The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Come on man. Your doom posting just about every movie these days. You enjoy talking near every single release down?

I think you're mixing me up with someone else lol

[Joyous Legion]

BadOlCatMulder 🤔

[John Marston]

wait could Shazam open under 30m??

[Ronin46]

30 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I think you're mixing me up with someone else lol

 

Actually your right, my apologies. There are actually a couple who doom post almost everything. Your profile pic is similar to the person I was thinking of. I wont name them. Everyone kinda knows who these posters are by now I imagine (and they have just posted on this thread....)  

[Mulder]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

Actually your right, my apologies. There are actually a couple who doom post almost everything. Your profile pic is similar to the person I was thinking of. I wont name them. Everyone kinda knows who these posters are by now I imagine (and they have just posted on this thread....)  

It's no prob! I had a feeling.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

13 minutes ago, John Marston said:

wait could Shazam open under 30m??

At this point, yes. The reactions were all from nameless bloggers so they won't help. Warner seemingly not allowing critic reactions is a very bad sign. I know I've been comparing this to Dark Phoenix a lot, but it might ultimately open lower than that 

[Poseidon]

Mario actually always looked like it was a good bet to win the year. Those presales seem to confirm it. 

[cookie]

Shazam opens here in three days and 4/5 screenings in my town still don't have a single ticket sold, and our 500-seater has sold less than 25 tickets. This really is Dark Phoenix 2.0, isn't it?

Edited March 12, 2023 by cookie

[Joyous Legion]

49 minutes ago, John Marston said:

wait could Shazam open under 30m??

 

15 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Smh downgrading to a lower OW pic  

For context the old pic was M3gan

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

wait could Shazam open under 30m??

WB screwed up with Shazam 2 release date big time. Should have just released it originally in Dec for that sweet Christmas holiday cash. PLF cash is meaningless if you just open with $30m. Star Wars and Jumani proved that 2 big movies can coexist together in Dec, Shazam probably could have made twice as much in 2022 even against Avatar 2.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

36 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

WB screwed up with Shazam 2 release date big time. Should have just released it originally in Dec for that sweet Christmas holiday cash. PLF cash is meaningless if you just open with $30m. Star Wars and Jumani proved that 2 big movies can coexist together in Dec, Shazam probably could have made twice as much in 2022 even against Avatar 2.

I feel like Jumanji was the exception though. The big thing helping it was The Last Jedi being one of the most polarizing movies of modern cinema, which ultimately caused it to make a lot less money than The Force Awakens, and give Jumanji a whole lot more breathing room. Rise of Skywalker pleased no one, which was a huge boon for Jumanji 2. Sony knew what they were doing, and for once I applaud them for it.

 

Avatar 2 is the opposite of the more recent Star Wars movies. It's a big crowdpleaser, and would've ate into Shazam's performance big time. I don'T think the current date will help it much, as Warner's focusing hard on The Flash and has no time to waste with these Hamada lame ducks.

[JustLurking]

At this point I think Shazam was dead no matter where they put it. If there's no interest there's no interest.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

At this point I think Shazam was dead no matter where they put it. If there's no interest there's no interest.

Honestly...this was the bigger issue. Shazam always was going to have an uphill battle to climb with a sequel 4 years (Initially 3 years but) out from the original which while it was well-liked wasn't a cultural juggernaut or anything and kind of got lost in the noise that is the superhero film genre atm, in addition to barely making enough money to justify a sequel. I feel like the news of the incoming DC Reboot and kind of general confusion around that, in addition to Levi being kind of controversial recently has only hurt it more and more. 

[JustLurking]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Honestly...this was the bigger issue. Shazam always was going to have an uphill battle to climb with a sequel 4 years (Initially 3 years but) out from the original which while it was well-liked wasn't a cultural juggernaut or anything and kind of got lost in the noise that is the superhero film genre atm, in addition to barely making enough money to justify a sequel. I feel like the news of the incoming DC Reboot and kind of general confusion around that, in addition to Levi being kind of controversial recently has only hurt it more and more. 

I don't think Levi is big enough for anything he did to matter (and honestly novaxxers are like the only people still giving a fuck, everyone else has moved on).

 

DC reboot hurt this sure but I think it would only matter marginally. The DCEU failed at creating a connected organism people are excited about so the films kinda had to fend for themselves to begin with, and Shazam even moreso was on the outskirts of the DCEU, the first film not really connecting anywhere beyond a Black Adam reference and a 5 seconds superman cameo iirc.

 

At the end of the day people got asked to show up to Shazam for Shazam, and the answer seems pretty clear at this point...and the marketing strategy is terrible as well. Out of touch trailers, limited reactions, review embargo one day before release aren't helping this one bit, and at this point I doubt reviews will even be fresh. OS will probably do just as bad if not worse compared to the first one (china already looks disastrous for it) and the film will ultimately bomb.

 

Personally don't really care about most of WB's slate for the year, so I just hope those downscaled releases, poor marketing and whatnot aren't a sign of ehat we're getting for Dune 2. I kind of would like that to do well, lol.

[noobmaster69]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

wait could Shazam open under 30m??

not entirely impossible

Edited March 12, 2023 by noobmaster69

[cooldude97]

I would feel a lot worse for shazam if any of the footage shown was actually any good

[Ryan Reynolds]

18 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I feel like Jumanji was the exception though. The big thing helping it was The Last Jedi being one of the most polarizing movies of modern cinema, which ultimately caused it to make a lot less money than The Force Awakens, and give Jumanji a whole lot more breathing room. Rise of Skywalker pleased no one, which was a huge boon for Jumanji 2. Sony knew what they were doing, and for once I applaud them for it.

 

Avatar 2 is the opposite of the more recent Star Wars movies. It's a big crowdpleaser, and would've ate into Shazam's performance big time. I don'T think the current date will help it much, as Warner's focusing hard on The Flash and has no time to waste with these Hamada lame ducks.

Rise has 86% audience score and Jumanji has 87%, an unpopular star wars film is still liked by a lot, same as TLJ

[cooldude97]

11 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Rise has 86% audience score and Jumanji has 87%, an unpopular star wars film is still liked by a lot, same as TLJ

Having a nearly billion dollar drop compared to the first movie in the trilogy is pretty abysmal 

[Porthos]

On 3/11/2023 at 1:19 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	89	12253	13484	1231	9.13%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	142
Total Seats Sold Today	80

 

T-13 Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	28.52		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	10.73%		5.49m
JWD	45.47		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		4456	27.63%		8.19m
BA	126.26		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	27.39%		9.60m
A2	41.77		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	13.70%		7.10m
Scream 6	174.86		48	704		0/78	9156/9860	7.14%		3134	39.28%		9.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     262/3784  [6.92% sold]
Matinee:    44/1253  [3.51% | 3.57% of all tickets sold]

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	90	12301	13585	1284	9.45%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	101
Total Seats Sold Today	53

 

T-12 Comps

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	27.83		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	11.19%		5.36m
JWD	45.66		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		4456	28.82%		8.22m
BA	124.66		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	28.57%		9.47m
A2	40.97		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	14.29%		6.96m
Scream 6	175.17		29	733		0/78	9127/9860	7.43%		3134	40.97%		9.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     268/3784  [7.08% sold]
Matinee:    43/1253  [3.43% | 3.35% of all tickets sold]

[Borja9198]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

wait could Shazam open under 30m??

Around $35M at this point