The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Yeah this. And Paramount not having one for MI:DR is also strange. I hope they don't plan on moving it

Disney seems to be the only studio going all out but that's because Ant-Man comes out the following weekend + they have 4 big movies opening between the beginning of May and the end of June that are likely about to shift their marketing campaigns into higher gear (at least Guardians/Little Mermaid).

[VanillaSkies]

Page 666 😅

[M37]

4 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Right now, Sacto (and some other regionals) underindexing pretty noticeable vs mtc1&2. Will be interesting to see which path the dark magic takes to converge (or maybe this will remain with a big gap in final, because of being strong in untracked regions and/or weak in mtc3).    
 

Ran a little math tonight and I’m hoping to see ~10.5M natl on t-4 (which would take to ~24 if received well). Currently about 6.4 which is pretty much on track but the u bottom is often fairly uninformative 🤷‍♂️

Fwiw, I've got current DOM sales for Ant-Man Thursday at about $7.8M. Alpha's PSM for MCU usually lands around $56x, and Sacto at ~$1650-$1700x for major releases (adjusting for ATP increases over time). The other markets/samples are lot more variable (except for maybe MTC2 but I don't have good data there)

 

Mostly agree with your T-4 to final math, though would be a stronger finishing kick than BPWF (+129% vs +108% for T4-->Final Alpha). Super Bowl might skew/inflate that ratio a bit, depressing Sunday or even all of T7-->T4 weekend sales, but getting a major advertising boost for the home stretch

 

Also just throwing this out there: Batman is not a great comp for a variety of reasons: DC vs MCU, EA shows, general weirdness ... but it also may not be a terrible one either. Its the closest CBM title in terms value, most analogous release date, skewed more towards MTCs/major markets, and yet had a very strong final week, in part because it needed those good reviews to get more casual/GA folks off the fence. That doesn't sound too far off from what we  currently are and perhaps hope to see from Ant-Man, no?

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

They'll save a ton of money if the advertise during March Madness vs now - it's the better time for them to build momentum anyway...

 

$7M for Super Bowl Ad

$2M for March Madness Championship Game Ad (projected based on 2022 prices)

There was also a Mario commercial during the championship games last week, so it’s not like they’re holding off, just bypassing the massive SB price tag 

 

Disney has more money to throw around for SB since they often use ABC/ESPN platforms for “free” advertising 

[keysersoze123]

In case @ZackM does not update today. 

 

Ant-Man 3 MTC1 previews - 139206/884606 2497693.94 4706 shows.

 

Sold about 2841 tickets from 9PM on 31st till now. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, I've got current DOM sales for Ant-Man Thursday at about $7.8M. Alpha's PSM for MCU usually lands around $56x, and Sacto at ~$1650-$1700x for major releases (adjusting for ATP increases over time). The other markets/samples are lot more variable (except for maybe MTC2 but I don't have good data there)

 

Mostly agree with your T-4 to final math, though would be a stronger finishing kick than BPWF (+129% vs +108% for T4-->Final Alpha). Super Bowl might skew/inflate that ratio a bit, depressing Sunday or even all of T7-->T4 weekend sales, but getting a major advertising boost for the home stretch

 

Also just throwing this out there: Batman is not a great comp for a variety of reasons: DC vs MCU, EA shows, general weirdness ... but it also may not be a terrible one either. Its the closest CBM title in terms value, most analogous release date, skewed more towards MTCs/major markets, and yet had a very strong final week, in part because it needed those good reviews to get more casual/GA folks off the fence. That doesn't sound too far off from what we  currently are and perhaps hope to see from Ant-Man, no?

Big issue with Batman is that it was weak in the southwest/MTC2 while Quantumania is stronger in those regions.

 

I also think 6.4 is likely closer to current number, the Alpha PSm will increase closer to release.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[filmlover]

 

[upriser7]

20 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Big issue with Batman is that it was weak in the southwest/MTC2 while Quantumania is stronger in those regions.

 

I also think 6.4 is likely closer to current number, the Alpha PSm will increase closer to release.

Since you have been tracking for a while, are there any consistent regional trends that you have observed ? Like which region of the country is strongest for MCU, DC ? Which region is strongest for say horror movies, adult dramas etc ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Since you have been tracking for a while, are there any consistent regional trends that you have observed ? Like which region of the country is strongest for MCU, DC ? Which region is strongest for say horror movies, adult dramas etc ?

Horror tends to overindex in the southwest. MCU strength tends to be pretty even nationwide though different sub franchises can overindex and origin films tend to be more skewed to cities. DC generally tends to skew more to cities though this is also heavily based on subfranchise. Adult dramas it depends, more "prestige" stuff tends to overindex in the northeast I suppose.

[M37]

20 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Big issue with Batman is that it was weak in the southwest/MTC2 while Quantumania is stronger in those regions.

Fair enough, just think you can “yeah but …” most comps here for various different reasons, and it may be close enough to be worth throwing into the average pool, probably more so than the SC/BW/Eternals grouping 

 

22 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I also think 6.4 is likely closer to current number, the Alpha PSm will increase closer to release.

I see what you’re saying: higher share early = lower PSm (and admittedly this math is far less of my lane). That both Alpha and Sacto suggested same current value is only reason I even mentioned it 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fair enough, just think you can “yeah but …” most comps here for various different reasons, and it may be close enough to be worth throwing into the average pool, probably more so than the SC/BW/Eternals grouping 

That's fair, I haven't really been paying much attention to the comps for those 3. It's definitely better than those comps. I think I saw the SC comp somewhere in the 40s which...yeah.

 

Another thing which Batman had that makes it tough though is iirc the U bottom was surprisingly low. Ant-Man has been a touch soft but not that bad. Plus EA made the final week trend really wonky with Monday being really strong but then the final couple of days being eh. 

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 10 multiplier or is that unlikely?

unlikely based on what I have seen for Friday sales. It looks frontloaded to me. 

[Cmasterclay]

Was hoping Cabin would do 30 but honestly the reality where Cabin does 20 and Brady does 17 is a much healthier box office picture than the one where Cabin did 30 and Brady did 7. We already know horror is fine.

[el sid]

What a boring counting...

80 for Brady, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 43 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 28 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): closed (weather conditions)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 24 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 59 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 161.

Up modest 17.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): Death on the Nile had 466 sold tickets,

Three Thousand Years of Longing had 231 sold tickets (not the best comp IMO),

The Lost City had 745 sold tickets

and Ticket to Paradise had 153 sold tickets.

80 for Brady, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 53 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 17 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 29 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 25 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 57 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 193. At least not frontloaded.

Up good 53% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Death on the Nile (12.9M OW) had 487 sold tickets,

Three Thousand Years of Longing (2.9M) had 192 sold tickets,
TLC (30.5M) had 695 sold tickets,
Ticket to Paradise (16.5M) had 179 sold tickets,

Dog (15.9M) had 95 sold tickets

and Cry Macho (4.4M) had 58 sold tickets.

 

With these numbers it should reach double digits, probably mid-teens.

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Was hoping Cabin would do 30 but honestly the reality where Cabin does 20 and Brady does 17 is a much healthier box office picture than the one where Cabin did 30 and Brady did 7. We already know horror is fine.

Yep. Even though this weekend isn't Superbowl weekend anymore, it's still a fantastic result for the first weekend of February, which is usually one of the yearly low weekends.

[el sid]

Knock at the Cabin, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 93 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 106 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): closed (weather conditions)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 21 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 146 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 228 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 610.

Up ok 30% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday): The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 241 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets,

Barbarian (850k) had 289 sold tickets,

Smile (2M) had 467 sold tickets

and M3gan (2.75M) had 782 sold tickets.

So around 2M would be my guess.

Knock at the Cabin, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 129 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 76 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 145 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 154 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 530.

Up only 23% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Old (16.9M) had 500 sold tickets (but it had a way better jump of 91% back then),
The Invitation (6.8M) had 204 sold tickets,

Barbarian (10.5M) had 249 sold tickets,

Smile (22.6M) had 549 sold tickets,

M3gan (30.4M) had 752 sold tickets (also with a way better jump of 49%)

and Nope (44.4M) had 2.964 sold tickets.

 

Because of the poor Friday jump I'm less optimistic now that it reaches 25M. Maybe 20M.

[ZackM]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

In case @ZackM does not update today. 

 

Ant-Man 3 MTC1 previews - 139206/884606 2497693.94 4706 shows.

 

Sold about 2841 tickets from 9PM on 31st till now. 

I’ve got my script setup to run automatically every night.  It’s just a matter of compiling the results and posting them.

[Flopped]

Do we have a sense of what Titanic is looking at next week? 

[Eric Loves Rey]

17 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

80 for Brady Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	603	5932	10.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

 

Comp - T-1

1.647x of House of Gucci (2.14M)

2.301x of Death on the Nile (2.53M)

2.680x of Dog (3.38M)

0.779x of The Lost City (2.53M)

1.049x of Downton Abbey 2 (1.99M)

0.818x of Elvis (2.86M)

1.833x of Where the Crawdads Sing (4.21M)

5.912x of Ticket to Paradise (6.5M)

80 for Brady Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	762	5932	12.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

1.268x of House of Gucci (1.65M)

1.989x of Death on the Nile (2.19M)

2.761x of Dog (3.48M)

0.746x of The Lost City (2.42M)

1.134x of Downton Abbey 2 (2.15M)

0.709x of Elvis (2.48M)

1.325x of Where the Crawdads Sing (3.05M)

3.577x of Ticket to Paradise (3.93M)

 

Very wonky, but it does indicate a 2M preview, which just...feels right, you know? Which hey! Way better than I ever expected going into it.

[Eric Loves Rey]

17 hours ago, Eric Crowe said:

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	411	9254	4.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 95

 

Comp - T-1

1.563x of Old (2.34M)

0.559x of The Black Phone (1.68M)

0.725x of Smile (1.45M)

0.842x of M3GAN (2.32M)

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	717	9254	7.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 306

 

Comp

0.839x of Old (1.26M)

0.539x of The Black Phone (1.62M)

0.796x of Smile (1.59M)

0.644x of M3GAN (1.77M)

 

Not sure why this movie had such a poor final week. I guess it could be Shyamalan fan frontloading, but that wasn't the case with Old. And reviews aren't that bad. Kinda weird, but it'll still do fine over the weekend.