The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

But Theo James' mustache. And hair. And everything else. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This actor was the main dude from the Detergent Divergent movies, right? I hope he's doing alright after the hot mess that saga devolved into.

[filmlover]

24 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This actor was the main dude from the Detergent Divergent movies, right? I hope he's doing alright after the hot mess that saga devolved into.

He just starred in the latest failed adaptation of The Time Traveler's Wife opposite Rose Leslie on HBO.

[Sandro Mazzola]

On 6/15/2022 at 4:58 PM, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

Is it under 60m? Because is so I won't be disagreeing 

 

 

Soz @Shawn

[M37]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

@charlie Jatinder

 

Elvis is doing well locally, but not even a "worth a Q&D check going forward" well.  Especially when I have three other films to track.

 

Anyway, including EA, Elvis is at  773/9187 (8.41%)

 

58% of Dune (2.95m)

45% of NTTD (2.81m)

32% of Shang-Chi (2.83m)

57% of Sonic 2 (3.55m) [used for late arriving sales]

 

...

 

I think the use of my previous gif stands.

 

Did you happen to log the breakdown of how many for EA, and how many of those shows?

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Did you happen to log the breakdown of how many for EA, and how many of those shows?

 

2 EA shows out of 63 showings overall; 202 seats for EA showings out of 773 sold.  There are 170 EA seats left, including wheelchair slots/companion seats.

 

[keysersoze123]

Elvis early shows

MTC1 - 8553/15246 193244.51 81 shows

MTC2 - 4218/8040 65814.75 41 shows

 

Strong with limited shows. 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Thor: Love and Thunder Marcus Theaters (T-17)

 

Showings: 870

Seats Sold: 18867/130638

 

Ignore my previous Marcus post as many showtimes were erroneously returning 0 sold. I have checked this number pretty thoroughly, so it should be accurate. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Pinacolada]

5 hours ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

 

 

Soz @Shawn

This movie still makes me sad

[Eric is Anxious]

2 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

This movie still makes me sad

Let me give you a hug

 

[EmpireCity]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

Did we ever find out for 100% sure what was up with that reported $5.2m previews for Lightyear?  I know that both Empire City and Charlie Jatinder think that there is no way that it actually counted the Wed EA showings, but I'm curious if anyone has an actual number for Wed/Thr and not a guesstimate.

 

@Shawn  Any chance you can ask around and find out what the deal is on this?  I only ask coz if the Wed/Thr total is closer to around 5.8m or so as I've seen surmised, it'll matter quite a bit for future comps involving LY.

 

(in fact, I'm leaning toward not counting LY in future comps at all if it really is a Thr only number as there is quite a bit of difference between 5.2m and 5.8m)

 

Yep, we looked at all the numbers and Disney didn't include the Wed shows in the $5.2m number.  That is 1000% confirmed.  

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Yep, we looked at all the numbers and Disney didn't include the Wed shows in the $5.2m number.  That is 1000% confirmed.  

 

Well now we just need to know what that Wed number actually is. 👍

 

Otherwise...

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	25724	31600	5876	18.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

196

 

T-18 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	167.03		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		11757	49.98%		36.08m
MoM	60.99		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	27.83%		21.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-18 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	255.56		92	2095		0/117	17035/19130	10.95%		9196	63.90%		35.32m
L&T (adj)			165	5354		0/188	20949/26303	20.36%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         552/4831  [11.43% sold]
Matinee:    258/2566  [10.05% | 4.39% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	25566	31600	6034	19.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

158

 

T-17 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	45.44		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		28183	21.41%		22.72m
Batman	164.24		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	51.32%		35.47m
MoM	61.19		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	28.57%		22.03m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-17 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	250.57		94	2189		0/117	16941/19130	11.44%		9196	65.62%		34.63m
L&T (adj)			131	5485		0/188	20818/26303	20.85%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       569/4831  [11.78% sold]
Matinee:    271/2566  [10.56% | 4.49% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/20/2022 at 12:55 AM, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	24659	25197	538	2.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

85

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	124.83		30	431		0/108	16261/16692	2.58%		9196	5.85%		5.62m
Sonic 2	87.91		36	612		0/80	11640/12252	5.00%		5847	9.20%		5.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         61/5129  [1.19% sold]
Matinee:    24/2080  [1.15% | 4.46% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yes, that is the correct total.  Was somewhat juiced by 25 tickets at one theater, but even taking that one theater out, just a strong day of sales locally.

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	24456	25018	562	2.25%

 

Total Net Seats Removed Today	179
Total Net Seats Sold Today	24

 

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	106.04		99	530		0/108	16263/16793	3.16%		9196	6.11%		4.77m
Sonic 2	86.73		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		5847	9.61%		5.42m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         44/5311  [0.83% sold]
Matinee:    22/2383  [0.92% | 3.91% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Bit of a weird day today.  One of the local dine-in theaters added a showing (39 seats) but one of the MTCs removed a late night showing (218 seats), resulting in a net loss of 179 seats in the region.

 

The bigger deal is that same MTC changed a bunch of 3D showings (which I believe were listed as 3D in error) to 2D, resulting in 28 tickets sold wiped from the books.   But I had a devil of a time verifying those lost ticket sales on the corp site in question (could pull up the showtimes on Fandango, but not the corp site) so they may pop back up tomorrow.  Or, probably more likely, they just wiped all the sales when they shifted those showings from 3D to 2D, and are just gonna see if those folks re-buy their tickets or not.  If those sales hadn't been wiped from the books, it would have been 52 tickets sold in the region.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW for Minions, if you are using non-kids film as comp, probably deduct 15-20% for kids tix, since ATP for it will be low.

[John2015]

Both "Crimes of the Future" and "Watcher" only have 17-day exclusive theatrical window, as both films will be released on VOD this week.

 

I suspect 17-day window will be the norm for most of non-blockbuster films, while very few big-budget blockbusters will actually have LONGER window than before (may be 120-day window like "Top Gun: Maverick")

Edited June 21, 2022 by John2015

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/19/2022 at 1:50 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-19 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
416	104,985	8,587	8.18%	$114,365	$13.32

 

+339 today. Good day. 9K now needs only 413 in 2 days which looks very doable.

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-17 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
421	105,617	9,260	8.77%	$122,710	$13.25

 

Excellent pace in the chain in last four days. Comfortably went past 9K target, outpacing DSitMoM pace. Now next target is 11.8K by T-10 Days. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/19/2022 at 2:27 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Elvis Harkins T-5 Days

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,096	48.01%	$16,651	$15.19
Thursday	99	23,679	618	2.61%	$6,974	$11.28
Total	106	25,962	1,714	6.60%	$23,625	$13.78

 

Comps

0.69x Shang Chi T-5 days - $5.86M (THU only $2.12M)

 

This looking good here. 

@Porthos may be worth Quick and Dirty check.

Elvis Harkins T-3 Days

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,312	57.47%	$20,115	$15.33
Thursday	99	23,679	1,017	4.29%	$11,477	$11.29
Total	106	25,962	2,329	8.97%	$31,592	$13.56

 

Comps

0.51x Eternals T-3 days - $4.84M (THU only $2.11M)

 

Strong numbers in the chain. FRI sales are impressive as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/19/2022 at 2:31 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-12 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
292	75,707	558	0.74%	$6,640	$11.90

 

Comps

0.234x Eternals T-12 days - $2.23M

0.511x Shang Chi T-12 days - $4.34M

 

Added Eternals comp just to see how useless Shang Chi comp is, but may work out afterall due to various factors in play. Also these comps should be shaved 20% due to kids tickets difference. Actual gross will be around 80-85% of these.

 

Ofc these CBM comps means nothing but was bit scary that Shang Chi was comping to $4M+ this far out. Minions will be a huge walkins monster. 

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-10 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
292	75,699	688	0.91%	$8,301	$12.07

 

Comps

0.255x Eternals T-10 days - $2.42M

 

Going well. Lightyear was 747 T-8 days, which was its first day of sales and 2059 by T-4 days. Minions will cross T-8 number comfortably, should be around there for T-4 days as well.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Well now we just need to know what that Wed number actually is. 👍

 

Otherwise...

 

Honestly I am confused. The data points are there for $5.2M not including WED EA if you see what they reported for FRI.

 

But the numbers they reported for SAT and SUN doesn't add up. So I think throw Lightyear in trash.