santikos today.  I've only tracked Spider-man and Batman so far, but I figured it wouldn't hurt to have a smaller comp added to the portfolio. 

 

T-3 comps

Movie	Shows	Sold	Cap	Mult	Comp
Morbius	51	942	9,468
Spider-man	142	17,123	22,311	0.055	2,750,686
Batman	93	4,618	15,615	0.204	3,590,126

[BruiseCruise]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/04/04/robert-eggerss-historical-visions-go-mainstream/amp

 

90 mil production budget

$1 marketing budget

 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, cooldude97 said:

any guesses to why?

 

3 hours ago, KnucklesXXR said:

Because social media reactions are coming out that it’s dog shit.

 

3 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Awful day for Morbius. Pretty much the opposite of Venom's trend.

 

Pretty much those reasons, @cooldude97.

 

I would add that there was always a level of background skepticism over this film, and its shifting dates didn't help.  And while we haven't had a full fledged social media embargo lift, the whispering from folks who don't give a damn about breaking embargo is the exact opposite of Let There Be Carnage's where there was lots of excited buzzing.

 

That there was a sense of this film getting dumped just made it all the tougher.

 

Mind there is the slightest of fig-leafs in that yesterday was a massive day of attention grabbing between March Madness and the insanity of the Oscars.  But I think that only goes so far.  Morbius has just been sitting there for days now and every indication out there so far is it's gonna land with a wet thud.

 

Still time for it to turn around, but the signs so far ain't great.  Nothing really else in the data to suggest otherwise.

[Old Spice]

I was going to update Morbius in Salt Lake City, but right now it's crickets at the Cinemark Sugarhouse. 21/442 for preview night. Two tickets sold since my last update, 19 over the past two weeks. The expectations bar is set so low now that even horrible reviews probably won't hurt this, and if they're the 'so bad it's good' kind, they might even help.

 

I'm more curious about screen counts for this weekend. I'm guessing Dune and Belfast will return, but does Coda get a wide release? And what about King Richard? Normally you'd expect a Best Actor win to generate some traction, but... 🤨

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

And what about King Richard? Normally you'd expect a Best Actor win to generate some traction, but... 🤨

 

I think they can make more money by re-releasing Ali instead.

[EmpireCity]

The biggest question to me is does Morbius draw in the walk-up horror crowd.  If it doesn't, it is absolutely going to disappoint given the reviews are likely bad across the board.  

[el sid]

Morbius counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, March 31:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 356 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 304 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 56 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 71 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 301 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 362 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.454.

 

Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday): TSS had 1.385 sold tickets (but poor jumps over the next days),

Uncharted had 868 (and quite good jumps over the next days)

and SC had 2.561 (also decent jumps) sold tickets.
 

Morbius counted today at 11am EST for Friday, April 1:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 424 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 198 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 34 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 39 (10 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 211 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 257 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.163.

 

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): TSS had 940 sold tickets,

The Batman had 4.894,

Uncharted had 715

and Eternals had on Tuesday = 1 day later 3.138 sold tickets.

Overall the Thursday presales in my theaters are decent so far but the Friday numbers could be higher. All depends on the jumps in the next days and I notice that there's not much confidence here. But let's see, maybe the reviews and fan reception are better than expected.

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The biggest question to me is does Morbius draw in the walk-up horror crowd.  If it doesn't, it is absolutely going to disappoint given the reviews are likely bad across the board.  

 

"Playing like a horror-ish/thriller film" is pretty much the lone wild card left to Morbius, IMO, and one I've been thinking about in the back of my head.  But I don't know if it's being sold in that genre.  Seems to still be dipping in the CBM fan waters and not horror/thriller circles.  Haven't seen @Krissykins really comment on this film all that much, for instance.  At least from what I remember.

 

Perhaps the worst thing that could happen is if both horror/thriller fans and CBM fans largely turn up their nose to Morbius, leaving the Venn Diagram of folks who are both horror and CBM fans to be inclined to check it out.

 

Actually kinda fascinated to see just how it plays out when all is said and done.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Porthos

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

"Playing like a horror-ish/thriller film" is pretty much the lone wild card left to Morbius, IMO, and one I've been thinking about in the back of my head.  But I don't know if it's being sold in that genre.  Seems to still be dipping in the CBM fan waters and not horror/thriller circles.  Haven't seen @Krissykins really comment on this film all that much, for instance.  At least from what I remember.

 

Perhaps the worst thing that could happen is if both horror/thriller fans and CBM fans largely turn up their nose to Morbius, leaving the Venn Diagram of folks who are both horror and CBM fans to be inclined to check it out.

 

Actually kinda fascinated to see just how it plays out when all is said and done.

 

At first I thought it was a great move to put this in April, now I go back to thinking that no matter how great Spider-Man and Uncharted did for them in Q1, this movie would have been able to ride the wave and open bigger in late January when there was no content and the weather was shit.  

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

At first I thought it was a great move to put this in April, now I go back to thinking that no matter how great Spider-Man and Uncharted did for them in Q1, this movie would have been able to ride the wave and open bigger in late January when there was no content and the weather was shit.  

 

That is what I said at the move...January was the way more open glide path for this movie.

 

I'm also puzzled by Sony's lack of "cheap ticket" promotion (aka TMobile deal) for this movie that they gave for Venom 2, Spidey, and Uncharted.  I can't decide if they are just writing it off b/c it's bad and they truly don't care how it performs...

 

I think this is the type of movie that would benefit a lot by giving people "more incentive" to see.

 

If I had cheap tickets, I'd probably be buying 3 full price and 3 cheap tickets...as it is, the youngest wants Sonic, and I already know that has cheap tickets, so I'll be buying 6 there, knowing both movies probably suck...but at least I can save about $30 OOP seeing one over the other (and that buys the popcorn)...

 

Edit to Add:  Oops, in the buzz thread - okay, to put this with some buzz, my Cinemarks are also stupidly increasing the ticket price for Morbius by $1.  This is not the movie to do that for and convince people to show up (that might be the nail in my coffin)...

Edited March 28, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[DAJK]

I’ve literally cut my prediction for Morbius in half in the last 2 weeks. From thinking it could reach 50M to now thinking it might struggle to reach mid-20s.

[Maggie]

Just now, DAJK said:

I’ve literally cut my prediction for Morbius in half in the last 2 weeks. From thinking it could reach 50M to now thinking it might struggle to reach mid-20s.

That bad huh? I was gonna ask the experts here if it could miss 40M, but mid 20s would be a catastrophe

[Manny G]

47 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’ve literally cut my prediction for Morbius in half in the last 2 weeks. From thinking it could reach 50M to now thinking it might struggle to reach mid-20s.

20M would be a disaster, especially perception wise. That can’t possibly happen 

[Brainbug]

52 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’ve literally cut my prediction for Morbius in half in the last 2 weeks. From thinking it could reach 50M to now thinking it might struggle to reach mid-20s.

 

That would mean morbid numbers.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I’ve literally cut my prediction for Morbius in half in the last 2 weeks. From thinking it could reach 50M to now thinking it might struggle to reach mid-20s.

 

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

That bad huh? I was gonna ask the experts here if it could miss 40M, but mid 20s would be a catastrophe

 

30 minutes ago, Manny G said:

20M would be a disaster, especially perception wise. That can’t possibly happen 

 

To keep this vaguely on topic, falling behind The Suicide Squad's daily pace locally ain't exactly a great omen for it's OW.  Has a huge head start on it, yes.  But as omens go, I've seen better.

 

And just in case it is a blip in my local market, for T-4 in Philly Morbius outsold TSS by one ticket (96 vs 95).  To be fair, katniss had it outselling TSS (140 vs 104), but even there it wasn't a lot more.

 

All of that being said, as I said, it does have a very large head start on The Suicide Squad in all of our markets.  FWIW, our current TSS comps are in the 7.3m to 7.5m range (I had to guess at Eric's number using that linked post) — but that'll come down quick unless it picks the pace back up as it has to keep outselling TSS by roughly 80% to reach that number. 

 

Anyway, I wouldn't jump on the 20m-29m train yet.  But the data is the data.  What y'all end up doing with it is up to y'alls.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Porthos

[YM!]

Yeah I was thinking $60m possibility at first but the momentum shifting downwards these past few days, I think Morbius could go as low as TSS.

[Joyous Legion]

I think the et, sc, and V2 comps look headed for 4.5ish, and it should do at least x7 or so. I can get to Birds of Prey nums but not all the way down to TSS.

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

"Playing like a horror-ish/thriller film" is pretty much the lone wild card left to Morbius, IMO, and one I've been thinking about in the back of my head.  But I don't know if it's being sold in that genre.  Seems to still be dipping in the CBM fan waters and not horror/thriller circles.  Haven't seen @Krissykins really comment on this film all that much, for instance.  At least from what I remember.

 

Perhaps the worst thing that could happen is if both horror/thriller fans and CBM fans largely turn up their nose to Morbius, leaving the Venn Diagram of folks who are both horror and CBM fans to be inclined to check it out.

 

Actually kinda fascinated to see just how it plays out when all is said and done.

It’s certainly getting some coverage on the horror websites, Bloody-Disgusting etc. But they haven’t played up the horror elements enough in advertising, apart from that great Italian 3D billboard. They’ve focused more on “studio that brought you No Way Home and Venom”. 
 

I’m actually going to see it on Thursday. I think if they played up the body horror aspect more, the horror crowd would be more intrigued. But then of course they risk putting off general audiences. It’s a tricky one. 

[cookie]

Not able to provide any comps and being an international market it's obviously different from the U.S, but Morbius opens here in two days and sales are turgid across the board. My closest multiplex has a 7 P.M screening of Batman on Wednesday outselling a 6 P.M screening of Morbius, and it's not looking good for the rest of the week either. Between this and everything I've already heard about it, I think Sony's just trying to get it over with and hope it doesn't completely bellyflop, and with a relatively low budget it should be safe. But yeah, not looking good.

[filmlover]

Morbius probably needed some sort of positive buzz or intriguing casting to actually break out. But I don't think anyone's expecting it to get good reviews ever since it was announced. On the bright side, the less exposure for Jared Leto the better.