2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[stripe]

56 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

I understand where you're coming from but I can't agree.

 

Elemental has had some very anemic trailers that don't really sell the idea or make it seem like a theatrical event.

Flash is heavily connected to a cinematic universe that the audiences has basically given up on, stars an unpopular incarnation of a character (whose last major appearance was Justice League) and its only real selling point appeals mostly to older movie goers. 

Transformers might have enough time separate from the Bay films but idk if they have gotten the trust of audiences back, and the trailer didn't give the vibe of it being a true event film, which was a similar issue that Bumblebee ran into.

Strays & Blackening could be small hits (both trailers have played well with audiences I've been at), but with how tough it's been for comedies lately I feel like most people will wait for No Hard Feelings with the bigger star, like how last year more people went to Ticket To Paradise instead of Bros (horror comedies also just took a harsh hit with Renfield bombing which could be a bad sign for Blackening).

Boogeyman I admittedly forgot about and I actually agree, that can be a good sleeper hit.

 

I hope I'm wrong and we see a similar scenario to what we just had in March where most of these do well, so maybe it's the pessimist in me. But I'm just not feeling it.

 

I tend to be optimistic so maybe you're right. What would be disappointing for you with Elemental, Flash and Transformers?

I would be already satisfied with 200M / 275M / 125-150M for each of them

 

 

[AN9815]

I'd actually move The Marvels to Christmas and Trolls 3 to the first week of November. That would give more breathing room in November and another strong hit in December. I think Aquaman 2 is likely decreasing, question is how much, I don't think it'll be another Shazam 2 but I can see it making $200-250m. Then Wonka will probably replicate Mary Poppins Returns numbers at best and Migration will probably do similar numbers to Puss in Boots 2.  

 

November is packed. Dune 2 will most likely increase big time from the first one, Hunger Games prequel can have a lot of nostalgia if done well and with actual Hunger Games and Wish could be a big comeback for Disney.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

14 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

I tend to be optimistic so maybe you're right. What would be disappointing for you with Elemental, Flash and Transformers?

I would be already satisfied with 200M / 275M / 125-150M for each of them

 

 

 

Really just depends on the budgets. All of these films reportedly cost around $200M (Flash is rumored to be as expensive as nearly $300M) so we're looking at a minimum of a $500M worldwide take. Their domestic totals especially are gonna have to carry hard (around $125-150 leaning towards the latter for Transformers, and $200M plus for Flash and Elemental),  but the concern I have is that they're all gonna target similar audiences and subsequently eat into each other.

[Maggie]

Rank the SUMMER TOP 10

 

1 Indiana Jones

2 The Flash

3Guardians of the Galaxy

4 The Little Mermaid

5 Fast 10

6 Spiderman

7 MI:DR

8 Barbie

9 Oppenheimer

10 Transformers

Edited April 18, 2023 by Maggie

[thajdikt]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Rank the SUMMER TOP 10

 

1 Indiana Jones

2 The Flash

3Guardians of the Galaxy

4 The Little Mermaid

5 Spiderman

6 Mission IMpossible: DR

7 Barbie

8 Transformers

9 Oppenheimer

10 The Meg 2

1. The Flash

2. The Little Mermaid

3. Spider-Man 

4. GotG vol 3

5. Transformers

6. MI: 7

7. Fast X

8. Indy 5

9. Oppenheimer

10. Barbie

Edited April 18, 2023 by thajdikt

[stripe]

1. Indiana Jones

2. Mission Impossible

3. Guardians of the Galaxy

4, Flash

5. Little Mermaid

6. Spiderman

7. Elemental

8. Oppenheimer

9. Barbie

10. No hard feelings

11. Fast X

12. Transformers

[filmlover]

No Hard Feelings will post similar numbers to what the director's previous movie (Good Boys, $83M) made IMO.

[kayumanggi]

5 hours ago, stripe said:

1. Indiana Jones

2. Mission Impossible

3. Guardians of the Galaxy

4, Flash

5. Little Mermaid

6. Spiderman

7. Elemental

8. Oppenheimer

9. Barbie

10. No hard feelings

11. Fast X

12. Transformers

 

I think it's safe to say the TOP 10 of the summer are already on this list.

[Maggie]

 

[YM!]

23 hours ago, Maggie said:

Rank the SUMMER TOP 10

 

1 Indiana Jones

2 The Flash

3Guardians of the Galaxy

4 The Little Mermaid

5 Fast 10

6 Spiderman

7 MI:DR

8 Barbie

9 Oppenheimer

10 Transformers

1. Indiana Jones - 165m five day/450m
2. The Little Mermaid - 140m four day/400m
3. Guardians - 125m/350m
4. The Flash - 115m/325m
5. Mission Impossible - 100m/285m
6. Across the SpiderVerse - 75m/230m
7. Elemental - 50m/185m
8. Barbie - 45m/180m
9. Fast X - 80m/175m
10. Oppenheimer - 40m/140m

[Mickiland16]

On 4/18/2023 at 4:10 PM, Maggie said:

Rank the SUMMER TOP 10

 

1 Indiana Jones

2 The Flash

3Guardians of the Galaxy

4 The Little Mermaid

5 Fast 10

6 Spiderman

7 MI:DR

8 Barbie

9 Oppenheimer

10 Transformers

1. The Little Mermaid 

2. Indiana Jones 5 

3. Guardians of the Galaxy 3

4. The Flash 

5. Across the Spider-Verse 

6. MI: Dead Reckoning

7. Barbie 

8. Fast X 

9. Transformers 

10. Elemental 

[DisposedData]

On 4/18/2023 at 2:10 PM, Maggie said:

Rank the SUMMER TOP 10

 

1 Indiana Jones

2 The Flash

3Guardians of the Galaxy

4 The Little Mermaid

5 Fast 10

6 Spiderman

7 MI:DR

8 Barbie

9 Oppenheimer

10 Transformers

1. Indiana Jones: 375m 

 

2. Flash: 335m

 

3 The Little Mermaid: 325m 

 

4. Mission Impossible: 315m

 

5. Guardians of the Galaxy: 300m

 

6. Spidervers: 260m

 

7. Fast X: 200m

 

8. Transformers: 190m

 

9. Barbie: 175m

 

10. Elemental: 160m

[filmlover]

Indiewire predicting 12 movies this summer to hit $100M.

 

$300M+: Guardians of the Galaxy, Little Mermaid, Spider-Man, Indiana Jones

$200M+: Fast X, Elemental, The Flash, Mission: Impossible

$100M+: Transformers, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Haunted Mansion

 

Summer Movies 2023 Box Office, Ranked: We Predict 12 Over $100 Million | IndieWire

[Maggie]

I have Indy (or The Flash) winning summer. It worries me that Indy is so low on the poll

 

 

[poweranimals]

This is a tough one because I think a lot will depend on overall reviews and reception. Reception tends to be the hardest thing to predict. I originally thought Guardians 3 was a pretty big contender for the #1 spot but tracking has been very subpar and it doesn't seem to be getting better. I'm also not seeing the hype for Indy that I thought we would see. Then again, I didn't really see much hype for Top Gun 2 either. Although opening weekend wasn't exactly amazing. Spider-Verse seems to be winning most of the polls but the first one didn't exactly blow up the box office. Flash seems to have the most potential but it has some things working against it that could hold it back. Competition is also going to play a factor as well. Anyway, I decided to do the top 15:

 

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $450 million

2. The Flash - $400 million

3. Guardians of the Galaxy volume 3 - $375 million

4. Across the Spider-Verse - $350 million

5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part One - $325 million

6. Little Mermaid - $300 million

7. Barbie $275 million

8. Fast X - $240 million

9. Transformers: Rise of the Beast - $225 million

10. Oppenheimer - $175 million

11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - $150 million

12. Blue Beetle - $125 million

13. Haunted Mansion - $100 million

14. Elemental - $90 million

15. The Meg 2 - $60 million

Edited April 20, 2023 by poweranimals

[Mickiland16]

4 hours ago, Maggie said:

I have Indy (or The Flash) winning summer. It worries me that Indy is so low on the poll

 

 

 

18 hours ago, Mickiland16 said:

1. The Little Mermaid 

2. Indiana Jones 5 

3. Guardians of the Galaxy 3

4. The Flash 

5. Across the Spider-Verse 

6. MI: Dead Reckoning

7. Barbie 

8. Fast X 

9. Transformers 

10. Elemental 

With that poll in mind, now I'd say:

1. The Little Mermaid - $420M

2. The Flash - $330M

3. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - $300M

4. Across the Spider-Verse - $280M

5. Mission Impossible 7 - $280M

6. Indiana Jones 5 - $250M

7. Transformers - $200M

8. Barbie - $200M

9. Fast X - $170M

10. Elemental (still trusting on the reception) -$140M

The Little Mermaid is a family movie so being behind PG-13 movies isn't that surprising since kids doesn't vote (King of the Monsters and Men in black were ahead of Aladdin for example). The same could be said about Spider-Verse which is first but I have my doubts about how much of the votes is because of the MCU/Marvel fanbase (Far From Home was first on 2019). As for Indy...I don't think it's doomed but the last poll showed it 5th and Maverick was doing well if it comes to older audience so the answer to it being that low to me is that it just lost hype (may recover with Cannes though). 

[Flip]

On 4/18/2023 at 5:10 PM, Maggie said:

Rank the SUMMER TOP 10

 

1 Indiana Jones

2 The Flash

3Guardians of the Galaxy

4 The Little Mermaid

5 Fast 10

6 Spiderman

7 MI:DR

8 Barbie

9 Oppenheimer

10 Transformers

1 mission impossible 

2. Indiana Jones

3 Flash

4 GOTG

5 Spiderverse 

6 The Little Mermaid

7 Fast X

8 Blue Beetle

9 Oppenheimer

10 Transformers

[tonytr87]

25+ movies will gross over 100 mil. 28 or more would be a complete return to form. 

[kayumanggi]

On 4/12/2023 at 6:26 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Apr 07 - Apr 09 / $205,106,577

2022 / Apr 08 - Apr 10 / $118,700,008

 

WINS

2023: 12 weekends

2022: 02 weekends

 

year / weekend / overall gross

 

2023 / Apr 14 - Apr 16 / $147,039,572

2022 / Apr 15 - Apr 17 / $107,168,534

 

WINS

2023: 13 weekends

2022: 02 weekends

[kayumanggi]

On 4/12/2023 at 6:35 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | $224.7 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | $212.8 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

03 | $153.5 M | CREED III

04 | $148.5 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

05 | $104.4 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | $095.0 M | M3GAN

07 | $064.2 M | COCAINE BEAR

08 | $063.2 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

09 | $056.8 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

10 | $051.8 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

11 | $039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

12 | $035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

13 | $032.5 M | MISSING

14 | $032.1 M | PLANE

15 | $031.6 M | 65

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

3 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

2 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

1 - OTHERS

 

---

 

02 | 200M movies

05 | 100M movies

10 | 050M movies

 

2023 TOP 15 MOVIES

 

01 | 371.2 M | THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE

02 | 212.9 M | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

03 | 162.5 M | JOHN WICK: CHAPTER IV

04 | 155.5 M | CREED III

05 | 107.2 M | SCREAM VI

 

06 | 095.0 M | M3GAN

07 | 076.2 M | DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES

08 | 064.4 M | COCAINE BEAR

09 | 057.5 M | SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS

10 | 052.0 M | JESUS REVOLUTION

 

11 | 039.3 M | 80 FOR BRADY

12 | 035.7 M | AIR

13 | 035.4 M | KNOCK AT THE CABIN

14 | 032.5 M | MISSING

15 | 032.1 M | PLANE

 

---

 

1 - DISNEY

3 - LIONSGATE

3 - PARAMOUNT

1 - SONY

4 - UNIVERSAL

1 - WARNER BROS.

2 - OTHERS

 

---

 

01 | 300M movies

02 | 200M movies

05 | 100M movies

10 | 050M movies

Edited April 21, 2023 by kayumanggi