TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, Gavin Feng said:

TG2 > JW3

 

31 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

500M here we go

 

please

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

is 53m enough to bring down Iron Man?

[Joyous Legion]

33 minutes ago, DS2HaterLegion Confirmed said:

A+? 620 or bust 

The worst finish for a 4000+ wide live-action A+ is 3rd place DOM 

[Grebacio]

Top Gun Maverick surpassing Doctor Strange in Multiverse of Madness gives flashbacks of Jurassic World surpassing Avengers Age Of Ultron

[XXR & Friends]

20 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

multiplier seems low, this movie is bringing people to theaters that have not been in one for 5-10 years

 

Definitely isn't low. Only 5 films in history have been PG13 and opened over $100M then gone on to do at least 3.3x (The Dark Knight, The Force Awakens, Rogue One , Wonder Woman and Black Panther). 

[keysersoze123]

More than Cinemascore, I want to see post trak numbers. I am not a big fan of small sampling used by cinemascore. 

[LonePirate]

8 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

multiplier seems low, this movie is bringing people to theaters that have not been in one for 5-10 years

Not since TFA has there been a movie like TGM which has tapped into a movie going audience that hasn't attended a movie in years. While TGM won't sniff TFA's gross, it stands an excellent chance to match its multiplier and may even exceed it. The nostalgia factor, the stellar reviews and WOM, its appeal to ages 14-80+, and the absolute lack of significant adult appealing flicks will allow it to draw audiences all summer long.

 

There is a Regal near me which has several screens in the complex restricted to ages 21 and over due to alcohol sales. It's playing 13 times prior to 9 PM in this block of screens on Saturday. All 13 of those showtimes are already 85%+ full. There are plenty of seats available in almost all of the non-age restricted  showings on Saturday.

[YM!]

Paramount has had one of their best years in a while. Scream, Jackass, Lost City, Sonic and now Maverick have all been big hits although their slate for the second half of the year is pretty barren. (I think Secret Headquarters is either Paramount+ fodder or opens later this year.)

 

2023 should be a huge year too. Mission Impossible could go ham and do 300m domestic, Dungeons could be a new franchise as could the family film IF (though I think either it or Trolls 3 should open against Blade for a more healthy environment as counterprogramming (like Strange 1 and Trolls) instead of opening against each other), Scream 2 (or 6) will be a nice horror hit as should Quiet Place. Animation wise, Ninja Turtles if it has a small budget could drum up a nice profit as could Tiger’s Apprentice and Paw Patrol 2 (Under The Boardwalk is still happening as David Soren said production is nearly done so if in the likely case it’s not Paramount+ fodder, it could be a 2023 film). Babylon should also make the majority of the bulk gross in 2023 too.

Edited May 28, 2022 by YourMother

[Ryan Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Top Gun Maverick surpassing Doctor Strange in Multiverse of Madness gives flashbacks of Jurassic World surpassing Avengers Age Of Ultron

followed by TFA record breaking run, may get a repeat with Avatar 2 run

[Joyous Legion]

I mean... It's not Xmas. Tfa word have legged much worse with a mdw open.

[excel1]

22 minutes ago, picores said:

This is one of the most shocking OD/OW...ever?

 

No way, but it is is a very nice breakout.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

Not since TFA has there been a movie like TGM which has tapped into a movie going audience that hasn't attended a movie in years. While TGM won't sniff TFA's gross, it stands an excellent chance to match its multiplier and may even exceed it. The nostalgia factor, the stellar reviews and WOM, its appeal to ages 14-80+, and the absolute lack of significant adult appealing flicks will allow it to draw audiences all summer long.

 

There is a Regal near me which has several screens in the complex restricted to ages 21 and over due to alcohol sales. It's playing 13 times prior to 9 PM in this block of screens on Saturday. All 13 of those showtimes are already 85%+ full. There are plenty of seats available in almost all of the non-age restricted  showings on Saturday.

TFA is not a good comp as that opened during holidays. BO pattern is different. But huge WOM can even have 4x multi. Wonder Woman did it. Black Panther had crazy multi after a humongous OW. I am thinking 500m+ domestic after 160m+ 4 day weekend is possible. That should be sufficient to win the summer as well. 

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

TFA is not a good comp as that opened during holidays. BO pattern is different. But huge WOM can even have 4x multi. Wonder Woman did it. Black Panther had crazy multi after a humongous OW. I am thinking 500m+ domestic after 160m+ 4 day weekend is possible. That should be sufficient to win the summer as well. 

 

 

Let's not put the cart before the horse. JWD and T:L&T are both supremely capable of exceeding any numbers TGM puts up. Not saying they will, mind you, but lets give it at least 6 weeks before calling that. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, T-ReXXR said:

 

 

Let's not put the cart before the horse. JWD and T:L&T are both supremely capable of exceeding any numbers TGM puts up. Not saying they will, mind you, but lets give it at least 6 weeks before calling that. 

its just a opinion. I dont see JWD that big and I am not buying 60% increase for Thor 4 after Ragnarok had a big increase. Plus we have too many MCU movies these days. 

 

That said I have been wrong more often than not. So its just an opinion. 

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, picores said:

This is one of the most shocking OD/OW...ever?

 

Not to try to shill but... Maybe if you hadn't been checking out BOT's Tracking thread or reading @Shawn's articles over at BOP, sure.  But this was certainly a possibility according to ticket tracking (our Tracking thread) as well as Shawn's metrics he has access to.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Not to try to shill but... Maybe if you hadn't been checking out BOT's Tracking thread or reading @Shawn's articles over at BOP, sure.  But this was certainly a possibility according to ticket tracking (our Tracking thread) as well as Shawn's metrics he has access to.

 

To rephrase, if anyone had told us this would happen a month or two ago, I think nearly all of us (with the notable exception of EC who is the true prophet regarding this flick) would have been... extremely skeptical.

 

But as soon as those first day ticket sales came out of Denver and Sacramento?  Well, Let's just say that with every passing day seeing something special happening this MDW became more and more of a possibility.

Edited May 28, 2022 by Porthos

[eddyxx]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm very happy for Kosinski, he have one of the most interesting visual styles of the past decade and finally get his deserved acknowledge.

 

He have another movie coming on June 17 starring Chris Hemsworth and Miles Teller, it's a psychological thriller with some weird humor. 

 

It's from Netflix so it's always hard to know what to expect until it's released, but he get a great team for this one too for the script / cinematography / soundtrack / editing. 

 

Hoping he will keep the good momentum, i found the trailer very promising.

 

 

 

 

 

Tron:Legacy is so under rated. It looks better than most blockbusters these days.

[misterpepp]

An A CinemaScore for Bob's Burgers. Great week for word-of-mouth on the new releases.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Not to try to shill but... Maybe if you hadn't been checking out BOT's Tracking thread or reading @Shawn's articles over at BOP, sure.  But this was certainly a possibility according to ticket tracking (our Tracking thread) as well as Shawn's metrics he has access to.

We sort of meltdown days sometime weeks ahead of release now 

[MattW]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

To rephrase, if anyone had told us this would happen a month or two ago, I think nearly all of us (with the notable exception of EC who is the true prophet regarding this flick) would have been... extremely skeptical.

 

But as soon as those first day ticket sales came out of Denver and Sacramento?  Well, Let's just say that with every passing day seeing something special happening this MDW became more and more of a possibility.

With the coverage that the tracking thread gives no more jurassic world or american sniper level surprises.

 

Back in 2015 is was just showtimes and sellout counts for previews only. Though if I remember right sometime after that the fandango back end data scrape gave the best measure of overall presales, but that only lasted a few months before it got shut down.