Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[VanillaSkies]

Just back from seeing Top Gun in IMAX. 
That’s some classic movie magic right there. It deserves every dollar it’s going to get. 
 

I expect it to play well over the summer as the older audiences are notorious for waiting to see a film. This definitely needs to re-release in IMAX in August. 

[LonePirate]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

do studios have to pay cinemas for expansions? cant see how sony would have lost money otherwise

 

With digital distribution nowadays, the largest cost to Sony would likely have been the time and effort negotiating and arranging the expansion with theaters. Maybe they had some promotional costs as well. I am sure the theaters are receiving a lot more than their normal cut for this expansion but the grosses are just awful. Each screen playing Morbius is one not playing TGM or DS2, which combined with concessions, undoubtedly reduced revenue for the theaters. Nobody benefitted from the expansion.

[krla]

If Sat is 35, then a 27 Sunday will have TGM beating MoM's 10 day. Will TGM hit 400m before MoM?

[titanic2187]

11 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

With digital distribution nowadays, the largest cost to Sony would likely have been the time and effort negotiating and arranging the expansion with theaters. Maybe they had some promotional costs as well. I am sure the theaters are receiving a lot more than their normal cut for this expansion but the grosses are just awful. Each screen playing Morbius is one not playing TGM or DS2, which combined with concessions, undoubtedly reduced revenue for the theaters. Nobody benefitted from the expansion.

Sony gave V2 and Uncharted some serious reexpansion to both V2($405k) and Uncharted ($563k). By comparison, Morbius seem to have the worst bump among all. But I don't think this expansion is a lose for theater. This weekend all movies likely to make around 125m overall, down 25% from the same weekend in 2019. Factoring inflation, the attendance likely drop even further which in turn implying the occupancy rate is still far from optimal and should have enough room for movies to grab seat. 

[Liiviig 1998]

Just finished watching the original. Finale felt tucked on but other than that liked it.

Great opening sequence and love all the aerial sequences  and dog fights. Characters are alot of fun and loved goose maverick relationship.

Really cool soundtrack.

Yeah it has the 80s cheese which I was fine with.

8/10.

 

Incredible weekend for TGM.

Total should be 290M+ end of weekend.

Playing like aladdin gets it to around 560m. 600m can happen but will go with Rouge one numbers(532m) for now.

 

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, krla said:

If Sat is 35, then a 27 Sunday will have TGM beating MoM's 10 day. Will TGM hit 400m before MoM?

290m+

Expecting 40-45m weekdays

45-55m 3rd weekend

375-395m by end of 3rd weekend.

 

It will be tight .

Edited June 5, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[dxmatrixdt]

so was TG2 the same movie that was made over two years ago?  do they just keep it a secret that long?  do they change it?  how do costs go up and did costs go up for this one?  I think costs went up for NTTD.  

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

290m+

Expecting 35-40m weekdays

48-60m 3rd weekend

375-390m by end of 3rd weekend.

 

It will be tight .

TG will probably be hit hard next week when JW releases and takes a lot of the higher end screens. Anecdotally, the theater chain i work for has 2 locations in the metro, one has 'Imax' (that used to be IMAX we just stopped paying for the brand so it's not that anymore but nothing else changed) and the other doesn't. Normally the one without IMAX wins handily to the tune of a few hundred tickets a day on busy weekends. That's completely flipped on its head since TG came out. Though to be fair the other theater is also in an area with a lot more older people so ehh. 

[eddyxx]

 

[Tokugennumataka]

Fri - 25M

Sat - 35M

Sun - 28M

Mon - 12M

Tue - 13M

Wed - 11M

Thu - 9M (340M) 

Fri - 13.5M 

Sat - 19M

Sun - 15.5M (388M). Conservative estimate. On the way to 550M+. 

[Liiviig 1998]

6 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

TG will probably be hit hard next week when JW releases and takes a lot of the higher end screens. Anecdotally, the theater chain i work for has 2 locations in the metro, one has 'Imax' (that used to be IMAX we just stopped paying for the brand so it's not that anymore but nothing else changed) and the other doesn't. Normally the one without IMAX wins handily to the tune of a few hundred tickets a day on busy weekends. That's completely flipped on its head since TG came out. Though to be fair the other theater is also in an area with a lot more older people so ehh. 

That's why put a large range . 60m is just in case JWD underperforms.

Drop will  probably be 45-50%. Going with 48(-45%)  but the kind of film TGM is and the WOM it has ,it's unpredictable

 

 

But two big films can survive alongside each other pretty well.

[Tokugennumataka]

Best second weekend holds for $100M+ openers:
1. Top Gun: Maverick - -30.5%
2. Shrek 2 - -33.2%
3. Frozen 2 - -34.0%
4. Spider-Man - -37.8%
5. Star Wars: TFA - -39.8%
6. The Jungle Book - -40.4%
7. Wonder Woman - -43.3%
8. Black Panther - -44.7%
9. Finding Dory - -46%
10. Alice in Wonderland - -46. 0%
11. Toy Story 3 - -46.2%
12. Harry Potter and Goblet of Fire - -46.7%
13. Beauty and the Beast - -48.3%
14. Jurassic World - -49.0%
15. SW: Revenge of the Sith - -49.1%
16. THG: Mockingjay 2 - -49.3%
17. Marvel's The Avengers - -50.3%
18. The Batman - -50.4%
19. Toy Story 4 - -50.6%
20. It - -51.3%
21. The Secret Life of Pets - -51.3%
22. The Dark Knight - -52.5%
23. THG: Catching Fire - -53.1%
24. THG: Mockingjay 2 - -53.3%
25. Thor: Ragnarok - -53.5%

[Xavier]

Isn’t it a bad sign that the review embargo for JWD lifts the day before release? TGM built excitement (also) through the early reviews. This movie is indeed a lightning in a bottle.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Xavier said:

Isn’t it a bad sign that the review embargo for JWD lifts the day before release? TGM built excitement (also) through the early reviews. This movie is indeed a lightning in a bottle.

 

I mean its an open secret that Dominion will get bad reviews. But Universal lifted the embargo for Fallen Kingdom early in 2018 and while it didnt really harm it, it also certainly didnt help that movie.

 

Imo, reviews wont play a big role for Dominions OW, but why release the bad press early when you can delay it? I would have done the same if i were Universal.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, dxmatrixdt said:

so was TG2 the same movie that was made over two years ago?  do they just keep it a secret that long?  do they change it?  how do costs go up and did costs go up for this one?  I think costs went up for NTTD.  

Editor claimed he locked the picture on July 2020, so I guess it's the same movie.

[Krissykins]

27 minutes ago, Xavier said:

Isn’t it a bad sign that the review embargo for JWD lifts the day before release? TGM built excitement (also) through the early reviews. This movie is indeed a lightning in a bottle.

I think over the past 5 years or so, so many big sequels have been doing this that it doesn’t really matter anymore. 
 

Plus, it’s 88% with 8 reviews on RT just now, so is the embargo late or are the screenings late? 

[wildphantom]

We all know what number Paramount are going to estimate later…..
 

 

 

[Juby]

19 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

400M? Make that 500M at this point.

 

Don't be so sure about that. The Batman suppose to be $400m locked after its 2nd weekend and see how this ends up. For now, if we compare TGM performance with B&tB and TDK, I would say $485m is locked, nothing more. But ofc $500m and even $600m is possible if Tom hendle well next two weekends.

[Joyous Legion]

29 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Best second weekend holds for $100M+ openers:
1. Top Gun: Maverick - -30.5%
2. Shrek 2 - -33.2%
3. Frozen 2 - -34.0%
4. Spider-Man - -37.8%
5. Star Wars: TFA - -39.8%
6. The Jungle Book - -40.4%
7. Wonder Woman - -43.3%
8. Black Panther - -44.7%
9. Finding Dory - -46%
10. Alice in Wonderland - -46. 0%
11. Toy Story 3 - -46.2%
12. Harry Potter and Goblet of Fire - -46.7%
13. Beauty and the Beast - -48.3%
14. Jurassic World - -49.0%
15. SW: Revenge of the Sith - -49.1%
16. THG: Mockingjay 2 - -49.3%
17. Marvel's The Avengers - -50.3%
18. The Batman - -50.4%
19. Toy Story 4 - -50.6%
20. It - -51.3%
21. The Secret Life of Pets - -51.3%
22. The Dark Knight - -52.5%
23. THG: Catching Fire - -53.1%
24. THG: Mockingjay 2 - -53.3%
25. Thor: Ragnarok - -53.5%

I think the only adjusted 100M+* opens with a better drop than F2 are:

Avatar -2% (lol)

How 4he Grinch stole Christmas -7 (Thanksgiving) 

TLK 1994 -16

TPM -21% (wed open, mdw 2nd)

Two towers -21 (wed open, Xmas holidays)

JP1 -23%

Batman -26

Monsters Inc -27

American Sniper -28

Incredibles -29

Rotk -30 (wed open, Xmas holidays)

Independence Day -30

Nemo -34

 

* Using 2019 ATP +10% again

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

Don't be so sure about that. The Batman suppose to be $400m locked after its 2nd weekend and see how this ends up. For now, if we compare TGM performance with B&tB and TDK, I would say $485m is locked, nothing more. But ofc $500m and even $600m is possible if Tom hendle well next two weekends.

400 definitely wasn't locked after Batman wknd 2, never quite understood that chatter. 500 is actually locked here -- even following sniper gets there pretty comfortably and sniper semi-collapsed after d10.