WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Ryan Reynolds]

verified still dropping at 80% , not good

[Legion Again]

70s is inevitable. That's Morbiusville

[EmeraldWitch]

Finished seeing JWD just now. Quite a weak movie imo, on pair with FK below JW which is an average movie at best. Fast, thrilling action packed but it's not a dinosaur movie one would expect at all. I think WOM will be mixed.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I'm more curious about the second weekend drop for Dominion than its opening weekend. That 80% verified audience score on RT is utterly dreadful for a blockbuster. Are we about to see another legendary 70% drop in the vein of Morbius?

 

Top Gun 2's sophomore frame is going to come way under this forum's expectations. Posting that far-too-dreamy 70M number was a mistake on @EmpireCity's end in hindsight. 600M domestically is looking unlikely now, but it should still pass the half-billion mark with ease. $1B is still possible but not a guarantee with all the competition it has to face now. It's a shame it's Colin "dead kid training his mom to become a fucking assassin is cinema" Trevorrow's latest disappointment that Maverick's losing its PLF screens to.

[wildphantom]

Considering the loss of PLF/screens, Maverick’s Thursday number is just 100% math at this point. Attendance was surely flat from what it did Wednesday, so I see no cause for any kind of lowering of where its total might end up. 
 

As long as the demand is there to see it and theatres can meet that demand then it’s in amazing shape. It’s not gone anywhere. Just now a little cheaper on average to now see - hence it’ll take the surcharge hit this weekend, then stabilise. 

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, CloneWars said:

I saw this in Dolby st 7:30 in a relatively busy theater, and it wasn't even half full. TGM was at 100% capacity when I saw it opening Thursday night. Yah, this doesn't bode well 

 

Looks like Mickey's Law is back on the menu, boys.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm more curious about the second weekend drop for Dominion than its opening weekend. That 80% verified audience score on RT is utterly dreadful for a blockbuster. Are we about to see another legendary 70% drop in the vein of Morbius?

 

 

Far too early to tell, could be closer to Doctor Strange 2’s -67%. 
 

Have summer weekdays kicked in the US yet? 

[Tokugennumataka]

Thu - 17

Fri - 45

Sat - 49

Sun - 40

Mon - 18

Tue - 17

Wed - 12

Thu - 10

Fri - 15

Sat - 21

Sun - 19

-64% on second weekend imo

[stripe]

I still don't buy the poor WOM for JWD. People often overreact to early verified scores at RT.
Remember when DS2 opened? Online noise had people thinking it would even miss 380M DOM

 

I remember also the overreactions towards JWFK, and then the legs were not bad. This is a movie/saga that aims to an audience less vulnerable to online noise.

[awkwardaardvark]

2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm more curious about the second weekend drop for Dominion than its opening weekend. That 80% verified audience score on RT is utterly dreadful for a blockbuster. Are we about to see another legendary 70% drop in the vein of Morbius?

 

Top Gun 2's sophomore frame is going to come way under this forum's expectations. Posting that far-too-dreamy 70M number was a mistake on @EmpireCity's end in hindsight. 600M domestically is looking unlikely now, but it should still pass the half-billion mark with ease. $1B is still possible but not a guarantee with all the competition it has to face now. It's a shame it's Colin "dead kid training his mom to become a fucking assassin is cinema" Trevorrow's latest disappointment that Maverick's losing its PLF screens to.

Alright, let’s calm down now. So long as the demand is still there and Dominion’s WOM is mixed, it’ll likely touch 600 million. 
 

Besides, if it even grosses only 500 million stateside, it’s crossing a billion. TG’s holds in markets where Dominion’s already been released are generally fantastic. International should be at atleast 520 million or so with SK. 

Edited June 10, 2022 by awkwardaardvark

[ThomasNicole]

26 minutes ago, stripe said:

I still don't buy the poor WOM for JWD. People often overreact to early verified scores at RT.
Remember when DS2 opened? Online noise had people thinking it would even miss 380M DOM

 

I remember also the overreactions towards JWFK, and then the legs were not bad. This is a movie/saga that aims to an audience less vulnerable to online noise.

It's a good way to guess Cinemascore. 

 

Everyone predict A- / B+ for DS2 based on verified RT scores, it got a B+ 

 

JW is doing even worse, so probably B+ or even an B is coming. 

 

Maybe it won't have any significant impact, but it won't help either.

[The Dark Alfred]

1 billion a lock. It still has Korea to open which brings minimum 50m, could go as high as 75m.

[Krissykins]

Past entries on Cinemascore:

 

Jurassic Park: A

The Lost World: B+
Jurassic Park 3: B-

Jurassic World: A

Fallen Kingdom: A-

 

Potential for a B or B+ for Dominion then, 79% verified currently. 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Krissykins

[Legion Again]

Th verified audience score correctly predicted around a B+ and mcu worst legs for DS2. Quite clear B/B- and JW worst legs for this one. Nothing is a perfect indicator but if you don’t think the Th verified has decent correlative value you haven’t been paying attention.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[JohnnyGossamer]

48 minutes ago, stripe said:

I still don't buy the poor WOM for JWD. People often overreact to early verified scores at RT.
Remember when DS2 opened? Online noise had people thinking it would even miss 380M DOM

 

I remember also the overreactions towards JWFK, and then the legs were not bad. This is a movie/saga that aims to an audience less vulnerable to online noise.

Agree. That said, Strange is going to finish likely between 405 and 410 which isn't actually that far off from 380.

 

Bummer to see TGM dip to 8.7M Thursday but guess that should've been expected with the premium screens gone and JWD opening.

 

Regarding JWD, some fun stuff in there but it could very well be my least favorite Jurassic movie. Just no momentum, suspense or tension the whole way through. More DeWanda Wise though. She was easily my favorite thing about it. I don't expect horrid word of mouth but would be shocked if it isn't at least very mixed.

[Issac Newton]

22 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Th verified audience score correctly predicted around a B+ and mcu worst legs for DS2. Quite clear B/B- and JW worst legs for this one. Nothing is a perfect indicator but if you don’t think the Th verified has decent correlative value you haven’t been paying attention.

$125M OW

 

Under $250M (closing) ??

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$125M OW

 

Under $250M (closing) ??

No. 
 

Fallen Kingdom had a multiplier of 2.8

 

It’s still a June release, it’s not getting a multiplier under a 2. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$125M OW

 

Under $250M (closing) ??

No. No to both actually. But, with summer days, 2.0 multiplier is pretty much unthinkable.

[Issac Newton]

Thanks, so it will be above $300M-$350M+

[Liiviig 1998]

Looking Like B/B-

 

But still maintain walk-ups this weekend should be good enough. 

 

 

JW - around  250% Fri jump 

FK - around 182% Fri jump

 

Thinking 140-150% fri jump for this due to previews starting at 3pm.

 

Father's day weekend/independence day and it tapping into a portion of that family demographic should help it's legs abit

 

140-145m OW ,380M+ DOM.