The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

Chart Time! Data through T-16 updates:

 

At present, the average is floating around $19M, though likely weighted down by the monstrous early pre-sale volume of Strange, and should come up to $20M+ over time ...

 

... but currently doesn't look to pacing for all that much more than that; whole lot of nearly flat lines over the last 4-7 days.  In addition, looking at bit closer at the markets (and accounting for atypical distribution of BPWF) finding that higher comps values are in the more PLF/pre-sale heavy samples like Alpha and Drafthouse, major markets (Sacto, Philly) are a step below, and the secondary markets (Denver, Jax/Pho/Ral) are even trending lower

 

All in all, the sales to this point smell a little fan-heavy-ish, in that while the introduction of Kang spurred a larger early rush, the broader MCU audience appears to still largely view this release as an just another Ant-Man movie. As opening gets closer that perception may change, and won't be surprised with a strong late kick - especially with very good reviews in contrast to the mostly underwhelming phase 4 - but for now expectations are probably best tempered from where they may have vaulted after the opening day of sales

 

T-16 Forecast: $19-$22M Thursday, $100-$130M 3-day

[Eric Loves Rey]

Quorum Updates

Marlowe T-14: 17.33% Awareness, 4.76

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-16: 48.09%, 6.06

Cocaine Bear T-23: 34.79%, 5.84

Inside T-44: 16.72%, 5.58

The Boogeyman T-121: 34.96%, 6.18

 

80 for Brady T-2: 38.32% Awareness, 5.2 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 14% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 5M, 25% chance of 10M

 

Knock at the Cabin T-2: 38.01% Awareness, 6.17 Interest

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 30M, 76% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M

 

Chevalier T-65: 15.89% Awareness, 4.67 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 32% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 38% chance of 5M, 23% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 22% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, Eric Crowe said:

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 30M,

So I guess you could say these metrics have a little tension on this one 😂

[misterpepp]

Creed 3 on sale next Fri, 2/10.

 

There will be early access shows on March 1.

Edited February 1, 2023 by datpepper

[Factcheck]

1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

So I guess you could say these metrics have a little tension on this one 😂

This site either asks moviegoers genre-wise awareness and interest, or its interest figures are based on only actual awareness of movie (by including only those awareness who are interested in that genre and excluding those awareness who don't watch that genre at all).

Edited February 1, 2023 by Factcheck

[marveldcfox]

Ant man 3 will open in the 110-120M range.

[el sid]

80 for Brady, counted today for Thursday, Feb 2:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 28 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 21 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 25 (3 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 56 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 137. 

 

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Death on the Nile had 359 sold tickets,
Three Thousand Years of Longing had 194 sold tickets,
The Lost City had 520 sold tickets
and Ticket to Paradise had 101 sold tickets.

 

80 for Brady, counted today for Friday, Feb 3:

 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 38 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 12 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 13 (4 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 38 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 126.
 
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Death on the Nile had 357 sold tickets on Wednesday,
Three Thousand Years of Longing had 139 sold tickets,
TLC had 519 sold tickets,
Ticket to Paradise had 126 sold tickets,
Dog had 47 sold tickets,
The Good Liar had 70 sold tickets
and Cry Macho had 43 sold tickets.

 

The jumps since yesterday were very modest so I also don't expect big jumps till tomorrow. 
Very uneven from the comps. I see that it's now at 70% at RT (it should have 80% ) so hopefully its walk-ups will be good.

 

PS: It was probably mentioned already that the Cocaine Bear tickets went on sale and from what I've seen its presales looked quite good so far.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	80 for Brady (EA)	Standard	3	79	79	390	20.26%	$8.66	$684.14
T-1	80 for Brady	Standard	30	105	105	2,763	3.80%	$8.57	$899.58
T-1	Chosen Finale	Standard	22	654	654	2,532	25.83%	$13.53	$8,848.62
T-1	Knock at the Cabin	PLF	15	51	51	3,417	1.49%	$14.96	$762.76
		Standard	23	35	35	2,576	1.36%	$11.64	$407.45
	Total		38	86	86	5,993	1.44%	$13.61	$1,170.21
T-2	80 for Brady (Fri)	Standard	58	351	351	5,099	6.88%	$8.64	$3,032.64
T-2	Knock at the Cabin (Fri)	PLF	33	96	96	7,815	1.23%	$15.54	$1,491.58
		Standard	56	53	53	6,163	0.86%	$11.58	$613.61
	Total		89	149	149	13,978	1.07%	$14.13	$2,105.19

 

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	80 for Brady (Fri)	N	43	305	305	3,838	7.95%	$8.66	$2,641.30
		Y	15	46	46	1,261	3.65%	$8.51	$391.34
	Total		58	351	351	5,099	6.88%	$8.64	$3,032.64
T-2	Knock at the Cabin (Fri)		1	21	21	226	9.29%	$15.97	$335.37
		N	55	114	114	8,494	1.34%	$14.13	$1,610.42
		Y	33	14	14	5,258	0.27%	$11.39	$159.40
	Total		89	149	149	13,978	1.07%	$14.13	$2,105.19

 

I didn't check the first two EA days for Santikos - not sure if there were shows those days but that would affect things.

 

80 for Brady T-1 comps (excluding EA)

 - Downton - .533x (560k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.909x (955k)

 - Massive Talent - 2.386x (1.99m)

 - Paradise - .603x (664k)

 

80 for Brady Fri T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 4.944x (7.58m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-1 comps

 - Nope - .112x (719k)

 - Northman - .541x (730k)

 - Beast - 2.098x (1.94m)

 - Firestarter - 7.167x (2.69m)

 

Knock at the Cabin Fri T-2 comps

 - Nope - .276x (3.63m)

 - Beast - 2.569x (8.7m)

 

Don't really have any comps for Chosen, but the average comp for all movies with >100 sales is 3.21m.  If I move the threshold up to 300+, the average moves to 2.59m.

[el sid]

Knock at the Cabin, counted today for Thursday, Feb 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 70 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 86 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 12 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 20 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 124 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 157 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 471.

Up 32% since Monday which is pretty modest for two days and a horror movie.
Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday): The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 168 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 176 sold tickets,

Barbarian (850k) had 222 sold tickets,

Smile (2M) had 306 sold tickets

M3gan (2.75M) had 450 sold tickets

and Nope (6.4M) had 2.839 sold tickets.

Knock at the Cabin, counted today for Friday, Feb 3:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 116 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 55 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 119 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 116 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 431.

Up decent 51% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Old (16.9M) had 262 sold tickets,
The Invitation (6.8M) had 167 sold tickets,

Barbarian (10.5M) had 140 sold tickets,

Smile (22.6M) had 399 sold tickets,

M3gan (30.4M) had 506 sold tickets

and Nope (44.4M) had 2.408 sold tickets.

 

The Thursday jump could have been better but overall its presales are still good in my theaters. Old is probably the best comp and had a nice jump till Thursday but Knock at the Cabin will stay in front.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Ant man 3 will open in the 110-120M range.

 $120M OW and a 2.5x multiplier would get it just over $300M. It's gonna need strong WOM since recent MCU films have been more frontloaded 

[thajdikt]

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

 

"Disney is always part of the pigskin show and expect no less from them this year as they’re poised to tout spots for Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Feb. 17), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (May 5), The Little Mermaid (May 26), Pixar’s Elemental (June 16) and possibly Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30) and Marvel Studios’ The Marvels (July 28). No spots for Disney+’s Secret Invasion are expected."

 

Ant-Man boost from this given how close it is from release?

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

 

"Disney is always part of the pigskin show and expect no less from them this year as they’re poised to tout spots for Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Feb. 17), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (May 5), The Little Mermaid (May 26), Pixar’s Elemental (June 16) and possibly Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30) and Marvel Studios’ The Marvels (July 28). No spots for Disney+’s Secret Invasion are expected."

 

Ant-Man boost from this given how close it is from release?

It'll be tough to disentangle, since the final Sunday is supposed to see a boost regardless.

[ZackM]

Just a heads up, I’m heading to Australia for 20 days starting tomorrow so I may not be able to post regular updates, but I will still be getting Alpha data every day even if I’m not posting it within a day or two.

[XXR vs XXR]

44 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Ant-Man boost from this given how close it is from release?

 

22 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

It'll be tough to disentangle, since the final Sunday is supposed to see a boost regardless.

 

I don't expect a noticeable boost apart from what's normal for but 110M+ people seeing it advertise that it's coming out in 5 days is the best possible scenario in terms of marketing.

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Just a heads up, I’m heading to Australia for 20 days starting tomorrow so I may not be able to post regular updates, but I will still be getting Alpha data every day even if I’m not posting it within a day or two.

Have fun down under. Dont worry about BO tracking. i can pick up the slack for you. 

[GOGODanca]

I imagine a lot of the extra viewers that the super bowl gets over the Bucs vs Cowboys fans are not in the typical marvel movie goer demo anyways so I don't expect some big uptick

[keysersoze123]

55 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

 

"Disney is always part of the pigskin show and expect no less from them this year as they’re poised to tout spots for Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Feb. 17), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (May 5), The Little Mermaid (May 26), Pixar’s Elemental (June 16) and possibly Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30) and Marvel Studios’ The Marvels (July 28). No spots for Disney+’s Secret Invasion are expected."

 

Ant-Man boost from this given how close it is from release?

Crazy thing is SB spot for Elemental. Is Disney hoping for an animation comeback with this and so they are willing splurge so much for just a 30 second ad(7m a pop if I am not wrong) !!! I hope it works for them

[Eric Loves Rey]

24 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Just a heads up, I’m heading to Australia for 20 days starting tomorrow so I may not be able to post regular updates, but I will still be getting Alpha data every day even if I’m not posting it within a day or two.

I hope you meet a lot of adorable cartoon dogs while you're there.

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/31/2023 at 4:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

699

2587

27.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

553

3106

17.80%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 4 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3031	304	32557	9.00%	15	189

 

AMCs sold	1990
Cinemarks sold	414
Regals sold	276
Harkins sold	250

 

0.828x Black Panther WF T-16 (23.19M)

0.434x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (15.61M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

718

2587

27.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

572

3106

18.42%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3127	96	32687	9.57%	15	190

 

AMCs sold	2148
Cinemarks sold	437
Regals sold	282
Harkins sold	260

 

0.437x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (15.73M)

 

Noticed another mistake with yesterday's count. Missed a keystroke on a number, so the total was off by about 100.

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/31/2023 at 4:24 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex [+4 days of sales]

 

T-16 Thursday(126 showings): 2664(+327)/36288

0.350x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (12.61M)

 

T-17 Friday(185 showings): 1715(+246)/54636

0.423x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (23.15M)

 

T-18 Saturday(186 showings): 1195(+158)/54893

0.529x Doctor Strange MoM T-18 (30.55M)

 

T-19 Sunday(180 showings): 384(+72)/52588

0.712x Doctor Strange MoM T-19 (27.71M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-15 Thursday(126 showings): 2755(+91)/36288

0.352x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (12.66M)

 

T-16 Friday(185 showings): 1798(+83)/54636

0.428x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (23.43M)

 

T-17 Saturday(186 showings): 1252(+57)/54893

0.535x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (30.93M)

 

T-18 Sunday(180 showings): 411(+27)/52588

0.738x Doctor Strange MoM T-18 (28.70M)