April 8th-10th Weekend Thread | $72m OW Sonic 2, biggest Paramount opener since 2014, $8.69m OW for AmbuLAnce, $6m+ for EEAAO

[CJohn]

10 hours ago, YourMother said:

Hmmm I wonder what type of holds it would need to get to 200m.

 

Let us assume a $70m OW at least, give or take an extra million or two.

 

April 8-10th: $70m (*1.39 for the dailies = $97.2m by Thursday the 14th)

April 15-17th: $38.5m/$46m (-45%, assuming Beasts underperforms that weekend and/or isn’t as large a family draw) (*1.6 for the dailies by Thursday the 21st = $159m)

April 22nd-24th: $18.1m (-53% because The Bad Guys is still family competition and screen loss) (*1.4 for the dailies = $184.3M total by Thursday the 28th)

April 29th-May 1st: $9.95m (-45%) (*1.4 for dailies by Thursday the 5th = $198.2m)

 

In order for this to be plausible, Sonic 2 must play like a family movie.

Going by the demo breakdown given by the trades maybe this won't happen since it is definitly playing closer to a MCU superhero movie.

Edited April 11, 2022 by CJohn

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Going by the demo breakdown given by the trades maybe this won't happen since it is definitly playing closer to a MCU superhero movie.

 

[kyrixos]

I really hope something changes about that 34% Sunday drop.

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Bruce Almighty or Liar Liar represent a dead type of blockbuster: Star-driven Comedys which break out in a huge way. Nowadays, comedys mostly flop right away or have to settle in the 80-120M region like Lost City.

his ones in his heyday weren’t just your average comedies though.  People came to just see his genius. Liar Liar and Bruce were clever, gimmicky ideas, but Carrey did extraordinary things. 
 

He’s one of those singular once in a generation comedy stars and a major reason why these Sonic films have resonated with a broad audience. 

[tracygee]

4 hours ago, KnucklesXXR said:

 

AMC's quarterly investment reports. AMC is the barometer for the domestic market at large. The Q4 2021 average ticket price (latest available quarter) was $11.50 while Q3 2017 (when Homecoming was released) came in at $9.80 and that's how we get 17%.


https://s25.q4cdn.com/472643608/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/FINAL-4Q-2021-Earnings-Release-20220301-1450-v.7-Clean.pdf

https://s25.q4cdn.com/472643608/files/doc_financials/2017/q3/Earnings-Release.pdf

Well US inflation from 2017 to now is 15.75% … so that’s hardly outrageous. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Going by the demo breakdown given by the trades maybe this won't happen since it is definitly playing closer to a MCU superhero movie.

Yeah, looks like it. Should still finish around 175m absolute worse case scenario but 200m could still be at play. Although I’m a bit confused on they don’t mention families, as 32% under 17 is confusing as I’m curious how the family spread is but maybe one of the number gods or Shawn know more about the demographics. Let me try a more tentpole-based run, using Shazam and Dick Pik (Detective Pikachu)

 

April 8th-14th: $92.5m ($71m*1.31)

April 15th-21st: $46.96m ($34.79m/$38.76m*1.35 (-51% as Easter helps) $139.46m total)

April 22nd-28th: $24.42m ($18.65m(-46.4%)*1.31 $163.8m total)

April 29th-May 5th: $13.33m  ($10.25m (-45%)*1.3 $177.63m total)

May 6th-May 12th: $5.2m ($4m (-61%)*1.3 182.83m)

 

Yep 200m is dead with the demographics.

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Yeah, looks like it. Should still finish around 175m absolute worse case scenario but 200m could still be at play. Although I’m a bit confused on they don’t mention families, as 32% under 17 is confusing as I’m curious how the family spread is but maybe one of the number gods or Shawn know more about the demographics. Let me try a more tentpole-based run, using Shazam and Dick Pik (Detective Pikachu)

 

April 8th-14th: $92.5m ($71m*1.31)

April 15th-21st: $46.96m ($34.79m/$38.76m*1.35 (-51% as Easter helps) $139.46m total)

April 22nd-28th: $24.42m ($18.65m(-46.4%)*1.31 $163.8m total)

April 29th-May 5th: $13.33m  ($10.25m (-45%)*1.3 $177.63m total)

May 6th-May 12th: $5.2m ($4m (-61%)*1.3 182.83m)

 

Yep 200m is dead with the demographics.

@CJohn Nevermind to our premature panic.

From The Hollywood Reporter: Nearly 60 percent of the audience were families. Until now, titles largely depending upon kids and parents have struggled to breakout because of the pandemic.

 

Also DHD:

The audience was made up of 27% parents, 31% kids and 42% general. So 58% families/42% general. It’s basically higher skewed towards families than the first one (51 general/49 families).

Edited April 11, 2022 by YourMother

[Flopped]

I know women - particularly older ones - are reluctant to go back to the theatre. But what about older men? I guess Top Gun will be telling. 

[Legion Again]

The fun thing about a movie appealing to 8 year old is you can often get 3 tickets from a household with only one interested viewer 😂

[CJohn]

19 minutes ago, YourMother said:

@CJohn Nevermind to our premature panic.

From The Hollywood Reporter: Nearly 60 percent of the audience were families. Until now, titles largely depending upon kids and parents have struggled to breakout because of the pandemic.

 

Also DHD:

The audience was made up of 27% parents, 31% kids and 42% general. So 58% families/42% general. It’s basically higher skewed towards families than the first one (51 general/49 families).

Now this is what I am looking for.

[vafrow]

40 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

his ones in his heyday weren’t just your average comedies though.  People came to just see his genius. Liar Liar and Bruce were clever, gimmicky ideas, but Carrey did extraordinary things. 
 

He’s one of those singular once in a generation comedy stars and a major reason why these Sonic films have resonated with a broad audience. 

 

He could make you laugh with nothing more than a frantic flailing of his limbs. 

[cannastop]

7 hours ago, Kalo said:

Dang! with an opening like that Sonic 2 has a very good chance of hitting $200m. the first "Family" film to do so since Frozen II. 

I wanted to see if Turning Red would do $300 million dom but we'll never know now...

[YM!]

I feel in a scenario where Sonic 2 is doing 71-73m OW, I think with the pull of Pixar and COVID-19 not hurting it as bad as Onward, I don’t see why Turning Red couldn’t have opened around the higher end of March animation, probably in between The Boss Baby ($50m) and Monsters Vs Aliens ($60m).

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, grim22 said:

I really wonder how much FB3 can make next weekend. I'm thinking in the 45M range but sub-40 wouldn't surprise me.

 

Sub 40 would effectively end the franchise. Hopefully FB3 doesn't end with sequel teases and instead feels like a closed off ending because FB4 may not be guaranteed.

I have it opening in the same area as Morbius, give or take a million on either side. Good Friday guarantees it'll be just as frontloaded. Wouldn't be surprised if it just flatlined ala Dark Phoenix though, especially when buzz already feels nonexistent (I have friends and family who are also big Harry Potter fans and have absolutely zero interest in seeing this).

[robertman2]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I feel in a scenario where Sonic 2 is doing 71-73m OW, I think with the pull of Pixar and COVID-19 not hurting it as bad as Onward, I don’t see why Turning Red couldn’t have opened around the higher end of March animation, probably in between The Boss Baby ($50m) and Monsters Vs Aliens ($60m).

Monsters vs Aliens hit 60m? wild lol

[YM!]

1 minute ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Monsters vs Aliens hit 60m? wild lol

I was 9 years old at the time, came out on my birthday and Ginormica stirred feelings inside me. Time flies lol.
 

Also I didn’t see it in 3D because kid me thought it was the awful red and blue glasses which is why I didn’t see Avatar in 3D as a kid and settled for 2D. It was until How to Train Your Dragon which I saw on my tenth birthday in 3D did I realize I missed out. Don’t worry, I made this up with my first IMAX film was Cars 2.

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

Monsters vs Aliens hit 60m? wild lol

Top 3 March OW baybee, ended Watchmen’s 3 week stay

[robertman2]

13 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I was 9 years old at the time, came out on my birthday and Ginormica stirred feelings inside me. Time flies lol.
 

Also I didn’t see it in 3D because kid me thought it was the awful red and blue glasses which is why I didn’t see Avatar in 3D as a kid and settled for 2D. It was until How to Train Your Dragon which I saw on my tenth birthday in 3D did I realize I missed out. Don’t worry, I made this up with my first IMAX film was Cars 2.

lmfao

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Top 3 March OW baybee, ended Watchmen’s 3 week stay

Watchmen movie stay losing lol

[CoolioD1]

i saw monsters vs aliens in cinemas literally just because it was the first movie that my local showed in the realD 3d. don't remember anything about it.

Edited April 11, 2022 by CoolioD1

[Legion Again]

JUST learned that futures trading of box office is banned… by the Onion Futures Act.