WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Liiviig 1998]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Thanks, so it will be above $300M-$350M+

350M at least.

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$125M OW

 

Under $250M (closing) ??

Nah not that bad with summer weekdays and a (relatively) backloaded OW. Maybe 2.5-2.65 or something

[Legion Again]

125 to 310 could be possible I guess, expecting more 350ish

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Looking Like B/B-

 

But still maintain walk-ups this weekend should be good enough. 

 

 

JW - around  250% Fri jump 

FK - around 182% Fri jump

 

Thinking 140-150% fri jump for this due to previews starting at 3pm.

 

Father's day weekend/independence day and it tapping into a portion of that family demographic should help it's legs abit

 

140-145m OW ,380M+ DOM.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah. This is where I'm at too. 

[IronJimbo]

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DUUUUU DAAAAAAAAA DUUUUUUUUU DAAAAAAAAA DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

DAAAAAAA DAAAAAAAAAAAH DAAAAAAAAAAH DUUU DAH

 

thread theme

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, awkwardaardvark said:

Alright, let’s calm down now. So long as the demand is still there and Dominion’s WOM is mixed, it’ll likely touch 600 million. 
 

Besides, if it even grosses only 500 million stateside, it’s crossing a billion. TG’s holds in markets where Dominion’s already been released are generally fantastic. International should be at atleast 520 million or so with SK. 

 

600m? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

I'm still working on weekend showtime report, but I had a look at yesterday for Top Gun since the drop was so heavy.  It had a full slate of PLF screens for two weeks until yesterday, so this should have been at least partially expected (especially with a 17m+ preview for JW3).  Here's the PLF breakdown for yesterday:

 

TG:M

IMAX - 273 shows in 233 theaters (80% of these were before 3pm)

Dolby - 280 shows

D-Box - 260 shows

XD - 163 shows

RPX - 128 shows

 

JW:D

IMAX - 844 shows in 358 theaters

3D - 3,333 shows in 1,638 theaters

Dolby - 520 shows

D-Box - 399 shows

XD - 474 shows

RPX - 236 shows

 

For the full weekend, TG:M is looking at 615 PLF shows, most of which are Dolby (531). Last weekend, that number was 12,645.  That's a pretty significant hit for a movie that is selling so well on PLF screens.  As long as the people are still coming, the main issue will be lower ticket prices for standard showings.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Verified Audience at RT is often overblown here but it being already at 79% with the early rush being overwhelming fan driven is pretty surprising.

[M37]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

I still don't buy the poor WOM for JWD. People often overreact to early verified scores at RT.
Remember when DS2 opened? Online noise had people thinking it would even miss 380M DOM

 

I remember also the overreactions towards JWFK, and then the legs were not bad. This is a movie/saga that aims to an audience less vulnerable to online noise.

I think it depends on why: if it’s cheesy and fun but not “good”, it won’t matter much, but if the perception is boring and/or convoluted, or that audiences felt they were misled by “finale” marketing (a la Strange), then it can have a much greater negative impact 

 

And I have a feeling it’s more of the latter two driving reviews down 

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Verified Audience at RT is often overblown here but it being already at 79% with the early rush being overwhelming fan driven is pretty surprising.

Fan Driven

 

Jurassic World franchise 

 

Choose 1

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Fan Driven

 

Jurassic World franchise /

 

Choose 1

You expect the the hardcore fans to enjoy it less than casual fans? I don't. Or, did I misunderstand?

[THUNDER BIRD]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

You expect the the hardcore fans to enjoy it less than casual fans? I don't. Or, did I misunderstand?

What I'm saying is that i don't think it's much Fan driven at the first place.

 

 

[superduperm]

I hate to be that annoying guy talking about the thing nobody is thinking about, but Top Gun’s Thursday number is bumming me out.

 

Even with JWD and the loss of premium screens, I thought $10M was a reasonable expectation. A 20% Wednesday-to-Thursday drop is already hefty on its own. A 30% drop though? That might be another record, but in the wrong direction this time, unfortunately.

 

Here’s to hoping this is the absolute worst of it and we’ll see at least standard Friday/Saturday increases and Sunday drops from here on out.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I'm still working on weekend showtime report, but I had a look at yesterday for Top Gun since the drop was so heavy.  It had a full slate of PLF screens for two weeks until yesterday, so this should have been at least partially expected (especially with a 17m+ preview for JW3).  Here's the PLF breakdown for yesterday:

 

TG:M

IMAX - 273 shows in 233 theaters (80% of these were before 3pm)

Dolby - 280 shows

D-Box - 260 shows

XD - 163 shows

RPX - 128 shows

 

JW

IMAX - 844 shows in 358 theaters

3D - 3,333 shows in 1,638 theaters

Dolby - 520 shows

D-Box - 399 shows

XD - 474 shows

RPX - 236 shows

 

For the full weekend, TG:M is looking at 615 PLF shows, most of which are Dolby (531). Last weekend, that number was 12,645.  That's a pretty significant hit for a movie that is selling so well on PLF screens.  As long as the people are still coming, the main issue will be lower ticket prices for standard showings.

Also, for a walk-up heavy film that's doing ~$150M, there will be a fair number of sell-outs, and TG2 is a strong second choice option given the WOM

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, superduperm said:

I hate to be that annoying guy talking about the thing nobody is thinking about, but Top Gun’s Thursday number is bumming me out.

 

Even with JWD and the loss of premium screens, I thought $10M was a reasonable expectation. A 20% Wednesday-to-Thursday drop is already hefty on its own. A 30% drop though? That might be another record, but in the wrong direction this time, unfortunately.

 

Here’s to hoping this is the absolute worst of it and we’ll see at least standard Friday/Saturday increases and Sunday drops from here on out.

Losing all those PLF’s AND having a massive event movie opening will have an effect on what ticket people will buy. Bound to. I thought the Thursday number was very solid personally. 
 

the biggest hit it will take will be this weekend. Then it’s plain sailing as far as a rhythm of hold we’ll be able to read for the weeks ahead. 

[Eraserheadz]

It gives me no pleasure to report that JWD basically tanked at my theater last night. 594 admits and Top Gun nearly tied it for the day. To offer a comparison, The Batman's Thursday here was 947. That was without any schools out and another big movie to prop up the numbers. Hopefully things get better for it on the weekend but more than a few guests seemed to not care for it. 

[Yandereprime101189]

16 minutes ago, superduperm said:

I hate to be that annoying guy talking about the thing nobody is thinking about, but Top Gun’s Thursday number is bumming me out.

 

Even with JWD and the loss of premium screens, I thought $10M was a reasonable expectation. A 20% Wednesday-to-Thursday drop is already hefty on its own. A 30% drop though? That might be another record, but in the wrong direction this time, unfortunately.

 

Here’s to hoping this is the absolute worst of it and we’ll see at least standard Friday/Saturday increases and Sunday drops from here on out.

 

I hope Jurassic eats it.

 

But that's just my Tom Cruise dislike talking. 😛

Edited June 10, 2022 by Yandereprime101189

[AJG]

 

38 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Verified Audience at RT is often overblown here but it being already at 79% with the early rush being overwhelming fan driven is pretty surprising.

 

It's a disaster.

 

If it hits 75% it's likely to translate into a B- CinemaScore.

[Yandereprime101189]

Fallen Kingdom has a 48% all audience score, Jurassic World has a 78% all audience score. Granted, that's been bult up over the years.

 

Verified audience has gone back to 80% (unless the site hasn't refreshed for me), all audience 72%

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Fallen Kingdom has a 48% all audience score, Jurassic World has a 78% all audience score. Granted, that's been bult up over the years.

 

Verified audience has gone back to 80% (unless the site hasn't refreshed for me), all audience 72%

I wouldn't at all compare the RT audience scores of movies that have been released for years and years to a movie that's been released for not even a full day yet. Early audience scores always start high then eventually dip. Currently I see JWF at 79 Verified and 72 All on RT.