The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

Some Drafthouse showings are giving me errors, so no numbers there today.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Btw just as a reminder BPWF and Thor social reactions bumps will be seen in the next couple of days, so the relative pace is gonna look artificially low until QM's premiere on Monday. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Borobudur]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 $120M OW and a 2.5x multiplier would get it just over $300M. It's gonna need strong WOM since recent MCU films have been more frontloaded 

2.5x multiplier is a big ask for MCU movies nowadays. Only SC and NWH managed to pass that mark comfortably. SC is a relatively low opener so it is easier to leg out whereas NWH is a holiday opener. $130m OW would make it easier to pass 300m. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Eh, 2.5 is perfectly doable if the film is well-received, especially given the holiday Monday will boost the multi a bit. 

[thajdikt]

The movies that didn´t manage to get a 2,5 in Phase 4 had some of the worst WOM ever for the MCU. MoM, Thor 4 and Eternals all is ranked at the bottom in terms of CinemaScore. All the other movies that had a good reception did it. Not including Black Widow in this since Disney sent that to die on D+. We will see what the consensus is about this one. But given a lower opening and a holiday Monday 2,5 should be doable assuming that WOM isn´t terrible. Something that I´m not fully convinced on. The fact that social reactions is closer to a week rather than the 2 weeks+ they usually have doesn´t reek confidence.

[dobrevv]

4 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

The movies that didn´t manage to get a 2,5 in Phase 4 had some of the worst WOM ever for the MCU. MoM, Thor 4 and Eternals all is ranked at the bottom in terms of CinemaScore. All the other movies that had a good reception did it. Not including Black Widow in this since Disney sent that to die on D+. We will see what the consensus is about this one. But given a lower opening and a holiday Monday 2,5 should be doable assuming that WOM isn´t terrible. Something that I´m not fully convinced on. The fact that social reactions is closer to a week rather than the 2 weeks+ they usually have doesn´t reek confidence.

they had confidence in eternals and thor and look how that turned out

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

The movies that didn´t manage to get a 2,5 in Phase 4 had some of the worst WOM ever for the MCU. MoM, Thor 4 and Eternals all is ranked at the bottom in terms of CinemaScore. All the other movies that had a good reception did it. Not including Black Widow in this since Disney sent that to die on D+. We will see what the consensus is about this one. But given a lower opening and a holiday Monday 2,5 should be doable assuming that WOM isn´t terrible. Something that I´m not fully convinced on. The fact that social reactions is closer to a week rather than the 2 weeks+ they usually have doesn´t reek confidence.

T-14 vs T-10 for reactions means absolutely nothing. Reviews are coming out on the exact same date as every MCU film since NWH. 

 

Anyway assuming a 120 opening from let's say 20-32-37-31, OWeek would probably be around/over 160. Beating 300 from there would just require a similar/slightly better Total/opening week than Love and Thunder. 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Eric Loves Rey]

22 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

80 for Brady Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	550	5932	9.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Comp - T-2

3.073x of Death on the Nile (3.38M)

2.670x of Dog (3.36M)

0.814x of The Lost City (2.64M)

1.188x of Downton Abbey 2 (2.26M)

0.855x of Elvis (2.99M)

2.115x of Where the Crawdads Sing (4.86M)

7.639x of Ticket to Paradise (8.4M)

 

Early Access shows make up 446 tickets sold.

80 for Brady Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	603	5932	10.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

 

Comp - T-1

1.647x of House of Gucci (2.14M)

2.301x of Death on the Nile (2.53M)

2.680x of Dog (3.38M)

0.779x of The Lost City (2.53M)

1.049x of Downton Abbey 2 (1.99M)

0.818x of Elvis (2.86M)

1.833x of Where the Crawdads Sing (4.21M)

5.912x of Ticket to Paradise (6.5M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

22 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	316	9254	3.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

 

Comp - T-2

0.646x of The Black Phone (1.94M)

0.632x of Smile (1.26M)

0.997x of M3GAN (2.74M)

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	411	9254	4.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 95

 

Comp - T-1

1.563x of Old (2.34M)

0.559x of The Black Phone (1.68M)

0.725x of Smile (1.45M)

0.842x of M3GAN (2.32M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

22 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3999	31384	12.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 76

 

Comp - T-16

2.325x of Black Widow (30.69M)

5.664x of Shang-Chi (49.84M)

2.943x of Eternals (27.95M)

0.317x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (15.84M)

0.858x of The Batman (18.53M)

0.427x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.39M)

0.789x of Thor 4 (22.88M)

0.615x of Black Panther 2 (17.23M)

2.366x of Avatar 2 (40.23M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	4096	31384	13.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 97

 

Comp - T-15

2.318x of Black Widow (30.6M)

4.941x of Shang-Chi (43.48M)

2.838x of Eternals (26.97M)

0.307x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (15.35M)

0.859x of The Batman (18.56M)

0.431x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.53M)

0.790x of Thor 4 (22.91M)

0.615x of Black Panther 2 (17.23M)

2.286x of Avatar 2 (38.86M)

[keysersoze123]

Knock at the Cabin MTC1 previews (T-1) -18798/230654 331125.14 1302 shows

 

I must admit the presales past 3 days have not been as good as what I expected. it could still have great walkups to hit the 3m previews i expected looking at presales on Sunday. But I would be happy with 2.5m at this point. 

[Ronin46]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Knock at the Cabin MTC1 previews (T-1) -18798/230654 331125.14 1302 shows

 

I must admit the presales past 3 days have not been as good as what I expected. it could still have great walkups to hit the 3m previews i expected looking at presales on Sunday. But I would be happy with 2.5m at this point. 

 10 multiplier or is that unlikely?

[Porthos]

On 2/1/2023 at 1:18 AM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	239	28513	32977	4464	13.54%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	421
Total Seats Sold Today	74

 

T-16 Comps

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.52		166	10027		0/351	32409/42436	23.63%		21117	21.14%		16.03m
L&T	71.95		170	6204		0/228	25396/31600	19.63%		16962	26.32%		20.87m
BP2	66.59		130	6704		1/294	30320/37024	18.11%		16800	26.57%		18.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     902/13004  [6.94% sold]
Matinee:    143/3314  [4.32% | 3.20% of all tickets sold]
3D:            523/6536  [8.00% | 11.72% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	238	28177	32794	4617	14.08%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	183
Total Seats Sold Today	153

 

T-15 Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	45.22		182	10209		0/351	32227/42436	24.06%		21117	21.86%		16.28m
L&T	72.66		150	6354		0/228	25246/31600	20.11%		16962	27.22%		21.07m
BP2	67.60		126	6830		2/294	30194/37024	18.45%		16800	27.48%		18.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     968/13004  [7.44% sold]
Matinee:    143/3314  [4.32% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
3D:            536/6536  [8.20% | 11.61% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Total sold today is slightly misleading, as there was a group sale of 46 tickets at one showing at a local theater.  I went ahead and checked on the corp site of the theater in question, and it looks legit (no other showings have the same pattern of seat sales on any other days).  But if it goes away in a few days, I'll make a mention of it.

 

Still, as I've said before, group sales happen.  And in the grand scheme of things, it'll be a drop in the bucket of total sales, but mentioning it for the folks keeping a peek at the pace.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

Looks like you dropped your top box there (TOTALS)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Looks like you dropped your top box there (TOTALS)

 

Fixed. 👍

[Legion Again]

Right now, Sacto (and some other regionals) underindexing pretty noticeable vs mtc1&2. Will be interesting to see which path the dark magic takes to converge (or maybe this will remain with a big gap in final, because of being strong in untracked regions and/or weak in mtc3).    
 

Ran a little math tonight and I’m hoping to see ~10.5M natl on t-4 (which would take to ~24 if received well). Currently about 6.4 which is pretty much on track but the u bottom is often fairly uninformative 🤷‍♂️

[filmlover]

14 hours ago, thajdikt said:

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

 

"Disney is always part of the pigskin show and expect no less from them this year as they’re poised to tout spots for Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Feb. 17), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (May 5), The Little Mermaid (May 26), Pixar’s Elemental (June 16) and possibly Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30) and Marvel Studios’ The Marvels (July 28). No spots for Disney+’s Secret Invasion are expected."

 

Ant-Man boost from this given how close it is from release?

Universal (apparently) not having a Super Bowl spot for Super Mario when it'll be less than two from release is certainly a choice.

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Universal (apparently) not having a Super Bowl spot for Super Mario when it'll be less than two from release is certainly a choice.

 

They'll save a ton of money if the advertise during March Madness vs now - it's the better time for them to build momentum anyway...

 

$7M for Super Bowl Ad

$2M for March Madness Championship Game Ad (projected based on 2022 prices)

Edited February 2, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Maggie]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Universal (apparently) not having a Super Bowl spot for Super Mario when it'll be less than two from release is certainly a choice.

Yeah this. And Paramount not having one for MI:DR is also strange. I hope they don't plan on moving it

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-1	Jax	5	23	27	91	2,763	3.29%
		Phx	6	22	13	49	2,297	2.13%
		Ral	7	29	6	87	2,956	2.94%
	Total		18	74	46	227	8,016	2.83%
Ant-Man 3	T-15	Jax	6	91	30	1,171	15,860	7.38%
		Phx	6	85	15	1,204	15,027	8.01%
		Ral	8	102	32	1,207	13,657	8.84%
	Total		20	278	77	3,582	44,544	8.04%
Brady EA (1/31)	T-0	Jax	3	3	12	77	446	17.26%
		Phx	1	1	9	59	106	55.66%
		Ral	1	1	6	15	139	10.79%
	Total		5	5	27	151	691	21.85%
Brady EA (2/1)	T-0	Jax	3	3	3	25	446	5.61%
		Phx	1	1	10	31	106	29.25%
		Ral	1	1	0	3	73	4.11%
	Total		5	5	13	59	625	9.44%
Chosen 3 Finale	T-1	Jax	5	12	31	352	1,677	20.99%
		Phx	4	10	7	551	1,813	30.39%
		Ral	7	18	13	555	1,957	28.36%
	Total		16	40	51	1,458	5,447	26.77%
Knock at Cabin	T-1	Jax	6	25	14	93	4,520	2.06%
		Phx	6	17	16	66	3,390	1.95%
		Ral	7	28	17	91	3,762	2.42%
	Total		19	70	47	250	11,672	2.14%
Magic Mike 3	T-8	Jax	4	20	3	36	2,295	1.57%
		Phx	4	9	2	7	1,567	0.45%
		Ral	7	16	10	56	2,018	2.78%
	Total		15	45	15	99	5,880	1.68%
Titanic (Re)	T-8	Jax	5	13	6	24	1,950	1.23%
		Phx	4	8	0	18	1,086	1.66%
		Ral	6	12	3	25	1,372	1.82%
	Total		15	33	9	67	4,408	1.52%

 

80 for Brady T-1 comps (excluding EA)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.142x (1.07m)

 - Menu - 1.066x (1.066m)

 - Violent Night - 1.195x (1.31m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.158x (1.1m)

 - Lost City - .47x (1.17m)

 

Pretty clear that this should be around 1.1 for true previews.

 

80 for Brady including EA

 - Lost City + EA - .753x (2.45m)

 - Downton + EA - .477x (859k)

 - Ticket to Paradise + EA - 1.921x (2.11m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-1 comps

 - Nope - .183x (1.17m)

 - M3GAN - .749x (2.06m)

 - Black Phone - .583x (1.52m)

 - Halloween Ends - .235x (1.27m)

 - Northman - .617x (833k)

 - Crawdads - .353x (706k)

 - Old - 1.238x (1.86m)

 - Smile - 1.437x (2.44m)

 

Disappointing last few days has me thinking this could be around 1.5m when all is said and done.  

 

Chosen Season 3 Finale T-1 comps

 - Chosen 3 ep 1-2 - .632x (2.37m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 3.247x (2.51m)

 - Left Behind - 3.522x (2.15m)

 

I feel pretty confident that this will clear 2m. I'd guess around 2.25m at the moment.

 

Magic Mike 3 T-8 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.179x

 - Violent Night - 1.193x (1.31m)

 - Lost City - .589x (1.47m)

 

Titanic T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .211x (674k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-15 comps

 - NWH - .23x (11.49m)

 - Black Widow - 2x (26.41m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .37x (13.33m)

 - Thor 4 - .709x (20.57m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - BP2 - .617x (17.27m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-0	Jax	5	24	20	111	2,800	3.96%
		Phx	6	23	27	76	2,336	3.25%
		Ral	7	29	18	105	2,956	3.55%
	Total		18	76	65	292	8,092	3.61%
Ant-Man 3	T-14	Jax	6	91	22	1,193	15,860	7.52%
		Phx	6	85	31	1,235	15,027	8.22%
		Ral	8	102	16	1,223	13,657	8.96%
	Total		20	278	69	3,651	44,544	8.20%
Brady EA (1/31)	T-0	Jax	3	3	12	77	446	17.26%
		Phx	1	1	9	59	106	55.66%
		Ral	1	1	6	15	139	10.79%
	Total		5	5	27	151	691	21.85%
Brady EA (2/1)	T-0	Jax	3	3	3	25	446	5.61%
		Phx	1	1	10	31	106	29.25%
		Ral	1	1	0	3	73	4.11%
	Total		5	5	13	59	625	9.44%
Chosen 3 Finale	T-0	Jax	5	14	12	364	1,751	20.79%
		Phx	4	10	55	606	1,813	33.43%
		Ral	7	18	26	581	1,957	29.69%
	Total		16	42	93	1,551	5,521	28.09%
Knock at Cabin	T-0	Jax	6	25	61	154	4,520	3.41%
		Phx	6	17	30	96	3,390	2.83%
		Ral	8	29	27	118	3,825	3.08%
	Total		20	71	118	368	11,735	3.14%
Magic Mike 3	T-7	Jax	4	20	14	50	2,295	2.18%
		Phx	5	12	2	9	1,773	0.51%
		Ral	7	16	18	74	2,018	3.67%
	Total		16	48	34	133	6,086	2.19%
Titanic (Re)	T-7	Jax	5	13	2	26	1,950	1.33%
		Phx	4	8	4	22	1,086	2.03%
		Ral	6	12	0	25	1,372	1.82%
	Total		15	33	6	73	4,408	1.66%

 

80 for Brady T-0 comps (excluding EA)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.336x (1.17m)

 - Menu - 1.066x (1.066m)

 - Violent Night - 1.098x (1.21m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - 1.032x (980k)

 - Lost City - .426x (1.06m)

 

I'm going to lower my true previews number to 1m.  The lower ATP is going to hurt a little.

 

80 for Brady including EA

 - Lost City + EA - .66x (2.14m)

 - Downton + EA - .479x (862k)

 - Ticket to Paradise + EA - 1.65x (1.81m)

 - The Menu + EA - 1.492x (1.49m)

 

Hoping for around 2m at least for total previews.  The early shows all sold very well.

 

Knock at the Cabin T-0 comps

 - Nope - .185x (1.19m)

 - M3GAN - .603x (1.66m)

 - Black Phone - .544x (1.42m)

 - Halloween Ends - .256x (1.38m)

 - Northman - .67x (905k)

 - Crawdads - .381x (762k)

 - Old - 1.122x (1.68m)

 - Smile - 1.831x (3.11m)

 

Gonna go with 1.75m for previews.

 

Chosen Season 3 Finale T-0 comps

 - Chosen 3 ep 1-2 - .626x (2.35m)

 - I Heard the Bells - 3.127x (2.42m)

 - Left Behind - 3.416x (2.09m)

 

Final prediction is 2.3m for previews.

 

Magic Mike 3 T-7 comps

 - 80 for Brady - 1.385x

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Lost City - .665x (1.66m)

 

Titanic T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .209x (669k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-14 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.93x (25.43m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .37x (13.31m)

 - Thor 4 - .7x (20.31m)

 - Eternals - 2.65x (25.21m)

 - BP2 - missed