The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Re: why June is so packed: it's because studios want those summer weekdays while people have time off and you're not going to get them if you go for an August release (when folks are distracted with schools starting back up, etc.). Looking at June from previous years, June '19 had 11 movies, '18 had 12, and '17 (when the schedule was lined up the same) had a total of 14 wide releases. This year June has...11 (or 12, in the unlikely event Harold & the Purple Crayon comes out June 30 as currently planned). It might be a lot, but the schedule is no more out of control than it was before the pandemic.

[Eric is Anxious]

On 5/6/2023 at 2:49 AM, I Am Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	771	20135	3.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp - T-13

0.982x of F9 (6.97M)

0.441x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.94M)

2.315x of Nope (14.82M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	797	20135	3.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp - T-12

0.942x of F9 (6.69M)

0.434x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.82M)

2.290x of Nope (14.66M)

[superheavysun]

On 5/2/2023 at 4:46 PM, MovieMan89 said:

Big disagree. The OW for GotG 2 adjusts past BP2 and MCU has gotten way more frontloaded since then. Zero reason this shouldn’t have pushed 200 on OW given a “healthy” MCU. The fact that we might get like half that OW just speaks volumes to how unhealthy of a stage the franchise is in now. 

GOTG 2 does not adjusts to BP2. GOTG 3 will be lucky to hit 120 now, not good.

[Eric is Anxious]

On 5/6/2023 at 2:56 AM, I Am Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	992	28586	3.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 80

 

Comp - T-20

2.703x of Sonic 2 (16.89M)

0.700x of Jurassic World: Dominion (12.61M)

0.715x of Avatar 2 (12.15M)

0.837x of Mario (26.54M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1040	28586	3.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp - T-19

2.593x of Sonic 2 (16.21M)

0.721x of Jurassic World: Dominion (12.98M)

0.708x of Avatar 2 (12.03M)

0.821x of Mario (26.02M)

[Porthos]

On 5/6/2023 at 2:34 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	26611	27710	1099	3.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

52

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	140.90		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		3737	29.41%		8.74m
Bats	25.93		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	9.35%		5.60m
TG:M	25.46		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	9.58%		5.03m
JWD	40.60		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	10.02%		7.31m
BA	112.72		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	24.45%		8.57m
Wick 4	89.28		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	20.17%		7.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	108.04		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4407	24.94%		8.80m
Fast X (adj)			52	1062		0/160	23288/24350	4.36%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     165/10118  [1.63% sold]
Matinee:    41/3517  [1.17% | 3.73% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	26545	27713	1168	4.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

69

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	143.84		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		3737	31.26%		8.92m
Bats	26.92		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	9.93%		5.82m
TG:M	25.32		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	10.18%		5.00m
JWD	41.54		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	10.65%		7.48m
BA	113.40		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	25.99%		8.62m
Wick 4	90.97		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	21.44%		8.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	110.19		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		4407	26.50%		8.98m
Fast X (adj)			63	1125		0/160	23225/24350	4.62%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     189/10118  [1.87% sold]
Matinee:    44/3517  [1.25% | 3.77% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

 

On 5/6/2023 at 2:35 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21550	22582	1032	4.57%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	66
Total Seats Sold Today	60

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	310.84		33	332		0/74	11116/11448	2.90%		3951	26.12%		19.43m
JWD	52.09		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	9.41%		9.38m
BA	205.58		76	502		0/142	21311/21813	2.30%		4494	22.96%		15.62m
Wick 4	142.34		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	18.94%		12.67m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       147/5716  [2.57% sold]
Matinee:       21/621  [3.38% | 2.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:          168/4329  [3.88% | 16.28% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.7024x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [13.70m]    

TLM = 0.82306x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [11.36m]
TLM = 0.52599x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [13.91m]   

 

========================

 

T-26:	59
T-25:	60
T-24:	59
T-23:	59
T-22:	63
T-21:	60
T-20:	60

 

Okay, this is starting to get a little freaky.

 

(in fact, that 63 exactly makes up for those three 59's )

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	21474	22579	1105	4.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	325.00		8	340		0/74	11108/11448	2.97%		3951	27.97%		20.31m
JWD	53.46		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	10.08%		9.62m
BA	200.91		48	550		0/146	21513/22063	2.49%		4494	24.59%		15.27m
Wick 4	143.13		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	20.28%		12.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        151/5716  [2.64% sold]
Matinee:       24/621  [3.86% | 2.17% of all tickets sold]
3D:            175/4329  [4.04% | 15.84% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.69983x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [13.68m]    
TLM = 0.79381x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [10.95m]    
TLM = 0.52478x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [13.88m]   

 

===============

 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Porthos

[poweranimals]

Curious why people decided to use Sonic 2 of all movies as a comp for LM.

Edited May 7, 2023 by poweranimals

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Curious why people decided to use Sonic 2 of all movies as a comp for LM.

family movie with appeal to adults who have nostalgia (for the animated movie/video game in case of sonic)

[jedijake]

I'm much more curious as to why Black Adam and John Wyck 4 are being used as comps for TLM.

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, superheavysun said:

GOTG 2 does not adjusts to BP2. GOTG 3 will be lucky to hit 120 now, not good.

I mean Gotg2 will adjust to ~178M in 2023 atp. I guess that’s technically not quite BP2, but substantively…

[Eric is Anxious]

45 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Curious why people decided to use Sonic 2 of all movies as a comp for LM.

Because it's the perfect one. Both are kids movies that will skew towards youngsters, both have established fanbases, both will have a large nonwhite audience. Like that's the perfect combo.

[M37]

4 hours ago, jedijake said:

I'm much more curious as to why Black Adam and John Wyck 4 are being used as comps for TLM.

 

5 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Curious why people decided to use Sonic 2 of all movies as a comp for LM.

Because it’s about trying to match pace to get a semi-accurate comp value from the early sales; a Goldilocks problem 

 

Mario & Minions both had ridiculous late sales/growth rate and just aren’t viable. Sonic is better, but (IMO) is probably going to overshoot, in that LM has bigger early sales and so probably can’t keep with growth in last 1-2 weeks (but possible it does)

 

There’s then big tentpoles - MCU, Batman, etc - which all had high volume early sale and therefore grew by a smaller % at the end, and will probably undershoot

 

So that leaves the middle group, brand name releases with decent but not massive early sales, and so higher late growth: JWD, BA, JW4, maybe TGM, etc. The audience won’t be at all similar, but the path the ticket sales take from now until final total may be close enough that they’re worth tracking 

Edited May 7, 2023 by M37

[keysersoze123]

I dont think smaller movies make any sense for Mermaid as there are some in  built audience for this. Mario would have been much better but it had no previews and so  no dice. I am still looking at Frozen 2 data as that definitely targeted similar base but that had a different release. Smaller previews release and huge sales over the weekend. Mermaid is still more frontloaded than that. We have wait until final week when numbers all hone in. 

[Tinalera]

Fast X 

Thurs May 18 and Fri May 19

Toronto and Montreal Canada(T-12)

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	22	372	4536	4908	0.0757
Fri	4	33	283	6447	6730	0.0420
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	18	127	5084	5211	0.0243
Fri	3	22	130	6673	6803	0.0191

 

Antman Quantum

 

I am still trying to figure out best way to do Multiplier comps for two cities each with a Thurs preview and Fri Number-to them in a way that Im not writing a tome. I might post the multipliers as a separate  entry.

 

Im just a simple person trying to make their way through the movie count Universe lol

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Dec 17 (taken Jan 27)

Toronto Ontario 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	1541	5532	7073	0.2178
	Fri	4	36	998	8529	9527	0.1047

 

 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Quebec	Thurs	4	18	860	3783	4643	0.1852
	Fri	4	23	623	5670	6293	0.0989

 

Total Seats Available diff

Tor Thr Tor Fri Mtl Thr Mtl Fri Fast X 4903 6730 5521 6803 Antman 3 7073 9527 4463 6293 Diff -2170 -2797 1058 510

 

 

EDIT: I didn't do GOTG, this was a big enough page just for Antman. Trying to figure how to keep smaller posts. Need to figure out how to condense it all more 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Tinalera

[Porthos]

Look, gonna be honest with y'all.  There are no good recent comps for TLM at the moment when it comes to comping final gross. 

 

Mario was an all day release (plus I didn't track it since it only had a smattering of midnight previews). 

It had a much stronger initial push than all other recent non-Mario family films.

Most CBMs won't have the final push that TLM should have.

 

One of the genres that is similar to family films when it comes to sales patterns is horror, but then we run into demo problems/R-rating ticket ATP differences.  Hell, I've been tempted to throw in Scream VI simply because it had a semi-unusual for horror pattern and thus might be interesting for a comp for TLM being frontloaded for a family film.

 

About the only halfway decent comp I probably have is JWD and that brings up a whole host of problems.

 

So rather than just have one comp, I went the scattershot route mostly for pace purposes, as @M37 noted.

 

If I had something better, I'd use it.  But I probably don't.

 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
*141	*1464	*28103	5.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.60
 

A small TC pulled all their showings for Fast X for now. Its going to throw off numbers. 36 seats sold today, not including the pulled showings 

 

COMPS

T-12

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.270x) ~$4.7M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION
 

FAST X

 

THURSDAY

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1491	28556	5.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

ATP - $13.60
 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.265x) ~$4.6M THUR

[ChipDerby]

Anyone have a list of all the MCU preview to OW multipliers? Or where I could compile the info?

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/6/2023 at 2:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2040	32751	6.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

The first slow day since ps started. GOTG3 is probably taking a lot of attention away from Mermaid right now

 

COMPS

T-19

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.427x) ~$7.5M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2050	32751	6.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-18

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.424x) ~$7.4M THUR

[Mulder]

Just pre-emptively, I think we should also assume that Little Mermaid will be one of the rare times the tracking here will be off by a bit. Lower or higher by a few million.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Just pre-emptively, I think we should also assume that Little Mermaid will be one of the rare times the tracking here will be off by a bit. Lower or higher by a few million.

Nah. By the time the release day comes we will be able to predict within few %. Its no rocket science once you have done this for a while and we track so much data now that its impossible to miss.