WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[Cooper Legion]

Anyway, not saying that 23M OD is credible, but if it happened:

.6

5.2

17.2

19

18 // 60

 

Right on the line imo

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, maybe $66M was a spot-on prediction from 2 days ago.  

 

Maybe I still got it.

 

Still, I agree with the PPers - that Posttrak is ugly, as was the audience breakdown for a Thursday 3pm preview start.  Only 33% families on a day with almost all schools out for the year...and it's not b/c there were sellouts...

PPers?

[krla]

27 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Lightyear postrack seems similar to Onward [A- on cinemascore]

 

Even though the movie notched great reviews at 86% certified on Rotten Tomatoes, an upbeat response from exhibition, and great PostTrak exits of 4 1/2 stars for general crowds and parents and 4 stars from kids under 12

Similar to Ghostbusters Afterlife, even the audience make-up, which was about 1/3 parents and kids <12. Parents gave Afterlife 5 stars, while kids gave it 4 1/2. I believe Afterlife got an A-, as well. 

 

But only 1/3 of the audience being families, and seemingly 1 parent to 1 child, suggests this is going to majority white audience, and likely liberal (since they have fewer children). Family films tend to have >50% of the audience as parents and children, and about 1 parent for every 2 or 3 kids. So I suspect the legs will be weak on LY. 

 

I wonder if larger families treat Top Gun as a 'family' movie like they do with Jurassic Park (fighter jets=cool like dinos=cool), and opted towards those instead? 

[PlatnumRoyce]

53 minutes ago, Juan Caballo said:

Just pure ignorance on my part but... what exactly is the bad in this specific PostTrak? 

 

Not saying it's not bad. I just don't know the historials or what is good in PostTrak

The 4 stars are much better than the 62% recommended. 
Pulling my posttrak database, I see 48 films with an explicit posttrak rec of 60-64% by end of OW including Boxtrolls, Jungle Cruise, Screem, Lost City, Tom and Jerry, It, Uncharted, Cruella, No Time to Die, XMen Apocalypse, Kong: Skull Island, FB: Secrets of Dumbledore, Ambulance, Doctor Sleep, Angel has fallen, The Suicide Squad (2021), The King's Man, Good Boys, Joker, Birds of Prey, Many saints of Newark, Quiet Place 2, Eternals, and Zombeland 2

I don't know if I'd classify it as a true  "yikes" but the best kids movie comp appears to be Tom and Jerry.

It's more complicated because lots of posttrak data only contains either recommended or % positive based on time when the film was released so there may be more relevant comps I'd need to track down. 

[Brainbug]

Anything over 60M for the 3-Day weekend should guarantee Lightyear beeing #1. I dont see Dominion going higher than roughly 56-57,5M with a 15M Friday which was the last high end estimate of EC.

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Anything over 60M for the 3-Day weekend should guarantee Lightyear beeing #1. I dont see Dominion going higher than roughly 56-57,5M with a 15M Friday which was the last high end estimate of EC.

Imagine if Dominion just squeezed by number 1 again? That would be the dream.

[Bigscrubnus]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Imagine if Dominion just squeezed by number 1 again? That would be the dream.

I’d die of laughter. I don’t have anything against Lightyear, but it would just be hilarious, you know?

 

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

10 minutes ago, krla said:

Similar to Ghostbusters Afterlife, even the audience make-up, which was about 1/3 parents and kids <12. Parents gave Afterlife 5 stars, while kids gave it 4 1/2. I believe Afterlife got an A-, as well. 

 

But only 1/3 of the audience being families, and seemingly 1 parent to 1 child, suggests this is going to majority white audience, and likely liberal (since they have fewer children). Family films tend to have >50% of the audience as parents and children, and about 1 parent for every 2 or 3 kids. So I suspect the legs will be weak on LY. 

 

I wonder if larger families treat Top Gun as a 'family' movie like they do with Jurassic Park (fighter jets=cool like dinos=cool), and opted towards those instead? 

but better than Onward because Deadline notable refused to give any aggregate data for onward implying that it's likely lower than an aggregate 4/5 stars

[filmlover]

I wonder if they're taking into account strong night business because it's selling good well into the night (rare for an animated movie) around here. Could be a good sign for staying power if it's playing to a broad audience.

[PlatnumRoyce]

31 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Small sample size but what was Cars 3’s postrack?

66% positive which based on films with similar % positive implies a % recommended of somewhere in the 40s (I'd say 45 but comps are between 38-52 %)

Edited June 18, 2022 by PlatnumRoyce
update math

[LonePirate]

Judging from my experience seeing it in IMAX today, Lightyear is going to underperform dramatically and probably deservedly so. The showing I attended wasn't even 20% full.

 

As for the movie, the first third is excellent. Truly great stuff that drew on some terrific scenes from another Pixar movie from years back and non-Disney movie from a few years back as well. The middle third is fine - typical animated and action movie stuff. Then the final third arrives with a thud.

 

That final third contains a plot twist that is so WTF that it pretty much kills any goodwill from the first two thirds. Even worse, the twist is largely unexplained and completely unnecessary because it only makes people angry. Before the movie ended, I had thought of three different alternatives to explain the twist that didn't make the movie worse. Whoever greenlit the twist needs to stay away from all future Pixar movies. 

 

I hate to say it but this film should have bypassed theaters and gone directly to Disney+.

[The Dark Alfred]

We have to wait and see what TGM numbers look like but very good chance it climbs to the #1 spot next weekdays and finishes #2 behind Elvis next weekend. Will be way past 500m going into 4th of July. Holy Cannoli.

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

PPers?

Previous Posters - sorry, different board's lingo:).

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Judging from my experience seeing it in IMAX today, Lightyear is going to underperform dramatically and probably deservedly so. The showing I attended wasn't even 20% full.

 

As for the movie, the first third is excellent. Truly great stuff that drew on some terrific scenes from another Pixar movie from years back and non-Disney movie from a few years back as well. The middle third is fine - typical animated and action movie stuff. Then the final third arrives with a thud.

 

That final third contains a plot twist that is so WTF that it pretty much kills any goodwill from the first two thirds. Even worse, the twist is largely unexplained and completely unnecessary because it only makes people angry. Before the movie ended, I had thought of three different alternatives to explain the twist that didn't make the movie worse. Whoever greenlit the twist needs to stay away from all future Pixar movies. 

 

I hate to say it but this film should have bypassed theaters and gone directly to Disney+.

I personally really liked the twist and thought it made sense.

[Liiviig 1998]

0.6m

5.2

17.2

21

19/63m . That would be enough for 1 weekend.

Best case 66-67m

 

Postrak is not good enough for a pixar movie. (A-) and this will need all the legs it can get.

 

 

[ringedmortality]

7 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

non-Disney movie from a few years back as well.

Gravity

[M37]

25 minutes ago, krla said:

Similar to Ghostbusters Afterlife, even the audience make-up, which was about 1/3 parents and kids <12. Parents gave Afterlife 5 stars, while kids gave it 4 1/2. I believe Afterlife got an A-, as well. 

 

But only 1/3 of the audience being families, and seemingly 1 parent to 1 child, suggests this is going to majority white audience, and likely liberal (since they have fewer children). Family films tend to have >50% of the audience as parents and children, and about 1 parent for every 2 or 3 kids. So I suspect the legs will be weak on LY. 

 

I wonder if larger families treat Top Gun as a 'family' movie like they do with Jurassic Park (fighter jets=cool like dinos=cool), and opted towards those instead? 

Meanwhile, Sonic (per Deadline)

 

Demos were 61% guys, 39% women with 32% under 17, and 46% between 18-34 years old. Diversity demos showed a strong turnout among Latino and Hispanic audiences of 38%, Caucasian at 29%, 20% Black and 13% Asian/other. Sonic was great everywhere, but showed power on the coasts and in the South.

 

Fwiw, I’m expecting Minions to align more with Sonic, open higher but also drop down relatively quickly 

[LonePirate]

6 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Gravity

 

That's not the movie I was thinking of and the possible Gravity-inspired scene is near the end of the movie and not the beginning.

[krla]

11 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

We have to wait and see what TGM numbers look like but very good chance it climbs to the #1 spot next weekdays and finishes #2 behind Elvis next weekend. Will be way past 500m going into 4th of July. Holy Cannoli.

Next weekend could have a tight top 5, with #1 and #5 within about $10m of each other. 

[YM!]

@EmpireCity @RthMav @charlie Jatinder and @Cap cause she loves some Evans, here is your sacrifice as we require knowledge if the 23m Friday rumors are true.