The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 5/21/2022 at 1:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	271	30967	37309	6342	17.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

399

 

T-6 Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	117.40		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	53.94%		25.36m
BW	155.82		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		9196	0.00%		21.54m
DSMoM	48.55		506	13063		0/353	29617/42680	30.61%		21117	30.03%		17.48m
NWH	32.97		559	19233		1/325	19887/39120	49.16%		28183	22.50%		16.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       1843/2477   [74.40% sold] [+95 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    4499/34832 [12.92% sold] [+304 tickets]
    
Regal:       742/10285  [7.21% sold]
Matinee:    297/4385  [6.77% | 4.68% of all tickets sold]

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	271	30655	37309	6654	17.83%

 

Total Showings Uncapped Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	312

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	117.71		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	56.60%		25.42m
BW	154.03		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		9196	0.00%		21.29m
DSMoM	49.26		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	31.51%		17.73m
NWH	33.69		515	19748		1/325	19372/39120	50.48%		28183	23.61%		16.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       1898/2477 [76.62% sold] [+55 tickets]
Thursday Sales:    4756/34832 [13.65% sold] [+257 tickets]
    
Regal:      808/10285  [7.86% sold]
Matinee:    325/4385  [7.41% | 4.88% of all tickets sold]

Edited May 22, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Porthos tracked a lot less data back then than now. I think for 20M now it will need something like 12K tix. 

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

He can compare only with similar theaters. I hope he does add those comps. Of course T-19 sales were awful back then. It sold under 1K tickets back then. 

 

on 20m I agree. Bats sold like 11.5K for 17.5m for just thursday. So JW3 needs probably 12-13K to hit 20m.  

 

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah at T-19 JW:FK was only at sale for 4 days so wont say it was awful. For first 4 days of sales in comparable theaters, JW: D was 83% of total sales. If that ratio maintained, JW: D has ~1625 seats sold in those at T-20. 

 

I will probably compare the two at T-10. JW:FK was 1656, JW: Dominion has 10 days till then and may be will be around 2.25-2.5k ish. t

 

But Sacramento is doing better for previews than it was doing in 2018 I believe considering our most pre CoVID comps overperform by like 10-15% iirc.

 

Already decided to do an unofficial comp of both JW:D and TLK (KotM doesn't have enough data to make it worthwhile).  But I do stress that there are a lot of problems with using my old comps.

 

1] The biggie, as Jat noted, is that for whatever reasons, Sacto is now getting a larger share of the DOM market than it was in 2018-2019, even when I adjust for tracking the same theaters that I did then (more on that in a bit). 

 

Now ticket price inflation is probably starting to eat into that, but that might just mean that instead of being 16-22 percent off, it's now maybe 10 to 15 percent off.  I really haven't checked all that much on similar movies though, as it's not just a market share discrepancy.

 

2] Combining a few issues into one point: Several theaters shifted to reserved seating between now and then, which is bad enough, but I'm now also tracking DBOX showings.  To add to that one theater closed and a new version of it popped up down the road.  Which wouldn't be that big of a deal, except I now have more than enough data to see that the new theater is doing much better than the old one.  To make things worse, that theater was once a partially reserved seating theater which makes figuring out which screens to count and which not all the more of a headache when I go deep into my tracks like I am for FK and TLK.

 

All of this means that I am extremely reluctant to even glance at old comps from before 2021.  As far as I am concerned, they might as well not exist.

 

That being said, I know that folks here crave info, even if it is compromised info, so I'll provide them.  Just sayin', once again, they ain't up to my exacting standards for myriad reasons. 

[charlie Jatinder]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.8048x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 19 [24.85m adj]
JW3 = 1.02317x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 19 [21.18m adj]

Perfect. Thanks. Most important comps IMO other than F9 in final 7 days.

[charlie Jatinder]

37 minutes ago, Porthos said:

1] The biggie, as Jat noted, is that for whatever reasons, Sacto is now getting a larger share of the DOM market than it was in 2018-2019, even when I adjust for tracking the same theaters that I did then (more on that in a bit). 

I don't know if that was a joke but I think you mentioned Sacramento isn't a late night town so may be having early THU previews is now playing better for the town. Other reason is simply pre-sales becoming more and more common which mean you are getting some of audience which would have walked in/booked just before show are now booking in advance. This wouldn't be an issue if you were tracking final sales, but since you are taking sales before the shows start in evening, you are missing the walkins during that time.

May be sales after shows started were more back then than now.

[THUNDER BIRD]

Such a mysterious movie, Jurassic World Dominion. It's like a forest setting, where you are entering a path surrounded by bushes from both side, just about the time sun is going down, you have no idea what is in the bushes and you are slowly slowly walking in the path and light ia fading slowly too, bushes are getting darker and visibility of path is also going down due to the darkness.

.

.

.

.

And then there is Box Office Pro, 165-205 prediction which then increased to 175-215 casually. 

 

Does anyone know what kind of methodology do they use

[M37]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I went back to tracking thread around the time last JW movie opened and it was toxic with many predicting doom(opening sub 100m !!!). So there is a trend of it doing much better than what data showed at that time. of course the data we had back then was limited. Only @Porthos did something similar to what he still does today. I think it sold just 6228 tickets at Sacremento and that led to 15.3 million previews. I am sure this will do lot more but release is also lot bigger than last movie. 

 

Beyond that we had sample fandango data scraped. There also it was doing meh until final day. of course we dont have level of data we have today with full alpha presales. 

 

Plus JW3 is opening at 4PM vs 7PM of JW2. So Previews will be bigger share of OW. We will know once we look at Friday PS data. Hopefully @ZackM can look at friday data once TG2 opens next week. TG2 friday PS already at par or tad ahead of thursday(not including early shows on tuesday/wednesday). Let us hope JW3 is also somewhere there. 

 

I think Shawn's definite interest metrics across ages is also promising. This will play to families better than Top Gun 2 for sure. Or even tad better than recent horror flick DS2 🙂

 

Let us hope for JW3 to hit Brainbug's aspirations. it would be good for some studio other than Disney to have that level of breakout. Paramount is going to have one next weekend and Universal having one 2 weeks later bodes well for overall theatrical health. 

Yeah, the sub-$100 chatter was a definite overreaction, especially in the wake of Solo's weakness and Incredibles 2 explosion (freakout starts about here), but general tea leaves consensus in the week of release was around $120M, with @Shawn lowering their weekend forecast to $129 ($115-$140)

... yet and Lost Kingdom still got to $148M OW, even with meh audience reaction, nearly identical Thur multipliers as Incredibles 2

 

Data for Fandango sales (via AKValley), for the week of release (posted by @TalismanRing in old tracking thread). One of these is just not like the others

Fandango	Monday	Tues	Wed
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
SW: Solo	15,855	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266

 

 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

53 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, the sub-$100 chatter was a definite overreaction, especially in the wake of Solo's weakness and Incredibles 2 explosion (freakout starts about here), but general tea leaves consensus in the week of release was around $120M, with @Shawn lowering their weekend forecast to $129 ($115-$140)

... yet and Lost Kingdom still got to $148M OW, even with meh audience reaction, nearly identical Thur multipliers as Incredibles 2

 

Data for Fandango sales (via AKValley), for the week of release (posted by @TalismanRing in old tracking thread). One of these is just not like the others

Fandango	Monday	Tues	Wed
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
SW: Solo	15,855	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266

 

 

 

Ok so it was actually selling less tickets than Solo 😬😬

 

Man this franchise is not at all pre sales friendly, at all, i think even Fast & Furious has more fans.

 

Many were predicting equal to Deadpool 2, it did that, just in FSS.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/21/2022 at 10:46 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bob's Burgers	T-5	Jax	6	15	12	67	1,542	4.35%
		Phx	6	17	5	85	2,342	3.63%
		Ral	7	16	8	54	1,317	4.10%
	Total		19	48	25	206	5,201	3.96%
JW3 Dominion	T-19	Jax	7	107	16	562	15,994	3.51%
		Phx	6	94	24	550	16,370	3.36%
		Ral	8	67	19	582	7,529	7.73%
	Total		21	268	59	1,694	39,893	4.25%
JW3+JP	T-19	Jax	4	4	3	114	745	15.30%
		Phx	5	5	2	283	564	50.18%
		Ral	6	6	4	104	622	16.72%
	Total		15	15	9	501	1,931	25.95%
Top Gun 2	T-5	Jax	7	110	87	1,172	18,482	6.34%
		Phx	7	87	101	882	14,911	5.92%
		Ral	8	80	72	1,034	9,392	11.01%
	Total		22	277	260	3,088	42,785	7.22%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-3	Jax	5	8	38	769	1,166	65.95%
		Phx	1	1	1	175	208	84.13%
		Ral	2	2	5	301	412	73.06%
	Total		8	11	44	1,245	1,786	69.71%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	2	9	105	245	42.86%
		Phx	2	2	1	93	434	21.43%
		Ral	1	1	0	38	118	32.20%
	Total		5	5	10	236	797	29.61%
Watcher	T-12	Jax	3	4	1	1	203	0.49%
		Phx	3	4	2	2	483	0.41%
		Ral	2	3	1	1	207	0.48%
	Total		8	11	4	4	893	0.45%

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-5 comps

 - Black Widow - .97x (12.77m)

 - F9 - 2.71x (19.23m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - missed

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - 2.15x (18.88m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .677x (11.91m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - missed

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .705x (15.23m)

 

Bob's Burgers T-5 comps

 - JJK0 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Free Guy - .87x (1.9m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.15x (3.11m) 

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .442x (3.135m)

 - Ghostbusters - .71x (2.95m)

 - NTTD - .62x (3.23m)

 - Dune - .616x (3.14m)

 

JW3 T-19 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.112x (14.72m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bob's Burgers	T-4	Jax	6	15	1	68	1,542	4.41%
		Phx	6	18	14	99	2,448	4.04%
		Ral	7	16	2	56	1,317	4.25%
	Total		19	49	17	223	5,307	4.20%
JW3 Dominion	T-18	Jax	7	107	26	588	15,994	3.68%
		Phx	6	94	19	569	16,370	3.48%
		Ral	8	67	19	601	7,529	7.98%
	Total		21	268	64	1,758	39,893	4.41%
JW3+JP	T-18	Jax	4	4	5	119	745	15.97%
		Phx	5	5	0	283	564	50.18%
		Ral	6	6	6	110	622	17.68%
	Total		15	15	11	512	1,931	26.51%
Top Gun 2	T-4	Jax	7	110	142	1,314	18,482	7.11%
		Phx	7	87	175	1,057	14,911	7.09%
		Ral	8	80	71	1,105	9,392	11.77%
	Total		22	277	388	3,476	42,785	8.12%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	8	33	802	1,166	68.78%
		Phx	1	1	3	178	208	85.58%
		Ral	2	2	8	309	412	75.00%
	Total		8	11	44	1,289	1,786	72.17%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-3	Jax	2	2	33	138	245	56.33%
		Phx	2	2	7	100	434	23.04%
		Ral	1	1	0	38	118	32.20%
	Total		5	5	40	276	797	34.63%
Watcher	T-11	Jax	3	4	0	1	203	0.49%
		Phx	3	4	0	2	483	0.41%
		Ral	2	3	0	1	207	0.48%
	Total		8	11	0	4	893	0.45%

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-4 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.03x (13.54m)

 - F9 - 2.8x (19.89m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - missed

 - Ghostbusters - 4.33x (17.96m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.22x (19.57m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .721x (12.7m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - 3.5x (18.2m)

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .745x (16.1m)

 

Bob's Burgers T-4 comps

 - JJK0 - .2x (590k)

 - Ghostbusters - .278x (1.15m)

 - Free Guy - .8x (1.76m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.09x (2.95m) 

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .458x (3.25m)

 - Ghostbusters - .74x (3.06m)

 - NTTD - .64x (3.35m)

 - Dune - .64x (3.26m)

 

JW3 T-18 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.132x (14.94m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 4.43x (31.44m)

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

All of this means that I am extremely reluctant to even glance at old comps from before 2021.  As far as I am concerned, they might as well not exist.

 

That being said, I know that folks here crave info, even if it is compromised info, so I'll provide them.  Just sayin', once again, they ain't up to my exacting standards for myriad reasons. 

JW2 had shorter PS window. So I feel the comp will keep going down. I expect TLK comp also will keep going down. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

@Porthos I think there is some issue in the adjusted daily pace for Dominion against Black Widow, it should be lower than the full pace right, not higher? Comparing the totals seems to show a difference of 79 rather than 177.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

@Porthos I think there is some issue in the adjusted daily pace for Dominion against Black Widow, it should be lower than the full pace right, not higher? Comparing the totals seems to show a difference of 79 rather than 177.

 

Yeah, I didn't update one of the numbers on my too-complicated-for-my-own-good-at-times spreadsheet.  Was indeed 79 (double checked on my backups). Fixed, and thanks for the catch.

[filmlover]

I always felt a run similar to the last movie would've been a pretty solid result for Dominion considering that movie was hardly beloved. Presales haven't been all that astonishing around me either, although I did check the Cinemark at Universal Citywalk and they're unsurprisingly doing great so far (expect Minions to also post strong sales there given the studio/theme park connections).

[keysersoze123]

@charlie Jatinder

 

Top Gun 2 MTC2 Early shows(tuesday) - 27339/35151 504184.25 161 shows. 

 

Quite good. Not much room for growth. About 1.4m between the 2 big MTC and that is just with 421 shows. Definitely thinking between 3-4m just for tuesday. 

[ZackM]

 

From last night...

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Early Access Event Seat Report: T-3 days
5/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	229	260	37,570	61,829	60.76%
ATP
$23.68

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-4 days
5/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	195	196	10,439	41,245	25.31%
ATP
$13.63

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	27	8	28	24	175
Seats Added	3,827	788	4,787	3,224	20,781
Seats Sold	6,524	5,815	4,906	3,319	3,594
5/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	3,925	84,665	737,985	11.47%
ATP
$17.20

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
	Dr. Strange MoM		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	$12.7	$14.4	$12.6	$12.8	$13.7
T-6	$12.1	$13.8	$12.1	$12.2	$13.1
T-7	$11.7	$13.4	$11.7	$11.8	$12.6
T-8	$11.4	$13.0	$11.3	$11.4	$12.2
T-9	$11.3	$12.8	$11.0	$11.1	$12.1
T-10	$11.0	$12.6	$10.8	$10.9	$11.9
T-11	$10.8	$12.3	$10.6	$10.6	$11.6
T-12	$10.5	$12.0	$10.3	$10.4	$11.3
T-13	$10.3	$11.7	$10.1	$10.2	$11.1

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by ZackM
Fixed issue with daily changes

[BruiseCruise]

Odds that TG does better than The Batman FSS?

[lorddemaxus]

Most likely got nothing to do this summer, but even if I do, thinking of doing a ML-related project on the side. Thinking of making something re: predicting previews/weekend numbers for movies with data from this thread. What's the best data I could use for this? Was thinking of @keysersoze123's but idk. To be clear, don't have anything concrete yet. Just playing around with ideas for something to beef up my resume.

[El Squibbonator]

I don't know where else to put this, but I have a bit of a PSA to make. The $60 million budget mentioned for The Bob's Burgers Movie IS FROM AN UNRELIABLE SOURCE. The website it was taken from is called Filmik, and they have a history of putting out information about movies with no sources to back them up, and therefore any data from them cannot be considered reliable. They also declared that the budget of League of Super-Pets was $130 million, again without providing any sources. 

 

The takeaway is, Filmix is not reliable. They cannot be considered a good source of movie budgets. 

[cax16]

2 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

Odds that TG does better than The Batman FSS?

Would be good to see, tired of hearing people online say online comic book movies make money. 

[VanillaSkies]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@charlie Jatinder

 

Top Gun 2 MTC2 Early shows(tuesday) - 27339/35151 504184.25 161 shows. 

 

Quite good. Not much room for growth. About 1.4m between the 2 big MTC and that is just with 421 shows. Definitely thinking between 3-4m just for tuesday. 

 

I'm sure this has already been mentioned somewhere at this point, but here in Canada the IMAX early access previews are happening on Wednesday. This could combined nicely with the Investor Early Access shows on Wednesday to give a nice number for Wednesday as well. This could have 5-6 million in previews before shows even start on Thursday!

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/21/2022 at 2:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

318

2320

13.71%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

357

3250

10.98%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1599	58	25033	6.39%	15	154

 

AMCs sold	1164
Cinemarks sold	184
Regals sold	117
Harkins sold	134

 

1.58x Eternals T-19 (14.98M)

1.18x Black Widow T-19 (15.54M)

5.11x Fast 9 T-19 (36.27M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

332

2320

14.31%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

371

3250

11.42%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1670	71	25033	6.67%	15	154

 

AMCs sold	1212
Cinemarks sold	194
Regals sold	122
Harkins sold	142

 

1.58x Eternals T-18 (15.01M)

1.19x Black Widow T-18 (15.71M)

4.81x Fast 9 T-18 (34.17M)