The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Wow, a sequel to a film that nobody give a shit is going to make the biggest opening of the year? The end of comic book movies or the US market?

wait you mean to tell me that "cultural impact" was just a meme made up to attack avatar and has no effect on box office?

you mean to tell me that declaring that "no one cares about avatar" once a week for 13 years was not only untrue but aslo an oxymoron?
you mean to tell me the general audience actually aren't mindless peons and can remember going to see Avatar multiple times back in 2009

 

who would have known

 

[ringedmortality]

Do you guys think there’s gonna be any change in studio thinking with both Top Gun and Avatar being the highest grossing movies of the year.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Do you guys think there’s gonna be any change in studio thinking with both Top Gun and Avatar being the highest grossing movies of the year.

Nope

[GOGODanca]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Do you guys think there’s gonna be any change in studio thinking with both Top Gun and Avatar being the highest grossing movies of the year.

Studios will line up to pony up a $1b production budget for a cameron and cruise Scifi action shot in space

[Grebacio]

32 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Studios will line up to pony up a $1b production budget for a cameron and cruise Scifi action shot in space

Tom Cruise will join Avatar 4 and will fly some jets

[ZeeSoh]

Moderation: @Gavin Feng @IronJimbo please take the cringe fest to the Avatar thread and do not derail this thread.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Do you guys think there’s gonna be any change in studio thinking with both Top Gun and Avatar being the highest grossing movies of the year.

Nope. 

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	2487	27336	9.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 161

 

Comp

2.482x of F9 T-8 (17.62M)

2.585x of Venom 2 T-8 (29.99M)

2.643x of No Time to Die T-8 (16.65M)

2.885x of Dune T-8 (14.71M)

3.132x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-8 (18.79M)

1.295x of Top Gun 2 T-8 (24.95M)

1.166x of Jurassic World 3 T-8 (21M)

2.691x of Black Adam T-8 (20.45M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	156	2702	27336	9.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 215

 

Comp

2.561x of F9 T-7 (18.18M)

2.603x of Venom 2 T-7 (30.2M)

2.559x of No Time to Die T-7 (16.12M)

2.921x of Dune T-7 (14.9M)

3.036x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-7 (18.22M)

1.288x of Top Gun 2 T-7 (24.82M)

1.208x of Jurassic World 3 T-7 (21.74M)

2.618x of Black Adam T-7 (19.9M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	502	11535	4.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 35

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.316x of Sing 2 T-14 (3.08M)

1.000x of Sonic 2 T-14 (6.25M)

4.081x of Minions 2 T-14 (43.87M)

17.929x of Super Pets T-14 (39.44M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.197x of Sing 2 T-14 (1.6M)

0.070x of Sonic 2 T-14 (436K)

0.284x of Minions 2 T-14 (3.06M)

1.250x of Super Pets T-14 (2.75M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	502	11535	4.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

Total Seats WITHOUT Early Access: 35

 

Comp w/ Early Access

0.309x of Sing 2 T-13 (3M)

0.928x of Sonic 2 T-13 (5.8M)

3.486x of Minions 2 T-13 (37.47M)

15.212x of Super Pets T-13 (33.47M)

 

Comp w/out Early Access

0.160x of Sing 2 T-13 (1.31M)

0.065x of Sonic 2 T-13 (404K)

0.243x of Minions 2 T-13 (2.61M)

1.061x of Super Pets T-13 (2.33M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	13	5433	0.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.079x of Nope T-29 (510K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	15	5433	0.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

0.085x of Nope T-28 (542K)

[Porthos]

On 12/7/2022 at 11:39 PM, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	22207	26129	3922	15.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

261

 

T-8 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	399.39		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		2915	134.55%		20.37m
Bats	78.82		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		21117	18.57%		17.02m
FB3	322.27		150	1217		0/166	23151/24368	4.99%		4456	88.02%		19.34m
TGM	70.41		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	34.18%		13.56m
JWD	109.83		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	35.77%		19.77m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:         907/9649  [9.40% sold]
Matinee:     473/3673  [12.88% | 12.06% of all tickets sold]
3D:          2657/17023  [15.61% | 67.75% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    2030/7439  [27.29% | 56.02% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	21975	26129	4154	15.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

232

 

T-7 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	396.37		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	142.50%		20.22m
Bats	80.16		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		21117	19.67%		17.32m
FB3	315.65		99	1316		0/171	23452/24768	5.31%		4456	93.22%		18.94m
TGM	69.90		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	36.20%		13.46m
JWD	106.92		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	37.88%		19.25m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        967/9649  [10.02% sold]
Matinee:    496/3673  [13.50% | 11.94% of all tickets sold]
3D:         2792/17023  [16.40% | 67.21% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    2124/7439  [28.55% | 55.46% of all tickets sold]

[Juby]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-blumhouses-m3gan-tracking-for-a-solid-2023-lead-off-plus-the-latest-avatar-the-way-of-water-projections/

 

Nice bump for Avatar

[Mattrek]

40 minutes ago, Juby said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-blumhouses-m3gan-tracking-for-a-solid-2023-lead-off-plus-the-latest-avatar-the-way-of-water-projections/

 

Nice bump for Avatar

 

Only going in 1 direction: up.
 

Nov. 18 135-175m

Nov. 25 140-175m

Dec. 2 150-180m

Dec. 9 167-192m

[IronJimbo]

18 minutes ago, Mattrek said:

 

Only going in 1 direction: up.
 

Nov. 18 135-175m

Nov. 25 140-175m

Dec. 2 150-180m

Dec. 9 167-192m

 

you'll find me at the top!

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	48	244	126	6	3
Seats Added	7,096	27,498	14,059	490	614
Seats Sold	6,657	5,248	4,766	4,362	3,073
12/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,869	101,938	793,177	12.85%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	26	79	171
ATP
$18.71

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	33	48	244	126	6
Seats Added	6,327	7,096	27,498	14,059	490
Seats Sold	6,345	6,657	5,248	4,766	4,362
12/8/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,902	108,283	799,504	13.54%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	27	89	188
ATP
$18.65

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

[Krissykins]

There’s nothing that screams “waste of time” more than an obvious Oscar bait film with bad reviews lol. 
 

Empire of Light is one.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Juby said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-blumhouses-m3gan-tracking-for-a-solid-2023-lead-off-plus-the-latest-avatar-the-way-of-water-projections/

 

Nice bump for Avatar

Also a rather notable bump for Babylon too. FWIW it's already sold a bunch of tickets for that weekend near me so clearly there's interest in it.

 

Most importantly:

 

1/6/2023	M3GAN	$20,000,000 – $35,000,000	NEW	$49,000,000 – $77,000,000	NEW	Universal Pictures

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

Hmm, I’m curious when we will start seeing a noticeable convergence in the TGM/JWD numbers vs the SH numbers AND is that convergence going to be due to upward movement for the SH comps or downward movement for JWD/TGM.

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Hmm, I’m curious when we will start seeing a noticeable convergence in the TGM/JWD numbers vs the SH numbers AND is that convergence going to be due to upward movement for the SH comps or downward movement for JWD/TGM.

Most of the major converging will happen in the final day or two.

[M37]

On 12/2/2022 at 10:34 AM, M37 said:

Tampa/St Pete T-14 Update

Not really much to add, sales keep plugging along. PLF 3D did finally dip below 50%, but overall PLFs still making up 2/3rd of all Thursday sales. Expect both of those numbers to continue to reduce up until debut, as there just aren't that many seats left, so 3D and 2D will get spillover and grow more

 

Figured this was a better format than pie chart to show changes over time

 

 

Looks like I never posted the T-11 update for this market, but here's T-7 breakdown by format, with decent growth in 3D and Standard 2 shows over the past few days

 

As much as the hype train seems to be barreling down the tracks the last few days, let me try to pump the breaks a bit? At present, PLF ticket (2,403) still represent over 62.8% of all Thursday sales in this market, and available seats continue to dwindle. So let's set a nice round target of 3,000 total PLF tickets by preview Thursday, and look at what share (%) of overall ticket sales that estimated figure could represent:

 

PLF Share	62.8%	60%	55%	50%	45%	40%	35%	30%	25%
PLF Tickets	2,403	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000
3D/2D Tickets	1,423	2,000	2,455	3,000	3,667	4,500	5,571	7,000	9,000
3D/2D Growth		40.5%	72.5%	110.8%	157.7%	216.2%	291.5%	391.9%	523.5%
Overall Growth		30.7%	42.6%	56.8%	74.2%	96.0%	124.0%	161.4%	213.6%

 

 

For reference, here is the approximate (eyeball average) growth rate from T-7 to T-0 for some high profile titles, including the comps being used for Avatar

• JWD = ~190%
• TGM = ~150% (includes EA shows)
• Batman = ~130%
• BPWF = ~100%
• Venom 2 = ~400%

In other words, in order for overall tickets sales to pace like TGM (+160%) over this final week even as PLF shows cap out, the 2D & 3D shows would have to sell at Venom 2 pace (+400%) during that time!! At least to me, that seems like a pretty high bar, which is why I continue to expect a much more muted final push, with a convergence between the higher walk-up titles (TGM, JWD) and the more pre-sale heavy CBMs (Batman et all)