The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Borf the Borf]

 Anecdotal but uhmy local theater  doesnt look like thaat good.  Imax 11am showing 

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

 Anecdotal but uhmy local theater  doesnt look like thaat good.  Imax 11am showing 

It’s an 11AM showing in a workday, it’s not going to look THAT great.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I think Friday projections based on PS comps to DS2 may be low as Friday is more walkup driven than Thursday, so it's easier for Thor to improve the ratio throughout the day.

[keysersoze123]

 

 

Congrats to all the trackers. They were spot on. 

[Tinalera]

Thor4

SW/Toronto Ontario T-0 (Friday only Final count as of 11 AM EST no available comps)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Fri	20	275	12347	53229	65576	0.1882

 

[Tinalera]

I will say from my perspective Thor has been an interesting one to track if for no other reason of what it might comp to, comparisons to Dr Strange, it was just a interesting (IMO) animal.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

Congrats to all the trackers. They were spot on. 

At least I got one thing right this week: Disney again rounds to an even million for previews  

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Fri)	PLF	85	1,543	6,146	17,501	35.12%	$15.35	$94,359.05
		Standard	155	1,920	5,093	20,804	24.48%	$11.23	$57,173.59
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		240	3,463	11,239	38,305	29.34%	$13.48	$151,532.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Thor 4 (Fri)	N	122	1,861	7,514	19,598	38.34%	$14.53	$109,146.94
		Y	118	1,602	3,725	18,707	19.91%	$11.38	$42,385.70
	Thor 4 (Fri) Total		240	3,463	11,239	38,305	29.34%	$13.48	$151,532.64

 

Shockingly coming in right where predicted.  I used 11,275 for the hypothetical comps yesterday, so here are the final numbers.

 

Thor Fri T-0 comps

 

 - NWH - .517x (37.23m)

 - Batman - 1.14x (39.96m)

 - DS2 - .705x (38.56m)

 - TG2 - 1.33x (43.53m)

 - JW3 - .753x (31.33m)

 

I'll do some adjusted comps once we get the Thursday number.  Sticking with 39.5m true Friday for now though.

 

Not too much adjustment to do with Thursday being pretty in line with projections.  Here are the direct adjustments

 

Thor Fri adjusted comps

 - NWH - 37.85m

 - Batman - 37.52m

 - DS2 - 43.49m

 - TG2 - 38.75m

 - JW3 - 39.82m

 

It's tough, because the presales multiplier came in very close to NWH and Batman, but much higher than DS2.  If that continues, we get the adjusted comps above with a big gap between.  I've run a few scenarios and I think it should be able to clear 40m, but not by much.  Final prediction for true Friday: 40.5m.

[Shawn Robbins]

On 7/6/2022 at 6:39 PM, keysersoze123 said:

BO is saying 135m+. So what has changed now. @Shawn

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-thor-love-and-thunder-looks-to-strike-with-135m-domestic-debut/

 

It was basically the same range as last week (140-167 to 135-165), just lowered the floor by $5M out of abundance of caution over some opinions about pre-sale trends at that point in the week + what Disney was saying behind the scenes. Pinpoint was virtually unchanged, though -- $155M on June 30 and $154M on July 6.

 

So no significant change, just marginal model shifts. I had a feeling this would end up more backloaded sales-wise, with more content in the market and the holiday skewing things.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Sat)	PLF	82	4,597	4,597	16,938	27.14%	$15.02	$69,041.72
		Standard	155	2,987	2,987	20,994	14.23%	$10.70	$31,975.11
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	7,584	7,584	37,932	19.99%	$13.32	$101,016.83

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Thor 4 (Sat)	N	122	3,735	3,735	19,598	19.06%	$15.25	$56,973.66
		Y	115	3,849	3,849	18,334	20.99%	$11.44	$44,043.17
	Thor 4 (Sat) Total		237	7,584	7,584	37,932	19.99%	$13.32	$101,016.83

 

Very close to Friday T-1 (7,776 sold).  I only polled Batman and Minions Sat on Fri.

 

Rough Sat T-1 comp

 - Batman - .93x (40.23m)

 

If it continues to follow Friday sales, adjusted comps would put Saturday at 43.5m

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I'll put my final prediction at 29m.

 

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

Not gonna quite call for 29.5m though, as I said I was gonna anchor on MoM.  So with that in mind, let's go for an even 29m +/- .8m.

 

16 hours ago, M37 said:

Probably enough strong numbers to tentatively expect $28-29M, but lets see how the later updates look

 

12 hours ago, ZackM said:

Last Thor4 update of the night.  I'll have final numbers in the morning.  Alpha comps would put it around 29M

 

[M37]

On 7/4/2022 at 8:41 AM, M37 said:

Based on my analysis of the data posted in the tracking threads, here are projected final totals for ticket sales for Thor L&T for some of the tracking samples:

Tracker	Market/Chain	Current	Projected	% Change	Final vs MoM
Eric	Philly	7,727	12,500	61.8%	$21.85
Inceptionzq	Denver	6,682	10,500	57.1%	$24.60
Inceptionzq	Megaplex	7,082	11,800	66.6%	$22.91
Inceptionzq	Drafthouse	16,925	27,000	59.5%	$30.02
Porthos	Sacto	9,559	15,000	56.9%	$25.57
ZackM	ALPHA	277,718	405,000	45.8%	$26.17
ZackM	ALPHA (Final)	277,718	475,000	71.0%	$26.34

 

Seeing most tracking samples on pace to converge by Thursday using this methodology leads me to believe there's something there. For official forecast purposes, will round up a bit, including a smallish bump in ATP since Dr Strange: Projected Thor L&T Thursday = $26.5M (+/- $1M)

 

Will follow up with a post-analysis on Friday, after all numbers are in. Happy Independence Day!

 

Alpha numbers revised 7/05

As promised, now that final tracking figures are in, following up to the post above, served with a side of crow

Tacker	Market/Chain	Proj T-0	Actual	Variance	Final vs MoM
Eric	Philly	12,500	13,676	9.4%	$23.91
Inceptionzq	Denver	10,500	12,234	16.5%	$28.67
Inceptionzq	Megaplex	11,800	14,562	23.4%	$28.27
Inceptionzq	Drafthouse	27,000	26,814	-0.7%	$29.81
Porthos	Sacto	15,000	16,962	13.1%	$28.92
ZackM	ALPHA	405,000	407,822	0.7%	$26.35
ZackM	ALPHA (Final)	475,000	523,201	10.1%	$29.02

 

 

Pretty much a 10-15% miss across the board, with the exception of Drafthouse ... which was its own special kind of miss

On 7/4/2022 at 8:41 AM, M37 said:

Unless Drafthouse adds a whole lot more shows & seats, that projected sales figure won't verify, as it would be over 93% capacity of current allotment; even if the demand was there, limited supply would push people to other locations within those markets (Strange finished at 69% capacity, Thor is already at 60%)

 

Should have listened to @charlie Jatinder (though I would still contend his confidence was a bit misplaced, I don't have the data to really argue otherwise) - or at least listened to myself

On 7/4/2022 at 8:41 AM, M37 said:

With the major caveat that a pre-holiday weekend could potentially affecting ticket buying patterns ...

On 7/4/2022 at 8:41 AM, M37 said:

NOTES: Now normally I would say a +/- 5% MOE on both ends, but in this specific case its probably as likely the projection undershoots by 10% than comes in over

 

While I sill believe this work-in-progress method has merit (and hopefully, others will soon too), this outcome was clearly a miss. But as I've said before, every "miss" is an opportunity to learn, reevaluate, and correct. IMO, the bigger lesson is not anything about Thor specifically, being a less spoiler-y and therefore walk-up heavier audience than MCU/tentpole comparables, but much more an artifact of timing

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

Regardless of what the preview number actually ends up being, I think one thing this thread has conclusively learned is Fourth of July fucks with pre-sales.

 

Something to remember in future years.

 

And finally to follow-up to this question:

15 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

I mean, how significant is it really? If you take Alpha, Sunday+Monday probably wasn't going over 50k even in the best case. If you take those 24k "lost" sales from the long weekend and distribute them equally over all three days (which doesn't make sense to me, since they should be more heavily skewed toward Tuesday), that's still around 8k per day, not enough to make much of a dent in the same-day Thursday sales. 

Based on the final total and sketching out a more "normal" trajectory for the last week, I estimate that by T-2 (Tuesday), Thor was "short" roughly 25-30K in Alpha ticket sales, mostly from Sun/Mon/Tue but also from the week or so before that, making back some of that deficit with the Wednesday surge, and the rest on Thursday. That would have been ~7% of the cumulative total to that point, and while some may claim that's not "significant", if the goal of tracking is estimate/project the final end point before the final numbers are in, then when a ticket is purchased actually matters a great deal towards that endeavor

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-2 Saturday(335 showings): 5125(+1183)/80933

0.552x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (31.92M) [+1443]

0.997x Batman T-2 (43.13M)

0.273x NWH T-2 (20.18M)

 

T-3 Sunday(324 showings): 1756(+402)/79733

0.691x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (26.85M) [+348]

1.35x Batman T-3 (46.13M)

0.368x NWH T-3 (23.61M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-1 Saturday(335 showings): 7368(+2243)/80933

0.622x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (35.97M) [+2560]

0.956x Batman T-1 (41.34M)

0.315x NWH T-1 (23.29M)

 

T-2 Sunday(324 showings): 2451(+695)/79733

0.770x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (29.94M) [+641]

1.22x Batman T-2 (41.61M)

0.382x NWH T-2 (24.54M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/7/2022 at 3:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Saturday(455 showings): 22669(+3646)/59738 ATP: $14.54

0.675x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (39.00M) [+3318]

0.845x Batman T-2 (36.53M)

0.606x NWH T-2 (44.77M)

 

T-3 Sunday(409 showings): 13516(+1942)/54710 ATP: $14.28

0.660x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (25.68M) [+2685]

0.909x Batman T-3 (31.04M)

0.572x NWH T-3 (36.72M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Saturday(455 showings): 29452(+6788)/59738 ATP: $14.36

0.753x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (43.54M) [+5500]

0.892x Batman T-1 (38.59M)

0.672x NWH T-1 (49.69M)

 

T-2 Sunday(409 showings): 17842(+4326)/54710 ATP: $14.20

0.725x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (28.19M) [+4145]

0.915x Batman T-2 (31.25M)

0.601x NWH T-2 (38.59M)

[LegendaryBen]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-6	Jax	6	18	6	74	1,884	3.93%
		Phx	5	15	4	31	1,833	1.69%
		Ral	7	22	24	161	2,101	7.66%
	Total		18	55	34	266	5,818	4.57%
Crawdads (EA)	T-5	Jax	1	1	2	24	86	27.91%
	Total		1	1	2	24	86	27.91%
Nope	T-13	Jax	7	50	5	89	8,422	1.06%
		Phx	6	20	18	144	4,344	3.31%
		Ral	8	25	4	117	3,411	3.43%
	Total		21	95	27	350	16,177	2.16%
Paws of Fury	T-6	Jax	6	24	0	9	2,292	0.39%
		Phx	5	16	4	15	1,628	0.92%
		Ral	7	20	0	16	1,984	0.81%
	Total		18	60	4	40	5,904	0.68%

 

Ahh finished today's run in 11 minutes!

 

Crawdads T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .733x (2.34m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Uncharted - .5x (1.85m)

 - Black Phone - 1.97x (5.12m)

 

Paws of Fury T-6 comps

 - Bad Guys - .645x (742k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .93x (837k)

 - Encanto - .488x (732k)

 

Nope T-13 comps

 - NTTD - .854x (4.44m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.31x (5.37m)

 - F9 - .547x (3.88m)

 - Morbius - .7x (3.97m)

Paws will open sub-$10m while Crawdads is targeting in the mid-to-high teens.

Edited July 8, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[Tinalera]

This won't affect US really (except for US/Canada combined BO) but we've a bit of an oopsie up here and about 10 million canadians have lost phone service, internet service, and canadians in general can't access ATMs, Interac (debit), or any thing that connects to Rogers internet as its right now just GONE. ANNND they are now saying it may not be fixed till Monday, so we may see a drop of sales from Canada weekend. Now Canada is a drop in the bucket but if by Monday Thor4 numbers seem soft coming from Canada, well that's why.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

This won't affect US really (except for US/Canada combined BO) but we've a bit of an oopsie up here and about 10 million canadians have lost phone service, internet service, and canadians in general can't access ATMs, Interac (debit), or any thing that connects to Rogers internet as its right now just GONE. ANNND they are now saying it may not be fixed till Monday, so we may see a drop of sales from Canada weekend. Now Canada is a drop in the bucket but if by Monday Thor4 numbers seem soft coming from Canada, well that's why.

 

Yeah, baumer mentioned that this morning - I hope it gets fixed way earlier than Monday, and not just for movie reasons!

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	318	13040	2.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

2.544x of Space Jam 2 T-14 (33.33M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	333	13040	2.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.424x of F9 T-13 (3.01M)

2.296x of Space Jam 2 T-13 (30.08M)

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	333	13040	2.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.424x of F9 T-13 (3.01M)

2.296x of Space Jam 2 T-13 (30.08M)

There are no comps other than 30 & 3? I think T-13 is early enough to have data of multiple movies. Like may be Halloween or Scream.

[Borf the Borf]

19 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Naa it won't be interesting at all. It is rather very boring. 

Turning out kinda intresting no?